SpaceX -- Falcon I developmental testing complete

According to a source at one of its customers, SpaceX now considers its
developmental testing of Falcon I components to be complete. The engine
qualification described on their media link,
http://www.wired.com/news/space/0,26...w=wn_tophead_1,
was the last major 'pre-launch' system qualification.
What remains to be done prior to the first Falcon launch is a holddown
firing of the fully fueled rocket at Vandenburg, several miscellaneous
bits of 'assurance testing' (is that like integrated system testing
prior to launch?), Tac Sat-1 integration, and then a significant amount
of paperwork.

What this all means is the earliest Falcon-I is expected to launch is
now effectively sometime in May (although late April is supposedly
still technically feasible).

With Falcon I now debuting almost mid-year, it might be more than a
year before Falcon V ever gets to a launchpad--although I don't claim
to have any special knowledge on this, just guessing from the
publically available data. Also I keep hearing rising estimates of
Falcon V price--last I heard was $18-$20 million. Although that's
almost double what was originally put forward ($12.6 mil), it's still
less than a fourth of what a comparable Delta III goes for ($80 mil) or
even a third of the cost of a Zenit 3SL.

Tom Cuddihy

Tom Cuddihy wrote:
Also I keep hearing rising estimates of
Falcon V price--last I heard was $18-$20 million. Although that's
almost double what was originally put forward ($12.6 mil), it's still
less than a fourth of what a comparable Delta III goes for ($80 mil) or
even a third of the cost of a Zenit 3SL.

Their website is now quoting a price of:
$15.8 million plus modest range fees...

So about a 30% increase, not anywhere near doubling.

They said that the $12-13 mil only applied for orders in 2004.
I was figuring on a lower increase than that, but it's not out
of the realm of reasonable. I suspect that large orders will
get some discount out of them.


-george william herbert

To quibble, the $15.8 million is for 2004 contracts (half bays go for
$8.9 million). Who knows what current contracts are going for.

The payload specs have increased by about 20% too (using the Merlin II
engines), so all-in-all, I guess it's not a bad deal.

I don't know what a Dnepr rocket launch is going for, but the figures
on the net suggest that the Russians will still be the low cost
launchers. If I were a customer, I would pay some money to go to
Vandenberg or Cape Canaveral rather than Kazakhstan, but that's just a
personal preference. ;-)

Their website is now quoting a price of:
$15.8 million plus modest range fees...

So about a 30% increase, not anywhere near doubling.
I didn't hear the $18-20 mil number from the website.

Daniel Schmelzer wrote:
To quibble, the $15.8 million is for 2004 contracts (half bays go for
$8.9 million). Who knows what current contracts are going for.

No, $12.6 million was for 2004 contracts, 2005 contracts are
quoted at the aforementioned $15.8 million on their website.

The payload specs have increased by about 20% too (using the Merlin II
engines), so all-in-all, I guess it's not a bad deal.

I don't know what a Dnepr rocket launch is going for, but the figures
on the net suggest that the Russians will still be the low cost
launchers. If I were a customer, I would pay some money to go to
Vandenberg or Cape Canaveral rather than Kazakhstan, but that's just a
personal preference. ;-)

Dnepr's quoted prices tend to be $12-20 million, so in the same
general range as Falcon-V.

Dnepr also has a nearly 8 G burnout, higher acoustical loading,
higher vibrations, etc.

It's a little "hot".

If your payload can live with it, that's fine. And having
multiple launcher options for a payload is always a good thing.


-george william herbert

Hi George--

Maybe we're looking at different pages. I quote:

"For contracts completed in 2004, Falcon I is offered for $5.9 million
and Falcon V for $15.8 million plus modest range fees that vary by
launch location. A half bay flight of Falcon V will be available at
$8.9 million to accommodate customers with payloads in between Falcon I
and V."

http://www.spacex.com/index.html?sec...n_overview.php


In any event, thanks for the info on the Dnepr. I wonder what Bigelow
is paying for his 6 launch contract.

Regards--

Dan

In article ,
George William Herbert wrote:
If your payload can live with [Dnepr], that's fine. And having
multiple launcher options for a payload is always a good thing.

Indeed, historically the comsat guys don't start seriously planning
satellites of size X until there are *two* launchers of size X available.
--
"Think outside the box -- the box isn't our friend." | Henry Spencer
-- George Herbert |

Daniel Schmelzer wrote:
Hi George--

Maybe we're looking at different pages. I quote:

"For contracts completed in 2004, Falcon I is offered for $5.9 million
and Falcon V for $15.8 million plus modest range fees that vary by
launch location. A half bay flight of Falcon V will be available at
$8.9 million to accommodate customers with payloads in between Falcon I
and V."

Interesting, you're right that it does say 2004.

I believe that they changed the dollar figure in late 2004
when they announced Falcon-V's switch to a single Merlin in
the second stage and the new peformance estimates for it.
For the first 10 or so months of 2004 it said $12 million
for 2004 contracts. Checking with the Internet Archive
(www.archive.org) for the URL http://www.spacex.com/falcon_overview.php
finds two copies of it from Jan and Feb 2004, both of which say
$12 million for 2004 contracts, but no archived later 2004 entries.

I think it's a typo, that the 15.8 million is the 2005
number, but I can't prove it to you.


-george william herbert

I believe that they changed the dollar figure in late 2004
when they announced Falcon-V's switch to a single Merlin in
the second stage and the new peformance estimates for it. BRBR


BTW, I asked someone at SpaceX if Musk knew that his engine names, Kestel and
Merlin, were not only falcon-related but also the names of British aircraft
engines of WWII. I knew Musk was a bit of a space history buff, so I wasn't
surprised to learn that, yes, they did know that.


Matt Bille
)
OPINIONS IN ALL POSTS ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR

In follow-up to this message, isn't it likely in any event that the
Falcon V will have a similar G profile to the Dnepr? I note that
according to the Falcon I payload users guide, max Gs may go as high as
7.7 on Stage I burnout. See Table 6.2.
http://www.spacex.com/payloaduserguide.pdf