Thinking Big!

MONEY

We have the money to do what we like. A ruling oligarchy is directing that spending toward reducing human numbers.

Consider;

$5 trillion on the war that won't end in our lifetime according to Cheny.
http://nation.time.com/2011/06/29/th...war-on-terror/

$4 trillion for the cold war -
http://articles.latimes.com/1995-07-...uclear-weapons

$2.3 trillion in fraud and waste-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xU4GdHLUHwU

This is $11.3 trillion!

About the same as the DIRECT cost of World War 2.

Over the same period NASA spent $790 billion in inflation adjusted dollars, according to the OMB.

According to the White House the US Government spent a total of $172 trillion over the same period - again in inflation adjusted dollars.

What if?

What if the world was different? If the people who print the money, that is, the owners of the central banks, printed money as freely for space travel as they have done so for weapons and war and propaganda?

What might we expect with $11.3 trillion spent over the past 20 years on space travel instead of warfare?

A LARGE FLEET OF LARGE SHIPS

There are 369 ships today plying the oceans that carry more than 300,000 tons of cargo. The world's largest supertanker was built in 1979 at the Oppama shipyard by Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd. as the Seawise Giant. This ship was built with a capacity of 564,763 DWT, a length overall of 458.45 metres (1,504.1 ft) and a draft of 24.611 metres (80.74 ft). She had 46 tanks, 31,541 square metres (339,500 sq ft) of deck, 68.80 metres (225.6 ft) beam.

The Space Shuttle External tank was (153.8 ft) 46.9 m long (27.6 ft) 8.4 m in diameter and weighs (58,500 lbs) 26.5 empty and (1,680,000 lbs) 760 tons full.

Resizing the external tank to match the Seawise Giant in size and weight, we end up with a tank that's 9.05x bigger than the Space Shuttle external tank and 743.1x more massive!

This massive tank is 1,400 ft 426.8 m long, 250 ft 76.2 m in diameter. Empty it weighs 19,760 tons (43.47 million pounds) and full it weighs 567,465 tons (1.248 billion pounds!)

364 of these tanks assembled into 52 clusters of seven tanks each, form 52 three stage launchers. At $1,000 per kg each tank costs $19.76 billion. The collection $7.192 trillion.

With 84,263 tons of LH2 and 483,443 tons of LOX per tank, each tank requires the electrolysis of 758.3 million litres of water which costs with dedicated facilities $125 million per tank. All seven tanks cost $825 million to fill. Another $125 million per launch to cover launch infrastructure and processing, as well as CAPEX for the tank. We come to an even billion per launch with a vehicle that costs $120 billion to build. 2.9 TW of electrical power is needed to sustain a launch rate of 3 per 24 hour period. At $350 per kW this electrolysis plant costs $1.1 trillion.

With one launch every 8 hours, we process the entire fleet in 17 days - which gives us our turn around time. We have 21 flights per year per tank and 1,096 flights per year overall. With 450 flight cycles per tank over its useful life, we have 21 year useful life. With 18 tanks produced per year, this launch rate can be maintained. $45 million replacement cost is added to the launch cost of each tank.

Every 8 hours we launch 457,000 tons into LEO.

19,759.95 MT tank structure (x7)
547,705.27 MT tank propellant (x7)

457,000.00 MT payload


Stage 1 consists of 7 elements with a 4,429,256.51 ton Take Off Weight burns 2,190,821.06 tons S1-propellant. This burns in 7 aerospike engines that have an average exhaust velocity of 4.2 km/sec. With a propellant fraction of 0.4946 the first stage accelerates to 2.87 km/sec. Four of the tanks separate and are recovered down range. This leaves three tanks and the payload, totalling 2,159,395.65 tons which comprises the weight of Stage 2. The three big aerospikes burn through 1,095,410.53 tons which is the S2-propellant. The exhaust velocity now is 4.3 km/sec. The propellant fraction for stage 2 is 0.5073 so 3.04 km/sec is aded to the speed of the vehicle. Bringing the total speed up to 5.91 km/sec for the system. Two of the three tanks are emptied and dropped downrange. They are recovered down range and reused. The single element with payload continues firing its one massive aerospike engine. It masses 1,024,465.22 tons. This is the stage 3 mass. Stage 3 propellant is 547,705.27 tons. Exhaust velocity is 4.3 km/sec and propellant fraction is 0.5346 so 3.29 km/sec is added to the payload. The final velocity is 9.20 km/sec. After air drag and gravity losses, actual speed is 7.9 km/sec in a 420 km altitude orbit. The total payload is 457,000 METRIC TONS! Over a billion pounds!

A solar pumped thin disk laser, using a thin film concentrator, generates 20 MW per ton at 70% efficiency. So, a 400,000 ton power satellite, with a 57,000 ton kick stage, capable of taking it anywhere in the inner solar system, is capable of producing 8 trillion watts of power at 1 AU. 3.2 trillion watts at Mars. Three satellites - of this magnitude - would transform life on Earth! End the age of oil.

Photonic thrusters operating on kick stages that use the energy produced by these satellites, propel 420,000 metric tons to Mars and land it on the planet, in a matter of weeks. With return of the ship.

Now, a cruise ship like Majesty of the Sea, masses 70,000 tons and carries 2,744 passengers along with 833 crew. 420,000 tons is 6x bigger. This is 16,464 persons per launch along with 4,998 crew. With a launch of one every 8 hours we have 49,392 immigrants per day with 14,994 crew per day. A total of 18 million persons per year.

Now, the ruling elite on this planet fund warfare because since 1790, when Thomas Malthus published On Population, they felt there were too many people using too much stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSlB1nW4S54

Name of War Death Toll Dates of War Rate of Death

World War II 85,000,000 1939-1945 14,166,667
Taiping Rebel 20,000,000 1850-1864 1,428,571
World War I 17,000,000 1914-1918 4,250,000
Dungan revolt 10,000,000 1862-1877 666,667
Russian Civil 9,000,000 1917-1922 1,800,000
Chinese Civil 7,500,000 1927-1934 1,071,429
Napoleonic War 6,000,000 1803-1815 500,000
2ND Congo War 5,400,000 1998-2003 1,080,000
Vietnam War 3,800,000 1955-1975 190,000
Shaka's Conq 2,000,000 1816-1828 166,667
Mexican Rev 2,000,000 1910-1920 200,000
Soviet Afghan 1,622,865 1979-1989 162,287
Korean War 1,200,000 1950-1953 400,000
Iran-Iraq War 1,000,000 1980-1988 125,000
Biafra War 1,000,000 1967-1970 333,333

Now, 18 million per year is a rate of removal far higher than the worst war in recent history. The cost of the wars divided by the death toll, costs more per dead than each astronaut in the scenario above!

Financial Cost of World War II

1 U.S. $341 billion in 1945 $ 3,582,143,803,399 in 2005.
2 Germany $272 billion in 1945 $ 2,857,311,186,289 in 2005.
3 USSR $192 billion in 1945 $ 2,016,925,543,263 in 2005.
4 Britain $120 billion in 1945 $ 1,260,578,464,539 in 2005.
5 Italy $ 94 billion in 1945 $ 987,453,130,555 in 2005.
6 Japan $ 56 billion in 1945 $ 588,269,950,118 in 2005.

Total $1.075 trillion in 1945 $11,292,682,078,166 in 2005.

Human Cost of World War II:
Official Total Military & Civilian Deaths

Allies 44 million,
Axis 11 million,
55 million Official Total

30 million - casualties post-conflict

Country Military Civilian Total

1 USSR 13,000,000 7,000,000 20,000,000
2 China 3,500,000 10,000,000 13,500,000
3 Germany 3,500,000 3,800,000 7,300,000
4 Poland 120,000 5,300,000 5,420,000
5 Japan 1,700,000 380,000 2,080,000
6 Yugosla 300,000 1,300,000 1,600,000
7 Romania 200,000 465,000 665,000
8 France 250,000 60,000 610,000
9 British 452,000 60,000 512,000
10 Italy 330,000 80,000 410,000
11 USA 407,318 No losses 407,318
12 Hungary 120,000 280,000 400,000
13 Czechos 10,000 330,000 340,000

Space Travel is far more efficient at depopulating Earth than War. In World War 2 the cost per person killed ranges from $132,800 to $205,300 per person depending on how you want to total up the figures.

At $1 billion per launch divided by 16,464 per launch we have $60,748 per person leaving Earth forever! Less than half the cost.

We can also expect more people to engage in this activity at this level, and seek to increase it going forward.

There are lots of reasons we can say that return flights are more expensive than outbound flights. Setting the price point at the right level, in comparison to the price of an outbound flight, people can always tell themselves, they can get back. Especially if they believe they will become very wealthy in the process of settling and developing assets off world.

Increasing efficiency of ships propulsion, or number of ships, or efficiency of transport, or all three simultaneously, permits rapid increase in the number of people leaving Earth!

A 2.23x increase in all three factors, provides an 11.1x increase in the rate of people leaving Earth. This increases the rate from 18 million per year, to 200 million per year.

With 7.32 billion people growing at 1.12% per year, we have 83.45 million per year growth in human numbers. With 200 million leaving per year, we have a real reduction in population;

Year Earth Pop Off World Pop

2019 7,320.00

2020 7,203.45 200.00
2021 7,085.57 402.28
2022 6,966.34 606.87
2023 6,845.76 813.78
2024 6,723.80 1,023.06

2025 6,600.45 1,234.72
2026 6,475.70 1,448.80
2027 6,349.52 1,665.32
2028 6,221.90 1,884.30
2029 6,092.83 2,105.78

2030 5,962.29 2,329.79
2031 5,830.26 2,556.35
2032 5,696.73 2,785.49
2033 5,561.67 3,017.24
2034 5,425.07 3,251.64

2035 5,286.92 3,488.71
2036 5,147.19 3,728.48
2037 5,005.87 3,970.99
2038 4,862.94 4,216.26
2039 4,718.37 4,464.32

2040 4,572.16 4,715.21
2041 4,424.28 4,968.97
2042 4,274.72 5,225.61
2043 4,123.45 5,485.19
2044 3,970.46 5,747.72

2045 3,815.72 6,013.24
2046 3,659.22 6,281.79
2047 3,500.94 6,553.40
2048 3,340.85 6,828.11
2049 3,178.93 7,105.95

2050 3,015.17 7,386.96
2051 2,849.55 7,671.17
2052 2,682.03 7,958.62
2053 2,512.61 8,249.35
2054 2,341.25 8,543.39

2055 2,167.94 8,840.79
2056 1,992.66 9,141.57
2057 1,815.37 9,445.79
2058 1,636.07 9,753.47
2059 1,454.72 10,064.66

2060 1,271.30 10,379.40
2061 1,085.80 10,697.72
2062 898.17 11,019.68
2063 708.41 11,345.30
2064 516.49 11,674.64

2065 322.38 12,007.73

So, before the 100th anniversary of Apollo, we have reduced human numbers to less than 500 million on Earth.

Increasing vehicle numbers 7x, by converting to laser propulsion along the lines proposed by Myrabo and Kare, to make each tank a SSTO for the same 457,000 tonne payload; cutting cycle time from 18 days to 3 days; adding 7,500 persons in stasis (suspended animation - some of whome might be prisoners as in the case of Australia and New Zealand) at very low cost (less cost than incarceration), to 2,500 persons traveling animated, we have 10,000 per launch with a launch every 11 minutes - and increase from 18 million to 460 million per year after the first 10 years this changes the table accordingly;

Year Earth Pop Off World Pop

2019 7,320.00 0.00

***200 MILLION PER YEAR***

2020 7,203.45 200.00
2021 7,085.57 402.28
2022 6,966.34 606.87
2023 6,845.76 813.78
2024 6,723.80 1,023.06

2025 6,600.45 1,234.72
2026 6,475.70 1,448.80
2027 6,349.52 1,665.32
2028 6,221.90 1,884.30

***400 MILLION PER YEAR***

2029 5,892.83 2,305.78

2030 5,560.01 2,732.07
2031 5,223.40 3,163.21
2032 4,882.94 3,599.27
2033 4,538.61 4,040.31
2034 4,190.35 4,486.37

2035 3,838.12 4,937.51
2036 3,481.87 5,393.80
2037 3,121.57 5,855.29
2038 2,757.15 6,322.04
2039 2,388.58 6,794.11

2040 2,015.81 7,271.56
2041 1,638.79 7,754.46
2042 1,257.48 8,242.86
2043 871.81 8,736.83
2044 481.75 9,236.43

2045 87.24 9,741.72

***END OF PROGRAM***


This is the 100th anniversary of World War Two!

After this point we begin investing in star travel.

On Wednesday, May 27, 2015 at 12:49:01 AM UTC-4, William Mook wrote:
MONEY

We have the money to do what we like. A ruling oligarchy is directing that spending toward reducing human numbers.

Consider;


I found a shiny new penny on the pavement near the pump at the gas station this morning while filling up the car. I felt lucky, I'm a personality that *always* picks up found money no matter the amount. Then I found another and then another! Suddenly I'm three cents richer that I was before!

What if we all gave our found pennies to kickstarter space programs?
What if we mined parking lots at gas stations and Walmarts worldwide for lost money! Not to mention deposits on aluminum cans and bottles along the road! Just think what we could do!

:-)

Dave

On Thursday, May 28, 2015 at 2:52:33 AM UTC+12, David Spain wrote:
On Wednesday, May 27, 2015 at 12:49:01 AM UTC-4, William Mook wrote:
MONEY

We have the money to do what we like. A ruling oligarchy is directing that spending toward reducing human numbers.

Consider;


I found a shiny new penny on the pavement near the pump at the gas station this morning while filling up the car. I felt lucky, I'm a personality that *always* picks up found money no matter the amount. Then I found another and then another! Suddenly I'm three cents richer that I was before!

What if we all gave our found pennies to kickstarter space programs?
What if we mined parking lots at gas stations and Walmarts worldwide for lost money! Not to mention deposits on aluminum cans and bottles along the road! Just think what we could do!

:-)

Dave

According to the Treasury there is $2.5 billion worth of pennies are in circulation and $1.2 trillion of physical money in circulation.

In non-physical money there is $220 trillion in demand deposits around the world. There is $4.2 quadrillion in debt instruments in circulation.

Now, about 3% of all physical money is lost in the manner you describe according to insurers.

Some of that will never be recovered due to the nature of paper and metals.

However, even if all lost pennies could be recovered $75 million would be retrieved in this way.

It is likely the level of effort required to retrieve this cash would be better spent in other more productive activities.

If we include paper money this is no more than $36 billion which could be found in this way. A greater sum to be sure, but again this must be contrasted with the level of effort and it is not likely worth the effort.

Now, money can be lost electronically as well as physically!

Again, insurers estimate that 1.8% of all electronic transactions are mis-reported, and add something like 0.3% to the overall cost of monetary transactions done electronically.

This amounts to $660 billion against the $220 trillion in demand deposits in the banks today and a monumental $12 trillion against the $4 Quadrillion in derivative debt!

These debts are so large they are not insured in any meaningful way by insurers. The banks engage in swaps and other transactions to limit risk of loss from these sources.

Its clear that a computer savvy team of programmers and accountants could use their skill to scour the demand deposits and derivative debt in the world's banking system to find and retrieve $12.7 trillion of lost electronic funds.

This is on the order of the $11.3 trillion we're discussing here, and may well be worth the effort.

Just as it was possible in the past to receive a letter of marque and reprisal from a government, which gave license authorizing a person (known as a privateer) to attack and capture enemy vessels and bring them before admiralty courts for condemnation and sale, such digital privateers could be given authorization to attack and capture computing systems and bring them before a digital court for determination of value and sale. A portion retained by the government to reduce its debts, and a portion retained by the privateers, who could donate a portion to fund a large space program similar to one outlined here.

On Wednesday, May 27, 2015 at 11:15:56 PM UTC+12, Fred J. McCall wrote:
William Mook wrote:

MONEY

We have the money to do what we like. A ruling oligarchy is directing that spending toward reducing human numbers.


Absolute bull****.

Not really.

MookSpew removed

Ignoring reality doesn't change it, doing so only makes you more vulnerable.

--
"Ordinarily he is insane. But he has lucid moments when he is
only stupid."
-- Heinrich Heine