Don't count on the Chinese to ignite a new space race

"Ultimate Buu" wrote ...
http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/03080....mmw6dkx5.html

The Chinese want to put a robot on the Moon in about 20 years! Phew! I think
a commercial U.S. company is doing something similar next year or so. And it
took the U.S. only 8 years to put a MAN on the moon. This completely
squashes my dream of the Chinese igniting another space race. Woe is us.

Don't worry. Things really start heating up in 2340 when the Pan-Asiatic Alliance
launches their first relativistic probe to Banards Star.

"Ultimate Buu" wrote in message
...
http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/03080....mmw6dkx5.html

The Chinese want to put a robot on the Moon in about 20 years! Phew! I
think
a commercial U.S. company is doing something similar next year or so. And
it
took the U.S. only 8 years to put a MAN on the moon. This completely
squashes my dream of the Chinese igniting another space race. Woe is us.


The U.S. was in a race with another nation; China is in a race with it's own
people, technology and it's own inability to do anything original.

They're supposed to be launching a human into orbit in October, last I
heard, but....

--
Alan Erskine
alanerskine(at)optusnet.com.au
Is Lewis Moran the type of father figure
John Howard wants for Australian children?

Ultimate Buu wrote:

"Alan Erskine" wrote in message
u...
"Ultimate Buu" wrote in message
...
http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/03080....mmw6dkx5.html

The Chinese want to put a robot on the Moon in about 20 years! Phew! I
think
a commercial U.S. company is doing something similar next year or so.
And
it
took the U.S. only 8 years to put a MAN on the moon. This completely
squashes my dream of the Chinese igniting another space race. Woe is us.


The U.S. was in a race with another nation; China is in a race with it's
own
people, technology and it's own inability to do anything original.


They haven't learned their lesson yet, it seems, as their Shenzhou is
basically a re-styled Soyuz.

We know the orbital compartment is different. It may be somewhat
modified in the crew section, too.

Everyone knows it's a Soyuz knock-off (Buran looked, um, slightly
familiar, too.). The question is, can they *do* it, and do it
consistently, then go on to something better? Remember, the Soviet
bomber force started with B-29 knock-offs, too...

Last I saw, *Europe* wasn't on the verge of launching it's own man
into space, in any vehicle, copied or original. (Unless we count
Starchaser...)

"Joann Evans" wrote in message
...
Ultimate Buu wrote:

"Alan Erskine" wrote in message
u...
"Ultimate Buu" wrote in message
...
http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/03080....mmw6dkx5.html
Everyone knows it's a Soyuz knock-off (Buran looked, um, slightly
familiar, too.). The question is, can they *do* it, and do it
consistently, then go on to something better? Remember, the Soviet
bomber force started with B-29 knock-offs, too...

Last I saw, *Europe* wasn't on the verge of launching it's own man
into space, in any vehicle, copied or original. (Unless we count
Starchaser...)

Europe isn't interested in the expense of its own human space program.
China seems to be stuck in the 50's/60's space race mentality with no other
reason for this program than national prestige. If, however, they joined
the international community, they would progress much faster, but their
political system is incompatible with the rest of the world.
--
Alan Erskine
alanerskine(at)optusnet.com.au
Is Lewis Moran the type of father figure
John Howard wants for Australian children?

Alan Erskine wrote:
"Joann Evans" wrote in message
...
Ultimate Buu wrote:

"Alan Erskine" wrote in message
u...
"Ultimate Buu" wrote in message
...
http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/03080....mmw6dkx5.html
Everyone knows it's a Soyuz knock-off (Buran looked, um, slightly
familiar, too.). The question is, can they *do* it, and do it
consistently, then go on to something better? Remember, the Soviet
bomber force started with B-29 knock-offs, too...

Last I saw, *Europe* wasn't on the verge of launching it's own man
into space, in any vehicle, copied or original. (Unless we count
Starchaser...)

Europe isn't interested in the expense of its own human space program.
China seems to be stuck in the 50's/60's space race mentality with no other
reason for this program than national prestige. If, however, they joined
the international community, they would progress much faster, but their
political system is incompatible with the rest of the world.

Why start spending on the manned spaceflight program before its clear if and
what it will be used for? Surely it makes sense to first figure out if
the target is to go to Moon or Mars and develop teh project based on that
assumption? For normal ISS visits and similar there is the Shuttle and
the Soyuz...

--
Alan Erskine
alanerskine(at)optusnet.com.au
Is Lewis Moran the type of father figure
John Howard wants for Australian children?



--
Sander

+++ Out of cheese error +++

Alan Erskine wrote:

"Joann Evans" wrote in message
...
Ultimate Buu wrote:

"Alan Erskine" wrote in message
u...
"Ultimate Buu" wrote in message
...
http://www.spacedaily.com/2003/03080....mmw6dkx5.html
Everyone knows it's a Soyuz knock-off (Buran looked, um, slightly
familiar, too.). The question is, can they *do* it, and do it
consistently, then go on to something better? Remember, the Soviet
bomber force started with B-29 knock-offs, too...

Last I saw, *Europe* wasn't on the verge of launching it's own man
into space, in any vehicle, copied or original. (Unless we count
Starchaser...)

Europe isn't interested in the expense of its own human space program.

They've often stated they want an independent human access to space.
And considering that they're otherwise at the mercy of US policy
changes, or hardware standwown issues (as we are at the moment), it
makes sense. They never seem to to pursue this seriously, but they keep
coming up with plenty of concepts, of which Hermes seemed to get the
farthest.

China seems to be stuck in the 50's/60's space race mentality with no other
reason for this program than national prestige.

Perhaps. So? One need not agree with the motivation, to observe that
they still seem to want it....

If, however, they joined
the international community, they would progress much faster, but their
political system is incompatible with the rest of the world.

Or they may also (and this relates to your above argument) believe
that without a demonstrated manned capability, they'll be percieved as
having litle to offfer. And to some extent, they may be right.

And it's not unusual in Chinese policy to minimize dependence on the
West for anything.

TKalbfus wrote:

But it seems the Chinese aren't interested in doing something original or
bold, just to get themselves into the history books for the third nation in
space. I certainly question (like many others in this NG) if the Chinese are
capable (at this time) of doing anything original at all.


Sending people to the Moon is not very original as its been done before, but
they could send people to the Moon, and that would bring them a long way toward
sending people to Mars, they would have better guidance systems than we did in
the 1960's. They could send people to the Moon while were still fiddling with
the space station and trying to get the shuttle to work.

Tom

Partly agreed, but I'd say that the Moon's at *least* 15 years away
from their first Earth orbital mission. Lack of a heavy-lift (from when
that meant something in the Saturn/Energia class) launcher would seem to
be the most obvious reason.

If we haven't dealt with our present Shuttle/ISS issues by that time,
I'd say something was catastrophically wrong here...

"Alan Erskine" wrote in message
"Ultimate Buu" wrote in message
...
The Chinese want to put a robot on the Moon in about 20 years! Phew! ...

The U.S. was in a race with another nation; China is in a race with it's
own
people, technology and it's own inability to do anything original.

Maybe they can follow another Russian example and blackmail the US into
elbowing their way into the ISS and have the US pay the Chinese share of
the ISS :-)

: Europe isn't interested in the expense of its own human space program.
: China seems to be stuck in the 50's/60's space race mentality with no other
: reason for this program than national prestige.

You mean like the U.S. ??

:If, however, they joined
: the international community, they would progress much faster, but their
: political system is incompatible with the rest of the world.

China is certainly a member of the "international community",
one of the most important economic players and a nation with a large
array of contacts/interactions with the world space community. Just
because China does not have an official major 'partnership', don't put
it in a category with North Korea. Chinese scientists/engineers are
constantly traveling/working across the word, China has contracts with
interational businesses, etc. etc. If having a non-democratic government
made a nation "incompatible" with the world, the UN would have about a
dozen members.
The US decrying a "space race"? Perhaps a bit of sour grapes...

regards,
-------------------------------------------------

TKalbfus wrote:

But it seems the Chinese aren't interested in doing something original or
bold, just to get themselves into the history books for the third nation in
space. I certainly question (like many others in this NG) if the Chinese are
capable (at this time) of doing anything original at all.


Sending people to the Moon is not very original as its been done before, but
they could send people to the Moon, and that would bring them a long way toward
sending people to Mars, they would have better guidance systems than we did in
the 1960's. They could send people to the Moon while were still fiddling with
the space station and trying to get the shuttle to work.

Tom

The chinese didn't invent running shoes or socket wrenches either, but they seem to
have taken over the market for these and many other items. When trips to the moon
get to be common, they will likely be on chinese rockets.

John Halpenny