Malthusian Theory and Travel Beyond Earth Orbit

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 19:09:42 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .

There will be no extinction causing meteor strike any time soon.

Can't say that with any certainty at all.

My friend 'random odds' goes a long way. For one large strike each 10
million years, then you can work out your own odds of it happening
within the next year.

I suggest you do. Particularly the odds on it affecting you.

Funny how all my books have not rotted away...

Not at all. Leave them in your garden shed with an open door for a year.

As I said I am not an idiot...

All of which is irrelvent to the scenario's we're discussing.

Maybe I should get out my ZX Spectrum from my cold, dark loft, which
is not unlike this future world.

Tried using it recently?

A couple of years ago I powered it up and even loaded a couple of
things from tape, but it was too much of a pain in the behind to use
for long.

Mine doesn't work anymore, the UHF converter failed years ago and replacing
it is pointless.

Crops would reproduce and spread, fruit would continue, where due to
it being a world of animals now, then meat is not a problem.

You are really that naive?

I know a fair deal about agriculture seeing that it is in family. Sure
things will go downhill greatly, but it would still go on.

Pests would be one of the biggest problems, but this usually causes
damage instead of completely destroying. Also there is the problem
with weeds and other unwelcome planets, which would also go to lower
production.

It could survive quite a few years like that, but things would be not
at all good in the long term. And that is why it would take some
farming to keep things how they should be.

Farmed without machines recently?

and fuel,

All those petrol stations...

Do you know the leakage rate from a petrol storage facility?

One petrol company in this country was recently fined a large amount
for letting 10,000 gallons leak away, but the report also said that a
Tesco's station has virtually no leakage.

It is not common practice for these storage tanks to leak, when that
defeats the whole purpose of having them. Also for those that do leak,
then they may not leak at the bottom.

Indeed they do not. Plus it would be a pretty precious resource - once gone
there would be no more.

Why would windows be broken? This deadly disease instead of knocking
them flat causes a window breaking rage?

Glass breaks.

So does a metal bar if you put enough force on it, but each reaction
does require an action. And unless you wish to explain the new theory
on how sunlight breaks glass, then you have to say how millions of
windows will get broken.

I suggest you read a book on the dynamic properties of glass.

Windows don't break themselves,

Sorry they do.

Argh, argh, argh I'm going to break. Shatter.

I don't think so...

shrug What you believe isn't my problem. Glass is essentially a
superviscous liquid, over time it grows weak and often breaks.

Roofs leak too.

Modern roofs know how to stay in place in all except the most extreme
conditions.

Actually, modern roofs are pretty grim, especially in modern buildings.

So with sunlight coming though the windows, then the building will
have suitable heat even in cold weather.

Ever tried leaving your house without any heating all winter?

Only for a few weeks holiday.

So you haven't.

Damp, isn't it...

No. If it was damp, then you would have to explain where the moisture
came from. Humans tend to create most moisture, opening and closing
doors, running taps, baths and showers.

Also closed doors between rooms greatly helps to stop cold and damp
spreading to other areas.

So you haven't tried it, don't worry about it.

I have lived here for 17 years now, where never in all that time has
the roof once leaked.

Really? Lucky sod.

Roofs are like that around here. Even the big storm of '87 went right
overhead with no damage at all.

I take it you also occasinally check it? Clear the gutters and so forth?

My old school leaked like sieve from the day it was built.

Obviously it was done in minimum budget and built by morons.

No, just a modern contractor who built a flat roof like most modern
buildings. Water tends to pool and every few years the lining must be
changed.

Such things require causes, where you have no causes.

Really they don't.

Magic won't do it, where acts of God are few and few between.

It doesn't need magic. Honestly, you seem to know very little about things
you pronounce on.

I have been storing paper goods in my garage for over a year now,
which is an environment much worse than an unoccupied house, where
even now they are just fine.

Good damp proof? Good maintenance?

Good structure.

Then I'll assume its not a modern building, like, for example, most
university libraries.

Some information could be lost certainly, but most of it will sit
around until needed.

Sorry, you are dreaming.

Want me to unleash a human species killer virus so that we can test my
theory? No I thought not. ;-]

And I see that you are just so good in explaining how millions of
windows can break and millions of roofs leak.

shrug

You seem to think your house is representative of construction techniques
through the UK, its hard to deal with that conceit.

Break into some house and take the scanner and printer.

And how do you maintain them?

Throw them away and get new ones to start with, but an ever enlarging
population can fill these needed jobs one by one.

What jobs? How do you propose to build them?

Where are you getting your raw materials for plastics, silicon chips and so
forth?

Not unlike a university student would I guess, but you tend to learn
more things when you actually go and do it.

No, go on... do some research - tell me how you intend to manufacturer
the
equipment.

The equipment already exists in labs around the world, where there is
no need to create what already exists.

And you believe this stuff lasts forever.

Take making anti-biotics, you need a pretty serious temperature controlled
environment, how do you propose to repair or replace thermostats?

And what part of physics says AI is impossible?

None, but it does say that it is not easy.

Never said it wasn't.

And I would doubt that they would even have it mastered by 2100.

You have any basis for this? No, thought not.

Not so, when the best way to make an intelligent machine is to try and
copy our own intelligence.

Really? You a neural scientist?

No,

So what makes you such an expert on this?

but when making something new it is always best to first copy what
is available. Like the Chinese and Russian rockets.

There is a lot of knowledge to be had in copying other work.

BTW - how would like to define human?

If they ever do manage to create superior intelligence, then
understanding what humans are is the easy part.

In other words no.

Even the current dumb computers can recognise humans and even tell
their mood from facial expressions.


So that part has already been solved, more or less.

Er... not really...

In the future with an intelligent machine you could just go "This is
Bob and he is a human". Over a short space of time this intelligent
machine can work out for itself what things are humans without having
to be told first.

And what if they decide to change their programme?

"Cardman" wrote in message
...
On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 21:12:36 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message
.. .
On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 16:21:18 +0000 (UTC), "Dave"
wrote:

How do you propose to do this if you have no central heating

I do not use any central heating in my house beyond hot water. Double
glazing, cavity wall insulation, loft insulation, which makes things
hot enough already without making more heat,

You never use heating? TV's, computers, cookers etc...

Yes, we have those kinds of heating, much to my thermal regrets. We
also make lots of damp as well to balance things out.

All of which heat things.

And running water soon adjusts the score.

You must have an amazing house. Certainly not like my place.

and food is far more important.

Thanks to agriculture most of our wilderness has been clearly away to
produce... wait for it.... FOOD!

You know how to grow food?

My family is more into the forestry side,

My father was a forensics expert, doesn't mean I can tell the difference
between fingerprints.

but sure I know how to grow
food on both the small and large scales. And yes I have worked on
farms before in many areas.

You know how to farm without machinery too?

Cats and Dogs would prove popular for an easy meat source. They eat
them in China after all.

Dogs - yes, do you want to think about the dogs for a while?

If it pleases you.

After all the humans are dead many of the pets will die due to
starvation and lack of care. A few will go on and find food sources,
which will more often than not be the recently deceased humans.

These dogs will then return to their wild nature by hunting in packs
to the regret of any animal who gets in their way. As that will
certainly involve our own people, then these hunting packs will need
to be exterminated.

Just like that eh?

There are books simply everywhere in society. Most people's houses,
the public library, collages and universities, the book shop and
tons
more.

Yes, none of them are in good positions to survive.

I see no reason why not.

I expect not.

You explain not, because you cannot.

I've explained, you seem to have problems with reality, frankly, giving you
a clue isn't my job, I'm just trying to help you along.

Buildings fall down, some take longer than others but without heating and
regular attention modern buildings become unsafe pretty damn quickly.
Concrete degrades, metal re-enforcements fail, flat roofs need to be
re-lined on a regular basis or they leak, which leads to collapse. Of
course the UK is a relatvely benigh climate, this will happen faster in
other parts of the world.

19th century buildings will survive longer, but there you'll have other
problems.

If it was an ebola style killer which is I believe around 90% fatal,
we
have a more reasonable number: 6,000,000 left in the UK.

Hardly a social collapse.

Nope. But a likely collapse in technological society.

Not even close. Society is not dependant on population numbers, where
that can just speed the rate of advancement.

How do you propose to continue manufacturing with less than a fifth of the
working population in total, in reality once you adjust for children, and
other factors you've probably only got 2 million people to do the work that
used to be done by 20 million. That also ignores the huge skills gaps
you're going to have. In this scenario, the cities are likely to be hit
harder than the country - which might be good for farming, but bad for
engineering, medicine and science.

Society is hugely dependant on a wide range of skills. Where are the 6
million, for example, going to be getting their clean drinking water from?
How are you handling food distribution, food storage and that sort of thing.

If we say, look at a few tens of thousands it gets worse.

That it does, but you are still taking millions on the global level.

What's that got to do with anything. The majority are probably going to be
subsistence farmers who have little contact with the outside world.

Advanced societies with cities and modern communications are going to be the
worst hit in a super plague.

If the numbers shrink too much, then it would be best to group
everyone together to create a large population.

You keep saying this which is terribly nice but ignores human nature.

My father worked on a nuclear power station along with his brother.

So you know how to run one?

No, but I can always dig out some manuals and I am well aware of the
theory.

Really? I somehow doubt that will help.

Firstly, you can't run a nuclear power plant by yourself, then there's
dealing with the waste products, refueling and other stuff.

I doubt, to be honest, you could work out how to run a hydro station without
destroying the turbine bearings in the first month.

Then there's 50,000,000 bodies to deal with.

With six million people available that certainly will be done, with
less people they would just rot.

Really, and the consequences are...

Keeping our people below ground until all that is left is bones, when
you certainly won't want to catch this disease when you come out.

So you have this "underground" secret layer planned already?


Come on, you're making this too easy for me.

With only a few hundred people available there is no option, other
then to let them naturally decompose.

Out in the open it would only take a few months before only bones are
left.

How do you survive for those months?

That'll make the hospitals and
cities pretty damn unpleasant for the survivors.

One of the early things to do would be to use about half of remaining
the male population to do the clean up. That makes three million
people to move (and incinerate) about 16 corpses each.

Like a one or two day job maximum.

Who organises this?

A natural born leader. With six million people available in the UK
they would even vote in a new prime minister.

You seen what happens to countries when the law and order breaks down;
Serbia, Iraq and so forth. How are you proposing to avoid that?

Then you have to worry about food and that sort of thing.

With six million people you can just squeeze them together in say the
south east and there will be plenty enough to do the required jobs.

How?

Authority, military, policing and most of all good logic.

What authority, what military, what police?

There's a less than a 1000 or so military left if you are lucky.

You still worried about books?

The fictional disease imagined in this situation is one that is much
more deadly than Ebola, when this is a species killer. A kill rate
very close to 100%, where underground colonies would live on.

What colonies?

If a disease did sweep through this planet with a seemingly 100% kill
rate, then apart from all air travel being banned, then a county that
is infected would make use of their large underground facilities to
allow hundreds or even thousands of people to live through it.

What large underground facilities?



And how do they get out again?

You do ask some silly questions. They would monitor world
communication and slowly see it stop, where after a couple of years
they would consider it safe to *open the door* and venture out.

You've been watching too much TV.

Six million can make their own food, where a few hundred have a lot of
supermarkets to choose from.

Assuming you have people who know how to farm,

Farming does not rank that high on the list of complex jobs, when
people have been doing it for thousands of years. Sure modern farming
is vastly different, but that can be dealt with.

How?

look after livestock and the like.

Livestock would not work out too well after all the farmers are dead,
when they are fenced or caged and quite dependant on humans.

Those that do survive on will be hunted down by our packs of wild
dogs.

So what then?

Of course the packs of dogs will eat the sheep and fowl.

Now you have it, where I was wondering if you would follow this chain
of thought.

I was waiting for you to get there.

Depends on how many died.

Six million would be back to full numbers within a couple of
generations with only a fairly modest breeding program.

Organised by whom?

It is part of human nature to organize and elect leaders.

LOL!

Like they did in Kosovo?

Down to a few hundred (say 300), then it is a case of as many as you
can, as fast as you can. Quite a strict breeding program as well, when
you need to aim for suitable genetic dispersion.

Organised how?

Thoughts of an old fashioned Roman orgy come to mind, but thankfully
people are intelligent and can see logic in restoring the human race
and society.

You have amazing faith in the human race. I don't share it myself.

I could get the popular numbers back up to full strength over nine
generations, where our females would have to start early and go on for
long.

You could? WHy should I follow your lead?

Would you not want to see society continue after such a major
disaster?

Yes, but I want to lead it! So does the guy with the working machine gun
and the small gang in the valley next door, and the well armed farmer over
the hill with the many daughters who thinks you're an idiot.

Then there's the survivors from London who don't care about organisation
because they are hungry and led by a hippy who got the taste for human
flesh...

Current social reproduction rates are simply no good here,
when following them could well lead to extinction.

as the roof fails,

Due to what cause?

Age, decay, rot, the usual things that cause buildings to fall down if
they
aren't looked after.

Only if they are already damaged, when rot won't occur on its own. As
even the timer used is treated to prevent rot.

The main tiles certainly won't decay, where I cannot see the rain
proof underlay doing that either.

I'll not be asking you to look after my house and office.

windows break,

All by themselves...

Yep.

So as anyone here seen a window break all on its own? As I cannot say
that I ever have.

You don't seem to have seen to have seen very much.

My books going back all the way over 300 years are just fine.

We've covered that. Old paper has a low acid content.

And what about all the ones in between?

They'll fall apart at varying rates.

Surely eating,

No problem.

You've yet to explain how.

Supermarkets and later farming.

As I said, you've yet to explain how.

Plenty of wood out there as well, where my grand father was a
woodsman.

Is there?

Yes simply loads of it, in our local renewal forests.

For 6 million people?

I can make you fences and with a saw (ideally a chain saw) I can get
you as many logs as you need in no time.

Fuel?

My grandfather was a woodsman after all, where I spent countless days
working in the forests.

There would also be school as well...

What school,

Pick a building.

who teaches?

Mostly anyone with the skill in the required subject area. I would
prefer older people I guess, when they are more wise and the younger
people are better at hard labour.

You ever tried to teach?

Apart from which you have a huge skills shortage, can you spare the
resources?

Whats the point of reading,

Another dumb question...

No, not at all.

You know why its important to read.

Explain that to a kid who is more interested in survival and doesn't
remember the old world.

in fact, have you ever taught reading?

Yes I have. I did it as work experience in my final year at school,

In other words, no, you haven't.

Just find an electric generator and some fuel.

And the computer does what exactly?

Resource allocation and monitoring.

Monitoring what?

The odd game and seeing what porn
is on the hard drive.

The internet doesn't exist anymore.

Obviously, which is an odd notion.

Very easy. Just go down your local shop, point at everything and go
mine, mine and yes I will have that as well.

So that sees you though the first winter, what then?

Then we are into farming,

As you keep saying...

How do you intend to preserve things?

Depends on what is needing to be preserved. Jars, tins and even a few
refrigerators and freezers.

No power.

Sugar and Salt are going to be running pretty low, pretty quick.

Sugar would be much worse off than salt, seeing that this usually
comes in packets and not containers. And not many animals around would
miss a chance at getting some sugar.

In the longer term we would have to use natural sweeteners instead of
sugar, which could well be a good thing.

And salt?

It takes generations to fall apart, where this is a battle within
these same generations to restore society. It would not be easy, but
it could be done with some knowledge being moped up later.

It takes days for a modern city to fall apart. Plenty of examples in the
news.

That is just a people thing, where this situation has no people. As a
result nothing moves or works without our help.

Depending on the scenario, there are millions of terrified people watching
the death get worse around them for weeks and weeks - you think that people
will sit in their homes and let that happen?

If you do you're a bigger fool than I thought.

A portable electric generator.

Fuel?

Just down the road.

We only need a small amount to start with.

Fuel?

Fuel will only pose a problem when we have a much larger population
and not yet the means to produce our own.

No, I think it'll be a pretty big problem pretty quick.

needs a huge number of people.

I will remember to bring along a nuclear technician, where we may get
one of those plants running.

One?

Unless there are two together.

How many? :-)

Remember, you don't get to choose.

Someone has to choose.

SO you see yourself as a natural leader eh?

I suppose you could issolate a power station so the
sub stations didn't trip when you try to draw current,

Running the national grid would be difficult. I would isolate the
local region for maybe up to about 30 miles.

Do you know how to issolate a sub-station?

No wires in or out would isolate it. :-]

So you'd cut the high tension cabling?

Know how to replace that?

HINT: It needs more than a junction box.

We have tons of coal, where they just shut down all the mines to cut
the CO2 emissions are per international agreement.

Where?

The North-East of England has a lot of coal, where a very few mines
are still operational.

And what happens to coal mines if they are left attended for a few months or
years?

Fuel will be found all over the place, when the old society used it
frequently.

Such as?

Petrol and diesel.

Which will run out relatively quickly.

The huge forests around the UK?

Trucks do not run well on logs.

Oh... we don't have many any more.

One day far in the future, when it is time to start making our own
once more.

Far far far future.

You seem to think that each aspect of technology exists without
interdependancies.

Not at all, when a lot, including our power station, would soon run
out of resources.

You can always read the supplier list though...

Which tells you what?

Where the replacement to your broken part is to be found.

And if, for example, in the case of many machine control systems they order
them from Siemens in Munich?

Can you change a bearing?

If the bearing needs to be changed, then it will be charged. Not
personally my type of work though.

What if nobody knows?

"Paul Blay" wrote in message
...
"Dave" wrote ...

"Cardman" wrote in message
On Mon, 04 Aug 2003 19:09:42 GMT, "Dave O'Neill" dave @ NOSPAM
atomicrazor . com wrote:

"Cardman" wrote in message

Windows don't break themselves,

Sorry they do.

Argh, argh, argh I'm going to break. Shatter.

I don't think so...

shrug What you believe isn't my problem. Glass is essentially a
superviscous liquid,

Wrong-wrong-wrongity-wrong
http://www.cabletoday.com/ct2/archives/0199/ct0199g.asp

Hmm... looks like Dr Norman was wrong.

But, looking at a few other sites the question of the longevity of glass in
normal conditions is still open.

Cardman writes:
Humans have been around for millions of years already,

"Manfred Bartz"
IIRC, homo sapiens has been around for approx 130000 years.

That seems to be correct, Manfred. Much of that time was spent in Africa.
According to recent DNA research the first humans left Africa around 100,000
years ago. The DNA research is rather conclusive in some respects, due mostly
to some of the inherent qualities of the molecule.

The Y (male) chromosome allows for the tracing of what we might call the tribal
lineage. Since a male inherits the Y chromosome whole and intact from the
father, any mutations in one generation are passed on to all subsequent
generations without change. It is therefor possible to trace a mutation in a
population as far back as the point of origin, or to put it another way, it is
possible to trace an original group to determine the scope of its migration.
The practical result is that it is now possible to determine that there were
about five small groups of emmigrants from Africa that proliferated into the
known world. One went to Europe, one to Central Asia, one to Siberia and on to
North America, and so on.

On another related topic, anthropologists have argued back and forth whether
Neanderthal man became extinct or was absorbed and bred with Homo Sapiens.
According to recent findings, it is now believed that Neanderthal and HS did not
breed and that Neanderthal man became extinct. This is remarkeable to me
because Neanderthal man could make tools, used fire, and probably had
rudimentary language. On the minus side, Neanderthal did not have a high IQ.
Tough toenails.

"Cardman"
Just imagine us huddling around the dying warmth of a Star, which just
happens to be the very last Star to burn in the Universe.

Just imagine that the life span of an average star is far greater than the
length of time that would transform any biological entity through evolution into
something unrecognizable.

Whatever is huddling around the last star won't be us.

And they won't need an external power source, if they're intelligent.

"Kent Betts" wrote ...
On another related topic, anthropologists have argued back and forth whether
Neanderthal man became extinct or was absorbed and bred with Homo Sapiens.
According to recent findings, it is now believed that Neanderthal and HS did not
breed and that Neanderthal man became extinct. This is remarkeable to me
because Neanderthal man could make tools, used fire, and probably had
rudimentary language. On the minus side, Neanderthal did not have a high IQ.

Oh? And were you there to test them?

It's far from clear to me that lower IQ is the 'smoking gun'.

A quick Google search brings up such theories as
http://gsa.confex.com/gsa/inqu/final...ract_47440.htm
(where it is suggested that Neanderthals were at a disadvantage from a narrower
carniviorous diet in comparison to the more varied omnivorous diet of the 'hunter-
gatherer' population of the early 'modern' humans.)