Chances of Bush moon-Mars program surviving

In article ,
Dr. O dr.o@xxxxx wrote:
Let's assume Bush announces a bold new moon-Mars exploration program today.
What do you guys reckon are the chances of this endeavor surviving if a
Democrat becomes the new President?

My guess would be that the likeliest outcome is similar to what happened to
SDI under Clinton: it wasn't canceled, exactly, but it was renamed, its
finances were severely cut back, and any actual schedule for doing anything
was pushed off into the indefinite future.
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(Christopher) wrote in
:

it all depends on the finances for the mission,
and if it's been ring fenced.


Ring fenced?

"Dr. O" dr.o@xxxxx wrote in message
...
I think there's only a small chance of the program surviving if a Democrat
becomes the elected new President. What do you guys think?

If a Democrat is elected in 2004, probably 10%.

If a Democrat is elected in 2008, probably 90%.

Bruce

On Wed, 14 Jan 2004 14:37:52 GMT, John Schutkeker
wrote:

(Christopher) wrote in
:

it all depends on the finances for the mission,
and if it's been ring fenced.


Ring fenced?

A British political saying meaning the money is set aside for
something and can't be touched except for that purpose.

"Dr. O" dr.o@xxxxx wrote:

Let's assume Bush announces a bold new moon-Mars exploration program today.

Well, is it really bold, or a somewhat sensible looking plan to keep
the space industry ticking over once the space station is finished?

As announced, it looks pretty reasonable, but I'm not american and
don't understand american politics, so anything could happen.

Byeeeee.
--
Gadzooks - here comes the Harbourmaster!
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In article ,
(Gene DiGennaro) wrote:

Obviously, the doomsday scenario in all of this is the end of US
manned spaceflight. It's been mentioned before that this all too easy
to occur with the end of shuttle ops and the new exploration program
cut. However, the US would lose too much face if they were to
completely back off from US manned missions on US manned spacecraft.
Either way, a new manned vehicle will come out of this, just its
capabilities will differ.

You seem to be assuming only the government can do manned spaceflight.
But that's no longer true -- SS1 will be going into space (albiet
suborbitally) pretty soon, with a couple others probably to follow in
the next few years. Orbital craft could follow. And currently unmanned
launchers, like the SpaceX Falcon series, could probably be man-rated if
there were sufficient demand for it.

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Bruce Sterling Woodcock wrote:

"Dr. O" dr.o@xxxxx wrote in message
. ..


I think there's only a small chance of the program surviving if a Democrat
becomes the elected new President. What do you guys think?



If a Democrat is elected in 2004, probably 10%.

If a Democrat is elected in 2008, probably 90%.

Bruce


So if a Democrat is elected both in 2004 and 2008 we get
a total of 100% chance the program to survive :-)

Alain Fournier

Dr. O dr.o@xxxxx wrote:
Let's assume Bush announces a bold new moon-Mars exploration program
today.
What do you guys reckon are the chances of this endeavor surviving if a
Democrat becomes the new President?

If a Democrat wins this year, I think that there is a 50% chance of getting
to the moon faster and 50% chance of getting there slower. The plan would
be changed enough to look like the new President's plan. The vehicle would
very definitely not be called crew exploration vehicle (CEW). I can't see a
President saying that we won't go to the moon.

In article ,
"Mike Rhino" wrote:

If a Democrat wins this year, I think that there is a 50% chance of getting
to the moon faster and 50% chance of getting there slower. The plan would
be changed enough to look like the new President's plan. The vehicle would
very definitely not be called crew exploration vehicle (CEW). I can't see a
President saying that we won't go to the moon.

I think I agree. I've been searching for information on Dean's take on
the subject. Of course all I can find are statements made before Bush's
announcement. But they seem reasonably positive; he says he's a strong
supporter of space, and while he makes some words about balancing the
budget and fiscal responsibility, he could hardly argue that the
proposed plan is going to be a problem in that regard.

(He also talks about alternative energy sources, which provides some
slim hope that he would increase funding for SSP.)

My prediction is that within a few months, the public is going to become
excited about returning to the Moon -- at least, more excited than
they've been about anything in space in the last three decades -- and
that it would be political suicide for any President to interfere with
that.

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On Wed, 14 Jan 2004 09:12:35 +0100, "Dr. O" dr.o@xxxxx wrote:

.... What do you guys reckon are the chances of this endeavor surviving if a
Democrat becomes the new President? ..... I think there's only a small chance
of the program surviving if a Democrat
becomes the elected new President. What do you guys think?


Well, on the one hand Clinton killed SEI (Bush Sr.'s Moon/Mars
proposal) when he came into office, but he kept the Shuttle and the
Station, as well as things like Galileo and Cassini that had been in
the works.

I'd say the odds are not good that a Dem would keep whatever Bush
starts, but it depends on the Democrat and what they're proposing.
Word is Bush had Cheynne pow-wowing with members of Congress long
before the announcement, to see what kind of support they could count
on. That might make the difference if Bush is voted out.