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...Hurricane Felix Yet another Category 5.
Jonathan wrote:
Standard models earlier on predicted it would make it to a three by landfall late next week. It not only smashed that prediction but went from a category 1 to a 5 at over ...three times the predicted rate..just today. Global warming means we better get used to very large hurricanes, they're becoming the norm instead of the exception. I posted this in 2005 when the more excitable were hysterical. The theory of AGW enhancement of Tropical Cyclones comes from the observation of strengthening when storms pass over warmer waters, enhancing their convective potential energy, and so the storm's intensity. First, while enhanced convection does increase the surface inflow/outflow aloft of TCs, it is conservation of angular momentum that gives TCs their intensity and circular shape. Indeed the CAPE measurements, (Convective Available Potential Energy) are surprisingly low in Tropical Cyclones - much less than over the Great Plains in early summer. Second, AGW is modeled to DECREASE the lapse rate in the tropics, stabilizing the atmosphere and suppressing convection. That is not happening: http://climatewatcher.blogspot.com/ So you see Felix and say - aha! global warming! I see Felix and say - aha! no global warming! |
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