SpaceX Thought experiment -a Saturn V class vehicle within 10 years?

The new update at SpaceX has got me cogitating.

After Falcon V development is complete (LEO throw weight ~13,000 lbs,
GTO 4200 lbs), SpaceX will have a Merlin 2 engine with a sealevel
thrust ~100,000 lbs, enabling SpaceX to compete against the lightest
versions of Delta IV and Atlas V. Falcon V in that configuration would
have a GLOW ~500,000 lbs.

The next obvious step would be a Falcon X, which would compete with the
heavier versions of EELV (~30,000 lbs to GTO), presumably with a GLOW
~1.5 million lbs. With 5 engines like Falcon V, 'Falcon X's' Merlin 3
or whatever would need ~300,000 lbs sealevel thrust. Then you have a
third generation vehicle with a third generation engine-- and nowhere
to go with it.

If, on the other hand, you take SpaceX at their word that they intend
to develop a ~1.5 million lb thrust engine in the next few years,
perhaps there will be no 'Falcon X'

Instead, a bigger version of Falcon I, call it 'Gigantor I', with one
Merlin 3 at 1.5 mil lbs thrust, as the lower stage. You probably save
some weight in the stage with one engine, with similar reliability to
Falcon I but the ability to carry heavy payloads--and no solids. Assume
the 1.5 mil thrust engine costs 3 times as much as the Merlin 2--
still you're at 25 mil for the Gigantor I engine.

Now put 5 Merlin 3 engines on the lower stage--you're talking about a
vehicle with GLOW of 7.5 million lbs. Now you're dealing with a Saturn
V class vehicle (Gigantor V), with the ability to put 150 tons in
orbit. Perhaps for a recurring cost of less than $200 mil.

thoughts?
cuddihy

Tom Cuddihy wrote:
The new update at SpaceX has got me cogitating.

After Falcon V development is complete (LEO throw weight ~13,000 lbs,
GTO 4200 lbs), SpaceX will have a Merlin 2 engine with a sealevel
thrust ~100,000 lbs, enabling SpaceX to compete against the lightest
versions of Delta IV and Atlas V. Falcon V in that configuration would
have a GLOW ~500,000 lbs.

The next obvious step would be a Falcon X, which would compete with the
heavier versions of EELV (~30,000 lbs to GTO), presumably with a GLOW
~1.5 million lbs. With 5 engines like Falcon V, 'Falcon X's' Merlin 3
or whatever would need ~300,000 lbs sealevel thrust. Then you have a
third generation vehicle with a third generation engine-- and nowhere
to go with it.

If, on the other hand, you take SpaceX at their word that they intend
to develop a ~1.5 million lb thrust engine in the next few years,
perhaps there will be no 'Falcon X'

Instead, a bigger version of Falcon I, call it 'Gigantor I', with one
Merlin 3 at 1.5 mil lbs thrust, as the lower stage. You probably save
some weight in the stage with one engine, with similar reliability to
Falcon I but the ability to carry heavy payloads--and no solids. Assume
the 1.5 mil thrust engine costs 3 times as much as the Merlin 2--
still you're at 25 mil for the Gigantor I engine.

Now put 5 Merlin 3 engines on the lower stage--you're talking about a
vehicle with GLOW of 7.5 million lbs. Now you're dealing with a Saturn
V class vehicle (Gigantor V), with the ability to put 150 tons in
orbit. Perhaps for a recurring cost of less than $200 mil.

thoughts?

Before you have SpaceX building a Saturn V, consider
that this company has not yet even tried to launch
its first small rocket, let alone succeeded.

The Falcon V of which you speak is currently nothing
but drawings and piles of parts and stock aluminum,
with some parts welded together. There is talk of
putting the first five Merlin engines together for
initial testing late this year or early next, but
consider that it took von Braun and company nearly
a year to get their first cluster booster fully up
and running on a test stand.

The Falcon V version that purportedly will be built
from those bits and pieces is far short of a match
for the smallest EELVs. If it can be made to work,
it will only be a Delta II class launcher - and then
only on paper since SpaceX will still be decades
behind the Douglas-McDonnell-Boeing Thor/Delta
learning curve. (At 574 launches, Thor/Delta is the
world's second-most flown rocket after Russia's R-7.)

The projected liquid hydrogen upper stage that could
make Falcon V as powerful as a Delta IV Medium is not
a trivial thing to develop. Years and many tens of
millions of dollars yet before we see that stage,
if ever.

But even when and if SpaceX gets Falcon V flying,
Musk will have spent maybe $100 million on the
effort. It would take hundreds of millions, maybe
even billions, of dollars more to develop a
Saturn V class rocket. (Kistler is looking for
$500 million that it needs to complete its K-1).

Musk doesn't have that kind of money. He is only a
multi-hundred millionaire. (Yes, he sold PayPal for
more than a billion, but he had to use much of the
proceeds to pay down debt he used to leverage the
company's development). He certainly isn't going to
make that kind of money selling Falcon V launches
at $12 million a pop.

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:
Tom Cuddihy wrote:
The new update at SpaceX has got me cogitating.

After Falcon V development is complete (LEO throw weight ~13,000 lbs,
GTO 4200 lbs), SpaceX will have a Merlin 2 engine with a sealevel
thrust ~100,000 lbs, enabling SpaceX to compete against the lightest
versions of Delta IV and Atlas V. Falcon V in that configuration would
have a GLOW ~500,000 lbs.

The next obvious step would be a Falcon X, which would compete with the
heavier versions of EELV (~30,000 lbs to GTO), presumably with a GLOW
~1.5 million lbs. With 5 engines like Falcon V, 'Falcon X's' Merlin 3
or whatever would need ~300,000 lbs sealevel thrust. Then you have a
third generation vehicle with a third generation engine-- and nowhere
to go with it.

If, on the other hand, you take SpaceX at their word that they intend
to develop a ~1.5 million lb thrust engine in the next few years,
perhaps there will be no 'Falcon X'

Instead, a bigger version of Falcon I, call it 'Gigantor I', with one
Merlin 3 at 1.5 mil lbs thrust, as the lower stage. You probably save
some weight in the stage with one engine, with similar reliability to
Falcon I but the ability to carry heavy payloads--and no solids. Assume
the 1.5 mil thrust engine costs 3 times as much as the Merlin 2--
still you're at 25 mil for the Gigantor I engine.

Now put 5 Merlin 3 engines on the lower stage--you're talking about a
vehicle with GLOW of 7.5 million lbs. Now you're dealing with a Saturn
V class vehicle (Gigantor V), with the ability to put 150 tons in
orbit. Perhaps for a recurring cost of less than $200 mil.

thoughts?

Before you have SpaceX building a Saturn V, consider
that this company has not yet even tried to launch
its first small rocket, let alone succeeded.

The Falcon V of which you speak is currently nothing
but drawings and piles of parts and stock aluminum,
with some parts welded together. There is talk of
putting the first five Merlin engines together for
initial testing late this year or early next, but
consider that it took von Braun and company nearly
a year to get their first cluster booster fully up
and running on a test stand.

Von Braun and company were using an engine bigger than any ever made
before, were trying a concept never tried before, and were putting it
all together using multiple government contractors using sliderules,
not finite element modeling.

It may indeed take along time before the Falcon V first stage is up and
running on a test stand. But unlike ze Germans, it won't be because
they're trying something no one has ever done before.

The Falcon V version that purportedly will be built
from those bits and pieces is far short of a match
for the smallest EELVs. If it can be made to work,

to be precise, it has a lower payload capacity than the lightest
version of BOTH EELVs. And a price 1/6th as high to launch.

Using the Merlin 1B engine. If SpaceX does indeed proceed with a Merlin
2 development of ~100,000 lb sea level thrust & similar performance to
Merlin 1, it will probably match the lightest EELVs.

it will only be a Delta II class launcher - and then
only on paper since SpaceX will still be decades
behind the Douglas-McDonnell-Boeing Thor/Delta
learning curve. (At 574 launches, Thor/Delta is the
world's second-most flown rocket after Russia's R-7.)

Don't look now, but Delta IV is not exactly similar in any way to Thor,
other than being launched by the conglomerate that bought the company
that bought the company that originally launched Thor.

Before you go pshawing Spacex's institutional experience with regard to
launchers (especially compared to Boeing), you might want to check out
the "people" on SpaceX's website. They ARE pretty much the best and
brightest from McDonnel-Douglas space.

The projected liquid hydrogen upper stage that could
make Falcon V as powerful as a Delta IV Medium is not
a trivial thing to develop. Years and many tens of
millions of dollars yet before we see that stage,
if ever.

they may try to develop a hydrogen upperstage far in the future, after
they are a public company. But I doubt it. It's neither simple nor cost
efficient. I think it far likelier that they will stick with Lox/RP-1
and just grow the rocket. Unlike government supported space companies,
SpaceX is going to have to leverage existing technology rather than
trying to continually develop the next breakthrough.


But even when and if SpaceX gets Falcon V flying,
Musk will have spent maybe $100 million on the
effort. It would take hundreds of millions, maybe
even billions, of dollars more to develop a
Saturn V class rocket. (Kistler is looking for
$500 million that it needs to complete its K-1).

Musk doesn't have that kind of money. He is only a
multi-hundred millionaire. (Yes, he sold PayPal for


Yes, but if Falcon V gets off the pad in a reasonable time frame (the
next 3 years), Musk will, if he's sane, take the company public or go
for a round of additional private financing before going for a new
rocket.

more than a billion, but he had to use much of the
proceeds to pay down debt he used to leverage the
company's development). He certainly isn't going to
make that kind of money selling Falcon V launches
at $12 million a pop.

On 8 Jun 2005 22:02:57 -0700, in a place far, far away, "Tom Cuddihy"
made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:


But even when and if SpaceX gets Falcon V flying,
Musk will have spent maybe $100 million on the
effort. It would take hundreds of millions, maybe
even billions, of dollars more to develop a
Saturn V class rocket. (Kistler is looking for
$500 million that it needs to complete its K-1).

Musk doesn't have that kind of money. He is only a
multi-hundred millionaire. (Yes, he sold PayPal for


Yes, but if Falcon V gets off the pad in a reasonable time frame (the
next 3 years), Musk will, if he's sane, take the company public or go
for a round of additional private financing before going for a new
rocket.

He won't raise any private money for a Saturn V class rocket any time
soon. There's insufficient market for it.

Tom Cuddihy wrote:

Before you go pshawing Spacex's institutional experience with regard to
launchers (especially compared to Boeing), you might want to check out
the "people" on SpaceX's website. They ARE pretty much the best and
brightest from McDonnell-Douglas space.

With Boeing gradually shutting down Huntington Beach,
(and with the general downturn in the Southern
California aerospace business), Musk certainly has
a solid talent pool to fish from. And the fish he
has caught seem to be innovating and making solid
design choices. But I suspect that they would be
the first to tell you that their hardware still has
many lessons to teach them.

- Ed Kyle

Rand Simberg wrote:
On 8 Jun 2005 22:02:57 -0700, in a place far, far away, "Tom Cuddihy"
made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:


But even when and if SpaceX gets Falcon V flying,
Musk will have spent maybe $100 million on the
effort. It would take hundreds of millions, maybe
even billions, of dollars more to develop a
Saturn V class rocket. (Kistler is looking for
$500 million that it needs to complete its K-1).

Musk doesn't have that kind of money. He is only a
multi-hundred millionaire. (Yes, he sold PayPal for


Yes, but if Falcon V gets off the pad in a reasonable time frame (the
next 3 years), Musk will, if he's sane, take the company public or go
for a round of additional private financing before going for a new
rocket.

He won't raise any private money for a Saturn V class rocket any time
soon. There's insufficient market for it.

That was my thought too, but then I remembered the
Internet VC boom of the late 1990s. Venture capitalists
poured billions into all manner of questionable
concepts (remember the talking sock dog commercials?).
Ninety percent of them went bust.

Perhaps we should say that, given existing space
launch market conditions, Musk *shouldn't* be able
to raise private money for a Sat V class booster.

- Ed Kyle

I really don't see what the attraction of a 150t payload booster is.
Even with a minimalistic pad infrastructure like spacex uses, such a
booster will require very large and very expensive ground support
equipment. And there is not exactly a large number of 100t payloads
sitting around waiting to be launched.

I think it would be much more economical to grow the falcon series to a
size where the packaging overhead is small, like for example 30-40t to
LEO, and then concentrate on making this design as cheap as possible by
optimizing mass production and reusability.

Rand Simberg wrote:
On 8 Jun 2005 22:02:57 -0700, in a place far, far away, "Tom Cuddihy"
made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:


But even when and if SpaceX gets Falcon V flying,
Musk will have spent maybe $100 million on the
effort. It would take hundreds of millions, maybe
even billions, of dollars more to develop a
Saturn V class rocket. (Kistler is looking for
$500 million that it needs to complete its K-1).

Musk doesn't have that kind of money. He is only a
multi-hundred millionaire. (Yes, he sold PayPal for


Yes, but if Falcon V gets off the pad in a reasonable time frame (the
next 3 years), Musk will, if he's sane, take the company public or go
for a round of additional private financing before going for a new
rocket.

He won't raise any private money for a Saturn V class rocket any time
soon. There's insufficient market for it.

Unless NASA says it wants one. What if Bigelow wants one?

Either way, my main point was not that SpaceX will build a Saturn-V
class launch vehicle any time soon, but that if Elon Musk intends to go
for the WHOLE US govt launch market, he could get to heavy vehicle with
a single lower stage engine design vice a five engine--as long as it's
in the F-1 class. And that could be done at the rate that the large
engine is developed at.

And who knows, in ten years there might be a market for a very large,
very heavy launcher, especially if orbital space tourism or the VSE
actually happens.

cuddihy

Leaving aside the super-heavy lift market issues for a moment, Musk has
stated that SpaceX is developing or is going to start developing a
scale version of SpaceX's future F-1-class engine. Are you proposing
that he's developing an engine (the scale version) without a vehicle in
mind?

Maybe I've misunderstood your scenario.

On 9 Jun 2005 14:36:44 -0700, in a place far, far away, "Tom Cuddihy"
made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:

...if Falcon V gets off the pad in a reasonable time frame (the
next 3 years), Musk will, if he's sane, take the company public or go
for a round of additional private financing before going for a new
rocket.

He won't raise any private money for a Saturn V class rocket any time
soon. There's insufficient market for it.

Unless NASA says it wants one.

That's not enough market.

What if Bigelow wants one?

That's unlikely, at the price that he'd have to charge, unless Bigelow
wants a lot more than one.

And who knows, in ten years there might be a market for a very large,
very heavy launcher, especially if orbital space tourism or the VSE
actually happens.

The market for vehicle that size appearing in ten years seems
extremely unlikely.