What Are the Numbers Now?

A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3,
but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO
doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to
failures?

John Schutkeker wrote:
A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3,
but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO
doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to
failures?

According to a story about MRO in the March 11 Washington
Post, 21 of 35 Mars-bound spacecraft have failed during the
45 year history of Mars exploration. I'm not sure about those
numbers, or how they were counted.

According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia
suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered
5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in
two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions.

NASA's Mars missions include the following, listed by year
of launch.

Flyby Missions

Mariner 3 (FAILED) 1964
Mariner 4 1964
Mariner 6 1969
Mariner 7 1969

Orbiter/Lander Missions

Mariner 8 (FAILED orbiter) 1971
Mariner 9 (orbiter) 1971
Viking 1 (orbiter/lander) 1975
Viking 2 (orbiter/lander) 1975
Mars Observer (FAILED orbiter) 1992
Mars Global Surveyor (orbiter) 1996
Mars Pathfinder (lander) 1996
Mars Climate orbiter (FAILED orbiter) 1998
Mars Polar Lander (FAILED lander) 1999
Mars Odyssey (orbiter) 2001
Mars Expedition Rover A (lander) 2003
Mars Expedition Rover B (lander) 2003
Mars Reconnaisannce Orbiter (orbiter) 2005

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:
John Schutkeker wrote:
A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3,
but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO
doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to
failures?

According to a story about MRO in the March 11 Washington
Post, 21 of 35 Mars-bound spacecraft have failed during the
45 year history of Mars exploration. I'm not sure about those
numbers, or how they were counted.

According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia
suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered
5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in
two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions.

NASA's Mars missions include the following, listed by year
of launch.

Flyby Missions

Mariner 3 (FAILED) 1964
Mariner 4 1964
Mariner 6 1969
Mariner 7 1969

Orbiter/Lander Missions

Mariner 8 (FAILED orbiter) 1971
Mariner 9 (orbiter) 1971
Viking 1 (orbiter/lander) 1975
Viking 2 (orbiter/lander) 1975
Mars Observer (FAILED orbiter) 1992
Mars Global Surveyor (orbiter) 1996
Mars Pathfinder (lander) 1996
Mars Climate orbiter (FAILED orbiter) 1998
Mars Polar Lander (FAILED lander) 1999
Mars Odyssey (orbiter) 2001
Mars Expedition Rover A (lander) 2003
Mars Expedition Rover B (lander) 2003
Mars Reconnaisannce Orbiter (orbiter) 2005

I just realized that with the MRO orbit insertion
(and assuming that all continues to go O.K.),
NASA has just recorded its longest consecutive
string of Mars mission successes (four).

- Ed Kyle

Ed Kyle wrote:
According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia
suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered
5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in
two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions.

JAXA (ex-NASDA) had also their Nozomi (Planet-B) mission, but
unfortunately it failed to perform its MOI.

Matti
--
http://masa.net/space/

Ed Kyle ) wrote:
: Ed Kyle wrote:
: John Schutkeker wrote:
: A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster was 1/3,
: but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming that MRO
: doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of successes to
: failures?
:
: According to a story about MRO in the March 11 Washington
: Post, 21 of 35 Mars-bound spacecraft have failed during the
: 45 year history of Mars exploration. I'm not sure about those
: numbers, or how they were counted.
:
: According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia
: suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered
: 5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in
: two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions.
:
: NASA's Mars missions include the following, listed by year
: of launch.
:
: Flyby Missions
:
: Mariner 3 (FAILED) 1964
: Mariner 4 1964
: Mariner 6 1969
: Mariner 7 1969
:
: Orbiter/Lander Missions
:
: Mariner 8 (FAILED orbiter) 1971
: Mariner 9 (orbiter) 1971
: Viking 1 (orbiter/lander) 1975
: Viking 2 (orbiter/lander) 1975
: Mars Observer (FAILED orbiter) 1992
: Mars Global Surveyor (orbiter) 1996
: Mars Pathfinder (lander) 1996
: Mars Climate orbiter (FAILED orbiter) 1998
: Mars Polar Lander (FAILED lander) 1999
: Mars Odyssey (orbiter) 2001
: Mars Expedition Rover A (lander) 2003
: Mars Expedition Rover B (lander) 2003
: Mars Reconnaisannce Orbiter (orbiter) 2005

: I just realized that with the MRO orbit insertion
: (and assuming that all continues to go O.K.),
: NASA has just recorded its longest consecutive
: string of Mars mission successes (four).

knock on wood...

Eric

: - Ed Kyle

Matti Anttila wrote in :

Ed Kyle wrote:
According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia
suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered
5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in
two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions.

JAXA (ex-NASDA) had also their Nozomi (Planet-B) mission, but
unfortunately it failed to perform its MOI.

Was that Japanese, was it an orbiter or a lander, and what year was it?

"Ed Kyle" wrote in
oups.com:


John Schutkeker wrote:
A while back, the fraction of Mars missions that ended in disaster
was 1/3, but that was before several resounding successes. Assuming
that MRO doesn't break down any time soon, what is the new ratio of
successes to failures?

According to a story about MRO in the March 11 Washington
Post, 21 of 35 Mars-bound spacecraft have failed during the
45 year history of Mars exploration. I'm not sure about those
numbers, or how they were counted.

According to The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Space, Russia
suffered 11 failures in 16 Mars missions, NASA suffered
5 failures in 17 missions, and Europe suffered 1 failure in
two missions - a total of 17 failures in 35 missions.

NASA's Mars missions include the following, listed by year
of launch.

Flyby Missions

Mariner 3 (FAILED) 1964
Mariner 4 1964
Mariner 6 1969
Mariner 7 1969

Orbiter/Lander Missions

Mariner 8 (FAILED orbiter) 1971
Mariner 9 (orbiter) 1971
Viking 1 (orbiter/lander) 1975
Viking 2 (orbiter/lander) 1975
Mars Observer (FAILED orbiter) 1992
Mars Global Surveyor (orbiter) 1996
Mars Pathfinder (lander) 1996
Mars Climate orbiter (FAILED orbiter) 1998
Mars Polar Lander (FAILED lander) 1999
Mars Odyssey (orbiter) 2001
Mars Expedition Rover A (lander) 2003
Mars Expedition Rover B (lander) 2003
Mars Reconnaisannce Orbiter (orbiter) 2005


Am I correct that this data would be best modelled as a Poisson process?

Matti Anttila wrote in :

John Schutkeker wrote:

Was that Japanese, was it an orbiter or a lander, and what year was
it?

Nozomi was Japanese. It was an orbiter which made its Mars fly-by
(supposed to perform an MOI) in December 2003. So it belonged to the
"crowd" of ESA's MEX, UK's Beagle-2 and MER-1 and MER-2.
Due to its unsuccessful MOI, it is now in heliocentric orbit, as far
as I know. See:

http://www.jaxa.jp/missions/projects...mi/index_e.htm
l

Did this probe follow a more complex trajectory to the destination, or do
the Japanese put more technical detail into their articles and draw better
pictures?

Here's my scorecard:

The Mars Scorecard
missions attempting to orbit or land on Mars

Out of 22 attempts:
Failures: 13 (59%)
Successes: 9 (41%)



Mission Country Date Type Success/Failure mode
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mariner 8 US 1971 Orbiter Launch failure
Mariner 9 US 1971 Orbiter SUCCESS
Unknown USSR 1971 Orbiter Launch failure
Mars 2 USSR 1971 Lander Lost while landing in dust storm
Mars 3 USSR 1971 Lander Lost while landing in dust storm
Viking I US 1975 Orbiter/Lander SUCCESS
Viking II US 1975 Orbiter/Lander SUCCESS
Phobos I USSR 1988 Phobos Lander Failed in flight to Mars
Phobos II USSR 1988 Phobos Lander Failed in Mars orbit*
Mars Observer US 1990 Orbiter Fuel line rupture on insertion
Mars '96 Ru/ESA 1996 Orbiter/Lander Failed TMI
Mars Pathfinder US 1997 Lander SUCCESS
Mars Global Sur. US 1997 Orbiter SUCCESS
Nozomi Japan 1998 Orbiter Fuel use error
Mars Clim. Orb. US 1998 Orbiter Destroyed in aerobraking
Mars Polar Landr US 1999 Lander Failure during entry/landing
DS-2 US 1999 penetrator failure at Mars (see note**)
Mars Odyssey US 2001 Orbiter SUCCESS
Beagle-2 UK 2003 Lander Failed at Mars
Mars Express ESA 2003 Orbiter SUCCESS
MER A Spirit US 2004 lander SUCCESS
MER B Opportunity US 2004 lander SUCCESS



notes:
*The Phobos-II mission failed its primary mission, but did succeed in
reaching Mars orbit and making some measurements.
**The DS-2 microprobes went to Mars on the Polar Lander Spacecraft.
Depending on how you count spacecraft that separate into multiple
parts, this may be considered part of the Polar Lander (however, by
this count several successful spacecraft, such as both Vikings, have to
be counted as two spacecraft)


-- if you add fly-by spacecraft, it doesn't change much

Failures: 18 (60%)
Successes: 12 (40%)


--
Geoffrey A. Landis
http://www.sff.net/people/geoffrey.landis

Oops, I hadn't added MRO to the scorecard! Assuming MRO doesn't
mysteriously fail during areobraking, the updated numbers are

Out of 23 attempts:
Failures: 13 (56%)
Successes: 10 (43%)
--
Geoffrey A. Landis
http://www.sff.net/people/geoffrey.landis