[SEMI-OT] Chinese Kinetic ASAT Test

Gee, great.

As reported pretty much all over the web, but here's the most interesting
writeup I've yet seen:

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1359/chinese-test-asat

I haven't looked the orbital elements for the target sat, but as the Wonk
puts it, "I suspect this test will have also created a massive debris
problem."

I wonder what it's future impact might be on orbital operations as the debris
disperses?

--
You can run on for a long time,
Sooner or later, God'll cut you down.
~Johnny Cash

Herb Schaltegger wrote:
Gee, great.

As reported pretty much all over the web, but here's the most interesting
writeup I've yet seen:

http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1359/chinese-test-asat

I haven't looked the orbital elements for the target sat, but as the Wonk
puts it, "I suspect this test will have also created a massive debris
problem."


More than 30 debris objects have already been cataloged with a
considerable range of mean motions and eccentricities. (The target
satellite, Fenyung 1C, was in a 860 km circular sunsynchronous orbit,
not a bad surrogate for many spysats.)

What really interests me, as said elsewhere, is what booster was used.

Herb Schaltegger wrote:

I haven't looked the orbital elements for the target sat, but as the Wonk
puts it, "I suspect this test will have also created a massive debris
problem."


If they were smart they hit it from head-on in its orbital path so that
the net affect will be to slow it down and the debris will reenter
fairly shortly. Assuming this was a direct ascent intercept then the
interceptor may have just basicly put itself into position and let the
satellite run into it at its full orbital velocity.
I don't know what the interceptor weighed, but FY-1C weighed 950 kg:
http://ceos.cnes.fr:8100/cdrom-00b/c...y/99cgms01.htm

Pat

wrote:
What really interests me, as said elsewhere, is what booster was used.



If they are shooting to make this an operational system, they probably
want something that has a quick response time and is easily deployable
at various locations in China, so that the target satellite can be sure
to fly over one of the installations in fairly short order after the
decision to intercept it is made. Assuming you could get the tracking
and targeting gear to be mobile, the Dong Feng-31 mobile ICBM would be
ideal, if maybe overly capable for LEO direct ascent intercepts*:
http://www.aeronautics.ru/archive/wm...ic/css9-01.htm
In the rail mobile version, the tracking, targeting, and C&C gear could
be part of the train.

* Of course a GEO direct intercept would be limited to those satellites
that are approximately over you, but shooting at something that's
basically stationary in the sky shouldn't be any too hard, particularly
given that you are going to have a long time to home on it during ascent.

Pat

Pat Flannery wrote:
wrote:
What really interests me, as said elsewhere, is what booster was used.

If they are shooting to make this an operational system, they probably
want something that has a quick response time and is easily deployable
at various locations in China, so that the target satellite can be sure
to fly over one of the installations in fairly short order after the
decision to intercept it is made. Assuming you could get the tracking
and targeting gear to be mobile, the Dong Feng-31 mobile ICBM would be
ideal, if maybe overly capable for LEO direct ascent intercepts*:
http://www.aeronautics.ru/archive/wm...ic/css9-01.htm
In the rail mobile version, the tracking, targeting, and C&C gear could
be part of the train.


Yes, I have long thought that the KT-1 derivative of the DF-31 would be
just the thing if the PRC ever got serious about ASAT. If this was
such a rocket and they really have demonstrated hit-to-kill
direct-ascent capability with it, the times have suddenly gotten much
different and much more interesting.

BTW, I agree that they probably did a meeting engagement and shot
northward from Xichang with the intercept occurring in view of the
tracking facilities at Jiuquan.

wrote:

Yes, I have long thought that the KT-1 derivative of the DF-31 would be
just the thing if the PRC ever got serious about ASAT. If this was
such a rocket and they really have demonstrated hit-to-kill
direct-ascent capability with it, the times have suddenly gotten much
different and much more interesting.


I just looked up the KT-1, and yup, that would fit the bill perfectly:
http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/kt1.htm
If they do decide to make it rail or TEL mobile (I'd go with rail, as
then the whole system could travel as a organic unit) then it is a
interesting new capability.
Since the now operate Sukhoi Su-30 Flankers, they might be able to do
something like our F-15 "Celestial Eagle" direct ascent ASAT system also.

BTW, I agree that they probably did a meeting engagement and shot
northward from Xichang with the intercept occurring in view of the
tracking facilities at Jiuquan.


That would make sense; now if we can just figure out what the KKV was like.

Pat

In article om,
wrote:
"I suspect this test will have also created a massive debris problem."

More than 30 debris objects have already been cataloged with a
considerable range of mean motions and eccentricities.

By itself, not that big a deal, given that we've had satellite breakups
and upper-stage explosions before. Not an event to cheer about -- the
fewer such debris clouds in long-lived orbits, the better -- but by no
means unprecedented.
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |

Could be that Wonk and others have it backwards, and that the reason that
China did the test was to accelerate treaties to ban sat attack devices.




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"Revision" wrote in message
.. .
Could be that Wonk and others have it backwards, and that the reason that
China did the test was to accelerate treaties to ban sat attack devices.

I agree -- see NY Times today -- the target may have been to
stampede the US into a highly-restrictive 'no-space-weapons' treaty
that will have little or no impact on Russian and Chinese projects.

could the chinese be liable if a tracked debris item took out a working
satellite?

would the chinese have to pay for a replacement?

no doubt the US has this ability, just like nukes how can you really
stop a dedicated country from doing what they want?