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Sobering GIF Shows Earth’s Climate Spiraling Toward The Brink
The Boiling Pot
http://www.postcarbon.org/the-boiling-pot/ On the surface, things appear normal. The status quo of life in America circa 2016 isn’t to everyone’s liking, but at least the system is still working after a fashion. The price of oil is going up a bit: that means the cost of driving is also creeping higher, but steeper prices provide a little welcome relief for an oil industry otherwise teetering on the brink of financial ruin. There are tiresomely long lines at airports, but that means people have the wherewithal to pay for plane tickets. Most people are disgusted with the presumptive U.S. presidential candidates, but at least the machine of electoral politics is still marginally functioning. The stock market is up, unemployment is down. We’re muddling through. Or are we? Beneath the lid, a pot of trends is coming to a boil. If Carl Jung was right about the existence of a collective unconscious, it must be seething with nightmares right about now. So far, 2016 is the hottest year in history. And not by just a smidgen: every single month so far has set a record. This handy little animation has been making the rounds of environmental websites in the last couple of weeks; it shows a climate system that is shooting off the rails. -- sci.physics is an unmoderated newsgroup dedicated to the discussion of physics, news from the physics community, and physics-related social issues. |
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Sobering GIF Shows Earth’s Climate Spiraling Toward The Brink
On Wednesday, June 1, 2016 at 2:05:55 AM UTC+1, Sam Wormley wrote:
So far, 2016 is the hottest year in history. And not by just a smidgen: every single month so far has set a record. This handy little animation has been making the rounds of environmental websites in the last couple of weeks; it shows a climate system that is shooting off the rails. There is only one thing worse than trying to fit astronomical methods into experimental sciences and that is scaling up experimental sciences into these monstrosities like 'climate change'. How an entire society managed to believe that planetary climate amounts to extended weather patterns would probably be the subject of many books and documentaries in the future but so far I haven't seen anyone who can actually discuss the matter at a level in which such a preposterous notion became such a mainstream focus in politics,education and the wider society. How many times have I offered to go on a historical journey with you Sam to revisit the attempt to make astronomical insights fit into Newton's worldview based on experimental sciences which amounts to reducing astronomy to the classroom and academia instead of making the connection between planetary dynamics and terrestrial sciences. Of course this is where you get the notion that a greenhouse scales up to a planet and climate. Nations and societies who are driven by fear and doom always act the same way, the last time this happened was when the National Socialists appealed to the 'laws of nature' as an extension of the laws of physics/motion/gravity to generate a catastrophe for a continent - " A lopsided education has helped to encourage that illusion. Man must realize that a fundamental law of necessity reigns throughout the whole realm of Nature and that his existence is subject to the law of eternal struggle and strife. He will then feel that there cannot be a separate law for mankind in a world in which planets and suns follow their orbits, where moons and planets trace their destined paths, where the strong are always the masters of the weak and where those subject to such laws must obey them or be destroyed." Hitler The idea that "humanity must realize" is a long way from humanity comes to understand principles of astronomy and terrestrial sciences as a means to inspire rather than as a vehicle of convictions. |
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Sobering GIF Shows Earth’s Climate Spiraling Toward The Brink
On Tuesday, May 31, 2016 at 7:05:55 PM UTC-6, Sam Wormley wrote:
The Boiling Pot http://www.postcarbon.org/the-boiling-pot/ On the surface, things appear normal. The status quo of life in America circa 2016 isn’t to everyone’s liking, but at least the system is still working after a fashion. The price of oil is going up a bit: that means the cost of driving is also creeping higher, but steeper prices provide a little welcome relief for an oil industry otherwise teetering on the brink of financial ruin. There are tiresomely long lines at airports, but that means people have the wherewithal to pay for plane tickets. Most people are disgusted with the presumptive U.S. presidential candidates, but at least the machine of electoral politics is still marginally functioning. The stock market is up, unemployment is down. We’re muddling through. Or are we? Beneath the lid, a pot of trends is coming to a boil. If Carl Jung was right about the existence of a collective unconscious, it must be seething with nightmares right about now. So far, 2016 is the hottest year in history. And not by just a smidgen: every single month so far has set a record. This handy little animation has been making the rounds of environmental websites in the last couple of weeks; it shows a climate system that is shooting off the rails. This is little more than scare hype. The only thing that has meaning is the MEAN yearly temperatures. Monthly temperatures are virtually irrelevant. If you look at NASA's data: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.txt from 2000 to 2015, the average mean temperature was 0.79 degrees C above the nominal 1951-1980 base temperature with a sigma of 0.11 degree. The highest deviation is in 2015 with a value of 0.99, about two sigma above the mean. Is this REALLY enough to proclaim that the sky is falling? NASA claims that the uncertainty in the mean values is about 0.1 degree, which means that the 0.99 value could be 0.89 or 1.09, and the uncertainty of the average mean could range from 0.69 to 0.89, which means that the data could fit a FLAT line just as well! The last four data points (2012 to 2015) certainly LOOK disturbing, but true global warming is a long-term effect. Conclusion: the recent increase is most unlikely to continue. Note the values from 1887 to 1889 which increased from -0.33 to -0.11, a similar increase observed over the recent period under discussion. After the -0.11, the mean dropped back to a value even lower than the 1887 value. Gary |
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