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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
The risk of micrometeoroid or debris damage to the RCC panels has been evaluated several times. Hypervelocity impact testing, using nylon, glass, and aluminum projectiles, as well as low-velocity impact testing with ice, aluminum, steel, and lead projectiles, resulted in the addition of a 0.03- to 0.06-inch-thick layer of Nextel-440 fabric between the Inconel foil and Cerachrome insulation. Analysis of the design change predicts that the Orbiter could survive re-entry with a quarter-inch diameter hole in the lower surfaces of RCC panels 8 through 10 or with a one-inch hole in the rest of the RCC panels. This reffers to a time before CAIB. The last sentence is only possible if they did extensive testing in the arcjet facility. Together with the other statments by Madden it rules out any importance of the oxidation at the crack surface in the Columbia case. The CAIB conclusions still stands. You are confusing the issue. I do not take issue with the CAIB's conclusion regarding the actual Columbia working scenario. My issue is with the hypothetical repair scenario. its about the hole grow by oxidation The 2004 arcjet tests were higher fidelity than previous tests and therefore invalidate the earlier test results you reference here. Prior to the 2004 tests it was felt that the Nextel fabric would be adequate by itself for the damage sizes quoted and that those sizes could be established as the upper bound of the "No repair necessary" threshold. After the 2004 tests, it was realized that this threshold needed to be much lower. The Nextel fabric is to cover the wing side of the RCC cavity to prevent a burn thrugh of the steel plate there. This has no direct link with the question of the oxidation rate of uncoated RCC crack surface. You claimed to know data that the oxidation rate at the (uncoated) crack surface of a RCC hole would prevent any repair effort. The oxidation of the carbon would burn away most of the RCC during reentry. And you claimed NASA had during CAIB no tests, but only theoretical analyses to base one. Now I presented evidence that NASA had prior tests on RCC hole grow. And they had the experimental knowledge that the hole grow was not relevant in the Columbia case. Tom even presented a report from 2000 on the issue: http://ston.jsc.nasa.gov/collections...000-209760.pdf Its about holes by hypervelocity impact with craters, worse then the hole the foam did. The hole in Columbia`s wing probably looked like that of the CAIB tests with the SWRI gun. Somwhat smaller and no crater. That all shows NASA did a fair job in analysing the RCC oxidation issue you brought up. I still see no evidence they screwed or covered up something there prior to CAIB. And you were unable to present any evidence that later experiments proved this data wrong. You got your idea of the overlooked issue of RCC oxidation after you heard something and presented your own conclusions from it here some months ago. Incorrect. I knew about the RCC oxidation issue since I saw the presentation charts for the arcjet test results in 2004. That was long before I posted about it on Usenet. Weeks or months? You posted it first at Sonday 15 Aug. 2004 13:28: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.s...682495ca20e813 That it was "long before" just raised my doubts on your memory. Ok, let us look in this example. Show me the source. I`m very interested in the details of this test. I'm sure you are. But as far as I know, the presentation is unpublished, and I have no intention of jumping through the export-control hoops it would take to publish it. If this guys hide it behind arms trade regulations better you no longer trust em in all things. "This guys" are not hiding anything. The shuttle is on the ITAR Munitions List and all shuttle technical publications must be pre-cleared to ensure that sensitive technologies are not compromised. The presentation in question does not necessarily contain such information, but it has not received the necessary Export Control pre-clearance and I am not about to do that for the sake of a silly argument on Usenet. That previous RCC oxidation data were wrong and a repair like CAIB suggested therfore impossible - thats far beyond "the sake of a silly argument on Usenet." If your claim be true NASA would have long ago informed the Congress and the public about it. Like they did with other Return To Flight issues. They even had an independent RFT TG to supervice it. I saw in the RTF/TG documents no evidence for your claims. Maybe it was a presentation intended to mind wash some people. Highly doubtful. There were no references to Columbia at all in the presentation and there is no indication that the presenters had any motivation other than future RCC repair capability. The connection between the results of the presentation and a hypothetical Columbia repair scenario are entirely my own. Here we are. You have no data in front of you to prove your claims to yourself. You only might have the memory of something you heard once. But probably your memory mangled your own conclusion with what you heard. Thats more often the case then we want it to be. Look, face it. There is absolutly no evidence for your claim. You are the only source of this idea. No one else has brought it up. Even NASA data prior CAIB supports this CAIB conclusion. -- JRF ## CrossPoint v3.12d R ## |
#133
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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
wrote in
: The 2004 arcjet tests were higher fidelity than previous tests and therefore invalidate the earlier test results you reference here. Prior to the 2004 tests it was felt that the Nextel fabric would be adequate by itself for the damage sizes quoted and that those sizes could be established as the upper bound of the "No repair necessary" threshold. After the 2004 tests, it was realized that this threshold needed to be much lower. The Nextel fabric is to cover the wing side of the RCC cavity to prevent a burn thrugh of the steel plate there. This has no direct link with the question of the oxidation rate of uncoated RCC crack surface. No, there is a link: the belief that the Nextel fabric would be sufficient to protect the wing spar from superheated air entering from a small hole or crack in the RCC was based on the assumption that the hole/crack would not grow rapidly during entry. The 2004 arcjet test results invalidated that assumption. You got your idea of the overlooked issue of RCC oxidation after you heard something and presented your own conclusions from it here some months ago. Incorrect. I knew about the RCC oxidation issue since I saw the presentation charts for the arcjet test results in 2004. That was long before I posted about it on Usenet. Weeks or months? You posted it first at Sonday 15 Aug. 2004 13:28: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.s...682495ca20e813 That it was "long before" just raised my doubts on your memory. About six months, then. The date of the presentation was February 11, 2004. Thank you for confirming the correctness of my memory. Ok, let us look in this example. Show me the source. I`m very interested in the details of this test. I'm sure you are. But as far as I know, the presentation is unpublished, and I have no intention of jumping through the export-control hoops it would take to publish it. If this guys hide it behind arms trade regulations better you no longer trust em in all things. "This guys" are not hiding anything. The shuttle is on the ITAR Munitions List and all shuttle technical publications must be pre-cleared to ensure that sensitive technologies are not compromised. The presentation in question does not necessarily contain such information, but it has not received the necessary Export Control pre-clearance and I am not about to do that for the sake of a silly argument on Usenet. That previous RCC oxidation data were wrong and a repair like CAIB suggested therfore impossible - thats far beyond "the sake of a silly argument on Usenet." If your claim be true NASA would have long ago informed the Congress and the public about it. Managers at the program level may not necessarily have known the details. The Orbiter Return-to-Flight Working Group was a fairly low-level meeting. Sometimes technical presentations at that level are later presented directly to higher level meetings, but this particular presentation was never brought before either the PRCB or the Daily PRCB. It is more probable that the ORTFWG results were summarized and rolled-up into a less detailed presentation to higher management. And the relevant results of this one could be summarized in one statement: "RCC is more fragile than we thought, therefore RCC repair is going to be more difficult than we thought." And that statement, perhaps using different words, *was* communicated to Congress and the public, repeatedly. But that may not have been enough detail for managers to connect the dots back to the Columbia repair scenario. Even if it had been, I don't consider it a given that SSP management would have gone public about it. It would have been seen as a remnant of the "defensive" management mentality that the CAIB urged NASA to abandon. Maybe it was a presentation intended to mind wash some people. Highly doubtful. There were no references to Columbia at all in the presentation and there is no indication that the presenters had any motivation other than future RCC repair capability. The connection between the results of the presentation and a hypothetical Columbia repair scenario are entirely my own. Here we are. You have no data in front of you to prove your claims to yourself. You only might have the memory of something you heard once. But probably your memory mangled your own conclusion with what you heard. Thats more often the case then we want it to be. Look, face it. There is absolutly no evidence for your claim. You are the only source of this idea. No one else has brought it up. Even NASA data prior CAIB supports this CAIB conclusion. Well, I can assure you that the presentation exists. It is not just mangled memory; I have gone back and re-read it since this thread began, and I stand by my previous statements. I can understand your skepticism and reluctance to take my word for it, but that is all I have to offer. If that is insufficient, then further discussion is pointless. -- JRF Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail, check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and think one step ahead of IBM. |
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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
On Mon, 20 Nov 2006 19:24:54 -0600, "Jorge R. Frank"
wrote: Weeks or months? You posted it first at Sonday 15 Aug. 2004 13:28: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.s...682495ca20e813 That it was "long before" just raised my doubts on your memory. About six months, then. The date of the presentation was February 11, 2004. Thank you for confirming the correctness of my memory. ....As if any of us who mattered had any doubt, Jorge. When you're done bashing the troll's head in, please make sure you wipe up the mess. Then send his black soul to Killfile Hell where it belongs. OM -- ]=====================================[ ] OMBlog - http://www.io.com/~o_m/omworld [ ] Let's face it: Sometimes you *need* [ ] an obnoxious opinion in your day! [ ]=====================================[ |
#135
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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
On Mon, 20 Nov 2006 19:24:54 -0600, "Jorge R. Frank"
wrote: Well, I can assure you that the presentation exists. It is not just mangled memory; I have gone back and re-read it since this thread began, and I stand by my previous statements. I can understand your skepticism and reluctance to take my word for it, but that is all I have to offer. If that is insufficient, then further discussion is pointless. ....I think I speak for everyone here when I say that I'd take your word as being more reliable than any notarized fact from this particular troll. OM -- ]=====================================[ ] OMBlog - http://www.io.com/~o_m/omworld [ ] Let's face it: Sometimes you *need* [ ] an obnoxious opinion in your day! [ ]=====================================[ |
#136
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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
On Mon, 20 Nov 2006 21:12:23 -0600, OM
wrote: Well, I can assure you that the presentation exists. It is not just mangled memory; I have gone back and re-read it since this thread began, and I stand by my previous statements. I can understand your skepticism and reluctance to take my word for it, but that is all I have to offer. If that is insufficient, then further discussion is pointless. ...I think I speak for everyone here when I say that I'd take your word as being more reliable than any notarized fact from this particular troll. Seconded. Brian |
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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
Brian Thorn wrote: Seconded. The Handwaving Sergeant At Arms notes the motion has been seconded, and calls for a vote. :-) Pat |
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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
"columbiaaccidentinvestigation"
wrote: long handwaving nonsense deleted. I issued a challenge and a request for information - your unwillingness or inability to reply or provide that information is duly noted. D. -- Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh. -Resolved: To be more temperate in my postings. Oct 5th, 2004 JDL |
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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
Derek Lyons stated refering to his previous statement that i must show roger boijoly's actions warrated a no go for launch of challenger on the morning of jan 28 1986:"I issued a challenge and a request for information - your unwillingness or inability to reply or provide that information is duly noted" Actually derek what is noted is that nasa management demonstrated the same type of thinking on the morning of jan 28 1986, and that is a launch must be proven to be not safe, so in your "noting process" of my reply to you, you may want to reflect on how the rogers commission, and diaz report what critique your thought of boisjolys actions. And yes derek i went beyond you're request and showed the you the previous flights to sts-51l, sts-61c's reports which clearly demonstrates srb o ring seal burn through was occurring in cold weather launches, in addition to the history documented by the rogers commission, and changes in nasa recommended by both investigatory bodies into both tragedies. Now derek you still haven't answered my question, so with out you snipping just answer what you would have done the morning of jan 28 1986? No hand waving, no rhetoric, just answer, otherwise you cant even live up to your own standards of criticism, just correlate your words to reality, then you can state what you have said with authority, otherwise you're opinion is not backed by anybody but you. Now implementing the recommendations contained in the diaz report to the caib, in conjunction with a full quantitative risk assessment of the shuttle system would provide nasa managers with the communication structure, information, and technology to manage and understand the technical input from others up and down the decision making process in operating the shuttle safely within it's capabilities throughout the fleets retirement process. (*1) http://www.gpoaccess.gov/challenger/64_420b.pdf page (26 pdf) or 208 in the report Post-flight disassembly of STS 61-C SRB hardware following its launch on January 12 revealed that erosion of the primary O-ring had occurred in the aft field joint of the left motor. Hot gas had also bypassed the primary seal in the left nozzle joint. Erosion of the primary seal had also occurred in the nozzle joint of the right motor.6 Under the terms of the FRR Policy Directive, such damage would appear to require discussion: "the scope of the review should cover status and issues in areas such as . . . prior flight anomalies. . . ." lies. . . ." (*2) And the sts-61c srb evaluation stated: http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/ca...992075284..pdf NSTS-22301, page 4 "SOLID ROCKET BOOSTER The STS 61-C flight utilized lightweight solid rocket motor (SRM) cases. SRM propulsion performance was normal and within specification limits, with propellant burn rates for both SRM's near predicted values. Solid rocket booster (SRB) thrust differentials were within specification throughout the flight.... A postflight evaluation of the SRM structure to determine the extent of damage revealed the following significant items: a. A gas path was noted at the 154-degree position of the aft field joint of the left S_M. Soot was found from the 140-degree to the 178-degree position, and soot was found in the primary groove from the 68-degree to the 183-degree (115 degrees arc) position. C-ring damagewas noted at the 154-degree position with a maximumerosion depth of 0.00_ inch and erosion length of 3.5 inches. The 0-ring was affected by heat over a 14-inch length in this area. b. A gas path was found from the 273.6-degree to the 309.6-degree (36 degrees arc) position of the left S_Mnozzle joint. Soot was found in the primary 0-ring groove over the entire 360-degree circumference. A potential impingement point was located at the 302.4-degree point; however, no 0-ring damage was found. c. A gas path was found at the 162-degree point with soot in the primary 0-ring groove from the lOS-degree to the 220-degree (112 degrees arc) point on the right SRM nozzle joint. 0-ring damage was found at the 162-degree point with the maximum erosion depth being 0.011 inch and the erosion length being 8 inches. The 0-rlng was affected by heat over a 26-1nch length in this area. d. A gas path was found on the outer surface of the igniter at the 130-degree point of the left SRM. Soot was found on the aft side of the outer Gaskoseal, approaching the primary sea! over a 70-degree arc (130 to 200 degrees), and on the outer edge of the inner Gasko seal over a 130-degree arc (ii0 to 240 degrees), however, no seal damage was found. e. A gas path was found on the outer surface of the igniter at the 250-degree point of the right S_. Soot was found on the inside edge of the outer Gasko seal over the entire 360-degree circumference, however, it did not progress beyond the edge of the seal. There was a slight discoloration of the metal on both sides of the seal over the entire 360-degree circumference." Probabilistic Risk Analysis for the NASA Space Shuttle: A Brief History and Current Work by Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, Stanford University, and Robin Dillon, Virginia Tech Submitted for publication in Reliability Engineering and System Safety April, 2000 Schedule pressures Caib report vol 1 page 131, col 1, par 10 "Chapter 6, Decision Making at Nasa Recomedations 6.2 SCHEDULE PRESSURE Countdown to Space Station "Core Complete:" A Workforce Under Pressure During the course of this investigation, the Board received several unsolicited comments from NASA personnel regard-ing pressure to meet a schedule. These comments all con-cerned a date, more than a year after the launch of Columbia, that seemed etched in stone: February 19, 2004, the sched-uled launch date of STS-120. This flight was a milestone in the minds of NASA management since it would carry a sec-tion of the International Space Station called "Node 2." This would configure the International Space Station to its "U.S. Core Complete" status. Independent Technical Authority Caib report vol 1 page 227 col 1 "Chapter 11 Recommendations Organization R7.5-1 Establish an independent Technical Engineering Authority that is responsible for technical requirements and all waivers to them, and will build a disciplined, systematic approach to identifying, analyzing, and controlling hazards throughout the life cycle of the Shuttle System. The independent technical authority does the fol-lowing as a minimum: · Develop and maintain technical standards for all Space Shuttle Program projects and elements · Be the sole waiver-granting authority for all technical standards · Conduct trend and risk analysis at the sub-system, system, and enterprise levels · Own the failure mode, effects analysis and hazard reporting systems · Conduct integrated hazard analysis · Decide what is and is not an anomalous event · Independently verify launch readiness · Approve the provisions of the recertifica-tion program called for in Recommendation R9.1-1. The Technical Engineering Authority should be funded directly from NASA Headquarters, and should have no connection to or responsibility for schedule or program cost. R7.5-2 NASA Headquarters Office of Safety and Mis-sion Assurance should have direct line authority over the entire Space Shuttle Program safety organization and should be independently re-sourced. R7.5-3 Reorganize the Space Shuttle Integration Office to make it capable of integrating all elements of the Space Shuttle Program, including the Or-biter." Open sharing of information is crucial to improving everybody's understanding of the universe around us. Tom |
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NASA Astronaut on Columbia Repair (and others)
Derek Lyons wrote:"I issued a challenge and a request for information -
your unwillingness or inability to reply or provide that information is duly noted." Here derk I'll make it easy on you to explain "what you would have done in roger boijsoly's place", given the following factual history of the challenger tragedy specifically regarding srb O-ring seal burn through problems in cold weather launch conditions, that led to the tragic loss of the sts-51l crew, and challenger jan 28 1986. So, Derek I would like you to correlate you're thinking in this thread to the following historically correct documented facts from the rogers commission where they state the following: (*1). "The teleconference between Marshall Space Flight Center, Kennedy Space Center and Morton Thiokol, Incorporated, at Wasatch, Utah, focused attention on the advisability of launching mission 51-L and provided a clear opportunity for postponement", and stated about nasa's flight readiness review meetings prior to the tragic loss of sts-51l, (*2). "("STS 61-C (flight 24), launched on January 12, 1986, experienced nozzle joint O-ring erosion and blow-by and field joint O-ring erosion...." However, at the STS 51-L Level I Flight Readiness Review On January 15, 1986, Mr. Mulloy noted that there were "No 61-C Flight Anomalies," and that there were "No Major Problems or Issues.". And before you start youre rant about (good vs evil) again, please understand I have also provided the facts (and argued on a previous thread) to show how nasa managers would directly benefit from a full shuttle system quantitative risk assessment, in making their professional decisions to operate and retire the space shuttle safely within it's designed parameters and in compliance with all human space flight procedures. (*1) http://history.nasa.gov/rogersrep/v2appg.htm "Report of the PRESIDENTIAL COMMISSION on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident Volume 2: Appendix G - Human Factor Analysis Managers at Risk: The Human Factors of Launch Pressures The teleconference between Marshall Space Flight Center, Kennedy Space Center and Morton Thiokol, Incorporated, at Wasatch, Utah, focused attention on the advisability of launching mission 51-L and provided a clear opportunity for postponement. The decision should have been based on engineering judgments. However, other factors may have impeded or prevented effective communication and exchange of information. One factor which may have contributed significantly to the atmosphere of the teleconference at Marshall is the effect on managers of several days of irregular working hours and insufficient sleep. The extent of sleep loss was documented by Commission investigators who conducted interviews with the teleconference participants at Marshall and Kennedy specifically to reconstruct their daily activities during the five days preceding the accident. As shown in Figure 2, these interviews revealed that because of the launch scrub on January 27 certain key managers obtained only minimal sleep the night before the teleconference or had arisen so early in the morning that they had been awake and on duty for extended periods. 25 Time pressure, particularly that caused by launch scrubs and rapid turnarounds, increases the potential for sleep loss and judgment errors. This could be minimized by preventing launch support personnel, particularly managers, from combining launch support duty with office work on the same day. The willingness of NASA employees in general to work excessive hours, while admirable, raises serious questions when it jeopardizes job performance, particularly when critical management decisions are at stake." This link contains the shuttle flight readiness reviews with information that pertained to the o-ring problem prior to the launch of sts-51l (*2) http://history.nasa.gov/rogersrep/v2apph.htm "Report of the PRESIDENTIAL COMMISSION on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident Volume 2: Appendix H - Flight Readiness Review Treatment of O-ring Problems At the December 4, 1985 STS 61-C Shuttle Projects Board, Mr. Mulloy noted "SRM joint O-ring performance within experience base." The Commission's copy of the December 9, 1985 Marshall Center Board briefing was incomplete; however, at the December 11, 1985 Level I Flight Readiness Review, it was reported that there were "No 61-B flight anomalies.... STS 61-C (flight 24), launched on January 12, 1986, experienced nozzle joint O-ring erosion and blow-by and field joint O-ring erosion. The right-hand nozzle joint primary O-ring was eroded 0.011 inches over an 8 inch span at the 162° location. There was blow-by past the primary O-ring in the left-hand nozzle joint between the 255.6° and 334.8° positions. The primary O-ring in the left SRM aft field joint was eroded 0.004 inches over a 3.5 inch span at the 154° location... The STS 51-L SRB Board Flight Readiness Review On January 3, 1986, Shuttle Projects Board On January 8, 1986, and Marshall Center Board on January 13, 1986, all occurred before the STS 61-C SRBs were available for inspection. However, at the STS 51-L Level I Flight Readiness Review On January 15, 1986, Mr. Mulloy noted that there were "No 61-C Flight Anomalies," and that there were "No Major Problems or Issues."... STS 51-L (flight 25) was launched on January 28, 1986." Open sharing of information is crucial to improving everybody's understanding of the universe around us. Tom |
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