SpaceX Falcon 1 unlikely to re-coup investment !

Spacenews August 16 Page 9

"On Falcon 1 alone I'm unlikely to re-coup my investment, but with
Falcon 5 and Falcon 1, together I think that I probably will." Said
Elon Musk of SpaceX

I consider SpaceX to be one of the most serious Alt. Space companies
around and wish them all the best in their launch business. But, this
doesn't look encouraging, after the resent DARPA Falcon win and with a
waiting list of potential payload customers, what would be the
motivation for other companies to attempt to build other small orbital
launch vehicles?

K2

k2 wrote:

"On Falcon 1 alone I'm unlikely to re-coup my investment, but with
Falcon 5 and Falcon 1, together I think that I probably will." Said
Elon Musk of SpaceX

I consider SpaceX to be one of the most serious Alt. Space companies
around and wish them all the best in their launch business. But, this
doesn't look encouraging, after the resent DARPA Falcon win and with a
waiting list of potential payload customers, what would be the
motivation for other companies to attempt to build other small orbital
launch vehicles?

To learn how, so they can build bigger ones. Unlike much of the
industry, Elon views R&D as a cost of doing business, rather than a
profit center.

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
ink.net...
k2 wrote:

"On Falcon 1 alone I'm unlikely to re-coup my investment, but with
Falcon 5 and Falcon 1, together I think that I probably will." Said
Elon Musk of SpaceX

I consider SpaceX to be one of the most serious Alt. Space companies
around and wish them all the best in their launch business. But, this
doesn't look encouraging, after the resent DARPA Falcon win and with a
waiting list of potential payload customers, what would be the
motivation for other companies to attempt to build other small orbital
launch vehicles?

To learn how, so they can build bigger ones. Unlike much of the
industry, Elon views R&D as a cost of doing business, rather than a
profit center.

Which means that Elon Musk isn't contracting R&D to the government\
but only launch services. Since no one else is paying his development
costs the down side is that he can't afford too many mistakes.

The problem with private companies having the motivation to
"learn how, so they can build bigger ones" is that this involves high
initial sunk costs in the hope of making it all back later on another
vehicle that has significant development costs of its own.

Here is hoping that Space-X can get off to a good start
on its vehicle.

Mike Walsh

A risky, private rocket venture such as SpaceX has to absorb a hefty
annual discount rate even if no cash goes out the door. For SpaceX,
this is probably 20-25% per annum.

A risky, private rocket venture such as SpaceX has to absorb a hefty
annual discount rate even if no cash goes out the door. For SpaceX,
this is probably 20-25% per annum.

"Mike Walsh" wrote in message ...
"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
ink.net...
k2 wrote:

"On Falcon 1 alone I'm unlikely to re-coup my investment, but with
Falcon 5 and Falcon 1, together I think that I probably will." Said
Elon Musk of SpaceX

I consider SpaceX to be one of the most serious Alt. Space companies
around and wish them all the best in their launch business. But, this
doesn't look encouraging, after the resent DARPA Falcon win and with a
waiting list of potential payload customers, what would be the
motivation for other companies to attempt to build other small orbital
launch vehicles?

To learn how, so they can build bigger ones. Unlike much of the
industry, Elon views R&D as a cost of doing business, rather than a
profit center.

The problem with private companies having the motivation to
"learn how, so they can build bigger ones" is that this involves high
initial sunk costs in the hope of making it all back later on another
vehicle that has significant development costs of its own.

Q. How do you make a small fortune in the Alt. Space business?
A. Start with a large fortune!

Q. How do you make a small fortune in the Alt. Space business?
A. Start with a large fortune! BRBR


Space-X's Elon Musk, who of course has a large fortune, used that joke twice at
the Conference on Small Satellites.



Matt Bille
)
OPINIONS IN ALL POSTS ARE SOLELY THOSE OF THE AUTHOR

Mike Walsh wrote:

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
ink.net...
k2 wrote:

"On Falcon 1 alone I'm unlikely to re-coup my investment, but with
Falcon 5 and Falcon 1, together I think that I probably will." Said
Elon Musk of SpaceX

I consider SpaceX to be one of the most serious Alt. Space companies
around and wish them all the best in their launch business. But, this
doesn't look encouraging, after the resent DARPA Falcon win and with a
waiting list of potential payload customers, what would be the
motivation for other companies to attempt to build other small orbital
launch vehicles?

To learn how, so they can build bigger ones. Unlike much of the
industry, Elon views R&D as a cost of doing business, rather than a
profit center.

Which means that Elon Musk isn't contracting R&D to the government\
but only launch services. Since no one else is paying his development
costs the down side is that he can't afford too many mistakes.

Aerospace is in many ways pretty singular this way.


The problem with private companies having the motivation to
"learn how, so they can build bigger ones" is that this involves high
initial sunk costs in the hope of making it all back later on another
vehicle that has significant development costs of its own.

Not unliek a lot of other things.


Here is hoping that Space-X can get off to a good start
on its vehicle.

Mike Walsh



--
Sander

+++ Out of cheese error +++