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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
On May 31, 6:06*am, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article , says... The radiation measurement experiments aboard Curiosity during its trip to mars yielded its first results. In a press conference, NASA stated: quote The findings, which are published in the May 31 edition of the journal Science, indicate radiation exposure for human explorers could exceed NASA's career limit for astronauts if current propulsion systems are used. end quote This doesn't surprise me, we have been arguing this for several years in this group. Now it is established beyond reasonable doubt. jacob Note the word *could* in the statement. *Also note that the current limits are intended to only increase the cancer risk of an astronaut by a mere 3%. *It may very well be that NASA can find volunteers willing to accept a higher risk than that in order to fly a mission to Mars. *Heck, I'd bet you'd find volunteers even if the increased risk of cancer was 30% or higher. Note the risk that Apollo astronauts took. *A solar flare event was a real risk, and the Apollo CSM/LEM combination offered little in the way of a "radiation shield". *Not to mention the risk inherent in the missions themselves (e.g. Apollo 1 and Apollo 13). And finally, NASA has a long history of writing rules which are subsequently re-written. Note also that NASA gets to write wavers to its own rules (the shuttle program was quite famous for this), even if they don't re-write the rules. Jeff -- "the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer Any extended space travels to/from Mars is simply wide open to receiving direct CME hits or any number of local and cosmic events giving off hard X-rays and gamma. The odds of surviving as relatively unscathed is unlikely, and complications added to many other physiological considerations of zero gravity, is why the one-way ticket to Mars is by far offering the best solution for those willing to sacrifice a few years off their otherwise healthy and productive lives. BTW; a premature death from cancer(s) is one of the worse ways to go, unless you're drugged out of your mind. |
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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
Le 31/05/13 15:06, Jeff Findley a écrit :
In article , says... The radiation measurement experiments aboard Curiosity during its trip to mars yielded its first results. In a press conference, NASA stated: quote The findings, which are published in the May 31 edition of the journal Science, indicate radiation exposure for human explorers could exceed NASA's career limit for astronauts if current propulsion systems are used. end quote This doesn't surprise me, we have been arguing this for several years in this group. Now it is established beyond reasonable doubt. jacob Note the word *could* in the statement. Yes, that means that the trip hasn't happened. Also note that the current limits are intended to only increase the cancer risk of an astronaut by a mere 3%. It may very well be that NASA can find volunteers willing to accept a higher risk than that in order to fly a mission to Mars. Heck, I'd bet you'd find volunteers even if the increased risk of cancer was 30% or higher. The dose is 1.8 mS/day. For a 3 years exposure (around 1000 days) you have 1.8 Sievert total dose. 1 Sievert increases your chance of getting cancer by 5%, 1.8 sievert is 9% increase in the cancer probability. Now, of those 100 days, around 600-700 will be spent in Mars, where a thin atmosphere will reduce the risk a bit, but they will be confronted to radioactive soil/rocks in the surface whose radiation level is unknown (it is being measured by the experiment right now in mars) Note the risk that Apollo astronauts took. A solar flare event was a real risk, and the Apollo CSM/LEM combination offered little in the way of a "radiation shield". Not to mention the risk inherent in the missions themselves (e.g. Apollo 1 and Apollo 13). Moon missions are very short (1-2 weeks) so the total dose is 1.8 mS *14 days = 25.2 mS, around 1/40 of 5 percent increase, i.e. 0.125% increase in the cancer probability, well below the 3% of NASA. And finally, NASA has a long history of writing rules which are subsequently re-written. Note also that NASA gets to write wavers to its own rules (the shuttle program was quite famous for this), even if they don't re-write the rules. Well, if you want to have suicide missions, where the guys get to go to Mars and die later I do not support that, even if they sign a disclaimer. Jeff |
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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
In article , says...
Le 31/05/13 15:06, Jeff Findley a écrit : In article , says... The radiation measurement experiments aboard Curiosity during its trip to mars yielded its first results. In a press conference, NASA stated: quote The findings, which are published in the May 31 edition of the journal Science, indicate radiation exposure for human explorers could exceed NASA's career limit for astronauts if current propulsion systems are used. end quote This doesn't surprise me, we have been arguing this for several years in this group. Now it is established beyond reasonable doubt. jacob Note the word *could* in the statement. Yes, that means that the trip hasn't happened. No, it means what it says, that if a manned Mars mission happens, it "could exceed NASA's career limit for astronauts". Also note that the current limits are intended to only increase the cancer risk of an astronaut by a mere 3%. It may very well be that NASA can find volunteers willing to accept a higher risk than that in order to fly a mission to Mars. Heck, I'd bet you'd find volunteers even if the increased risk of cancer was 30% or higher. The dose is 1.8 mS/day. For a 3 years exposure (around 1000 days) you have 1.8 Sievert total dose. 1 Sievert increases your chance of getting cancer by 5%, 1.8 sievert is 9% increase in the cancer probability. Now, of those 100 days, around 600-700 will be spent in Mars, where a thin atmosphere will reduce the risk a bit, but they will be confronted to radioactive soil/rocks in the surface whose radiation level is unknown (it is being measured by the experiment right now in mars) The atmosphere may be thin, but the *planet* is not. When on Mars, you have an entire planet shielding you from roughly 1/2 of the cosmic background radidation. Note the risk that Apollo astronauts took. A solar flare event was a real risk, and the Apollo CSM/LEM combination offered little in the way of a "radiation shield". Not to mention the risk inherent in the missions themselves (e.g. Apollo 1 and Apollo 13). Moon missions are very short (1-2 weeks) so the total dose is 1.8 mS *14 days = 25.2 mS, around 1/40 of 5 percent increase, i.e. 0.125% increase in the cancer probability, well below the 3% of NASA. And finally, NASA has a long history of writing rules which are subsequently re-written. Note also that NASA gets to write wavers to its own rules (the shuttle program was quite famous for this), even if they don't re-write the rules. Well, if you want to have suicide missions, where the guys get to go to Mars and die later I do not support that, even if they sign a disclaimer. So much for freedom for an individual too choose his own fate. I'd not be against such a mission. How many people died exploring locations on earth, like Antartica? Have we become so risk averse that we can't explore without fear others will be sad if they die on an expedition? Really? Jeff -- "the perennial claim that hypersonic airbreathing propulsion would magically make space launch cheaper is nonsense -- LOX is much cheaper than advanced airbreathing engines, and so are the tanks to put it in and the extra thrust to carry it." - Henry Spencer |
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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
Le 31/05/13 22:54, Jeff Findley a écrit :
jacob navia Well, if you want to have suicide missions, where the guys get to go to Mars and die later I do not support that, even if they sign a disclaimer. So much for freedom for an individual too choose his own fate. There is nothing to choose. We will all die anyway, wherever we want it or not. Suicide lets you have the illusion that you gain something by accelerating the end. If somebody wants to die by going to Mars it is OK with me. But why should he be encouraged by other people that will let him explore and die, giving him the means to accomplish that? There is NOTHING a human can do in Mars (or in the moon) that can't be done by another human sitting in his office and commanding a robot. The point of manned expeditions is to prepare the environment for mankind as a whole to go in space, i.e. to prepare an environment where anyone can go to space in the same way like today we go into any place on earth. The problem with trying to compete with teleguided robots is that you can't. You (and Mr McCall) are waging a lost war against "toasters" where you will always loose: a "toaster" of course is not intelligent but it can become very intelligent if it is teleguided by another human. The Opportunity team is proving that every day since 9 years: exploring Mars TODAY with NO risks at all for anyone. Manned exploration is to be understood as preparing the way to go out of this planet into other worlds where we will organize human colonies and human rated ENVIRONMENTS! There is just NO POINT of a suicide mission. What for? Just for the fun of dying? Nobody will follow the suicidal space farer of course. I'd not be against such a mission. Yes, I know. You are saying this since ages. But FOR WHAT? WHAT IS THE POINT of such a suicidal mission? To explore Mars? We can do that by remote control in a MUCH more efficient way. Our computers are improving, artificial intelligence software to give high level commands (go there) and the robot figuring out how to go there itself in Mars are already a reality, NASA is using them with the 2 robots exploring Mars TODAY. And they can do (as Curiosity has proved) quite sophisticated chemical analysis IN SITU, together with boring the soil, traveling around, taking photographs, analyzing, recording, measuring the mars environment (wind speed, temperature whatever) in a way humans could never do since they can't stay 24/24 7/7 365 days per year doing science, tourism, even astronomy as a machine can do! How many people died exploring locations on earth, like Antartica? But in those times there weren't any ROBOTS. You just COULD NOT send a robot to Antarctica and see whats going on. So *they had no other choice* but to risk their lives. But what you still do not understand is that today the situation has CHANGED and that we DO have robots! And it would be much better if you (and many people that want the manned exploration of space to continue) to argue about the REAL value of manned exploration: as a way of preparing the environment for all the rest of the human race to go into space! THAT IS A WORTHY GOAL. And that can't be done by robots! And it is a risky road mind you. Many people have left their lives after Gagarin started this. There is NO POINT in taking risks that do not bring anything new just for the fun of it! What would the astronaut bring back to us (if he ever makes it back)? Some photos? Some measurements? A rock as souvenir from Mars? WHAT? What that can't be done much cheaper by a "toaster" ??? NOTHING. He would bring us nothing at all. Have we become so risk averse that we can't explore without fear others will be sad if they die on an expedition? We can explore and there are risks to be taken. But there is NO POINT in suicidal missions. Space is risky enough. There is no point in sending humans to die for nothing. Only when there is a worthy GOAL risks are justified. But dying for taking photos of Mars? Why not just look at the photos of Opportunity today? You need to understand that space exploration will NOT be as we imagined when we read the Buck Rogers comics. Space needs a new kind of human and a new kind of machine. Space exploration will be done by CYBORGS. Just take a cyborg like Opportunity in Mars. The machine is guided by its designers, but gives to its designers capabilities they do NOT have, like resisting all this radiation filled trip, the freezing temperatures and the lack of oxygen and food without a hitch, and starting to do measurements and environment sensing for years! That does NOT mean that we will stay on earth FOREVER of course. We will build space colonies in this century, and humans will start to leave their planet and explore the solar system. But that is a long development that will take decades. That is why I propose "smaller" missions to the moon, not Mars. Because the objective of those missions is not to explore the moon but to settle humans in the moon you see? Really? Really. Serious space exploration needs a new mind-set Mr Findley. No more Buck Rogers. But facts. The fact is, we want (as a species) to explore, to know what is in there because we are humans. This species has always tried to look what is beyond the horizon and we will go on. We will build a symbiosis with machines, that will enhance our body (as they always have done by the way) The artic explorers weren't naked. They had means of protecting themselves from cold, they had ways to orient themselves in the white desert, the trip was risky but doable. Some had bad luck, some succeeded, but it is obvious that they weren't suicidal. The objective now, in this new trip we started a few decades ago, is to prepare many people, to go to space and put human outposts in each planet of the system. We need the technology to build big ships, that rotate, are shielded from radiation, and guarantee the crew the maximal survival chances. Nobody CARES about suicidal missions. They wouldn't bring the goal of having an outpost in each planet of the system any nearer. We have now only ONE: The ISS. But it is a start. A Moon outpost will follow, then a Mars outpost. They are all feasible with current technology albeit it is much more effort than a capsule a few meters long. It must be hundreds of meters, shielded environments, with a small ecological system to allow very long trips. Heavy ships go slowly since our propulsion technology is at its start. But we have done that already. The exploration of the Pacific (Tahiti, Easter island, etc) show us that a small group of people can survive for very long trips in a few dozens of meters. And now it is much easier in a sense, since we KNOW where we are going, and do NOT have to support the pressure of not knowing (imagine) if we will hit an island!!!!! Those were really risks! And in that time it was the only option. NOW it is no longer necessary, but other, new risks are surely in store for us. Let's go then. But remember that the goal is to allow humans to live, work, travel and see for themselves the great spaces beyond the horizon. Not to just try to replace the "toasters". Jeff Jacob |
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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
... Note the word *could* in the statement. Also note that the current limits are intended to only increase the cancer risk of an astronaut by a mere 3%. It may very well be that NASA can find volunteers willing to accept a higher risk than that in order to fly a mission to Mars. Heck, I'd bet you'd find volunteers even if the increased risk of cancer was 30% or higher. Note to, the INCREASE is 3%. It's not that 3% of the astronauts are guaranteed to get cancer. Heck, at this rate, the most dangerous part will be lift-off and re-entry based on historical data. And look at the number of volunteers who worked at Chernobyl and Fukashima. (granted, the need was far more urgent). But folks have stepped up to risks for many reasons. Hell, look at the number of deaths on Mount Everest and the only reason people climb it is recreational. Note the risk that Apollo astronauts took. A solar flare event was a real risk, and the Apollo CSM/LEM combination offered little in the way of a "radiation shield". Not to mention the risk inherent in the missions themselves (e.g. Apollo 1 and Apollo 13). As dramatized in the "Apollo 18" mission of Michener's "Space". And finally, NASA has a long history of writing rules which are subsequently re-written. Note also that NASA gets to write wavers to its own rules (the shuttle program was quite famous for this), even if they don't re-write the rules. Ayup. And as I keep saying. It's a matter of mass. Through enough water/ice/etc at the issue and it really isn't much of an issue. It's a cost issue, not really an engineering issue. Look, we're looking to fly the equivalent of the Spirit of St. Louis here, NOT A United 747 flight. To twist Gene Krantz's famous quote: Risk IS an option. Jeff -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net |
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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
"jacob navia" wrote in message ...
Le 31/05/13 15:06, Jeff Findley a écrit : Now, of those 100 days, around 600-700 will be spent in Mars, where a thin atmosphere will reduce the risk a bit, but they will be confronted to radioactive soil/rocks in the surface whose radiation level is unknown (it is being measured by the experiment right now in mars) But, the planet itself reduces the risk from the very thing you're most worried about cosmic rays. And rocks don't simply get "radioactive" by exposure. Note the risk that Apollo astronauts took. A solar flare event was a real risk, and the Apollo CSM/LEM combination offered little in the way of a "radiation shield". Not to mention the risk inherent in the missions themselves (e.g. Apollo 1 and Apollo 13). Moon missions are very short (1-2 weeks) so the total dose is 1.8 mS *14 days = 25.2 mS, around 1/40 of 5 percent increase, i.e. 0.125% increase in the cancer probability, well below the 3% of NASA. That's NOT what he was discussing. He was discussing the very real risk of a solar flare which would have killed the crew in minutes or hours. Note some of the Apollo missions were during the solar maximum. And finally, NASA has a long history of writing rules which are subsequently re-written. Note also that NASA gets to write wavers to its own rules (the shuttle program was quite famous for this), even if they don't re-write the rules. Well, if you want to have suicide missions, where the guys get to go to Mars and die later I do not support that, even if they sign a disclaimer. That's fine. You don't have to support it. But the folks paying the bills and flying most likely will. Jeff -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net |
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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
"jacob navia" wrote in message ...
Le 31/05/13 22:54, Jeff Findley a écrit : jacob navia Well, if you want to have suicide missions, where the guys get to go to Mars and die later I do not support that, even if they sign a disclaimer. So much for freedom for an individual too choose his own fate. There is nothing to choose. We will all die anyway, wherever we want it or not. Suicide lets you have the illusion that you gain something by accelerating the end. If somebody wants to die by going to Mars it is OK with me. But why should he be encouraged by other people that will let him explore and die, giving him the means to accomplish that? There is NOTHING a human can do in Mars (or in the moon) that can't be done by another human sitting in his office and commanding a robot. Except as has been shown, they can do it 100s of times faster. The Mark I eyeball and the Mark I brain are very good at discrimination of details that even with modern cameras and screens. The point of manned expeditions is to prepare the environment for mankind as a whole to go in space, i.e. to prepare an environment where anyone can go to space in the same way like today we go into any place on earth. That's A point. But we still go to Antarctica and no one is talking about colonizing the south pole. The problem with trying to compete with teleguided robots is that you can't. You (and Mr McCall) are waging a lost war against "toasters" where you will always loose: a "toaster" of course is not intelligent but it can become very intelligent if it is teleguided by another human. The Opportunity team is proving that every day since 9 years: exploring Mars TODAY with NO risks at all for anyone. So in 9 years they've done what 2 astronauts did in 3 days. And those 2 astronauts brought a lot of handpicked samples back to Earth. Many are still being analyzed. Manned exploration is to be understood as preparing the way to go out of this planet into other worlds where we will organize human colonies and human rated ENVIRONMENTS! There is just NO POINT of a suicide mission. Tell that to everyone who attempts Mt. Everest. What for? Many reasons, including "Because it's there." Just for the fun of dying? Nobody will follow the suicidal space farer of course. I'd not be against such a mission. Yes, I know. You are saying this since ages. But FOR WHAT? WHAT IS THE POINT of such a suicidal mission? To explore Mars? We can do that by remote control in a MUCH more efficient way. Our computers are improving, artificial intelligence software to give high level commands (go there) and the robot figuring out how to go there itself in Mars are already a reality, NASA is using them with the 2 robots exploring Mars TODAY. And they can do (as Curiosity has proved) quite sophisticated chemical analysis IN SITU, together with boring the soil, traveling around, taking photographs, analyzing, recording, measuring the mars environment (wind speed, temperature whatever) in a way humans could never do since they can't stay 24/24 7/7 365 days per year doing science, tourism, even astronomy as a machine can do! You seem to think it's either/or. You can certainly put a devices to measure wind speed/temp, etc on your habitat. How many people died exploring locations on earth, like Antartica? But in those times there weren't any ROBOTS. You just COULD NOT send a robot to Antarctica and see whats going on. "in those times". Those times are STILL occurring. So *they had no other choice* but to risk their lives. But what you still do not understand is that today the situation has CHANGED and that we DO have robots! And it would be much better if you (and many people that want the manned exploration of space to continue) to argue about the REAL value of manned exploration: as a way of preparing the environment for all the rest of the human race to go into space! THAT IS A WORTHY GOAL. And that can't be done by robots! And it is a risky road mind you. Many people have left their lives after Gagarin started this. There is NO POINT in taking risks that do not bring anything new just for the fun of it! Really? Tell that to the folks who sail around the world. Or the sailor who died recently in an America's cup race. What would the astronaut bring back to us (if he ever makes it back)? Some photos? Some measurements? A rock as souvenir from Mars? WHAT? What that can't be done much cheaper by a "toaster" ??? NOTHING. He would bring us nothing at all. Have we become so risk averse that we can't explore without fear others will be sad if they die on an expedition? We can explore and there are risks to be taken. But there is NO POINT in suicidal missions. Space is risky enough. There is no point in sending humans to die for nothing. Only when there is a worthy GOAL risks are justified. But dying for taking photos of Mars? Obviously you think science is limited to taking some pictures and grabbing some random rocks. Watch the From the Earth to the Moon episode on Apollo 15 where it makes a good point of knowing WHICH rocks to grab are important. And they did their job. Genesis Rock. Again, it's not either/or. Yes, feet on the ground will take advantage of robots and the like. Why not just look at the photos of Opportunity today? You need to understand that space exploration will NOT be as we imagined when we read the Buck Rogers comics. Space needs a new kind of human and a new kind of machine. Space exploration will be done by CYBORGS. Just take a cyborg like Opportunity in Mars. The machine is guided by its designers, but gives to its designers capabilities they do NOT have, like resisting all this radiation filled trip, the freezing temperatures and the lack of oxygen and food without a hitch, and starting to do measurements and environment sensing for years! That does NOT mean that we will stay on earth FOREVER of course. We will build space colonies in this century, and humans will start to leave their planet and explore the solar system. But that is a long development that will take decades. That is why I propose "smaller" missions to the moon, not Mars. Because the objective of those missions is not to explore the moon but to settle humans in the moon you see? Really? Really. Serious space exploration needs a new mind-set Mr Findley. No more Buck Rogers. But facts. The fact is, we want (as a species) to explore, to know what is in there because we are humans. This species has always tried to look what is beyond the horizon and we will go on. We will build a symbiosis with machines, that will enhance our body (as they always have done by the way) The artic explorers weren't naked. They had means of protecting themselves from cold, they had ways to orient themselves in the white desert, the trip was risky but doable. Some had bad luck, some succeeded, but it is obvious that they weren't suicidal. The objective now, in this new trip we started a few decades ago, is to prepare many people, to go to space and put human outposts in each planet of the system. We need the technology to build big ships, that rotate, are shielded from radiation, and guarantee the crew the maximal survival chances. Nobody CARES about suicidal missions. They wouldn't bring the goal of having an outpost in each planet of the system any nearer. We have now only ONE: The ISS. But it is a start. A Moon outpost will follow, then a Mars outpost. Actually an orbiting hotel is probably next. That's my guess. They are all feasible with current technology albeit it is much more effort than a capsule a few meters long. It must be hundreds of meters, shielded environments, with a small ecological system to allow very long trips. Heavy ships go slowly since our propulsion technology is at its start. But we have done that already. The exploration of the Pacific (Tahiti, Easter island, etc) show us that a small group of people can survive for very long trips in a few dozens of meters. And now it is much easier in a sense, since we KNOW where we are going, and do NOT have to support the pressure of not knowing (imagine) if we will hit an island!!!!! Those were really risks! And in that time it was the only option. NOW it is no longer necessary, but other, new risks are surely in store for us. Let's go then. But remember that the goal is to allow humans to live, work, travel and see for themselves the great spaces beyond the horizon. Not to just try to replace the "toasters". Jeff Jacob -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net |
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Radiation hazards in a trip to Mars
"Jeff Findley" wrote in message
... No doubt. This is data coming from an unmanned probe being reported by the team tasked with collecting the data from an unmanned probe. They might very well have an axe to grind here. Besides, we can never collect too much data from too many unmanned probes, can we? BTW, for the fun of it, I decided to find some quotes from Steven Squyres: http://www.space.com/6972-steve-squy...mans-mars.html So, even the robotics guys think we should go. -- Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/ CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net |
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