BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT: FOAM INSULATION CAUSED THE CRASH

Bill McGinnis wrote:
:
Okay. I'm ready for my prize. I hereby claim to be the very first
person in the world who publicly declared that the cause of the
Columbia crash was certainly the so-called "foam" insulation,
and that no further searching for a cause was needed.

If you go back to the very first message in this thread, it is mine;
and it turned out to be 100% correct.

Bill McGinnis


http://GeneralDiagnostics.net

:










: BEYOND A REASONABLE DOUBT: FOAM INSULATION CAUSED THE CRASH
:
: By Rev. Bill McGinnis, Owner
: www.AutomobileDiagnostics.net
: www.GeneralDiagnostics.net
:
: NOTE: THIS IS MY PERSONAL OPINION ONLY.
:
: Based on these facts already established, we can safely now conclude that
: the foam insulation caused caused the crash of the Columbia, beyond a
: reasonable doubt. These nine facts alone are sufficient to draw this
: conclusion.
:
: Here is how we do it.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #1: A piece of hardened foam insulation broke off the
: Columbia on launch and struck the insulating tiles on the bottom side of
: the left wing. This fact was recorded on the video of the launch, which I
: observed on TV. Such foam insulation is rock hard, but less dense than a
: rock, according to TV reports and demonstrations.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #2: The weight of this piece was approximately two
: pounds. This fact was reported on TV, presumably obtained by multiplying
: the estimated volume of the piece of insulation by its average weight per
: cubic unit of volume.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #3: The relative speed of impact of the insulation piece
: against the tiles was approximately 500 miles per hour. This fact was
: reported on TV, presumably obtained by noting the speed of the vehicle at
: the moment of impact, then subtracting the estimated speed of the piece of
: insulation at that same moment.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #4: The broken piece of insulation had sharp, jagged
: edges. This fact can be derived by observing what happens when similar
: items break into pieces. Broken pottery is perhaps the closest example we
: observe in domestic human life.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #5: The force of impact of the broken piece was
: sufficient to crack or even shatter the tiles(s), particularly if all of
: that impact were concentrated on a single jagged edge and if the impact
: were a "direct hit." This fact can be derived, with certainly, from the
: following calculations and observations: First, the tiles are known to be
: "fragile," cable of breaking fairly easily. I cannot calculate an exact
: measure of fragility, but we can be sure that if they are known to be
: "fragile," as reported, then they can be broken fairly easily. Second, the
: force of impact (of a direct hit) was the same as that of a typical high
: school fullback hitting the line in a football game. Two pounds of moving
: at 500 miles per hour has the same momentum as two hundred pounds moving
: at 5miles per hour. (From physics, p=mv, momentum equals mass times
: velocity.) If you picture a two-hundred-pound high school fullback,
: crashing into the defensive line in a football game, carrying a ceramic
: football with a jagged point, you can see for sure that a "fragile" piece
: of tile would be cracked or broken on direct impact with the jagged point
: of the ceramic football. Even if the impact were at an oblique angle, not
: a direct hit, it could still be sufficient to crack or shatter a fragile
: tile. And even if the full force of the impact were not concentrated on a
: jagged edge, it could still be sufficient.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #6: The piece of insulation shattered immediately upon
: impact, turning "into dust." This fact is recorded on the video of the
: launch.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #7: Based on facts 5 and 6 above, it is certain that at
: least one of the tiles on the bottom of the left wing must have been
: cracked or shattered by the impact with the piece of insulation. Since the
: impact was sufficient to shatter the piece of insulation into dust, then
: it must have similarly been sufficient to crack or shatter at least one of
: the fragile tiles. So the impact must have been sufficiently direct and
: sufficiently concentrated to crack or shatter a tile.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #8: The sensors recorded abnormally high temperatures on
: the left wing of the Columbia shortly before it broke apart. This was
: reported on TV and has never been disputed, to my knowledge.
:
: ESTABLISHED FACT #9: The observed high temperatures on the left wing were
: caused by the damaged tile(s). We know we had damaged tile(s). We know we
: had abnormal high temperatures. We know that damaged tiles would cause
: high temperatures at this time during descent. (That's why the tiles were
: there in the first place: to protect the wing from the high temperatures
: of descent into the atmosphere.)
:
: The truth of this fact is further confirmed by John Stuart Mill's "Method
: Of Concomitant Variations."
:
:
: "Whatever phenomenon varies in any manner whenever another phenomenon
: varies in some particular manner, is either a cause or an effect of that
: phenomenon, or is connected with it through some fact of causation."
:
: Source: John Stuart Mill, A System of Logic, 1843
:
:
:
: If we conducted experiments, we would surely find that the temperature of
: the wing varied inversely with the integrity of the tiles.
: Also, as a practical matter, we frequently find that when any two unusual
: events occur in close proximity, they are related by causation. For
: example, even without knowing much about medicine, we can suspect that the
: unusual event of death was causally related to the unusual event of a
: gunshot wound. In the present case, the coincidence of the insulation
: breaking off and striking the wing, followed the wing getting hot, leads
: us to suspect a causal relationship.
:
: CONCLUSION:
:
: Now that we have established the nine facts above, the rest of the
: scenario is immediately clear: Upon re-entry, when the upper atmosphere
: began to drag against the Columbia, the damaged tile broke off, taking
: perhaps several others with it. Now with the heat-resistant tile(s) broken
: off, the underlying wing structure was not protected from the heat
: build-up. The metal softened and bent from the heat, drag built up, the
: ship tried to correct its attitude, the left wing broke off, and the
: Columbia then broke up into several pieces and crashed, killing all seven
: people aboard.
:
: To me, this is exactly what happened. Period. And I am confident that when
: all of the evidence has been examined, this diagnosis will be found to be
: true.
:
: # # #
:
:
:

--
Rev. Bill McGinnis
Editor - http://TheAmericanCitizen.US
Director - http://LoveAllPeople.org
Owner - http://FeaturedProducts.net


Bill McGinnis

In article ,
says...
Bill McGinnis wrote:
:
Okay. I'm ready for my prize. I hereby claim to be the very first
person in the world who publicly declared that the cause of the
Columbia crash was certainly the so-called "foam" insulation,
and that no further searching for a cause was needed.

If you go back to the very first message in this thread, it is mine;
and it turned out to be 100% correct.

snip to essential conclusion

Now that we have established the nine facts above, the rest of the
scenario is immediately clear: Upon re-entry, when the upper atmosphere
began to drag against the Columbia, the damaged tile broke off, taking
perhaps several others with it. Now with the heat-resistant tile(s) broken
off, the underlying wing structure was not protected from the heat
build-up. The metal softened and bent from the heat, drag built up, the
ship tried to correct its attitude, the left wing broke off, and the
Columbia then broke up into several pieces and crashed, killing all seven
people aboard.

To me, this is exactly what happened. Period. And I am confident that when
all of the evidence has been examined, this diagnosis will be found to be
true.

Very close, but your original post assumes damage to one or more tiles,
and the truth is that damage to one or two Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC)
panels on the left wing's leading edge caused the loss of the vehicle.
There's no evidence of which I'm aware that any of the tiles were
damaged.

But you did state correctly that foam shed from the bipod ramp caused the
damage that resulted in LOCV. However, I'm sure I heard the same
speculation as early as a few minutes after the story broke, on the TV
coverage. So, while I appreciate your conscientious posting, I'm not
sure how original your speculation was...

--

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