Asteroid hitting Earth in 98 years

The German "Bild" newspaper published last days an article about an
asteroid of around 500 km in diameter on collision course with Earth
expected to eventually hitting Earth in 98 years.

Is it just a newspaper rubbish or can someone here confirm this information?

Claudio

"Claudio Grondi" wrote:

The German "Bild" newspaper published last days an article about an
asteroid of around 500 km in diameter on collision course with Earth
expected to eventually hitting Earth in 98 years.

Is it just a newspaper rubbish or can someone here confirm this information?

More like 500 m, and a small probability of a collision with Earth.


Asteroid 2004 VD17 Classed as Torino Scale 2

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Wednesday, March 1, 2006
Source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory

At the end of February, orbital calculations for near-earth-asteroid (NEA)
2004 VD17 indicated that the risk of an impact within the next century
(specifically on May 4, 2102) was higher than that of any other known
asteroid. The probability, based on 687 telescopic observations spanning
475 days, is listed on the NASA/JPL NEO Program webpage as a bit less
than 1 in 1000. This probability, while small, raises the possible 2102 impact
to a Torino scale value of 2 (meriting attention from astronomers), which is
higher than any other asteroid. (Note: the impact probability for 1950 DA is
larger, but since this hazard is not realized until 2080, it falls outside the one-
century range of the Torino scale).

Judging from its brightness, NEA 2004 VD17 has a nominal diameter
near 500 m and a mass of nearly a billion tons. While below the threshold
for a global catastrophe, the nominal impact energy of more than 10,000
megatons is comparable to all the world's nuclear arsenals. There are no
radar observations available, and the asteroid has not been characterized
in any detail, so all these numbers should be taken as approximate.

For comparison, NEA Apophis (formerly 2004 MN4) is currently listed on
the NEO webpage as Torino scale 1, with an impact probability on April 13,
2036, of about 1 part in 5000. Apophis is also smaller, with a nominal
diameter of 300 m and mass of less than 100 million tons. These are the
only two asteroids currently with a Torino Scale listing of greater than 0.

Fortunately, it is nearly a century before the close pass from VD17. This
should provide ample time to refine the orbit and, most probably, determine
that the asteroid will miss the Earth. On the other hand, there are no near-
term opportunities for additional observations, so VD17 will probably remain
at Torino scale 2 for quite some time.

All the above information is taken from the NASA/JPL NEO Program Office
webpage at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov.

Paul Smith wrote:
"Claudio Grondi" wrote in message
...

The German "Bild" newspaper published last days an article about an
asteroid of around 500 km in diameter on collision course with Earth
expected to eventually hitting Earth in 98 years.

Is it just a newspaper rubbish or can someone here confirm this
information?


500km ? Sounds like newspaper rubbish to me.

I think the writer/editor need to check their numbers before I'd even look
further.

Sorry, my fault - the origin of the rubbish 500 km was me myself wrong
remembering the unit in which the diameter was given. At least I know
now which sizes I can expect a known asteroid to be.

Anyway, the newspaper has not given the necessary background information
like this provided here by Ed - probably just written a bit out of the
sensation mongering.

Claudio

Ed wrote:
"Claudio Grondi" wrote:


The German "Bild" newspaper published last days an article about an
asteroid of around 500 km in diameter on collision course with Earth
expected to eventually hitting Earth in 98 years.

Is it just a newspaper rubbish or can someone here confirm this information?


More like 500 m, and a small probability of a collision with Earth.


Asteroid 2004 VD17 Classed as Torino Scale 2

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Wednesday, March 1, 2006
Source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory

At the end of February, orbital calculations for near-earth-asteroid (NEA)
2004 VD17 indicated that the risk of an impact within the next century
(specifically on May 4, 2102) was higher than that of any other known
asteroid. The probability, based on 687 telescopic observations spanning
475 days, is listed on the NASA/JPL NEO Program webpage as a bit less
than 1 in 1000. This probability, while small, raises the possible 2102 impact
to a Torino scale value of 2 (meriting attention from astronomers), which is
higher than any other asteroid. (Note: the impact probability for 1950 DA is
larger, but since this hazard is not realized until 2080, it falls outside the one-
century range of the Torino scale).

Judging from its brightness, NEA 2004 VD17 has a nominal diameter
near 500 m and a mass of nearly a billion tons. While below the threshold
for a global catastrophe, the nominal impact energy of more than 10,000
megatons is comparable to all the world's nuclear arsenals. There are no
radar observations available, and the asteroid has not been characterized
in any detail, so all these numbers should be taken as approximate.

For comparison, NEA Apophis (formerly 2004 MN4) is currently listed on
the NEO webpage as Torino scale 1, with an impact probability on April 13,
2036, of about 1 part in 5000. Apophis is also smaller, with a nominal
diameter of 300 m and mass of less than 100 million tons. These are the
only two asteroids currently with a Torino Scale listing of greater than 0.

Fortunately, it is nearly a century before the close pass from VD17. This
should provide ample time to refine the orbit and, most probably, determine
that the asteroid will miss the Earth. On the other hand, there are no near-
term opportunities for additional observations, so VD17 will probably remain
at Torino scale 2 for quite some time.

All the above information is taken from the NASA/JPL NEO Program Office
webpage at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov.



Thank you much for this very informative reply and the URL.

It would be so easy to give these information to this extent also in the
newspaper, but it wasn't provided. I have to admit, that the newspaper
mentioned the probability of 1 in 1000, but the text suggested at the
same time a very high chance of a collision with Earth and concentrated
on description of the disaster scenario after the impact.

Claudio

(specifically on May 4, 2102)

May the fourth it will be with you (and us) ! ;O)

It would be so easy to give these information to this extent also in the
newspaper, but it wasn't provided. I have to admit, that the newspaper
mentioned the probability of 1 in 1000, but the text suggested at the
same time a very high chance of a collision with Earth and concentrated
on description of the disaster scenario after the impact.

Unfortunately, that is what sells newspapers.

:-(

Chuck Taylor
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http://groups.yahoo.com/group/lunar-observing/

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