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Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century



 
 
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  #11  
Old May 5th 16, 10:09 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
SlurpieMcDoublegulp
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 134
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:58:16 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:39:10 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:37:13 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:35:00 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:29:11 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:20:21 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:18:09 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:17:44 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
Scorching temperatures brought on by climate change could leave large swaths of the Middle East and North Africa uninhabitable by the middle of this century, a new study predicts.

Researchers at Germany's Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia crunched the numbers and found that this area, a "climate change hotspot" where days of extreme heat have doubled since 1970, could soon be plagued by weather so brutal that it triggers a "climate exodus."

On the hottest of days, temperatures in North Africa and the Middle East can reach highs of around 109 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the findings. But that figure could soar to 114 degrees by 2050, and 122 degrees by 2100 -- extremes the researchers say could have "important consequences for human health and society."

Study lead author Jos Lelieveld, director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and a professor at The Cyprus Institute, says the change in climate could jeopardize the very existence of the area's 500 million inhabitants.

"Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate," Lelieveld said in a statement.

By analyzing climate data dating back to 1986, the researchers were able to forecast temperatures through the 21st century. Their calculations were based on two different possible scenarios: They first analyzed what would happen if global carbon emissions were reduced by mid-century, and then looked at what would happen if humans continue releasing greenhouse gases at a rate that's "business as usual."

The study, published in the journal Climate Change, shows that either way, the region south of the Mediterranean Sea should be ready not just for blazing temperatures, but also for lengthier heat waves.

Between 1986 and 2005, heat waves in the region lasted an average of 16 days, according to the findings. Under the researchers' more moderate scenario, the average length could reach 80 days by mid-century and 118 days by 2100. And if we humans do nothing to reduce our carbon footprint, the projections suggest people in this area can expect 200 unusually hot days per year by the end of the century.

Regardless of which scenario plays out, the paper's authors say "climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region."

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University who was not involved in the study, said the prediction of a climate exodus in this region is "not at all surprising."

"This study," he said via email, "is just part of a slew of recent studies that have shown that warmth will literally exceed the range of human habitability over an increasingly large swath of Earth's land regions if we fail to curtail our burning of fossil fuels. Yet another clarion call for climate action as if we needed it."

The study echoes the findings of a March paper co-authored by James Hansen, an adjunct professor at Columbia University's Earth Institute, which found summers in tropical locations, including the Middle East, will be too hot for humans to live through by 2100.

By Sebastien Malo

NEW YORK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Economies across large swathes of the globe could shrink dramatically by mid-century as fresh water grows scarce due to climate change, the World Bank reported on Tuesday.

The Middle East could be hardest hit, with its gross domestic product slipping as much as 14 percent by 2050 unless measures are taken to reallocate water significantly, the Washington-based institution said in a report.

Such measures include efficiency efforts and investment in technologies such as desalination and water recycling, it said.

Global warming can cause extreme floods and droughts and can mean snowfall is replaced by rain, with higher evaporation rates, experts say.

It also can reduce mountain snow pack that provides water, and the melting of inland glaciers can deplete the source of runoff, they say. Also, a rise in sea level can lead to sal****er contaminating groundwater.

"When we look at any of the major impacts of climate change, they one way or the other come through water, whether it's drought, floods, storms, sea level rise," Richard Damania, World Bank lead economist and lead author of the report, told reporters in a telephone conference.

Fresh water shortages could take a toll on sectors from agriculture to energy, the World Bank said.

"Water is of course at the centre of life, but it's also at the centre of economic activity," Damania said.

Water scarcity would not have the same impact worldwide, and Western Europe and North American economies would likely be spared, according to the World Bank models.

But rising economies such as China and India could be hard hit, it said.

In the Sahel belt that stretches across Africa below the Sahara, GDP could well dip some 11 percent with water scarcity, the World Bank said.. A similar impact would be felt in Central Asia, it said.

But measures to reallocate fresh water could show gains in some regions, the bank said.

For example, a shift in allocation could lead to GDP growth of about 11 percent by 2050 in Central Asia, the bank said.

The World Bank also advocated pricing water consumption, a proposal that has stirred controversy and is opposed by those who do not think water should not have any price tag.

"If you're making money out of water, particularly if you're using a lot of water as a commercial user, then it's reasonable to suggest that you pay minimally enough to cover the cost of providing you with that water," Damania said.

"This might well mean free water if you are exceedingly poor," he said.

About a quarter of the world's population, or some 1.6 billion people, live in countries where water already is scarce, according to the World Bank.

Last month, 175 nations signed a deal reached last year in Paris to slow global warming and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

(Reporting by Sebastien Malo, Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst)

Many of the largest U.S. investment funds, including pensions, are doing nothing to protect their investors' savings from the financial risks posed by climate change, according to an analysis by the Asset Owners Disclosure Project, a nonprofit. At least 117 American funds, with a combined $4..6 trillion in assets, have taken no action to mitigate the risks associated with a warming planet.

"It simply isn't professional for the funds to do nothing," Julian Poulter, the group's CEO, told The Huffington Post.

Indeed, there have been warning signs for quite some time that big investors, from a purely financial perspective, need to think hard about fossil fuels. The S&P 500 stock index is up around 50 percent from 10 years ago. Oil stocks over the same period are up just over 1 percent.

And business is arguably only going to get harder. Global financial regulators are starting to work out a standard system for companies to voluntarily disclose climate risks, the governor of the Bank of England has warned insurance companies that they're at risk of being wiped out by climate change, and Saudi Arabia wants to kick its oil habit.

A 2013 report from England's Institute and Faculty of Actuaries found that under business-as-usual policies, resource scarcity associated with a changing climate could stall the global economy and cause pension funds to be unable to pay out benefits.

ABC's Jimmy Kimmel took a swing at former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on his late-night talk show Monday, criticizing the Republican for denying that climate change is real.

"No matter what Sarah Palin and these geniuses she surrounds herself with try to tell you, climate change is not a liberal versus conservative thing," Kimmel said. "But the people who profit from ignoring it want you to believe it is."

Kimmel enlisted a group of scientists to ensure Palin that talk about climate change is no joke.

"When we tell you all this, we're not ****ing with you," several scientists said in a video shown on Kimmel's show.

Palin is currently promoting a new anti-climate change documentary called "Climate Hustle," and has a long history of denying that humans contribute to climate change.

"Our politicians debate this, but our scientists don't," Kimmel said.


There was a recent NPR segment about Republican mayors who have to actually deal repercussions of climate change being a total odds with the state and national level Republicans who have been bribed to lie about climate change.

It was pretty funny when Gov. Brown (D-CA) very nicely supplied Gov. Scott (R-FL) with a scientific report about the billions upon billions of property damage being projected for FL waterfront property by 2030, and the billions upon billions more on top of that by 2050. Gov. Brown politely suggested Gov. Scott might like to read it even if Gov. Scott was busy ordering FL government officials to not mention climate change.


A majority of Donald Trump supporters believe man-made climate change is happening, despite the presidential candidate's history of global warming denial, a poll released Wednesday found.

The survey, conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, found that 56 percent of people supporting Trump in the 2016 race think global warming is real. Among John Kasich voters, that percentage jumps to 71, while only 36 percent of Ted Cruz's supporters believe in man-made climate change. (Kasich and Cruz both left the presidential race after Indiana's primary.)

Trump voters were also more likely to back a presidential candidate if he or she strongly supported addressing global warming.

Meanwhile, nearly all Democratic voters -- 93 percent of Bernie Sanders backers and 92 percent of Hillary Clinton supporters -- believe in global warming.


It should come as no surprise that human activity is causing the world's oceans to warm, rise and acidify.

But an equally troubling impact of climate change is that it is beginning to rob the oceans of oxygen.

While ocean deoxygenation is well established, a new study led by Matthew Long, an oceanographer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, finds that climate change-driven oxygen loss is already detectable in certain swaths of ocean and will likely be "widespread" by 2030 or 2040.

Ultimately, Long told The Huffington Post, oxygen-deprived oceans may have "significant impacts on marine ecosystems" and leave some areas of ocean all but uninhabitable for certain species.

While some ocean critters, like dolphins and whales, get their oxygen by surfacing, many, including fish and crabs, rely on oxygen that either enters the water from the atmosphere or is released by phytoplankton via photosynthesis.

But as the ocean surface warms, it absorbs less oxygen. And to make matters worse, oxygen in warmer water, which is less dense, has a tough time circulating to deeper waters.

For their study, published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Long and his team used simulations to predict ocean deoxygenation through 2100..

"Since oxygen concentrations in the ocean naturally vary depending on variations in winds and temperature at the surface, it's been challenging to attribute any deoxygenation to climate change," Long said in a statement. "This new study tells us when we can expect the impact from climate change to overwhelm the natural variability."

By 2030 or 2040, according to the study, deoxygenation due to climate change will be detectable in large swaths of the Pacific Ocean, including the areas surrounding Hawaii and off the West Coast of the U.S. mainland. Other areas have more time. In the seas near the east coasts of Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia, for example, deoxygenation caused by climate change still won't be evident by 2100.

Long said the eventual suffocation may affect the ability of ocean ecosystems to sustain healthy fisheries. The concern among the scientific community, he said, is that "we're conceivably pushing past tipping points" in being able to prevent the damage.

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, shared these concerns, telling The Washington Post that the new study adds to the "list of insults we are inflicting on the ocean through our continued burning of fossil fuels."

"Just a week after learning that 93 (percent) of the Great Barrier Reef has experienced bleaching in response to the unprecedented current warmth of the oceans, we have yet another reason to be gravely concerned about the health of our oceans, and yet another reason to prioritize the rapid decarbonization of our economy," Mann said.

Unfortunately, this reason is unlikely to be the last.
  #12  
Old May 5th 16, 10:29 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
SlurpieMcDoublegulp
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 134
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 4:10:00 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:58:16 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:39:10 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:37:13 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:35:00 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:29:11 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:20:21 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:18:09 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:17:44 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
Scorching temperatures brought on by climate change could leave large swaths of the Middle East and North Africa uninhabitable by the middle of this century, a new study predicts.

Researchers at Germany's Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia crunched the numbers and found that this area, a "climate change hotspot" where days of extreme heat have doubled since 1970, could soon be plagued by weather so brutal that it triggers a "climate exodus."

On the hottest of days, temperatures in North Africa and the Middle East can reach highs of around 109 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the findings. But that figure could soar to 114 degrees by 2050, and 122 degrees by 2100 -- extremes the researchers say could have "important consequences for human health and society."

Study lead author Jos Lelieveld, director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and a professor at The Cyprus Institute, says the change in climate could jeopardize the very existence of the area's 500 million inhabitants.

"Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate," Lelieveld said in a statement.

By analyzing climate data dating back to 1986, the researchers were able to forecast temperatures through the 21st century. Their calculations were based on two different possible scenarios: They first analyzed what would happen if global carbon emissions were reduced by mid-century, and then looked at what would happen if humans continue releasing greenhouse gases at a rate that's "business as usual."

The study, published in the journal Climate Change, shows that either way, the region south of the Mediterranean Sea should be ready not just for blazing temperatures, but also for lengthier heat waves.

Between 1986 and 2005, heat waves in the region lasted an average of 16 days, according to the findings. Under the researchers' more moderate scenario, the average length could reach 80 days by mid-century and 118 days by 2100. And if we humans do nothing to reduce our carbon footprint, the projections suggest people in this area can expect 200 unusually hot days per year by the end of the century.

Regardless of which scenario plays out, the paper's authors say "climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region."

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University who was not involved in the study, said the prediction of a climate exodus in this region is "not at all surprising."

"This study," he said via email, "is just part of a slew of recent studies that have shown that warmth will literally exceed the range of human habitability over an increasingly large swath of Earth's land regions if we fail to curtail our burning of fossil fuels. Yet another clarion call for climate action as if we needed it."

The study echoes the findings of a March paper co-authored by James Hansen, an adjunct professor at Columbia University's Earth Institute, which found summers in tropical locations, including the Middle East, will be too hot for humans to live through by 2100.

By Sebastien Malo

NEW YORK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Economies across large swathes of the globe could shrink dramatically by mid-century as fresh water grows scarce due to climate change, the World Bank reported on Tuesday.

The Middle East could be hardest hit, with its gross domestic product slipping as much as 14 percent by 2050 unless measures are taken to reallocate water significantly, the Washington-based institution said in a report.

Such measures include efficiency efforts and investment in technologies such as desalination and water recycling, it said.

Global warming can cause extreme floods and droughts and can mean snowfall is replaced by rain, with higher evaporation rates, experts say..

It also can reduce mountain snow pack that provides water, and the melting of inland glaciers can deplete the source of runoff, they say. Also, a rise in sea level can lead to sal****er contaminating groundwater.

"When we look at any of the major impacts of climate change, they one way or the other come through water, whether it's drought, floods, storms, sea level rise," Richard Damania, World Bank lead economist and lead author of the report, told reporters in a telephone conference.

Fresh water shortages could take a toll on sectors from agriculture to energy, the World Bank said.

"Water is of course at the centre of life, but it's also at the centre of economic activity," Damania said.

Water scarcity would not have the same impact worldwide, and Western Europe and North American economies would likely be spared, according to the World Bank models.

But rising economies such as China and India could be hard hit, it said.

In the Sahel belt that stretches across Africa below the Sahara, GDP could well dip some 11 percent with water scarcity, the World Bank said. A similar impact would be felt in Central Asia, it said.

But measures to reallocate fresh water could show gains in some regions, the bank said.

For example, a shift in allocation could lead to GDP growth of about 11 percent by 2050 in Central Asia, the bank said.

The World Bank also advocated pricing water consumption, a proposal that has stirred controversy and is opposed by those who do not think water should not have any price tag.

"If you're making money out of water, particularly if you're using a lot of water as a commercial user, then it's reasonable to suggest that you pay minimally enough to cover the cost of providing you with that water," Damania said.

"This might well mean free water if you are exceedingly poor," he said.

About a quarter of the world's population, or some 1.6 billion people, live in countries where water already is scarce, according to the World Bank.

Last month, 175 nations signed a deal reached last year in Paris to slow global warming and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

(Reporting by Sebastien Malo, Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst)

Many of the largest U.S. investment funds, including pensions, are doing nothing to protect their investors' savings from the financial risks posed by climate change, according to an analysis by the Asset Owners Disclosure Project, a nonprofit. At least 117 American funds, with a combined $4.6 trillion in assets, have taken no action to mitigate the risks associated with a warming planet.

"It simply isn't professional for the funds to do nothing," Julian Poulter, the group's CEO, told The Huffington Post.

Indeed, there have been warning signs for quite some time that big investors, from a purely financial perspective, need to think hard about fossil fuels. The S&P 500 stock index is up around 50 percent from 10 years ago. Oil stocks over the same period are up just over 1 percent.

And business is arguably only going to get harder. Global financial regulators are starting to work out a standard system for companies to voluntarily disclose climate risks, the governor of the Bank of England has warned insurance companies that they're at risk of being wiped out by climate change, and Saudi Arabia wants to kick its oil habit.

A 2013 report from England's Institute and Faculty of Actuaries found that under business-as-usual policies, resource scarcity associated with a changing climate could stall the global economy and cause pension funds to be unable to pay out benefits.

ABC's Jimmy Kimmel took a swing at former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on his late-night talk show Monday, criticizing the Republican for denying that climate change is real.

"No matter what Sarah Palin and these geniuses she surrounds herself with try to tell you, climate change is not a liberal versus conservative thing," Kimmel said. "But the people who profit from ignoring it want you to believe it is."

Kimmel enlisted a group of scientists to ensure Palin that talk about climate change is no joke.

"When we tell you all this, we're not ****ing with you," several scientists said in a video shown on Kimmel's show.

Palin is currently promoting a new anti-climate change documentary called "Climate Hustle," and has a long history of denying that humans contribute to climate change.

"Our politicians debate this, but our scientists don't," Kimmel said.

There was a recent NPR segment about Republican mayors who have to actually deal repercussions of climate change being a total odds with the state and national level Republicans who have been bribed to lie about climate change.

It was pretty funny when Gov. Brown (D-CA) very nicely supplied Gov. Scott (R-FL) with a scientific report about the billions upon billions of property damage being projected for FL waterfront property by 2030, and the billions upon billions more on top of that by 2050. Gov. Brown politely suggested Gov. Scott might like to read it even if Gov. Scott was busy ordering FL government officials to not mention climate change.


A majority of Donald Trump supporters believe man-made climate change is happening, despite the presidential candidate's history of global warming denial, a poll released Wednesday found.

The survey, conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, found that 56 percent of people supporting Trump in the 2016 race think global warming is real. Among John Kasich voters, that percentage jumps to 71, while only 36 percent of Ted Cruz's supporters believe in man-made climate change. (Kasich and Cruz both left the presidential race after Indiana's primary.)

Trump voters were also more likely to back a presidential candidate if he or she strongly supported addressing global warming.

Meanwhile, nearly all Democratic voters -- 93 percent of Bernie Sanders backers and 92 percent of Hillary Clinton supporters -- believe in global warming.


It should come as no surprise that human activity is causing the world's oceans to warm, rise and acidify.

But an equally troubling impact of climate change is that it is beginning to rob the oceans of oxygen.

While ocean deoxygenation is well established, a new study led by Matthew Long, an oceanographer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, finds that climate change-driven oxygen loss is already detectable in certain swaths of ocean and will likely be "widespread" by 2030 or 2040.

Ultimately, Long told The Huffington Post, oxygen-deprived oceans may have "significant impacts on marine ecosystems" and leave some areas of ocean all but uninhabitable for certain species.

While some ocean critters, like dolphins and whales, get their oxygen by surfacing, many, including fish and crabs, rely on oxygen that either enters the water from the atmosphere or is released by phytoplankton via photosynthesis.

But as the ocean surface warms, it absorbs less oxygen. And to make matters worse, oxygen in warmer water, which is less dense, has a tough time circulating to deeper waters.

For their study, published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Long and his team used simulations to predict ocean deoxygenation through 2100.

"Since oxygen concentrations in the ocean naturally vary depending on variations in winds and temperature at the surface, it's been challenging to attribute any deoxygenation to climate change," Long said in a statement. "This new study tells us when we can expect the impact from climate change to overwhelm the natural variability."

By 2030 or 2040, according to the study, deoxygenation due to climate change will be detectable in large swaths of the Pacific Ocean, including the areas surrounding Hawaii and off the West Coast of the U.S. mainland. Other areas have more time. In the seas near the east coasts of Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia, for example, deoxygenation caused by climate change still won't be evident by 2100.

Long said the eventual suffocation may affect the ability of ocean ecosystems to sustain healthy fisheries. The concern among the scientific community, he said, is that "we're conceivably pushing past tipping points" in being able to prevent the damage.

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, shared these concerns, telling The Washington Post that the new study adds to the "list of insults we are inflicting on the ocean through our continued burning of fossil fuels."

"Just a week after learning that 93 (percent) of the Great Barrier Reef has experienced bleaching in response to the unprecedented current warmth of the oceans, we have yet another reason to be gravely concerned about the health of our oceans, and yet another reason to prioritize the rapid decarbonization of our economy," Mann said.

Unfortunately, this reason is unlikely to be the last.


The reference that warm water doesn't hold as much oxygen in solution is based on Henry's Law: At a constant temperature, the amount of a given gas that dissolves in a given type and volume of liquid is directly proportional to the partial pressure of that gas in equilibrium with that liquid." This means as temperature increases, liquid holds less gas in solution for a given atmospheric pressure. This is why a warm beer produces more of a head than a cold beer and why a warming ocean from climate change could produce areas of oxygen-deprived ocean that can not sustain fish life.
  #13  
Old May 5th 16, 10:37 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
SlurpieMcDoublegulp
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 134
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 4:29:45 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 4:10:00 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:58:16 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:39:10 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:37:13 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:35:00 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:29:11 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:20:21 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:18:09 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:17:44 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
Scorching temperatures brought on by climate change could leave large swaths of the Middle East and North Africa uninhabitable by the middle of this century, a new study predicts.

Researchers at Germany's Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia crunched the numbers and found that this area, a "climate change hotspot" where days of extreme heat have doubled since 1970, could soon be plagued by weather so brutal that it triggers a "climate exodus."

On the hottest of days, temperatures in North Africa and the Middle East can reach highs of around 109 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the findings. But that figure could soar to 114 degrees by 2050, and 122 degrees by 2100 -- extremes the researchers say could have "important consequences for human health and society."

Study lead author Jos Lelieveld, director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and a professor at The Cyprus Institute, says the change in climate could jeopardize the very existence of the area's 500 million inhabitants.

"Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate," Lelieveld said in a statement.

By analyzing climate data dating back to 1986, the researchers were able to forecast temperatures through the 21st century. Their calculations were based on two different possible scenarios: They first analyzed what would happen if global carbon emissions were reduced by mid-century, and then looked at what would happen if humans continue releasing greenhouse gases at a rate that's "business as usual."

The study, published in the journal Climate Change, shows that either way, the region south of the Mediterranean Sea should be ready not just for blazing temperatures, but also for lengthier heat waves.

Between 1986 and 2005, heat waves in the region lasted an average of 16 days, according to the findings. Under the researchers' more moderate scenario, the average length could reach 80 days by mid-century and 118 days by 2100. And if we humans do nothing to reduce our carbon footprint, the projections suggest people in this area can expect 200 unusually hot days per year by the end of the century.

Regardless of which scenario plays out, the paper's authors say "climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region."

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University who was not involved in the study, said the prediction of a climate exodus in this region is "not at all surprising."

"This study," he said via email, "is just part of a slew of recent studies that have shown that warmth will literally exceed the range of human habitability over an increasingly large swath of Earth's land regions if we fail to curtail our burning of fossil fuels. Yet another clarion call for climate action as if we needed it."

The study echoes the findings of a March paper co-authored by James Hansen, an adjunct professor at Columbia University's Earth Institute, which found summers in tropical locations, including the Middle East, will be too hot for humans to live through by 2100.

By Sebastien Malo

NEW YORK (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Economies across large swathes of the globe could shrink dramatically by mid-century as fresh water grows scarce due to climate change, the World Bank reported on Tuesday.

The Middle East could be hardest hit, with its gross domestic product slipping as much as 14 percent by 2050 unless measures are taken to reallocate water significantly, the Washington-based institution said in a report.

Such measures include efficiency efforts and investment in technologies such as desalination and water recycling, it said.

Global warming can cause extreme floods and droughts and can mean snowfall is replaced by rain, with higher evaporation rates, experts say.

It also can reduce mountain snow pack that provides water, and the melting of inland glaciers can deplete the source of runoff, they say.. Also, a rise in sea level can lead to sal****er contaminating groundwater..

"When we look at any of the major impacts of climate change, they one way or the other come through water, whether it's drought, floods, storms, sea level rise," Richard Damania, World Bank lead economist and lead author of the report, told reporters in a telephone conference.

Fresh water shortages could take a toll on sectors from agriculture to energy, the World Bank said.

"Water is of course at the centre of life, but it's also at the centre of economic activity," Damania said.

Water scarcity would not have the same impact worldwide, and Western Europe and North American economies would likely be spared, according to the World Bank models.

But rising economies such as China and India could be hard hit, it said.

In the Sahel belt that stretches across Africa below the Sahara, GDP could well dip some 11 percent with water scarcity, the World Bank said. A similar impact would be felt in Central Asia, it said.

But measures to reallocate fresh water could show gains in some regions, the bank said.

For example, a shift in allocation could lead to GDP growth of about 11 percent by 2050 in Central Asia, the bank said.

The World Bank also advocated pricing water consumption, a proposal that has stirred controversy and is opposed by those who do not think water should not have any price tag.

"If you're making money out of water, particularly if you're using a lot of water as a commercial user, then it's reasonable to suggest that you pay minimally enough to cover the cost of providing you with that water," Damania said.

"This might well mean free water if you are exceedingly poor," he said.

About a quarter of the world's population, or some 1.6 billion people, live in countries where water already is scarce, according to the World Bank.

Last month, 175 nations signed a deal reached last year in Paris to slow global warming and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

(Reporting by Sebastien Malo, Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst)

Many of the largest U.S. investment funds, including pensions, are doing nothing to protect their investors' savings from the financial risks posed by climate change, according to an analysis by the Asset Owners Disclosure Project, a nonprofit. At least 117 American funds, with a combined $4.6 trillion in assets, have taken no action to mitigate the risks associated with a warming planet.

"It simply isn't professional for the funds to do nothing," Julian Poulter, the group's CEO, told The Huffington Post.

Indeed, there have been warning signs for quite some time that big investors, from a purely financial perspective, need to think hard about fossil fuels. The S&P 500 stock index is up around 50 percent from 10 years ago. Oil stocks over the same period are up just over 1 percent.

And business is arguably only going to get harder. Global financial regulators are starting to work out a standard system for companies to voluntarily disclose climate risks, the governor of the Bank of England has warned insurance companies that they're at risk of being wiped out by climate change, and Saudi Arabia wants to kick its oil habit.

A 2013 report from England's Institute and Faculty of Actuaries found that under business-as-usual policies, resource scarcity associated with a changing climate could stall the global economy and cause pension funds to be unable to pay out benefits.

ABC's Jimmy Kimmel took a swing at former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on his late-night talk show Monday, criticizing the Republican for denying that climate change is real.

"No matter what Sarah Palin and these geniuses she surrounds herself with try to tell you, climate change is not a liberal versus conservative thing," Kimmel said. "But the people who profit from ignoring it want you to believe it is."

Kimmel enlisted a group of scientists to ensure Palin that talk about climate change is no joke.

"When we tell you all this, we're not ****ing with you," several scientists said in a video shown on Kimmel's show.

Palin is currently promoting a new anti-climate change documentary called "Climate Hustle," and has a long history of denying that humans contribute to climate change.

"Our politicians debate this, but our scientists don't," Kimmel said.

There was a recent NPR segment about Republican mayors who have to actually deal repercussions of climate change being a total odds with the state and national level Republicans who have been bribed to lie about climate change.

It was pretty funny when Gov. Brown (D-CA) very nicely supplied Gov.. Scott (R-FL) with a scientific report about the billions upon billions of property damage being projected for FL waterfront property by 2030, and the billions upon billions more on top of that by 2050. Gov. Brown politely suggested Gov. Scott might like to read it even if Gov. Scott was busy ordering FL government officials to not mention climate change.

A majority of Donald Trump supporters believe man-made climate change is happening, despite the presidential candidate's history of global warming denial, a poll released Wednesday found.

The survey, conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, found that 56 percent of people supporting Trump in the 2016 race think global warming is real. Among John Kasich voters, that percentage jumps to 71, while only 36 percent of Ted Cruz's supporters believe in man-made climate change. (Kasich and Cruz both left the presidential race after Indiana's primary.)

Trump voters were also more likely to back a presidential candidate if he or she strongly supported addressing global warming.

Meanwhile, nearly all Democratic voters -- 93 percent of Bernie Sanders backers and 92 percent of Hillary Clinton supporters -- believe in global warming.


It should come as no surprise that human activity is causing the world's oceans to warm, rise and acidify.

But an equally troubling impact of climate change is that it is beginning to rob the oceans of oxygen.

While ocean deoxygenation is well established, a new study led by Matthew Long, an oceanographer at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, finds that climate change-driven oxygen loss is already detectable in certain swaths of ocean and will likely be "widespread" by 2030 or 2040.

Ultimately, Long told The Huffington Post, oxygen-deprived oceans may have "significant impacts on marine ecosystems" and leave some areas of ocean all but uninhabitable for certain species.

While some ocean critters, like dolphins and whales, get their oxygen by surfacing, many, including fish and crabs, rely on oxygen that either enters the water from the atmosphere or is released by phytoplankton via photosynthesis.

But as the ocean surface warms, it absorbs less oxygen. And to make matters worse, oxygen in warmer water, which is less dense, has a tough time circulating to deeper waters.

For their study, published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Long and his team used simulations to predict ocean deoxygenation through 2100.

"Since oxygen concentrations in the ocean naturally vary depending on variations in winds and temperature at the surface, it's been challenging to attribute any deoxygenation to climate change," Long said in a statement. "This new study tells us when we can expect the impact from climate change to overwhelm the natural variability."

By 2030 or 2040, according to the study, deoxygenation due to climate change will be detectable in large swaths of the Pacific Ocean, including the areas surrounding Hawaii and off the West Coast of the U.S. mainland. Other areas have more time. In the seas near the east coasts of Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia, for example, deoxygenation caused by climate change still won't be evident by 2100.

Long said the eventual suffocation may affect the ability of ocean ecosystems to sustain healthy fisheries. The concern among the scientific community, he said, is that "we're conceivably pushing past tipping points" in being able to prevent the damage.

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, shared these concerns, telling The Washington Post that the new study adds to the "list of insults we are inflicting on the ocean through our continued burning of fossil fuels."

"Just a week after learning that 93 (percent) of the Great Barrier Reef has experienced bleaching in response to the unprecedented current warmth of the oceans, we have yet another reason to be gravely concerned about the health of our oceans, and yet another reason to prioritize the rapid decarbonization of our economy," Mann said.

Unfortunately, this reason is unlikely to be the last.


The reference that warm water doesn't hold as much oxygen in solution is based on Henry's Law: At a constant temperature, the amount of a given gas that dissolves in a given type and volume of liquid is directly proportional to the partial pressure of that gas in equilibrium with that liquid." This means as temperature increases, liquid holds less gas in solution for a given atmospheric pressure. This is why a warm beer produces more of a head than a cold beer and why a warming ocean from climate change could produce areas of oxygen-deprived ocean that can not sustain fish life.


Accepting established science is not political. It's just data and reason.
Denying climate science and environmentalism is entirly political as there are only political and profit motives and no scientific basis for it.

  #14  
Old May 5th 16, 10:42 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
SlurpieMcDoublegulp
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Posts: 134
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:31:49 AM UTC-5, oriel36 wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 9:17:44 AM UTC+1, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
Scorching temperatures brought on by climate change could leave large swaths of the Middle East and North Africa uninhabitable by the middle of this century, a new study predicts.


Chill out my boy, the big astronomical news is that midday and midsummer share a common trait when it comes to temperature fluctuations for any given location at habitable latitudes -

https://weather-and-climate.com/uplo...dom-london.png

http://prairieecosystems.pbworks.com...0variation.jpg

The temperature graphs are such a lovable means to express that our planet turns in two distinct ways to the Sun and how to fix both midday and midsummer by their common feature.


In Colorado it is illegal to drive with a giraffe in the car...in Florida it is illegal to bathe naked (in your own home)...in California it is illegal to eat a live crow......
  #15  
Old May 5th 16, 10:44 AM posted to sci.astro.amateur
SlurpieMcDoublegulp
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Posts: 134
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 4:42:32 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:31:49 AM UTC-5, oriel36 wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 9:17:44 AM UTC+1, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
Scorching temperatures brought on by climate change could leave large swaths of the Middle East and North Africa uninhabitable by the middle of this century, a new study predicts.


Chill out my boy, the big astronomical news is that midday and midsummer share a common trait when it comes to temperature fluctuations for any given location at habitable latitudes -

https://weather-and-climate.com/uplo...dom-london.png

http://prairieecosystems.pbworks.com...0variation.jpg

The temperature graphs are such a lovable means to express that our planet turns in two distinct ways to the Sun and how to fix both midday and midsummer by their common feature.


In Colorado it is illegal to drive with a giraffe in the car...in Florida it is illegal to bathe naked (in your own home)...in California it is illegal to eat a live crow......


in England its illegal to buy fish on a Sunday .. Yet it is illegal to sell fried fish on Sunday (although in some areas the law is not enforced). This means that fast food of foreign origin can be sold freely, whilst the main native fast food, fish & chips, cannot legally be sold on Sunday.
  #16  
Old May 5th 16, 12:10 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
oriel36[_2_]
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Posts: 8,478
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 10:44:10 AM UTC+1, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 4:42:32 AM UTC-5, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:31:49 AM UTC-5, oriel36 wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 9:17:44 AM UTC+1, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
Scorching temperatures brought on by climate change could leave large swaths of the Middle East and North Africa uninhabitable by the middle of this century, a new study predicts.


Chill out my boy, the big astronomical news is that midday and midsummer share a common trait when it comes to temperature fluctuations for any given location at habitable latitudes -

https://weather-and-climate.com/uplo...dom-london.png

http://prairieecosystems.pbworks.com...0variation.jpg

The temperature graphs are such a lovable means to express that our planet turns in two distinct ways to the Sun and how to fix both midday and midsummer by their common feature.


In Colorado it is illegal to drive with a giraffe in the car...in Florida it is illegal to bathe naked (in your own home)...in California it is illegal to eat a live crow......


in England its illegal to buy fish on a Sunday .. Yet it is illegal to sell fried fish on Sunday (although in some areas the law is not enforced). This means that fast food of foreign origin can be sold freely, whilst the main native fast food, fish & chips, cannot legally be sold on Sunday.


Cause and effect my dear boy, it is the staple of astronomers in assigning cause for planetary temperature fluctuations and this time the logic is exquisite.

There is no such thing as astronomical midday and meteorological midday, there is just the warming trend as a location turns to the Sun each day which extends past midday and then cools thereafter. The same with the orbital surface rotation where midsummer is not the warmest -

https://weather-and-climate.com/uplo...dom-london.png

http://prairieecosystems.pbworks.com...0variation.jpg

Howling about planetary temperatures is far removed from the wonderful temperature signatures which result from daily and orbital rotations with the latter best understood by the polar day/night cycle.

If the Earth's inclination was 0° inclination or an Equatorial climate then the temperature graph for London would show a flat line across the year, if the inclination was 90° or a polar climate then there would be huge swings across the year at the same London location.

Welcome to planetary climate, not just for our planet but for all others in the solar system.

  #17  
Old May 5th 16, 12:57 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
[email protected]
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Posts: 9,472
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 5:37:51 AM UTC-4, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:

Accepting established science is not political. It's just data and reason.
Denying climate science and environmentalism is entirly political as there are
only political and profit motives and no scientific basis for it.


You really need to slow down on the caffeine, dude.

You really need to slow down on your fossil fuel use too... your words say one thing, your actions say something entirely different.
  #18  
Old May 5th 16, 01:00 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
oriel36[_2_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 8,478
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 10:42:32 AM UTC+1, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:31:49 AM UTC-5, oriel36 wrote:
On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 9:17:44 AM UTC+1, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:
Scorching temperatures brought on by climate change could leave large swaths of the Middle East and North Africa uninhabitable by the middle of this century, a new study predicts.


Chill out my boy, the big astronomical news is that midday and midsummer share a common trait when it comes to temperature fluctuations for any given location at habitable latitudes -

https://weather-and-climate.com/uplo...dom-london.png

http://prairieecosystems.pbworks.com...0variation.jpg

The temperature graphs are such a lovable means to express that our planet turns in two distinct ways to the Sun and how to fix both midday and midsummer by their common feature.


In Colorado it is illegal to drive with a giraffe in the car...in Florida it is illegal to bathe naked (in your own home)...in California it is illegal to eat a live crow......


Don't worry Rolando, the inane will be along soon enough to save you.
  #19  
Old May 5th 16, 01:24 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Gary Harnagel
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Posts: 659
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:37:51 AM UTC-6, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:

Accepting established science is not political. It's just data and reason.


But the "established science" is regularly overturned by new thinking and
new instrumentation. Just in the last 50 years the way scientists look
at planets and the universe has changed significantly.

Denying climate science and environmentalism is entirly political as there
are only political and profit motives and no scientific basis for it.


There's also the Chicken Little syndrome. There is a way to solve the
climate "crisis" without an "immediate disaster, we gotta fix it right now,
spare no expense" mentality. It is entirely political that the Chicken
Littles don't want to look at it.
  #20  
Old May 5th 16, 02:51 PM posted to sci.astro.amateur
Chris L Peterson
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 10,007
Default Climate change could cause mass exodus by mid century

On Thu, 5 May 2016 05:24:11 -0700 (PDT), Gary Harnagel
wrote:

On Thursday, May 5, 2016 at 3:37:51 AM UTC-6, SlurpieMcDoublegulp wrote:

Accepting established science is not political. It's just data and reason.


But the "established science" is regularly overturned by new thinking and
new instrumentation.


Actually, major scientific theories are rarely overturned. It's been a
long time since that's happened. Maybe never for any theory that was
robustly supported by evidence.
 




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