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#11
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Space Travel will save the world
On 30 Jun, 04:25, Quadibloc wrote:
On Jun 29, 11:40 am, (Rand Simberg) wrote: On Sun, 29 Jun 2008 15:16:45 GMT, in a place far, far away, "Martha Adams" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: I wonder if the people in this newsgroup have enough capacity for clear original thinking; the maturity to work things through and express them usefully, to contribute to an objective of off-Terra settlements with functional business ecologies, and make someone very rich as well as improve the odds for us humans to continue our line into the remote future? *? It seems quite unlikely. *Most of the people in the group who are like that have left. *They're off doing useful things where they don't have to deal with all the loons and trolls. Well, people with multi-million dollar fortunes that let them own companies that build three-stage rockets don't have much time to post on newsgroups anyways. This is partly why I support such socialist institutions as NASA. That and I just find it hard to imagine what people call a "business model" for private enterprise space development... just yet. People pioneering now in *that* fashion are not going to get much more than the proverbial "arrows in their backs" for their pains, I fear. Look Arianespace has just such a model. If you take one very simple metric - cost/Kg at LEO it is clear that NASA has been a spectacular failure. If you had free enterprise no one would have bought shuttle space. There are some failures of Capitalism which William Mook touched on. If you have a constant supply of X barrels coming out of the ground, supply and demand will fix a price. If you have a price of a commodity that varies according to technlogy pure Capitalism alone will not necessarily give you the right strategy. Capitalism alone does not tell you what you should do if the price of oil is $140 and we don't know what the price will be in the furure. Let me explain, supose we develop a new energy source which costs $80 per barrel equivalent. This source will take at least 5 years to come on stream at which point the price of oil has dropped. There is a case for "socialist" subsidies to ensure stability. This is not, of course, to say that a large socialist organization like NASA should continue to exist. There is a socialogical constraint too. A socialist organization tends always to "play safe". In the absense of an objective efficiency metric promotions are made on the basis of not "rocking the boat". Double cost/Kg of Ariane? Even more for Proton. In a capitalist world NASA would have sued for chapter 11 and been savagely pruned. Another argument for capitalism is that there are many possible technical solutions. For solar power we have. 1) Photovoltaics. 2) SSP 3) Mirrors to raise steam and drive a turbine. 4) Biological methods, genetically engineered algae. Not being cetain which technology will win in the end it makes sense to have them competing against one and other on a level playing field. Space needs heavy capital investment. Is socialism the only way to achieve this? No, in point of fact the best way to achieve this is to go all out for capitalism and globalization. Energy is a concern of THE WHOLE WORLD, not just the US. This being the case, why do we insist in national space programs? It would make a lot more sense to have a joint stock company which the whole world could buy into. This company would put Kgs into LEO at the LOWEST rate. The present space set up is in fact what might be described as socio fascist. - Ian Parker |
#12
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Space Travel will save the world
On Jun 30, 4:38 am, Ian Parker wrote:
Energy is a concern of THE WHOLE WORLD, not just the US. If the world rejects nuclear power firmly enough that we must accept the large capital investment of solar power satellites instead, and if that has to be done through private investment, not government programs with massive tax funding, then what probabilities favor is not the colonization of space. It is a new dark age when we run out of oil or when global warming runs rampant. I would like us to make policy decisions that *minimize* the probability of that. To me, space is a means, not an end; the survival and progress and well-being of humanity are the end. A prosperous, energy-rich Earth is the one more likely to have something to spare for space. John Savard |
#13
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Space Travel will save the world
On Jun 29, 10:51*pm, kT wrote:
wrote: We need to go beyond politics of right wing or left wing -as they're both flawed - go beyond the politics as usual and seek to construct real solutions to real problems facing us. Like for instance, sustainable life support systems using the resources we already have at our disposal? How does that work exactly? You got that worked out? Fact is, we need to reach beyond the center to the resources of our frontier. Fact is, we are already farming every square inch of land the best we can, and still 3 billion go to bed hungry and 300,000 die every day of malnutrition. You think we should use scientific farming methods instead of susbsistence farming everywhere we can? Good idea Bongo. Howd does that work exactly? You got that all worked out do you? I'd love to see the plan. Fact is, we can't scientifically farm every square inch of arable land, we don't have the resources to do it. The USA and its Cold War Allies are in a sweet spot - that technology and terrestrial resources cannot sustain, let alone EXPAND to include everyone on Earth in a growing vital economy. There are two solutions possibles; 1) tap the resources off-world 2) collapse That's it. We can't magically wave the technology wand and make do with everything here. You gonna quote me about the great advances we've had with computers? Why don't you look at capacitors - and specifically - the tantalum required for high performance capacitors. Or what about the great advances in head phones eh? You know, back in the day, we had Old School headphones - and microphones too. And to get any good quality they were as big a freaking blackberry on each ear! and they used a lot of power too! Well, today - we've got super magnets - made the lollypop microphones and softball sized headphones into point mikes - and ear buds - vastly reducing power - why we do that with our cars and homes - my God - they'll be plenty for everyone right? How does that work exactly? Look at the mining of Neodymium. You want to know what's propping up the murder states of Africa right now? Yep, those earbuds and i-pods, and all the rest have blood on them - you couldn't make enough batteries, capacitors, and other advanced technology gizmos for 3 billion people let alone 8 billion people every 4 years or so - the life time of most equipment. Even today, though, getting your ipod at a price you can afford requires that the raw material be extracted by slave labor in a murder state, and assembled by indentured technicians living in a Communist slave state. And that will last only as long as there are enough strategic materials to keep the process working. Who are bearing the real cost of declining reserves? The slaves who are murdered by the millions searching every square inch of their land for the rare materials demanded by the owners of this planet. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7472650.stm But you know humans, they go ape ****. Seeing our raw materials shortages as a personality defect in humans generally is an interesting response. I guess it must be an artifiact of the propaganda they feed the consumers to keep them blind to the damage they do and the human costs they incur to maintain their 'lifestyle'. I have limited myself to the technology of survival by moving beyond the center into the frontier to develop new resources. Really? How much lithium have you mined today? How much lithium do you use? How much oil have you pumped today? How much oil do you use? How much platinum did you refine today? How much platinum did you use? How much tantalum did you smelt today? How much tantalum do you use? How much copper did you mine today? How much copper did you use? I could go on with about 100 strategic materials - and continue on to over 1,000 less strategic materials - and I would bet that you don't even know your footprint let alone know how to maintain your standard of living with a reduced foot print. And before you answer none -you use ALL those materials I listed, just by being able to communicate with me on the internet. Do you know what your footprint is for tantalum? Count the capacitors in your computer, and in the communications link and power supply that feeds it - and all the other systems you touch... It won't make any difference at all, the apes will still go ape ****. You are blind and stupid and ignorant of the facts - and have nothing of real importance to say as a result. ****, ****, ****, eat - more ape babies. Interesting. If you don't like babies, why the **** are you alive? What is the point of your existence? Let me give you the only answer that works. Taking care of one another is the only worthwhile activity on this planet for humans. We are doing a ****ty job of it - that's because the wise guys that work for the owners of this planet - have determined we cannot take care of one another with the resources at our disposal. Technology has got us into a trap - according to these wise guys. That trap is - technology has increased population above sustainable levels - and given us nuclear weapons and all sorts of horrible killing machines. The owner's problem is to maintain their position while managing a 'die down' of human numbers to a more reasonable level. That's the most favorable version of the collapse scenario I mentioned above. Problem is, its incredibly rosy scenario. Problem is, certain of the hired hands for the owners are making their own plans to take advantage of the 'die down' of human numbers. They're secretly supporting terror cells that naturally arise when people's lives are frustrated. By frustrated I mean getting your family blown up in front of your face because you didn't want to mine copper for nothing while your babies were sick. That sort of frustration. Survivors of this mayhem are motivated and willing to undergo any hardship to get back at the people they think are responsible. These are perfect tools for the hired hands who are secretly plotting against the owners. The owners can even be engineered into training and supplying these terror cells. Al Queda for instance, were our boys in Afghanistan when we wanted a proxy force to kick the Russian's ass. They were efficiently turned against the owners, and their leaders are hiding in the hinterlands of the hired hands. Gang members - outcasts among the owners - and bad boys generally - are urged to join the Armies of the owners to get training - then, when those bad boys learn to kill efficiently, they leave the Army and start a revolutionary cell of their own in the very heartland of the owners - supplied with guns and drugs and money by the hired hands. Meanwhile, loose nukes and nuclear technology are flowing throughout the lands of the hired hands - into the control of the terror groups. So, a less rosy scenario for the owners of this planet, is the detonation of a few loose nukes in their major cities - with the rising up of highly militarized 'gangs' at every surviving city center - and the owners will be put down - while the hired hands take over - assuring that the owners will bear the brunt of the die down - rather than ride the crest on the back of impoverished billions. Of course these are just variations in the collapse of human numbers. Anyone looking back at our current age - in a post collapse world - will properly see it as a golden era of opportunity and adventure - if you're smart enough to see it. After collapse we won't have the resources, we won't have the people, we won't have the talent, we won't have the skills - of a planet of 6.6 billion people - we'll be struggling with perhaps 1 billion people and space travel will be a remote fantasy. Space won't help them at all. Yes it will. It is the ONLY thing that will help us. The owners of this planet don't want widespread missile or nuclear technology for obvious reason, so they have gone out of their way to create the fiction that space travel is necessarily expensive, dangerous and impractical. I was told this flat out in Washington back in the 1990s. Teledesic and Iridium were taking the next logical step in satellite development - many to many - this required a lot of satellites - and it created a lot of value when done well. So, I started a company, Orbatek - to build a two-stage reusable launcher around off-the-shelf hardware. Of course, you can't even advertise such a program without getting approvals, so I went to Washington to the DOT to get the approvals needed. As I developed my program, I ran into a number of interesting people. Most interesting were the folks at the Pentagon. I had a frank discussion with a Colnel there. You cannot do this cheaply! he said. Mistaking his comment for a statement of fact, I went on to show how I could do all this within my budget. No, he said, you CANNOT do this cheaply. Why? I asked. Because $500 million is a hefty sum for you to raise - but its easy for nations like Korea or India, or you name it, to raise. You succeed in building an orbital vehicle for less than $1 billion - you succeed in making it reliable and all the rest - and you are sending the wrong signal. Missile proliferation will be a thing of the past. Every tin pot dictator in the world will create a space program and have missiles within 3 years of your first successful launch - so you CANNOT do this cheaply. Got it? I thought the guy was mad. But, Connestoga went up in flames. Iridium and Teledesic went bye bye. Rotary rocket was a fiasco. Why? Because it scared the owners of this planet with the potential that they would lose their grip on the control of technologies they have come to regard as their own. We have avoided progress because progress scared the powers that be. This insures our ultimate failure. The powers that be think they're insuring their survival. You might try ... education. Right, and the first one I'm educating is you you arrogant blow hard! lol. Terrestrial solar is an off-world resource that arrives here with very little effort. So, its the first off-world resource we will use. Humanity spends about $8 trillion per year on food and $4 trillion per year on energy, and $2 trillion per year on 'defense' basically maintaining the power structure that keeps the food and energy flowing in the right direction at the right prices. This is where we start. This is where the opportunity lies. Develop a solar powered replacement for fossil fuels. Using the profits from this operation, capture rich asteroids, bring them into orbit around Earth, and using tele-robotics -which allow everyone everywhere to work in a civilized way in space - and solar power in space, process those asteroids in space, into products that are then distributed world-wide to everyone everywhere using GPS guided entry vehicles. Use captured asteroids and orbiting factories that process them, to make large numbers of pressure vessels that then use tele-robotic systems to grow food and distribute it globally at low cost. Expand the number and size of pressure vessels to grow forests in space, and distribute fiber along with food to everyone on Earth. Use captured asteroidal resources and orbiting factories, along with tele-robotic labor and solar power to build aerostat cities powered by laser beams from space - similar to 'cloud nine' cities envisioned by Buckminster Fuller back in the 1960s. These aerostat cities circulate around Earth supplying materials and know-how to disaster areas - and rescuing populations - by removing them from harms way. Providing a decent place to live, medical care, food, training a decent job - and a fair and balanced financial services program to accumulate wealth - to anyone who asks - Use captured asteroidal resources and orbiting factories, along with tele-robotic labor and solar power to build large numbers of autonomous fliers that use beamed laser energy from space to power propulsive skins that implement personal ballistic transport systems at extremely low cost. People first rent, then fractionally own, and then own outright - personal veihcles that span the globe in less than an hour. Use captured asteroidal resources and orbiting factories powered by sunlight, with tele-robotic labor - to build pressure vessels that operate as independent space homes on orbit - supplied by the very system that build them. People use their personal ballistic transport systems to attain orbit - and shuttle back and forth between Earth and their space home. Most stay at home and use telerobotics to go to work, and telepresence to socialize. The energy and material resources of the inner solar system are adequate to all our foreseeable needs for growth of the human culture through this difficult time of transition. This is important to know. The more that know it, the more we will make rational decisions going forward - rather than the continuing stream of irrational decisions based firmly in insane belief systems or the fantasy of self serving propaganda. |
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Space Travel will save the world
On 30 Jun, 12:39, Quadibloc wrote:
On Jun 30, 4:38 am, Ian Parker wrote: Energy is a concern of THE WHOLE WORLD, not just the US. If the world rejects nuclear power firmly enough that we must accept the large capital investment of solar power satellites instead, and if that has to be done through private investment, not government programs with massive tax funding, then what probabilities favor is not the colonization of space. In the case of Nuclear Power it is safety concerns that are worrying people, not the ability of Capitalism to invest. This perhaps tells us what the role of government should be. Governments are there to set the rules. It takes about 4 years to build a nuclear power station GIVEN THE PLANNING GO AHEAD. Planning is an area that only a government can tackle. Governments can tax oil and other fossil fuels. $140 effectively means that the tax is imposed for them. Green taxes are irrelevant at that price level. I do not believe there is any project that private enterpriose cannot tackle. SSP may be a solution if the economics are right, space colonies are simply not cost effective. The fallacy of doing it though tax is that you are thereby railroading one solution through. One of the best arguments against socialism is technological advance. One technology will be the winner, we don't know which. One thing that governments can do is to provide incentives for a solution any solution. They can also ensure that if the price of oil should drop they pick up the revenue in tax and the consumer STILL pays $140 It is a new dark age when we run out of oil or when global warming runs rampant. I would like us to make policy decisions that *minimize* the probability of that. To me, space is a means, not an end; the survival and progress and well-being of humanity are the end. A prosperous, energy-rich Earth is the one more likely to have something to spare for space. It is indeed a means to an end. It may be the best solution or it may not be. We need viable SSP schemes that don't cost the Earth. If SSP can directly lower the cost to LEO (laser heating of exhausts) so much the better. Another areas where governments can help is in the provision of funds for long term research. - Ian Parker |
#15
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Space Travel will save the world
Two RL10 engines adapted to operate through a wide range of ambient
pressures from sea-level to orbit, cost about $5 million in quantity and the pair produces 30,000 lbsf thrust. The engines are throttable, restartable, and reusable. 7 of these engine pairs housed in 7 airframes - clustered in a hcp array -with cross-feeding - make an interesting launcher. Viewed looking down on the system from above the cluster is numbered (1)(2) (3)(4)(5) (6)(7) All elements fire at launch, and produce 210,000 lbsf thrust - and lift 168,000 lb mass vehicle into the sky at 1.25 gees. Each elements masses 24,000 lbs full, and carries 21,000 lbs of propellant. Element 1 feeds propellant into element 3 Element 6 feeds propellant into element 3 Element 3 feeds propellant into element 4 Element 2 feeds propellant into element 5 Element 7 feeds propellant into element 5 Element 5 feeds propellant into element 4 So, 1,2,6,7 are drained during launch. This is the first stage. 84,000 lbs of propellant are burned, in a 168,000 lb vehicle at launch - into a rocket with an exhaust velocity of 4.1 km/sec. So, without gravity or air drag losses, the delta vee of this first stage is 2.84 km/sec. The four empty elements separate - reenter - deploy wings at subonic speeds and glide to be recovered mid air downrange - and towed back to the launch center by air. Meanwhile 3 elements continue to orbit. (3)(4)(5) Now element 3 feeds into element 4 and element 5 feeds into element 4 So, 42,000 pounds of propellant are burned to accelerate 72,000 lbs of propellant with rockets having a 4.2 km/sec exhaust speed. That imparts another 3.67 km/sec to the vehicle speed - a total of 6.51 km/ sec - without gravity drag or air drag losses. Now element 4 continues on its own, while the other two elements separate re-enter and are recovered downrange. To attain orbit, element 4 must add another 2.69 km/sec to its speed. With an exhaust speed of 4.2 km/sec this implies 11,351 lbs of propellant. Subtracting this figure plus 3,000 lbs of element structure, obtains 9,649 pounds of useful payload on orbit. This vehicle would cost $70 million to build and require another $30 million for test articles and a test program. Recurring costs are less than $500,000 per launch. $100 million divided among 200 uses - is another $500,000 per launch. So, the cost of this system is $100 per pound. With flights once a week - the vehicle has a 4 year life span. Charging $500 per pound - or $5 million per launch - produces $1 billion over 5 years from a $100 million investment - which is a HUGE return on investment over 77% per year!! A wide range of payloads, including a piloted payload is possible with this vehicle. The Russians are selling launches for about $25 million each. Two people sharing a ride aboard this vehicle could pay $2.5 million each and maintain revenue. A larger vehicle with RS-68 engines - with 660,000 lbs of thrust - one per element - is 22x larger - capable of putting 220,000 lbs into LEO. This is sufficient to do some serious work in space. Including putting up satellite networks. A still larger vehicle built along the same lines - with 7 RS-68 engines per element - is 154x larger - capable of putting 1,540,000 lbs into LEO - This is large enough for a reasonably sized power satellite |
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Space Travel will save the world
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Space Travel will save the world
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#18
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Space Travel will save the world
kT
Most of humanity has never seen the inside of a classroom. Most of humanity hasn't even elementary education. Most of humanity could possess Phds, that won't increase the reserves of needed raw materials. So your comments about dumbing down, and about ****ing children are merely red-herrings designed to radicalize the discussion and bury the relevant issues in a sea of highly emotional irrelevancies. Besides, education is something wealthy societies do for themselves. Education, like environmentalism, is a luxury item. If we are less educated today than we were 50 years ago, its because we're poorer than we were 50 years ago. Why? Because the commodities on which our industrial world are based are limited and their costs are rising - subtracting from our wealth - thus, those things we buy with our wealth, go wanting. So, The relevant facts are; 1) there are a handful of strategic materials (including oil) that are in short supply 2) modern industry requires these materials in increasing quantity 3) rising living standards among larger populations increase demand for these materials 4) We have two choices; a) expand the availability of these materials by tapping off world resources b) collapse our demand by radical reduction in use 4a) involves developing off world resources using existing space faring techniques 4b) involves a die off of human populations Since the 1950s our society has elected to covertly manage 4b and manage the global information environment to avoid all blame, pointing out that we didn't cause 4b, but we certainly have a right to manage events to they don't affect us. Others don't see it that way, and any idea that we can usefully manage collapse and remain unaffected is a greater fantasy than any space travel scenario you can imagine. 4a) proceeds as follows; 1) Terrestrial solar replaces fossil fuel use 2) Develop RLV technology, deploy global wireless broadband 3) Expand RLV technology, deploy powersats 4) Develop NPP technology, capture asteroids to LEO 5) Deploy tele-operated factories to LEO 6) Distribute needed materials throughout the world 7) Expand space manufacturing to include farming, forestry 8) Distribute needed foods and fibers throughout the world 9) Distribute aerostat cities to act as warehouses, and relief centers 10) Distribute personal ballistic transport vehicles 11) Develop space homes The profits in step #1 will be used to; 1a) develop inflatable homes and green houses 1b) develop tele-robotics and tele-presence technologies Step #2 will expand upon 1b) to provide jobs and financial services for everyone on demand. So, we will quickly have reasonable housing and jobs everywhere - relatively quickly. Each home will have a teleoperated robot in it, to provide a means to RECEIVE services as well as tele-operation suites to provide services - and of course a wide range of video and audio services. So, medical care and hands on training is quickly available to many. Asteroid capture and development will take 12 years from the day the program starts. It may be 3 to 8 years from today before the program starts - so we're 15 to 20 years out on that. It may be possible to work the issue other ways prior to this. Once we have adequate supplies of raw materials, and capacity on orbit, we are perfectly suited to resolve all the remaining supply problems - and permit resolution of many issues going forward. |
#19
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Space Travel will save the world
So what you're saying is, that after another 10 years or so of posting on the usenet, we are right back to where we started.- Hide quoted text - Look, you can ask the question What is 1 plus 1 ? and the answer will be 2 - no matter if you ask the question 10years ago or today. Its still 2. Same here. We build a series of increasingly capable RLVs - and use them to deploy a variety of missions including the current inventory of satellite missions, as well as some new ones - including satellite constellations and powersats. We take the inventory of weapons grade materials world wide and convert that to non-threatening impulse units, and build a small fleet of highly capable nuclear pulse ships. With these we establish cites on the moon and mars, and manned outposts throughout the solar system. We also survey the asteroid belt in detail, and return rich asteroids to Earth orbit. Once there, we deploy solar powered tele- operated factories to process the asteroids into products that are demanded on Earth - raising living standards - ending our resource shortages. |
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