Our future as a species - Fermi Paradox revisted - Where they all are

On Tue, 4 Nov 2003 15:31:01 -0600, in a place far, far away, "Jim
Davis" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:

"Rand Simberg" wrote...

Do you have any eivdence that there is a sufficient market for trips to
the
moon?

Of course, but there's no point in presenting it to you, because you
don't accept evidence--you demand *proof*, which of course no one has,
or will have, until it actually occurs.

Could you present it to the rest of us?

I've done so on numerous occasions. You didn't find it compelling,
which is fine, since I'm not asking you for money.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

In article ,
h (Rand Simberg) wrote:

On Tue, 04 Nov 2003 23:15:51 +1100, in a place far, far away, Stephen
Souter made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:


I've been told that one of the reasons many Americans do not visit
Australia is because they are put off by the long plane flight just to
get there. Instead they prefer to visit some place closer like Europe.

That is true. It is also true that many Americans *do* visit
Australia, so once again, you have no useful point, since no one
claimed that everyone will want to go to the moon.

I was responding to a comment (which you have conveniently snipped) that
"people will go to" the Moon ("because it *is* the Moon, and not merely
a place that 'looks like' the Moon") once the "cheap enough" point is
reached.

I merely pointed out that it may not necessarily be that simple. Other
factors may deter some people from going who might otherwise could
afford to have gone and might have gone.

If you find that not "useful", then my apologies. I never claimed to be
able to open a closed mind.

--
Stephen Souter

http://www.edfac.usyd.edu.au/staff/souters/

On Wed, 05 Nov 2003 16:19:10 +1100, in a place far, far away, Stephen
Souter made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

I've been told that one of the reasons many Americans do not visit
Australia is because they are put off by the long plane flight just to
get there. Instead they prefer to visit some place closer like Europe.

That is true. It is also true that many Americans *do* visit
Australia, so once again, you have no useful point, since no one
claimed that everyone will want to go to the moon.

I was responding to a comment (which you have conveniently snipped) that
"people will go to" the Moon ("because it *is* the Moon, and not merely
a place that 'looks like' the Moon") once the "cheap enough" point is
reached.

And that comment remains reasonable, and not in any way repudiated by
anything with which you've chosen to pollute Usenet.

I merely pointed out that it may not necessarily be that simple. Other
factors may deter some people from going who might otherwise could
afford to have gone and might have gone.

Since no one sensible ever claimed otherwise (cite?), your point
remains pointless.

If you find that not "useful", then my apologies. I never claimed to be
able to open a closed mind.

No one with any sense ever claimed that you made such an idiotic
claim. So once again, you waste bandwidth.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

In article ,
h (Rand Simberg) wrote:

On Wed, 05 Nov 2003 16:19:10 +1100, in a place far, far away, Stephen
Souter made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

If you find that not "useful", then my apologies. I never claimed to be
able to open a closed mind.

No one with any sense ever claimed that you made such an idiotic
claim. So once again, you waste bandwidth.

Rand, you have a mind like a steel trap. I thought you'd at least
recognise sarcasm in the flesh.

--
Stephen Souter

http://www.edfac.usyd.edu.au/staff/souters/

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 4 Nov 2003 15:31:01 -0600, in a place far, far away, "Jim
Davis" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:

"Rand Simberg" wrote...

Do you have any eivdence that there is a sufficient market for trips
to
the
moon?

Of course, but there's no point in presenting it to you, because you
don't accept evidence--you demand *proof*, which of course no one has,
or will have, until it actually occurs.

I have done no such thing. Please refrain from lying.

Could you present it to the rest of us?

I've done so on numerous occasions. You didn't find it compelling,
which is fine, since I'm not asking you for money.

You know you keep saying this, but repeating it doesn't make it true.

You have not presented any evidence concerning the size of the market for
travel to the moon. You have *referred* to some private and confidential
studies which you claim show that there is a mass market for travel to LEO -
but as you will not actually share that information, we cannot decide for
ourselves how good it is.

On Wed, 5 Nov 2003 09:12:03 +0000 (UTC), in a place far, far away,
"Dave" made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:


"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
. ..
On Tue, 4 Nov 2003 15:31:01 -0600, in a place far, far away, "Jim
Davis" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:

"Rand Simberg" wrote...

Do you have any eivdence that there is a sufficient market for trips
to
the
moon?

Of course, but there's no point in presenting it to you, because you
don't accept evidence--you demand *proof*, which of course no one has,
or will have, until it actually occurs.

I have done no such thing. Please refrain from lying.

It's not a lie. It's a reasonably interpretation of all your responses
in this matter.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me.
Here's my email address for autospammers:

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 5 Nov 2003 09:12:03 +0000 (UTC), in a place far, far away,
"Dave" made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:


"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
. ..
On Tue, 4 Nov 2003 15:31:01 -0600, in a place far, far away, "Jim
Davis" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:

"Rand Simberg" wrote...

Do you have any eivdence that there is a sufficient market for
trips
to
the
moon?

Of course, but there's no point in presenting it to you, because you
don't accept evidence--you demand *proof*, which of course no one
has,
or will have, until it actually occurs.

I have done no such thing. Please refrain from lying.

It's not a lie. It's a reasonably interpretation of all your responses
in this matter.

No, actually it is no such thing. It is you chosing to answer the questions
you would like to have been asked.

Please post some evidence supporting your stance of a mass market other than
the fact that you and a number of people you have met want to do it.

Selection effects are well documented and should not be mistaken for a mass
market - lots and lots of people have lost money because they have not
recognised that.

Selection effects are well documented and should not be mistaken for a mass
market - lots and lots of people have lost money because they have not
recognised that.

Yes. Excactly. Here's the process for getting reasonably accurate
market number.

1) Identify your target demographic - this is usually a function of
how much the item will cost, what kind of person would be interested,
etc. etc.

2) Do a survey that figures out how many of those people say they
would be interested in the product

3) Calculate a range of between two and five percent of that number.
That's the approximate size of your market.