When will we be able to afford space settlement?

I think its well established here that space settlement can't really
progress in the absence of commercial incentive, save for giant
command economy space programs that could possibly start tiny,
enourmously expensive settlements of a few hundred glorified
vacationers.

Its often been suggested in the giant megathreads on the sf and
sci.space.policy newsgroups that we will have no commercial incentive
to go to space, so we won't; I'm not attempting to redredge that
argument. I however don't think there is much commercial incentive now
outside of the communications industry, and that it will be
unprofitable for a long time for a rational investor to put money into
most space programs.

I believe that as the economy grows and technology advances,
commercial space ventures will become affordable, but not for a long
time. Does anyone want to look into the crystal ball and see whether
space is still dominated by government prestige and defence programs
still by 2050?

Looking at previous postings (what will space exploration be like in
2050) about 5 years ago, where are we since then? It seems it was
mostly William Mook painting a pretty picture that I find a little
overoptimistic in the terms of commercial utility of space, and
criticisms of his projections. Still a fun read:

http://tinyurl.com/263ak

If we have no major wars, revolutions, or other like disruptions, we
can expect the global economy to be about 4 times larger than it is
currently, with the top economies being China, US, and India.

Much of the worlds economies will be geared for industrial production.
We may hit the singularity with AI development; or it may just be the
entire world buying better cars and having more leisure time. But at
some point commercial space travel will be affordable, if for no other
reason than the growth of economies to the point of indulgence on
whim.

So when will commercially viable settlement be affordable?

(Dez Akin) wrote in message om...
I think its well established here that space settlement can't really
progress in the absence of commercial incentive, save for giant
command economy space programs that could possibly start tiny,
enourmously expensive settlements of a few hundred glorified
vacationers.

Its often been suggested in the giant megathreads on the sf and
sci.space.policy newsgroups that we will have no commercial incentive
to go to space, so we won't; I'm not attempting to redredge that
argument. I however don't think there is much commercial incentive now
outside of the communications industry, and that it will be
unprofitable for a long time for a rational investor to put money into
most space programs.

I believe that as the economy grows and technology advances,
commercial space ventures will become affordable, but not for a long
time. Does anyone want to look into the crystal ball and see whether
space is still dominated by government prestige and defence programs
still by 2050?

Looking at previous postings (what will space exploration be like in
2050) about 5 years ago, where are we since then? It seems it was
mostly William Mook painting a pretty picture that I find a little
overoptimistic in the terms of commercial utility of space, and
criticisms of his projections. Still a fun read:

http://tinyurl.com/263ak

If we have no major wars, revolutions, or other like disruptions, we
can expect the global economy to be about 4 times larger than it is
currently, with the top economies being China, US, and India.

Much of the worlds economies will be geared for industrial production.
We may hit the singularity with AI development; or it may just be the
entire world buying better cars and having more leisure time. But at
some point commercial space travel will be affordable, if for no other
reason than the growth of economies to the point of indulgence on
whim.

So when will commercially viable settlement be affordable?

Depends on what you mean by settlement. I will assume a community of
at least a few hundred, some planning on staying permanently, with a
locally-produced product, sold on Earth, that isn't subject to
cancellation by any particular government's whim. My guess: this will
happen within 20 years after the cost to Low Earth Orbit gets down to
$100US per pound.

So when will commercially viable settlement be affordable?

As soon as something is discovered, invented, or thought up that
provides a greater return on the invesment in a settlement than it
costs to create the settlement. When something is discovered,
invented, or thought up that makes it so the settlement can be
self-supporting on the basis of exports/tourism or self-supporting in
the true sense of being able to cover all its economic bases from
local materials.

I don't see that happening at all by 2050.

Depends on what you mean by settlement. I will assume a community of
at least a few hundred, some planning on staying permanently, with a
locally-produced product, sold on Earth, that isn't subject to
cancellation by any particular government's whim. My guess: this will
happen within 20 years after the cost to Low Earth Orbit gets down to
$100US per pound.

What product will that be, exactly?

John Ordover wrote:

What product will that be, exactly?

Climate modification.

Paul

On Fri, 16 Apr 2004 19:39:19 -0500, in a place far, far away, "Paul F.
Dietz" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:

John Ordover wrote:

What product will that be, exactly?

Climate modification.

Freedom.

(Bill Bogen) wrote in message . com...
(Dez Akin) wrote in message om...
I think its well established here that space settlement can't really
progress in the absence of commercial incentive, save for giant
command economy space programs that could possibly start tiny,
enourmously expensive settlements of a few hundred glorified
vacationers.

Its often been suggested in the giant megathreads on the sf and
sci.space.policy newsgroups that we will have no commercial incentive
to go to space, so we won't; I'm not attempting to redredge that
argument. I however don't think there is much commercial incentive now
outside of the communications industry, and that it will be
unprofitable for a long time for a rational investor to put money into
most space programs.

I believe that as the economy grows and technology advances,
commercial space ventures will become affordable, but not for a long
time. Does anyone want to look into the crystal ball and see whether
space is still dominated by government prestige and defence programs
still by 2050?

Looking at previous postings (what will space exploration be like in
2050) about 5 years ago, where are we since then? It seems it was
mostly William Mook painting a pretty picture that I find a little
overoptimistic in the terms of commercial utility of space, and
criticisms of his projections. Still a fun read:

http://tinyurl.com/263ak

If we have no major wars, revolutions, or other like disruptions, we
can expect the global economy to be about 4 times larger than it is
currently, with the top economies being China, US, and India.

Much of the worlds economies will be geared for industrial production.
We may hit the singularity with AI development; or it may just be the
entire world buying better cars and having more leisure time. But at
some point commercial space travel will be affordable, if for no other
reason than the growth of economies to the point of indulgence on
whim.

So when will commercially viable settlement be affordable?

Depends on what you mean by settlement. I will assume a community of
at least a few hundred, some planning on staying permanently, with a
locally-produced product, sold on Earth, that isn't subject to
cancellation by any particular government's whim. My guess: this will
happen within 20 years after the cost to Low Earth Orbit gets down to
$100US per pound.


The utilization of space increases as the cost of momentum goes down,
just as the utilization of computers increases as the cost of a
calculation goes down.

In the 1950s it was unbelievable that anyone but an international
corporation could make use of a computer. By the 1970s costs had
dropped to the point that we had games on computers. By the 1990s
there were more computers connected to a vast global computer network
known as the internet, than there were TVs in the 1950s.

Anyone in 1950 asking what the world of computing would be like in
2000 would be dumbfounded by the answer - it would appear overly
optimistic by many many times.

What brought this about? It wasn't a single magic bullet. It wasn't
government subsidy. It was and continues to be focus on improving the
core values of computers - by reducing the cost per computation.

As the cost of computing dropped, the market expanded, and the
platforms changed. As the cost of computing dropped, computers went
from mainframes, to minis, to micros, to desktops, to laptops, to
palmtops... and the trend continues.

The cost of momentum is the core value of a rocket. How much does it
cost to move a given payload through a given delta vee? Reduce that
cost and the use of rockets expands. We can even compare the cost of
rockets in imparting momentum to the cost of imparting momentum with
airplanes, autos, boats - and find when the use of rockets will have
the potential to economically displace each of these for long distance
high-value transport, short distance high value, long distance
low-value, and so forth.

Also, since the relative momentum of the Earth's surface to points
beyond the Earth's surface are well defined, as the cost of momentum
drops we can predict rather precisely the order of battle as it were
to achieving various goals in space.

So, without knowing a lot of details, we can discern some general
patterns - assuming only one thing. That continued investments in
rocket technology reduces its cost, and we further assume rockets will
not be used in anger against humans beyond their current roles and
capacities.

So, here is how the Earth's surface relates to the rest of the cosmos;

Suborbital travel
Earth Orbit
Lunar Surface
Interplanetary
Interstellar

When we try to figure what space is good for we can see a pattern over
the past 50 years of development and project what continued
development of the core value - cost of momentum - will produce;

1950 - ICBMS - Suborbital
1960 - Communication Satellites - Earth Orbit
1970 - Moon travel - Lunar Surface
1980 - Grand tour - Interplanetary

Around 1970 the plug was pulled on fundamental space development.
Since that time, we've perfected military other uses of space and
coasted on the momentum of the earlier decades. The primary
commercial uses have been the perfection of comsats moving from point
to point communications (telstar) to one to many (directv, sirius, xm)
and ultimately many to many (teledesic, iridium) as satellites
increase in sophistication we'll move from telephone to broadband
wireless internet that will support TV, HDTV, VR, and ultimately
telerobotics. People will live anywhere and work anywhere else by
driving robots around via wirless broadband internet and the robots
will create a virtual sense experience of what the robot experiences
to help the operator drive the robot accurately and naturally.

As the cost of momentum falls more things will be commercially viable
in space. These might include things like

Powersats - large payloads in Earth orbit beaming energy anywhere
its needed

Asteroid capture - instead of deflecting asteroids away from
collision with Earth we focus on deflecting asteroids into Earth orbit
to use as feedstock for space industry.

Factorysats - using remotely controlled robots powered by powersats
and operated by workers on the ground to manufacture anything in space
that can be manufactured on Earth. Then, deliver these products where
they're needed anywhere on Earth or in the solar system.

As the cost of momentum continues to fall rockets become common - so
they will eventually be used for;

Suborbital package delivery
Suborbital passenger service
Orbital passenger service

This last step will combine with continued expansion of space industry
to create;

Orbiting Space Home

Here, we will build space colonies, but not for 100,000s but for
families and small groups - to be privately owned. As costs drop,
everyone will own one. This again, is like saying in 1950 that
everyone will own several computers connected to a vast network of
computers to communicate anything we can imagine. Its unbelievable
but low costs of computation make it possible.

Same here. Someday everyone will own space homes and travel to them
in personal spaceships. When is determined by engineers focusing
single mindedly on the cost of momentum in rockets.

Continued reduction in the cost of momentum will mean;

Interplanetary Space Home

and ultimately,

Interstellar space home.

some day.

But once this is achieved, Earth centered norms will no longer apply
to the bulk of humanity. The future, as Arthur Clarke is fond of
saying, will have arrived and leave everything we now know as a
footnote in prehistory.

As the cost of momentum continues to fall rockets become common - so
they will eventually be used for;

Suborbital package delivery

No market.

Suborbital passenger service

No market.

Orbital passenger service

No market.

Please note, the fastest commercial transport is, since the demise of
the Concorde, slower, not faster. The increased costs were not worth
the savings in time. Diminishing returns will get you every time as
you try and move faster through the air.

"Paul F. Dietz" wrote in message ...
John Ordover wrote:

What product will that be, exactly?

Climate modification.

Paul


On Earth? Wow, wait for that, you'll wait a very long time.

h (Rand Simberg) wrote in message .. .
On Fri, 16 Apr 2004 19:39:19 -0500, in a place far, far away, "Paul F.
Dietz" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a
way as to indicate that:

John Ordover wrote:

What product will that be, exactly?

Climate modification.

Freedom.

Freedom isn't free. And you can't sell it.