Blue Origin's suborbital plans revealed

After years of secrecy and much speculation, Blue Origin has finally
announced its plans to build and operate a privately-funded aerospace
testing and operations center in West Texas. The company, run by
Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, is "currently developing a sub-orbital
space vehicle that will take off and land vertically to take three or
more astronauts to the edge of space." Flight operations could begin as
soon as six years from now. Hopefully this will be a significant step
towards Bezos's dream of enabling "an enduring human presence in
space."

MSNBC article: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6822763/
Original article: http://www.vanhornadvocate.com/front1.shtml
Older article on Bezos: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6451089/

In article .com,
"Neil Halelamien" wrote:

After years of secrecy and much speculation, Blue Origin has finally
announced its plans to build and operate a privately-funded aerospace
testing and operations center in West Texas. The company, run by
Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos, is "currently developing a sub-orbital
space vehicle that will take off and land vertically to take three or
more astronauts to the edge of space." Flight operations could begin as
soon as six years from now. Hopefully this will be a significant step
towards Bezos's dream of enabling "an enduring human presence in
space."

That's interesting. It sounds like they'll be directly competing with
Virgin Galactic. I'm all for competition, but it doesn't look so good
for Jeff:

Virgin Galactic:
5 passengers (plus 1 or 2 crew?)
starting in about 5 years
proof-of-concept vehicle has flown successfully
airline-style launch and landing

Blue Origins:
3 people total (including at least 1 crew, I hope?)
starting in about 6 years
no hardware built yet that we can tell
vertical launch & landing

It seems like they're going to have a hard time competing with VG,
unless they can set a much cheaper price point, or offer significantly
longer hang time.

Of course, I'm assuming here that suborbital tourism is the market for
this vehicle -- I can't imagine what else it would be that would offer
significant revenue. But perhaps that's a lack of imagination on my
part.

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I'd be interested to see if they try pursuing any sort of partnership
with Armadillo Aerospace, which has already done quite a bit of good
work with VTVL.

"Neil Halelamien" wrote:
I'd be interested to see if they try pursuing any sort of partnership
with Armadillo Aerospace, which has already done quite a bit of good
work with VTVL.

Given that Armadillo hasn't done much other than models, I can't see
any advantage for Blue Origin.

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.

-Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings.
Oct 5th, 2004 JDL

(Derek Lyons) :

"Neil Halelamien" wrote:
I'd be interested to see if they try pursuing any sort of partnership
with Armadillo Aerospace, which has already done quite a bit of good
work with VTVL.

Given that Armadillo hasn't done much other than models, I can't see
any advantage for Blue Origin.

Considering some of those so-called 'models' have already lifted people off
the ground and landed the person safely. Considering that those so-called
'models' exist and work in the real world instead of just being paper
studies. Considering that those so-called 'models' are already scaled up to
the size to already carry a single person.

Considering that Armadillo Aerospace clearly has shown it know how to do
incremental testing - Yes, Blue Origin should consider talking to them about
VTVL systems.

At present AA can design, build and test fly a VTVL system in less time than
it take NASA to do the paperwork. And considering all the safety exceptions
NASA keeps giving itself, if someone gave NASA and AA the goal to build a
VTVL craft to lanuch in one year's time I rather get on AA's craft than
NASA's.

Earl Colby Pottinger

--
I make public email sent to me! Hydrogen Peroxide Rockets, OpenBeos,
SerialTransfer 3.0, RAMDISK, BoatBuilding, DIY TabletPC. What happened to
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Earl Colby Pottinger wrote:

(Derek Lyons) :

"Neil Halelamien" wrote:
I'd be interested to see if they try pursuing any sort of partnership
with Armadillo Aerospace, which has already done quite a bit of good
work with VTVL.

Given that Armadillo hasn't done much other than models, I can't see
any advantage for Blue Origin.

Considering some of those so-called 'models' have already lifted people off
the ground and landed the person safely. Considering that those so-called
'models' exist and work in the real world instead of just being paper
studies. Considering that those so-called 'models' are already scaled up to
the size to already carry a single person.

considers... Ok, so what?

It's still a model. It's still orders of magnitude smaller than
anything useful.

Considering that Armadillo Aerospace clearly has shown it know how to do
incremental testing - Yes, Blue Origin should consider talking to them about
VTVL systems.

ROTFLMAO. I've been incrementally testing a brick oven... I guess I
should expect all the corporate bakeries across the US to come a'
knocking at my door come next week.

Oh. Wait. They probably understand the difference between models and
toys, and real working hardware.

At present AA can design, build and test fly a VTVL system in less time than
it take NASA to do the paperwork. And considering all the safety exceptions
NASA keeps giving itself, if someone gave NASA and AA the goal to build a
VTVL craft to lanuch in one year's time I rather get on AA's craft than
NASA's.

You might want to read Armadillo's website with open eyes... Their
safety and diligence record isn't too impressive.

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.

-Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings.
Oct 5th, 2004 JDL

At present AA can design, build and test fly a VTVL system in less time than
it take NASA to do the paperwork. BRBR


No offense meant to Armadillo, a dedicated and apparently competent outfit, but
because their test platforms carry people on hops a few feet above the ground
does not mean, by a long shot, they're proven they can build practical space
systems. The implication that they have the proven capability to create that
system is years from being validated.



Matt Bille
)
OPINIONS IN ALL POSTS ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR

(MattWriter) :

At present AA can design, build and test fly a VTVL system in less time
than it take NASA to do the paperwork. BRBR

No offense meant to Armadillo, a dedicated and apparently competent outfit,

None taken by me.

but because their test platforms carry people on hops a few feet above the
ground does not mean, by a long shot, they're proven they can build
practical
space systems. The implication that they have the proven capability to
create
that system is years from being validated.

Very true. But the original question was did the fact that they have been
designing, building and testing *working* designs mean that they may have
enough useful information to make it worthwhile for Blue Origin to talk to
them. My answer to that being yes. They have spent years learn how to make
a VTVL craft lift without crashing and landing also. Blue Origin has to
choice to roll thier own design (starting from day one), appoach AA and see
if AA is willing to supply/sell information/designs that may cut months to
years off thier development, or see if there is a system already for sale.
As far as I know off there is no pre-packaged guidance system available out
there for a VTVL craft. Why Derek is trying so hard to put down AA to
support his claim that there is nothing that AA can teach Blue Origin is
beyond me.

Earl Colby Pottinger

--
I make public email sent to me! Hydrogen Peroxide Rockets, OpenBeos,
SerialTransfer 3.0, RAMDISK, BoatBuilding, DIY TabletPC. What happened to
the time? http://webhome.idirect.com/~earlcp

(Derek Lyons) :

Earl Colby Pottinger wrote:

(Derek Lyons) :

"Neil Halelamien" wrote:
I'd be interested to see if they try pursuing any sort of partnership
with Armadillo Aerospace, which has already done quite a bit of good
work with VTVL.

Given that Armadillo hasn't done much other than models, I can't see
any advantage for Blue Origin.

Considering some of those so-called 'models' have already lifted people off
the ground and landed the person safely. Considering that those so-called
'models' exist and work in the real world instead of just being paper
studies. Considering that those so-called 'models' are already scaled up
to the size to already carry a single person.

considers... Ok, so what?

It's still a model. It's still orders of magnitude smaller than anything
useful.

Orders of magnitude? Since when did doubling the tank size become 'Orders of
magnitude'? Additional the larger tanks are already available for ordering.
AA is using the smaller tanks because it is cheaper to do test with them not
because they can't fly a larger design. You have not been reading thier
website I see.

Considering that Armadillo Aerospace clearly has shown it know how to do
incremental testing - Yes, Blue Origin should consider talking to them
about VTVL systems.

ROTFLMAO. I've been incrementally testing a brick oven... I guess I
should expect all the corporate bakeries across the US to come a'
knocking at my door come next week.

Oh. Wait. They probably understand the difference between models and
toys, and real working hardware.

No-one wants to look at your brick oven. Thousands of other companies have
been making them for hundreds of years already and thus have a lot more
knowledge on building brick ovens than you ever will.

On the otherhand less than half a dozen organizations in the entire world
have built working rocket propelled VTVL systems. AA is probably the leader
in low cost guidance systems for such. Unless you can name another supplier
out there for VTVL control systems that will work with rockets? BO may gain
nothing talking to AA, on the other hand they may cut months off development
if AA system is compatiable to thier's. They can not know without asking
first.

Is this how you run your projects? Do you normally decide not to talk to
people who may save you time and money because of the size of thier projects?
Seems silly way to do research to me.

At present AA can design, build and test fly a VTVL system in less time
than it takes NASA to do the paperwork. And considering all the safety
exceptions NASA keeps giving itself, if someone gave NASA and AA the
goal to build a VTVL craft to lanuch in one year's time I rather get on
AA's
craft than NASA's.

You might want to read Armadillo's website with open eyes... Their
safety and diligence record isn't too impressive.

Really, where has a single person been injuried, much less killed by AA
operations.

Better yet, show me where they have even by passed even one government safety
regulations.

The comparison to NASA should clear from the lost of the first space shuttle.
NASA's mangement by passed thier own safety officiers - Where have you seen
AA do the same?

Earl Colby Pottinger
--
I make public email sent to me! Hydrogen Peroxide Rockets, OpenBeos,
SerialTransfer 3.0, RAMDISK, BoatBuilding, DIY TabletPC. What happened to
the time? http://webhome.idirect.com/~earlcp

Earl Colby Pottinger wrote:
They have spent years learn how to make
a VTVL craft lift without crashing and landing also. Blue Origin has
to
choice to roll thier own design (starting from day one), appoach AA
and see
if AA is willing to supply/sell information/designs that may cut
months to
years off thier development, or see if there is a system already for
sale.
As far as I know off there is no pre-packaged guidance system
available out
there for a VTVL craft. Why Derek is trying so hard to put down AA
to
support his claim that there is nothing that AA can teach Blue Origin
is
beyond me.

Because it's more or less the case.

Look at where Armadillo has spent most of their effort. Propulsion
design - they still don't have a really reliable and well-characterized
rocket engine. Blue Origin can give XCor or SpaceDev or Alliant or any
number of other people a couple hundred grand and solve this problem
easily. Electronic robustness - dead batteries, burned out motor drive
electronics, connectors vibrated loose, crash-damaged equipment.
There's also a big hostile-environment electronics industry that has
this problem solved. Finally, systems and software integration stuff -
rocket runs out of fuel and crashes; sign errors in software; USB
joystick hiccups. There are a fairly large number of UAV companies out
there that have a lot of experience in this; the only difference is
that a VTVL rocket-powered craft probably has SIMPLER control laws than
what they're used to.

Armadillo has shown that it's possible to get cheap sort-of working
solutions to some aerospace engineering problems that are traditionally
solved via lots of hard work and money. But if you're going to fly
people, a sort-of working solution isn't going to cut it, and Armadillo
has not shown any skill at building something that you'd give more than
10:1 odds against turning itself into a pile of smoking wreckage on any
given flight.

-jake