Are we alone in our universe, are we alone in our galaxy? Most unlikely.

The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. Of course these numbers are a good
bait for a discussion.

With 200 billion galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars, there are
roughly 20,000 billion billion stars in the visible universe.
That is 20,000 - 000,000,000 - 000,000,000 stars.

Assume each galaxy has at least one planet with intelligent life on it
(at our level or better) (this is a very very conservative estimate)
then there are 200, 000,000,000 civilizations in the visible universe.

How many of these would be 1 million or 10 million or 100 million
years
ahead of us, assuming the universe is approximately 15 billion years
old and 100 million years is only 0.66% of this timespan?
100 million years is only 0.66% of the total timespan!

So it is easy to contemplate that there can be millions of those
civilizations 1% or 1 or 10 million years or more ahead of us. Of
course, out of the 200 billion civilizations 99% or more may have
become extinct. So if we assume that 1% avoided destruction, that
still
leaves 2 billion civilizations that survived, colonized other galaxies
and/or
are travelling for millions of years,

Assuming some are in galaxies over 1 billion light years away from
our Milky Way galaxy, then if they travelled e.g. in cryogenic
state for over 500 million years at the speed of light, they still
would not have reached us. This assumes that speed of light is the
upper
limit.

In a nutshell, the numbers are so large, even if you multiply a very
low probability factor times a huge number you will get a sizable
number. And I think that that probability factor is not that
small, but much higher than one advanced planet per galaxy of
100 billion stars. That means we are not alone in our own galaxy
with its 200-500 billion stars. If I assume one 'more-advanced'
civilization per 10 million stars, there would be 20,000 - 50,000
of such 'more-advanced' civilizations in our own galaxy.

Of course, all these numbers are wild guesses/speculation but
it is an illustration of the fact that when we talk about our galaxy
and our visible universe the numbers are 'astronomically' huge,

As the numbers are so huge, Carl Sagan's billions and billions,
I believe that most galaxies have many millions of habitable
planets with life.

If you asked me to guess how many 'more-advanced' civilizations there
are in our own Milky Way, I would say many more than 20,000.

If you asked me why 'they' have not contacted us, I would say I don't
know, maybe we are not advanced enough - yet.

On Apr 21, 5:17*am, "Carl Sagan's billions"
wrote:
The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. *Of course these numbers are a good
bait for a discussion.

With 200 billion galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars, there are
roughly 20,000 billion billion stars in the visible universe.
That is 20,000 - 000,000,000 - 000,000,000 stars.

Assume each galaxy has at least one planet with intelligent life on it
(at our level or better) (this is a very very conservative estimate)
then there are 200, 000,000,000 civilizations in the visible universe.

How many of these would be 1 million or 10 million or 100 million
years
ahead of us, assuming the universe is approximately 15 billion years
old and 100 million years is only 0.66% of this timespan?
100 million years is only 0.66% of the total timespan!

So it is easy to contemplate that there can be millions of those
civilizations 1% or 1 or 10 million years or more ahead of us. Of
course, out of the 200 billion civilizations 99% or more may have
become extinct. *So if we assume that 1% avoided destruction, that
still
leaves 2 billion civilizations that survived, colonized other galaxies
and/or
are travelling for millions of years,

Assuming some are in galaxies over 1 billion light years away from
our Milky Way galaxy, then if they travelled e.g. in cryogenic
state for over 500 million years at the speed of light, they still
would not have reached us. This assumes that speed of light is the
upper
limit.

In a nutshell, the numbers are so large, even if you multiply a very
low probability factor times a huge number you will get a sizable
number. *And I think that that probability factor is not that
small, but much higher than one advanced planet per galaxy of
100 billion stars. That means we are not alone in our own galaxy
with its 200-500 billion stars. *If I assume one 'more-advanced'
civilization per 10 million stars, there would be 20,000 - 50,000
of such 'more-advanced' civilizations in our own galaxy.

Of course, all these numbers are wild guesses/speculation but
it is an illustration of the fact that when we talk about our galaxy
and our visible universe the numbers are 'astronomically' huge,

As the numbers are so huge, Carl Sagan's billions and billions,
I believe that most galaxies have many millions of habitable
planets with life.

If you asked me to guess how many 'more-advanced' civilizations there
are in our own Milky Way, I would say many more than 20,000.

If you asked me why 'they' have not contacted us, I would say I don't
know, maybe we are not advanced enough - yet.

On Apr 21, 5:17*am, "Carl Sagan's billions"
wrote:
The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. *Of course these numbers are a good
bait for a discussion.


We have no basis for calculating the probability of life elsewhere.
Crevices in some meterorites suggested that they were due to bacteria
but this is speculation. Until there is firm evidence of life elswhere
we must assume that we are probably unique.

Cormac.

On Apr 21, 5:29*pm, Cormac wrote:
On Apr 21, 5:17*am, "Carl Sagan's billions"
wrote:

The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. *Of course these numbers are a good
bait for a discussion.

We have no basis for calculating the probability of life elsewhere.
Crevices in some meterorites suggested that they were due to bacteria
but this is speculation. Until there is firm evidence of life elswhere
we must assume that we are probably unique.

Cormac.

No!

"Carl Sagan's billions" wrote in message
...
The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. Of course these numbers are a good
bait for a discussion.

You might want to find one of Isaac Asimov's non-fiction books called
"Extraterrestrial Civilizations". It was written in the late 70's, so some
of the science is a little dated, but it's still a good read. His
conclusion was that there are probably about 530,000 technological
civilisations in our galaxy, and he offers some good reasons for their lack
of contact with Earth.

On Apr 20, 11:17*pm, "Carl Sagan's billions"
wrote:
The probability that we are alone in our universe is lower than
1/200 billion. The probability that we are alone in our galaxy is
lower than 1/billion. *Of course these numbers are a good
bait for a discussion.

With 200 billion galaxies, each with over 100 billion stars, there are
roughly 20,000 billion billion stars in the visible universe.
That is 20,000 - 000,000,000 - 000,000,000 stars.

Assume each galaxy has at least one planet with intelligent life on it
(at our level or better) (this is a very very conservative estimate)
then there are 200, 000,000,000 civilizations in the visible universe.

How many of these would be 1 million or 10 million or 100 million
years
ahead of us, assuming the universe is approximately 15 billion years
old and 100 million years is only 0.66% of this timespan?
100 million years is only 0.66% of the total timespan!

So it is easy to contemplate that there can be millions of those
civilizations 1% or 1 or 10 million years or more ahead of us. Of
course, out of the 200 billion civilizations 99% or more may have
become extinct. *So if we assume that 1% avoided destruction, that
still
leaves 2 billion civilizations that survived, colonized other galaxies
and/or
are travelling for millions of years,

Assuming some are in galaxies over 1 billion light years away from
our Milky Way galaxy, then if they travelled e.g. in cryogenic
state for over 500 million years at the speed of light, they still
would not have reached us. This assumes that speed of light is the
upper
limit.

In a nutshell, the numbers are so large, even if you multiply a very
low probability factor times a huge number you will get a sizable
number. *And I think that that probability factor is not that
small, but much higher than one advanced planet per galaxy of
100 billion stars. That means we are not alone in our own galaxy
with its 200-500 billion stars. *If I assume one 'more-advanced'
civilization per 10 million stars, there would be 20,000 - 50,000
of such 'more-advanced' civilizations in our own galaxy.

Of course, all these numbers are wild guesses/speculation but
it is an illustration of the fact that when we talk about our galaxy
and our visible universe the numbers are 'astronomically' huge,

As the numbers are so huge, Carl Sagan's billions and billions,
I believe that most galaxies have many millions of habitable
planets with life.

If you asked me to guess how many 'more-advanced' civilizations there
are in our own Milky Way, I would say many more than 20,000.

If you asked me why 'they' have not contacted us, I would say I don't
know, maybe we are not advanced enough - yet.

The chance as determined by Scientists that theres another place like
Earth (not exact, but like) is : 10x99th power . Thats how finetuned
the cosmos is for Earth to be here and depends on over 150 extremely
extremely narrowly defined Physics Constants otherwise we arent
here. It doesnt matter how many stars, planets, solar systems,
galaxies there are .... just like it doesnt matter how many raw
materials like mudslides, sun, rain, chance, and time you have to try
and produce the faces at Mt. Rushmore . Therefore, the SETI program
is a complete waste of time and money and they havent found even
one semblence of intelligent transmission in all the years its been
in operation.

On Thu, 21 Apr 2011 06:10:30 -0700 (PDT), "
wrote:

The chance as determined by Scientists that theres another place like
Earth (not exact, but like) is : 10x99th power .

OK, that's a new lie on your part. Did you just make it up, or did you
get it from a Creationist website?

Thats how finetuned
the cosmos is for Earth to be here and depends on over 150 extremely
extremely narrowly defined Physics Constants otherwise we arent
here.

And that's an old lie on your part, but if it was true, it would
refute your first lie.

It doesnt matter how many stars, planets, solar systems,
galaxies there are ....

You've said elsewhere that it does. Make up your mind already.

On Apr 21, 6:41*am, "Androcles" .
2011 wrote to Dimwitted Dave, the spamming fundy ****wit:

You pulled that idiot **** out of your arse,

Sure smells like he did...or maybe it was from his boyfriend's ass?

wrote:

The chance as determined by Scientists that theres another place like
Earth (not exact, but like) is : 10x99th power . Thats how finetuned

Hmm, that doesn't sound right, as probabilities are numbers between 0 and 1.
My guess is you don't know much about mathematics. From my own discussions
with scientists engaged in work such as "search for planets" by astronomical
methods, and reading articles in the literature, they seem to put the
probability at 99%+ that something Earthlike will be found fairly soon (say
in a decade or so). Already, they have found objects that seem to have
relatively small masses and high densities, sort of "super-Earths".

the cosmos is for Earth to be here and depends on over 150 extremely
extremely narrowly defined Physics Constants otherwise we arent

I'll have to tell Sir Martin Rees (Lord Rees of Ludlow), former President of
The Royal Society, Astronomer Royal for England, and Templeton Prize winner,
about your exciting new theory, because he wrote a well-known book a few
years ago about the fine tuning of the universe, and titled it, "Just Six
Numbers". Where do you get 150???

here. It doesnt matter how many stars, planets, solar systems,
galaxies there are .... just like it doesnt matter how many raw

Really? Oh, my.

materials like mudslides, sun, rain, chance, and time you have to try
and produce the faces at Mt. Rushmore . Therefore, the SETI program
is a complete waste of time and money and they havent found even
one semblence of intelligent transmission in all the years its been
in operation.

Lucky for you then, that SETI is entirely privately funded by people who had
enough wits about them to make a few billion $ and spend some of it on such
wastes of money.

Actually, there have been a number of possible artificial signals seen
(semblances), but none have yet been proven to be extraterrestrial.

You really haven't made your point very well. In fact, not at all.

--
Mike Dworetsky

(Remove pants sp*mbl*ck to reply)

On Apr 21, 7:37*am, "Mike Dworetsky"
wrote:


Don't expect an answer, rational or otherwise from Dimwitted Dave