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Another hold, another delay - after a fashion



 
 
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  #1  
Old May 3rd 16, 10:52 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Rick Jones[_6_]
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Default Another hold, another delay - after a fashion


http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/05...ed_until_2020/

Troubles building the hardware is the claim.

rick jones
--
"You can't do a damn thing in this house without having to do three
other things first!" - my father (It seems universally applicable
these opinions are mine, all mine; HPE might not want them anyway...
feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hpe.com but NOT BOTH...
  #2  
Old May 4th 16, 03:19 AM posted to sci.space.policy
William Mook[_2_]
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Default Another hold, another delay - after a fashion

On Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 10:02:36 AM UTC+12, Rick Jones wrote:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/05...ed_until_2020/

Troubles building the hardware is the claim.

rick jones
--
"You can't do a damn thing in this house without having to do three
other things first!" - my father (It seems universally applicable
these opinions are mine, all mine; HPE might not want them anyway...
feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hpe.com but NOT BOTH...


http://exploration.esa.int/mars/

Exomars 2016 Launch: Monday 14 March 2016.

Synodic Period: 779.94 days ~ 780 days.

Future launch windows;

Result 1: Thursday, 3 May 2018 ===== This is when Musk says he will launch Red Dragon
Result 2: Sunday, 21 June 2020 ===== Exomars delaying until here
Result 3: Wednesday, 10 August 2022
Result 4: Saturday, 28 September 2024
Result 5: Tuesday, 17 November 2026
Result 6: Friday, 5 January 2029
Result 7: Monday, 24 February 2031
Result 8: Thursday, 14 April 2033
Result 9: Sunday, 3 June 2035
Result 10: Wednesday, 22 July 2037
Result 11: Saturday, 10 September 2039
Result 12: Tuesday, 29 October 2041
Result 13: Friday, 18 December 2043
Result 14: Monday, 5 February 2046
Result 15: Thursday, 26 March 2048

The Earth is 1.000 AU from the Sun and takes 1.000 year to orbit the sun.
Mars is 1.524 AU from the Sun (on average) and takes 1.524^1.5 = 1.881 years to orbit the Sun.
A transfer orbit between Earth and Mars is (1.000 + 1.524)/2 = 1.262 AU semi-major axis.
The period of objects in that transfer orbit is 1.262^1.5 = 1.4177 years.
An object moving from Earth orbit to Mars orbit traverses half the orbit. So, dividing 1.4177 years by two and multiplying by 365.26 days per year obtains a transfer time of 258.92 days ~ 259 days.

So, adding 259 days to each of the days above obtains arrival times at Mars

Result 1: Thursday, 17 January 2019 === Red Dragon arrives at Mars
Result 2: Sunday, 7 March 2021 ==== Exomars arrives at Mars.
Result 3: Wednesday, 26 April 2023
Result 4: Saturday, 14 June 2025
Result 5: Tuesday, 3 August 2027
Result 6: Friday, 21 September 2029
Result 7: Monday, 10 November 2031
Result 8: Thursday, 29 December 2033
Result 9: Sunday, 17 February 2036
Result 10: Wednesday, 7 April 2038
Result 11: Saturday, 26 May 2040
Result 12: Tuesday, 15 July 2042
Result 13: Friday, 2 September 2044
Result 14: Monday, 22 October 2046 == I celebrate my 93rd Birthday!
Result 15: Thursday, 10 December 2048
Result 16: Sunday, 29 January 2051

It would be very cool to see Red Dragon touch down on Diemos with a crew of Atlas robots on board, and have them fly by rocket belt to land at dozens of different locations on the Martian surface and return to Earth.

http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/t..._company.shtml

http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/r...cs-atlas-robot

Then reuse the spacecraft to send 7 people to Mars in Stasis in 2020.

https://vanwinkles.com/latest-scienc...r-space-travel
http://gizmodo.com/how-traveling-to-...-ac-1725605323
http://www.livescience.com/33053-can...animation.html
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/a-b...y-of-cryosleep

Now, Earth moves through 360 degrees in 1 year. Mars moves through 360 degrees in 1.881 years. So, for the Earth to be in position of the spacecraft 180 degrees from where Mars was at the launch 0.71686 years prior to its arrival, the Earth must be 75.13 degrees behind Mars at launch from Mars. Now, its 75.13 degrees ahead of Mars at arrival from Earth. So, a spacecraft on Mars must wait 213 days after arrival to come back to Earth. The ship returns (if it is to return) to Earth by leaving Mars on this day and arriving on Earth 259 days after that! So anything that was sent to Mars can return these days;

Result 1: Sunday, 18 August 2019 --- Red Dragon Leaves Mars.
Result 2: Wednesday, 6 October 2021 --- Exomars return capsule leaves Mars..
Result 3: Saturday, 25 November 2023
Result 4: Tuesday, 13 January 2026
Result 5: Friday, 3 March 2028
Result 6: Monday, 22 April 2030
Result 7: Thursday, 10 June 2032
Result 8: Sunday, 30 July 2034
Result 9: Wednesday, 17 September 2036
Result 10: Saturday, 6 November 2038
Result 11: Tuesday, 25 December 2040
Result 12: Friday, 13 February 2043
Result 13: Monday, 3 April 2045
Result 14: Thursday, 23 May 2047
Result 15: Sunday, 11 July 2049
Result 16: Wednesday, 30 August 2051

And arrive at Earth 259 days later on these days.

Result 1: Tuesday, 2 June 2020 === Red Dragon Returns to Earth
Result 2: Friday, 22 July 2022 === Exomars return sample returns to Earth.
Result 3: Monday, 9 September 2024
Result 4: Thursday, 29 October 2026
Result 5: Sunday, 17 December 2028
Result 6: Wednesday, 5 February 2031
Result 7: Saturday, 26 March 2033
Result 8: Tuesday, 15 May 2035
Result 9: Friday, 3 July 2037
Result 10: Monday, 22 August 2039
Result 11: Thursday, 10 October 2041
Result 12: Sunday, 29 November 2043
Result 13: Wednesday, 17 January 2046
Result 14: Saturday, 7 March 2048
Result 15: Tuesday, 26 April 2050
Result 16: Friday, 14 June 2052

If Musk wishes to re-use the same Red Dragon capsule, he has three weeks to repair it and relaunch it. Achieving this, and sending a dog in stasis, and returning it, on the same ship, basically prepares the way for a piloted landing next synodic period.



 




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