Japan admits its Mars probe is failing

Japan admits its Mars probe is failing
After weeks of uncertainty, space agency says team is struggling with Nozomi
’s power system glitch

http://www.msnbc.com/news/996466.asp

By James Oberg, NBC NEWS SPACE ANALYST

Nov 21 -- After months of silence and a week of hopeful half-truths,
Japanese space officials have finally confirmed that their Mars-bound Nozomi
probe is teetering on the brink of failure in its five-year quest to explore
the Red Planet.

During this voyage it became the first human space vehicle to make an
Earth-Mars-Earth round trip after navigation and power problems thwarted
original plans. Ingenious flight planning and fine-tuned space navigation
gave the probe an unprecedented second chance to reach Mars. But that
genuine 'space odyssey' now appears doomed.

A statement released Friday in Tokyo by JAXA – the newly-formed Japanese
Aerospace Exploration Agency, created from three formerly separate
organizations -- described how the probe ”right now is under ‘the last
challenge’ to repair its malfunction . . . which must be concentrated [on]
by all [the] task force of scientists and engineers of [the] mission team
until its outcome is clearly known.”

This concentration was offered as explanation for why nobody previously had
any time to tell the public what was really going on. “As long as [the]
‘NOZOMI’ team is at work,” the statement read, “please give us a little more
time until around Dec.10. When final result is known, we are ready to
explain everything
plainly.”

Spaceflight operations veterans have told msnbc.com that refusing to give up
despite the odds is a proper approach. However, they expressed dismay at
Japan’s lack of candor with the public – especially as it may raise false
hopes that will be later be dashed.

Last week, the mission's project manager, Hajime Hayakawa, told a reporter
in Tokyo that his team still was trying to fix the probe’s malfunctioning
electrical circuits. But he admitted that “If we can't fix Nozomi's problems
in time, it is very likely that it won't be able to enter Mars' orbit." He
added, "At this point, we don't know the percentage of its chance of
successfully entering into a Mars orbit."

And Professor Ichiro Nakatani, the spacecraft manager, assured the American
organization, “The Planetary Society”, "Nozomi is just on the right orbit to
reach Mars on December 14 (JST)." However, he added hopefully, "It is true
that we have a problem with one of the subsystems and we are now in the
process of recovery operation."

Neither official provided assessments of the likelihood of a successful
recovery. But according to the Associated Press, Firouz Naderi, NASA’s
manager of the Mars Exploration Program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in
Pasadena, told reporters on Monday that Nozomi "most probably won't make
it." He was further quoted as saying, "The obituary is not out yet but you
can hardly detect a pulse now."

Sources within the planetary science community have told msnbc.com that the
probe’s power control system was severely damaged by a solar flare a year
and a half ago. This prevents the probe from sending science data, and from
operating propellant tank heaters to keep the liquids from freezing as it
recedes from the Sun. This in turn would prevent the main rocket firing
designed to slow down the probe and place it into orbit around Mars.

Beginning last summer, Japanese ground control engineers have been sending
repeated commands to the power control system in hopes that eventually it
will shift into a configuration that can accept and obey the commands. After
thousands of radioed commands from Earth, the probe remained unresponsive.
Not even foreign scientists with instruments aboard the probe were informed
of the progress of this recovery attempt.

At a space conference in Houston earlier this week, Mr. Masato Koyama, JAXA’
s Washington Office director, finally rated the prospects for the recovery
effort. “It’s hard to recover the system,” he told the audience in response
to a direct question about the probe’s status. He told conferees he did not
think the recovery would succeed.

Today’s official JAXA statement denied one Tokyo press report that probe was
doomed to impact Mars and possibly contaminate the planet contrary to an
international ‘space quarantine’ treaty. “The truth is that ‘NOZOMI’ will,
if going as it is, approach Mars on December 14 by 894 km passing above
Martian surface at its closest approach,” the statement said, “but there
would not be excluded a theoretical possibility of colliding with Mars by
more or less one percent, if we take the error of orbit determination into
account.”

“If not restored,” the statement continued, “we will try to adjust the
closest approach as far as possible from 894km. In this case, ‘NOZOMI’ will,
after once approaching Mars, escape from Martian gravitational sphere to
become an artificial planet going around the orbit of the sun forever.”

Onboard the probe is an aluminum plate etched with the names of people who
responded to a pre-launch campaign, "Send your names to Mars!" Instead of
reaching Mars, the statement concluded, “The names of 270,000 people will
keep on circling around the sun for hundreds of million years.”

Nozomi was launched in mid-1998 and first flew past Mars late the following
year. However, it was unable to enter its planned survey orbit, and instead
had to circle back around the Sun, fly past Earth twice to shift its orbit,
and then head for Mars a second time.

JAXA’s statement showed that controllers have not yet given up hope for
‘Nozomi’ (which actually means ‘hope’ in Japanese). “We believe what the
mission team can do is not to give up, but to do the best until the very
last moment.” They will not admit defeat until December 9th, five days
before the scheduled arrival, when a small rocket burn planned to trim the
approach path would instead be used to divert the probe as far away from
Mars as possible.

So for now, neither the Nozomi probe, nor the hopes of its operators and the
thousands of ordinary Japanese whose names are carried on it, are yet
irretrievably lost.


Full JAXA statement on Nozomi Status
http://www.isas.ac.jp/e/snews/2003/1120.shtml

Official Nozomi Home Page:
http://www.isas.ac.jp/e/enterp/missi...mi/index.shtml

News story at ‘The Planetary Society’:
http://www.planetarysociety.org/html..._11-14-03.html

Astronomy magazine background story:
http://www.astronomy.com/Content/Dyn...1/558wdazd.asp

Nozomi’s Orbital Flight Path:
www.phys.ucalgary.ca/satellites/ html/b_orbits.html

AP story (Nov 17):
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...344EST0236.DTL





Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
Tokyo, Japan

Status of Japan's Mars Explorer "NOZOMI"
2003/11/20 Update

Some of you might have read a report of a newspaper; "NOZOMI, Japanese made
Mars
exploration probe is to collide with Mars".

But this description is not correct. The truth is that "NOZOMI" will, if
going
as it is, approach Mars on December 14 by 894km passing above Martian
surface at
its closest approach, but there would not be excluded a theoretical
possibility
of colliding with Mars by more or less one percent, if we take the error of
orbit determination into account.

The international organization called "COSPAR" representing worldwide space
science organs defines "Planetary Protection Policy" as special protective
measure that provides for regulating a percentage possibility below one
percent
of falling upon Mars, within twenty years after the launch, for Mars
orbiting
satellites inadequately sterilized. On the other hand, from the standpoint
of
observing Mars, it is naturally better to get closer to Mars as much as
possible, which means, therefore, the closest distance of 894km is
marginally
and most appropriately set for probe trajectory to take.

As you may know, however, "NOZOMI" right now is under "the last challenge"
to
repair its malfunction of which must be concentrated by all task force of
scientists and engineers of "NOZOMI" mission team until its outcome is
clearly
known. Upon recovering from the damage, we will then work on putting the
probe
to orbit around Mars and resume its exploration. Unfortunately, if not
restored,
we will try to adjust the closest approach as far as possible from 894km. In
this case, "NOZOMI" will, after once approaching Mars, escape from Martian
gravitational sphere to become an artificial planet going around the orbit
of
the sun forever. As many of you may know, onboard "NOZOMI" is mounted an
aluminum plate etched with the names of 270,000 people who applied for the
pre-launch campaign, "Send your names to Mars!" The names of 270,000 people
will
keep on circling around the sun for hundreds of million years.

As long as "NOZOMI" team is at work, please give us a little more time until
around Dec.10. When final result is known, we are ready to explain
everything
plainly to you and offer our sincere feeling and thinking.

We believe what the mission team can do is not to give up but to do the best
until the very last moment toward responding the expectation of the people
including those who kindly left their desires to this spacecraft.

_

"JimO" wrote in message .. .
Japan admits its Mars probe is failing
After weeks of uncertainty, space agency says team is struggling with Nozomi
?s power system glitch

http://www.msnbc.com/news/996466.asp

By James Oberg, NBC NEWS SPACE ANALYST

Nov 21 -- After months of silence and a week of hopeful half-truths,
Japanese space officials have finally confirmed that their Mars-bound Nozomi
probe is teetering on the brink of failure in its five-year quest to explore
the Red Planet.

During this voyage it became the first human space vehicle to make an
Earth-Mars-Earth round trip after navigation and power problems thwarted
original plans. Ingenious flight planning and fine-tuned space navigation
gave the probe an unprecedented second chance to reach Mars. But that
genuine 'space odyssey' now appears doomed.

Of course, the biggest negative effect of this will not be the loss to
information about Mars. Nozomi had little to offer that current Mars
orbiters haven't already shown us. The biggest effect will be to make
any Mars Sample Return mission in the future vastly more difficult.
After all, the quarantiners will say, if Nozomi can fail and plow into
Mars, possibly spreading earth bacteria, what's to prevent a Mars
return vehicle from doing the same thing to earth, resulting in
AAAAAAHHHH! The Andromeda Strain!

The result will raise the cost of Mars Sample Return for redundancy,
and realistically probably prevent it from happening for the
forseeable future.

Tom Merkle

(Tom Merkle) writes:

[...]

After all, the quarantiners will say, if Nozomi can fail and plow into
Mars, possibly spreading earth bacteria, what's to prevent a Mars
return vehicle from doing the same thing to earth, resulting in
AAAAAAHHHH! The Andromeda Strain!

The result will raise the cost of Mars Sample Return for redundancy,
and realistically probably prevent it from happening for the
forseeable future.

Anything CAN fail, and there is currently estimated to be a 1%
probability of Nozomi hitting Mars if it continues on its present
course. Its controllers plan to try to lower this chance if (as seems
all but certain) attempts fail to get its power supply working to the
point it can power the heaters to thaw the frozen propellant to allow
Mars orbit insertion (and power the instruments to allow Nozomi to
perform any science). The chances of them doing this by using the small
(but still functional) mid-course correction engines are better than the
all-but-zero chance of them recovering the power supply, so the chance
of Nozomi hitting Mars is realistically less than that 1% estimate.

If Nozomi doesn't hit Mars, I don't forsee the Chicken Littles
succeeding in preventing a Mars sample return mission. Even if it does
hit Mars, the C.L.'s chance of success is, I think, not terribly great
-- I expect the space science community would be able to rally more
support that the C.L.s. IMHO, of course.

In article ,
Tom Merkle wrote:
After all, the quarantiners will say, if Nozomi can fail and plow into
Mars, possibly spreading earth bacteria, what's to prevent a Mars
return vehicle from doing the same thing to earth, resulting in
AAAAAAHHHH! The Andromeda Strain!

Under current design notions, the only (possible) Mars bugs aboard the
return vehicle will be within its sample capsule, which will be designed
for reentry and smashdown (undecelerated landing -- no parachute to fail)
anyway. No other part of the return vehicle will actually have been on
the surface of Mars; the sample can gets transferred from ascent vehicle
to return vehicle in Mars orbit.
--
MOST launched 30 June; first light, 29 July; 5arcsec | Henry Spencer
pointing, 10 Sept; first science, early Oct; all well. |

Chris Jones wrote in message ...
(Tom Merkle) writes:

[...]

After all, the quarantiners will say, if Nozomi can fail and plow into
Mars, possibly spreading earth bacteria, what's to prevent a Mars
return vehicle from doing the same thing to earth, resulting in
AAAAAAHHHH! The Andromeda Strain!

The result will raise the cost of Mars Sample Return for redundancy,
and realistically probably prevent it from happening for the
forseeable future.

Anything CAN fail, and there is currently estimated to be a 1%
probability of Nozomi hitting Mars if it continues on its present
course. Its controllers plan to try to lower this chance if (as seems
ah. Well, that's good news at least.
all but certain) attempts fail to get its power supply working to the
point it can power the heaters to thaw the frozen propellant to allow
Mars orbit insertion (and power the instruments to allow Nozomi to
perform any science). The chances of them doing this by using the small
(but still functional) mid-course correction engines are better than the
all-but-zero chance of them recovering the power supply, so the chance
of Nozomi hitting Mars is realistically less than that 1% estimate.

If Nozomi doesn't hit Mars, I don't forsee the Chicken Littles
succeeding in preventing a Mars sample return mission. Even if it does
hit Mars, the C.L.'s chance of success is, I think, not terribly great
-- I expect the space science community would be able to rally more
support that the C.L.s. IMHO, of course.

Sure, except some of the Chicken Littles are right where they can do
the most damage--at NASA. I think it's likely that NASA's own
misguided efforts to make a sample return utterly "failsafe" will
price the mission cost right out of range. That's likelier than the
quasi-scientific media C.L.s preventing NASA from launching what it
wants to launch (since they already failed to prevent Cassini or
Galileo).

Tom Merkle

In article ,
(Tom Merkle) wrote:

Chris Jones wrote in message
...

If Nozomi doesn't hit Mars, I don't forsee the Chicken Littles
succeeding in preventing a Mars sample return mission. Even if it does
hit Mars, the C.L.'s chance of success is, I think, not terribly great
-- I expect the space science community would be able to rally more
support that the C.L.s. IMHO, of course.

Sure, except some of the Chicken Littles are right where they can do
the most damage--at NASA. I think it's likely that NASA's own
misguided efforts to make a sample return utterly "failsafe" will
price the mission cost right out of range. That's likelier than the
quasi-scientific media C.L.s preventing NASA from launching what it
wants to launch (since they already failed to prevent Cassini or
Galileo).

Poor old NASA! It can't seem to satisfy anybody.

When it ignores the warnings of the "Chicken Littles" about spacecraft
safety it gets damned for allowing Columbia to burn and crash. When it
tries to pay those warnings due heed it gets damned again for being
*too* safety conscious! :-)

--
Stephen Souter

http://www.edfac.usyd.edu.au/staff/souters/

On Sun, 23 Nov 2003 17:05:53 +1100, in a place far, far away, Stephen
Souter made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Poor old NASA! It can't seem to satisfy anybody.

When it ignores the warnings of the "Chicken Littles" about spacecraft
safety it gets damned for allowing Columbia to burn and crash. When it
tries to pay those warnings due heed it gets damned again for being
*too* safety conscious!

But not by the same people.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

(Henry Spencer) wrote in message ...
In article ,
Tom Merkle wrote:
After all, the quarantiners will say, if Nozomi can fail and plow into
Mars, possibly spreading earth bacteria, what's to prevent a Mars
return vehicle from doing the same thing to earth, resulting in
AAAAAAHHHH! The Andromeda Strain!

Under current design notions, the only (possible) Mars bugs aboard the
return vehicle will be within its sample capsule, which will be designed
for reentry and smashdown (undecelerated landing -- no parachute to fail)
anyway. No other part of the return vehicle will actually have been on
the surface of Mars; the sample can gets transferred from ascent vehicle
to return vehicle in Mars orbit.

Yes, and on NASA's own website, they're talking about sealing the
capsule by developing remote robotic welding that takes place in Mars
orbit to ensure an entirely airtight seal. That's all. How simple! How
cheap!

See what I mean about overkill? Does that seem reasonable?

There's a balance principle in biology that makes it virtually
impossible for an organism that evolves on a world as small and devoid
of resources as Mars to develop something that is devastating to the
very robust earth's biosphere. The vector just moves in the wrong
direction. Evolution just doesn't work that way. It's remotely
possible that something that came from Mars would be mildly successful
in our environment--but that's it. Even the examples that NASA's
'caution' document have of successful 'species invasions', the vector
moves from the more robust, open environment, to the less open, less
robust environment. This is why the majority of species invasions that
you hear about take place in the New World. Australia has it worst,
America second worst, remote Pacific Islands the third... but you
rarely hear about species invasions in Africa or Asia. Why? Africa and
Asia both are bigger, more robust, have more species. African, Asian,
and European species are the ones doing the invading.

We have nothing to fear from Mars. It's the Martians who should fear
us.

Tom Merkle

Tom, your argument seems reasonable. However, I can't help but think of the
Hudson River analogy. If a fish is tough enough to live there, it's a
really tough son-of-a-gun. Given the stakes, it is prudent to quarantine
extraterrestrial biological samples.

-- Stinger

"Tom Merkle" wrote in message
m...
(Henry Spencer) wrote in message
...
In article ,
Tom Merkle wrote:
After all, the quarantiners will say, if Nozomi can fail and plow into
Mars, possibly spreading earth bacteria, what's to prevent a Mars
return vehicle from doing the same thing to earth, resulting in
AAAAAAHHHH! The Andromeda Strain!

Under current design notions, the only (possible) Mars bugs aboard the
return vehicle will be within its sample capsule, which will be designed
for reentry and smashdown (undecelerated landing -- no parachute to
fail)
anyway. No other part of the return vehicle will actually have been on
the surface of Mars; the sample can gets transferred from ascent vehicle
to return vehicle in Mars orbit.

Yes, and on NASA's own website, they're talking about sealing the
capsule by developing remote robotic welding that takes place in Mars
orbit to ensure an entirely airtight seal. That's all. How simple! How
cheap!

See what I mean about overkill? Does that seem reasonable?

There's a balance principle in biology that makes it virtually
impossible for an organism that evolves on a world as small and devoid
of resources as Mars to develop something that is devastating to the
very robust earth's biosphere. The vector just moves in the wrong
direction. Evolution just doesn't work that way. It's remotely
possible that something that came from Mars would be mildly successful
in our environment--but that's it. Even the examples that NASA's
'caution' document have of successful 'species invasions', the vector
moves from the more robust, open environment, to the less open, less
robust environment. This is why the majority of species invasions that
you hear about take place in the New World. Australia has it worst,
America second worst, remote Pacific Islands the third... but you
rarely hear about species invasions in Africa or Asia. Why? Africa and
Asia both are bigger, more robust, have more species. African, Asian,
and European species are the ones doing the invading.

We have nothing to fear from Mars. It's the Martians who should fear
us.

Tom Merkle

Tom Merkle wrote:

There's a balance principle in biology that makes it virtually
impossible for an organism that evolves on a world as small and devoid
of resources as Mars to develop something that is devastating to the
very robust earth's biosphere. The vector just moves in the wrong
direction. Evolution just doesn't work that way. It's remotely
possible that something that came from Mars would be mildly successful
in our environment--but that's it. Even the examples that NASA's
'caution' document have of successful 'species invasions', the vector
moves from the more robust, open environment, to the less open, less
robust environment. This is why the majority of species invasions that
you hear about take place in the New World. Australia has it worst,
America second worst, remote Pacific Islands the third... but you
rarely hear about species invasions in Africa or Asia. Why? Africa and
Asia both are bigger, more robust, have more species. African, Asian,
and European species are the ones doing the invading.

I think your generalization makes considerable sense, but in real
life things are always more complicated. I gather that several
African lakes have had their ecosystems severely compromised by the
introduction of European sport-fishing species, which are
out-competing many of the local cichlids, threatening to drive them
to extinction. By the same token extraterrestrial organisms might
succeed in the more isolated or 'hypotrophic' terrestrial
environments: e.g. one can imagine a Martian bacterium doing well in
our high arctic or antarctic regions, to the detriment of the local
bacteria, lichens, &c.

--
Odysseus