Pinkerton On Hawking

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=062706D

Rand Simberg ) wrote:
: http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=062706D

About time you contributed something useful!

On Tue, 27 Jun 2006 13:46:47 -0400, in a place far, far away,
(Eric Chomko) made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Rand Simberg ) wrote:
: http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=062706D

About time you contributed something useful!

When are you going to?

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=062706D

An interesting article. He even gives a mention (however oblique) to
space entrepreneurs which is more than one sometimes gets from this
kind of article. Now, he says that only to dismiss the possibility of
anyone but a government settling space.

So if Virgin Galactic and Bigelow turn out to be the start of a space
industry which takes off rather quickly, he may look foolish
(especially for his timing). But of course it is too early to say
whether this will happen, and if it does happen what the impact on
space settlement will be.

On Tue, 27 Jun 2006 16:44:39 -0400, in a place far, far away, Jim
Kingdon made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=062706D

An interesting article. He even gives a mention (however oblique) to
space entrepreneurs which is more than one sometimes gets from this
kind of article. Now, he says that only to dismiss the possibility of
anyone but a government settling space.

So if Virgin Galactic and Bigelow turn out to be the start of a space
industry which takes off rather quickly, he may look foolish
(especially for his timing). But of course it is too early to say
whether this will happen, and if it does happen what the impact on
space settlement will be.

I've actually talked to him about that. He just doesn't take private
space seriously. He may in fact look foolish a decade or so from now.

On Tue, 27 Jun 2006 09:48:50 -0400, h (Rand
Simberg) wrote:

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=062706D

A wonderful article, expressing sentiments which I fully share.

I recognize the validity of the other side of the argument too, of
course: this will cost money, and the consent of the taxpayer is
required. I think it can be done at an affordable price.

John Savard
http://www.quadibloc.com/index.html
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On Tue, 27 Jun 2006 16:46:48 -0400, h (Rand
Simberg) wrote, in part:

I've actually talked to him about that. He just doesn't take private
space seriously. He may in fact look foolish a decade or so from now.

I find it hard to take private anything seriously either without a
viable business model.

Technology does advance, even in such relatively mature fields as rocket
propulsion. Private companies doing resarch into new rocket designs are,
rightly, focussed on bringing the cost of going into space down. I
expect them to have some success, but not as much as they hope for or
expect. The likely result of that is the present crop of space ventures
will fail, but benefits from their efforts will lead to a later success.

Of course, it is *expected* that private space is an investment
involving risks as well as rewards, and so if one of the current space
ventures survives and prospers, while the others fall by the wayside,
that would still be success.

I, personally, am not inspired with optimism that this can happen:
they're all focussed on radically new markets, which require a much
lower cost to go to space than we now have. If the traditional aerospace
giants were trying to achieve the more modest goal of undercutting one
another through incremental improvements in technology, I would be more
confident they would achieve the result of lowering the cost of
launching satellites by at least a limited amount.

If we had something like Teledesic or even Iridium to drive the
market... but perhaps we will again, if one of the present private space
enterprises seems promising enough to make such a bold plan viable.

John Savard
http://www.quadibloc.com/index.html
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On Wed, 28 Jun 2006 11:12:37 GMT, in a place far, far away,
lid (John Savard) made the phosphor
on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

Of course, it is *expected* that private space is an investment
involving risks as well as rewards, and so if one of the current space
ventures survives and prospers, while the others fall by the wayside,
that would still be success.

I, personally, am not inspired with optimism that this can happen:
they're all focussed on radically new markets, which require a much
lower cost to go to space than we now have.

This is the only way that we're going to get reduced costs. Existing
market don't care that much, and it's not in the interest of existing
providers to reduce costs.

Rand Simberg wrote:

it's not in the interest of existing
providers to reduce costs.

That's true in many industries that still see cost declines.
The actions of each player are to their own advantage, not
to that of the entire industry.

What's needed to make this happen is enough competition
that collusion isn't practical, and lack of market fragmentation
due to political constraints on suppliers (which, in effect,
creates smaller monopolized markets.)

Paul

On Wed, 28 Jun 2006 08:17:28 -0500, in a place far, far away, "Paul F.
Dietz" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:

Rand Simberg wrote:

it's not in the interest of existing
providers to reduce costs.

That's true in many industries that still see cost declines.
The actions of each player are to their own advantage, not
to that of the entire industry.

What's needed to make this happen is enough competition
that collusion isn't practical, and lack of market fragmentation
due to political constraints on suppliers (which, in effect,
creates smaller monopolized markets.)

Yes, that's needed, but given the politics and structure of the
industry, it's unlikely to happen.