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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide



 
 
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  #1  
Old April 28th 17, 12:54 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

OK, it's official. NASA has owned up to the claim by GAO that there
is no way they can have first flight of SLS/Orion in 2018, whether it
is manned or not.

NASA had been claiming that first flight would be in November of 2018.
However, they've now agreed that that is simply going to be
impossible. The ESA Service Module won't deliver until at least
August of this year and it will take a full year of integration and
test once it delivers before a complete Orion vehicle can be delivered
for SLS integration. They require at least four months of vehicle
integration at the Cape after they receive a complete Orion vehicle.

So even if the other schedule challenges (ground infrastructure,
mission support) evaporate, EM-1 won't launch until first quarter
2019. In actuality, NASA is not going to set a new schedule until
this September (at which point they'll know whether ESA met the August
delivery date).

Issues are even larger for a manned mission. I read recently that
NASA has a space suit problem (as in they don't have any that are
suitable). NASA currently has eleven working space suits, four of
which are on ISS and the rest of which are used to support those four
with test and such. After several hundred million dollars spent, NASA
has no follow-on suits. They trying to build something out of old
Space Shuttle suits to cover things in the interim.

Is this any way to run a high tech effort? This sounds like what I've
seen on all too many projects, where no one wants to admit to needing
a slide until they absolutely cannot avoid it and then they take the
minimum slide possible. What this means is nobody else can adjust
their development to a new longer schedule, so things get taken out to
make schedule then there isn't time to put them back when the slide
becomes official, so you get a death spiral of a thousand small cuts.


--
"We come into the world and take our chances.
Fate is just the weight of circumstances.
That's the way that Lady Luck dances.
Roll the bones...."
-- "Roll The Bones", Rush
  #2  
Old April 29th 17, 08:47 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

JF Mezei wrote:

On 2017-04-28 07:54, Fred J. McCall wrote:

OK, it's official. NASA has owned up to the claim by GAO that there
is no way they can have first flight of SLS/Orion in 2018, whether it
is manned or not.


Oh my God ! Nobody saw that coming. What a surprise !


I sometimes wonder if you would see a train coming in a tunnel.


If the first flight is sufficiently delayed, doesn't that incrtease the
odds that it might be manned?


Why would it? If you're going to take a slide, the last thing you
want to do is make it even bigger and higher risk, which is what
flying EM-1 manned would do. I'd say it LOWERS the odds that it will
be manned.


NASA may have been smart is dicussing "first flight may be manned" ahead
of admitting first flight is to be delayed. This makes it easier to
swallow if first flight will be more if delatyed than if it were on-time.


NASA didn't do that. NASA was ORDERED to EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY by
the White House. You don't recover schedule by adding new big
requirements to a test flight, which is what you're proposing. You
recover schedule by DROPPING requirements and capabilities and pushing
them out to later tests.

Think about it. They're not even going to reevaluate the schedule for
almost half a year. That mean everyone is working toward ... what
date?

You got the "after several hundred million dollars NASA has no space
suits", right?


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn
  #4  
Old April 29th 17, 01:59 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

In article om,
says...

On 2017-04-28 07:54, Fred J. McCall wrote:
OK, it's official. NASA has owned up to the claim by GAO that there
is no way they can have first flight of SLS/Orion in 2018, whether it
is manned or not.


Oh my God ! Nobody saw that coming. What a surprise !


If the first flight is sufficiently delayed, doesn't that incrtease the
odds that it might be manned?


Absolutely not. It would take far longer to certify the upper stage and
put all the ground infrastructure in place needed for manned flights.
EM-1 will be unmanned, unless the Administration wants to wait years
more instead of months more.


NASA may have been smart is dicussing "first flight may be manned" ahead
of admitting first flight is to be delayed. This makes it easier to
swallow if first flight will be more if delatyed than if it were on-time.


This "idea" almost certainly came from clueless people in Trump's
administration. Like good little managers, the NASA people said
something like "we'll look into it" knowing full well that they wouldn't
like the huge delay it would cause.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #5  
Old April 30th 17, 03:50 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

In article om,
says...

On 2017-04-29 08:59, Jeff Findley wrote:

Absolutely not. It would take far longer to certify the upper stage and
put all the ground infrastructure in place needed for manned flights.



So they build a whole brand spanking new rocket system to send people to
nowhere and it isn't designed to be man-rated from the get go, so they
intend to build a version and then change the designs to make it man rated?


The first flight will use an Interim Upper Stage derived from Delta IV
(I believe). It's not the stage intended to be used for any manned
launches.

If that is truly the case, the contractors are smarter than I thought
(at convincing govt to spend money over far more years than necessary).


No, it's due to the fact that the "real" SLS upper stage was known to be
very late (years ago), so the "early" first flight simply could not use
it. Because this Interim Upper Stage would never fly manned, it was
never certified for manned flight.

This "idea" almost certainly came from clueless people in Trump's
administration.


Didn't the seeds for first flight being manned come before jan 20th?


I am unsure of the timing, but it surely came from President (Elect)
Trump's transition team.

or perhaps this was pre-emptive. If you fear the new inexperienced and
rash guy is going to make impulsive decision to kill off programme, you
send trial balloon that the delay will allow first flight to be manned
(an improvement instead of a failure to launch on time).


Yea, no, that's not what happened. NASA management is sometimes
clueless, but they surely had some idea of how big of a delay a manned
EM-1 would cause. Because of this, they wouldn't have proposed this
internally. They want to fly this thing "soon", even if it's not the
"final" configuration (i.e. using a one-off Interim Upper Stage).

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #6  
Old April 30th 17, 04:25 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Posts: 10,018
Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

JF Mezei wrote:

On 2017-04-29 03:47, Fred J. McCall wrote:

Why would it? If you're going to take a slide, the last thing you
want to do is make it even bigger and higher risk, which is what
flying EM-1 manned would do. I'd say it LOWERS the odds that it will
be manned.


Consider 2 separate development tracks: one for the ship, one for the
manned portion (Capsule interiors, ECLSS etc).


Consider Pure ****ing Magic (PFM), because engineering development and
integration efforts don't quite work like that.


Ship portion is late, but manned portion is on time. So what if the
manned portion ends up being ready by the time the ship portion finally
gets ready ?

If ship was initially supposed to be ready 2 years ahead of manned, but
there is a 2 year delay with the ship, then by the time the ship is
ready, the manned portion woudl also be ready.


Then your schedule slides because all your integration and test slides
to the end of the longest component.


Now, if both tracks are late, then things remain as originally planned
since ship, despite delays, is still ready before manned.


No, they don't do that at all. Everything has slid. The order things
are done in has probably changed. Requirements have been dropped in
order to try to make schedule (not added).

EM-1 will not be manned unless it slides out to 2021, about where EM-2
is currently scheduled. So you can have EM-1 unmanned if you slide to
2019 and adding the manned requirement adds at least another two year
slide.


--
"Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the
truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
-- Thomas Jefferson
  #7  
Old April 30th 17, 04:53 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Posts: 10,018
Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

JF Mezei wrote:

On 2017-04-29 08:59, Jeff Findley wrote:

Absolutely not. It would take far longer to certify the upper stage and
put all the ground infrastructure in place needed for manned flights.


So they build a whole brand spanking new rocket system to send people to
nowhere and it isn't designed to be man-rated from the get go, so they
intend to build a version and then change the designs to make it man rated?


You're an idiot. Do you not know what 'certify' means? It doesn't
matter whether it was "designed to be man-rated" or not. You still
have to actually do the work to man-rate it.


If that is truly the case, the contractors are smarter than I thought
(at convincing govt to spend money over far more years than necessary).


No, the issue is that you are far stupider than it is reasonable to
think you should be.



This "idea" almost certainly came from clueless people in Trump's
administration.


Didn't the seeds for first flight being manned come before jan 20th?


No. NASA announced it was going to study it in mid-February.

snip rationale to explain something that never happened


--
"Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the
truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
-- Thomas Jefferson
  #8  
Old April 30th 17, 09:00 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Posts: 10,018
Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

JF Mezei wrote:

On 2017-04-29 22:50, Jeff Findley wrote:

The first flight will use an Interim Upper Stage derived from Delta IV
(I believe). It's not the stage intended to be used for any manned
launches.


Ok, so that is a show stopper for first flight being manned.


Also the whole "we have no space suits" thing. Also the "we don't
have the required Deep Space communications or support networks in
place. Also the whole "the ground facilities aren't set up to launch
people right now" thing. I'm sure there are lots more, but any one of
those ought to be enough for you.


How late is the man-rated second stage? Is that the critical item that
will end up delying manned flight?


They won't have space suits until around 5 months before EM-2 is
scheduled.


For the first flight, the capsule will be the only habitable volume,
right? no attached pressurized module for extra space?


What difference does that make?


Are Orion and the european service modules going well from a schedule
point of view? (or is the service module the second stage?)


Everybody is playing Schedule Chicken right now.



Yea, no, that's not what happened. NASA management is sometimes
clueless, but they surely had some idea of how big of a delay a manned
EM-1 would cause.


But they would know the "fresh out of poolitical grade school" new admin
was very impulsive but gullible. So instead of announcing just a delay
that might get Trump to kill NASA on impulse, they announce that by
adding a small delay, they can do a first flight manned.


Except they can't and they know they can't, so your way of thinking
essentially has them committing suicide by lying to the President of
the United States.


It sugar coats the bad news to reduce risk of negative fallout. And it
seems to have worked because not only has NASA escape big cuts, but
Trump has, on a number of occasions spoken highly of NASA.


You keep coming up with rationalizations to explain events that didn't
happen in the order you're trying to explain. NASA knows they won't
have space suits until 2021.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn
  #9  
Old May 1st 17, 02:43 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

In article om,
says...

On 2017-04-30 04:00, Fred J. McCall wrote:

Also the whole "we have no space suits" thing.


Go back to watch "From the Earth to the Moon". Where there is a will,
there is a budget to get it doen quickly enough.


Apollo/Saturn funding was a was a proxy war with the Soviet Union during
the Cold War. There is *nothing* like that today. China's manned space
program is repeating feats that the US and Soviet Union performed in the
1960s and 1970s, so they're still half a century behind.

What is wrong with ACER and Shuttle/station suits that couldn't be used
for first manned flight?


ACES is only a launch/entry suit. The problem is lack of EVA suits.
And there are precious few functioning shuttle EMUs.

If NASA is just spending Pork money on R&D for totally new suits,
perhaps it needs to stop and just use existing suits, unless something
terribly wrong/incompatible has been identified.


The problem is for the money spent, they don't have actual suits. They
have some technology demonstrators, not actual EVA suits.

Also the "we don't
have the required Deep Space communications or support networks in
place.


Since the flights are just a spin around the block which doesn't even
include a weekend camping stop on the moon, do we even need a deep space
communication network?

I know that the origianl deep space dishes in westernm Australia
(Carnarvon) have been decommissioned, one destroyed, the other a
museum), but surely there are others that can be used ?





Also the whole "the ground facilities aren't set up to launch
people right now" thing.


And why aren't they ready? Nasa began to "convert" the shuttle pad right
after the last flight. How come it woudn't be ready by now. It isn't as
if NASA never built such structures, they built them for the Apollo
programme. And they might even be able to re-use the rotating arm/white
room frm Shuttle era if re-installed at the right elevation.

More and more, it looks to me like PORL boondogle where even NASA has
known this was just a "make work" project to keep politicians and ATK
happy without any expectations of it ever doing anything useful, so no
urgency in getting things done.

Now that they are afrraid the project might get cut because it is so
ludicrous, they are waking up to years of working without a purpose and
wondering hwo to get something deliverable.


Bitching and moaning isn't going to solve the problem that NASA ****ed
away a crap ton of money since the shuttle program ended with little to
show for it (little flying anyway). Pad 39-B isn't ready for manned
SLS/Orion flights, end of story. There are no replacements for the
EMUs. There are no landers, HAB modules, fuel depots, and etc.

But, we've still got ISS.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #10  
Old May 1st 17, 11:12 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 2,307
Default NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide

In article ,
says...

In article om,
says...

On 2017-04-30 04:00, Fred J. McCall wrote:

Also the whole "we have no space suits" thing.


Go back to watch "From the Earth to the Moon". Where there is a will,
there is a budget to get it doen quickly enough.


Apollo/Saturn funding was a was a proxy war with the Soviet Union during
the Cold War. There is *nothing* like that today. China's manned space
program is repeating feats that the US and Soviet Union performed in the
1960s and 1970s, so they're still half a century behind.

What is wrong with ACER and Shuttle/station suits that couldn't be used
for first manned flight?


ACES is only a launch/entry suit. The problem is lack of EVA suits.
And there are precious few functioning shuttle EMUs.


Also, EMUs aren't a good choice at all for exploring planetary surfaces.
From a recent Aviation Week article on the subject:

In use far beyond its 15-year design life, however, the EMU lacks
the hip joint mechanism to support the mobility needed for frequent
spacewalks on planetary surfaces like Mars or the Moon.

Link:

http://aviationweek.com/space/nasa-s...pacesuit-needs

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
 




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