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No Zuma Zombie



 
 
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  #1  
Old January 10th 18, 04:34 PM posted to sci.space.policy
David Spain
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Posts: 2,484
Default No Zuma Zombie

Regarding the success or failure of the Zuma launch...

The latest rumors seem to indicated that although the Falcon 9 launch
was succesful, the newly designed Northrup/Grumman payload adapter
failed. Preventing the satellite from separating from the F9 2nd stage
and hence Zuma went down with it when the F9 2nd stage was de-orbited as
part of the normal procedure so as to not clutter up LEO with spent stages.

No confirmation from either SpaceX or Northrup/Grumman, nor will there
be. But sparing some observation from the amateur sat watch network,
more likely than not....

https://qz.com/1175393/zuma-satellit...ret-us-launch/

Dave
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  #2  
Old January 12th 18, 07:04 PM posted to sci.space.policy
[email protected]
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Posts: 612
Default No Zuma Zombie

Maybe Zuma is gone, maybe it isn't:

"Rumors are swirling about the fate of a top-secret spacecraft, known as Zuma,
which Northrop Grumman supposedly built for an unknown U.S. government agency and
launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon-9 rocket on Jan. 7, 2018. There are a number of
theories about what might have happened already circulating, but a fairly obvious
one seems glaringly absent: that the satellite didn't crash at all and that it’s
working as planned."

See:

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...as-intended-to
  #3  
Old January 13th 18, 02:16 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Default No Zuma Zombie

In article ,
says...

Maybe Zuma is gone, maybe it isn't:

"Rumors are swirling about the fate of a top-secret spacecraft, known as Zuma,
which Northrop Grumman supposedly built for an unknown U.S. government agency and
launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon-9 rocket on Jan. 7, 2018. There are a number of
theories about what might have happened already circulating, but a fairly obvious
one seems glaringly absent: that the satellite didn't crash at all and that it?s
working as planned."

See:

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...as-intended-to

Hard to say exactly, but from the people that have talked a bit about it
(Congressional staffers leaking that the mission failed to the press),
I'd say it failed. It's quite unlikely that whoever owns this thing in
the US Government would lie to Congress and it's unlikely that
Congressional staffers would leak a lie.

But since this is a Secret Squirrel program, my guess is that we won't
know the complete story for maybe 20-40 years or so.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #4  
Old January 13th 18, 03:32 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Alain Fournier[_3_]
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Posts: 307
Default No Zuma Zombie

On Jan/13/2018 at 9:16 AM, Jeff Findley wrote :
In article ,
says...

Maybe Zuma is gone, maybe it isn't:

"Rumors are swirling about the fate of a top-secret spacecraft, known as Zuma,
which Northrop Grumman supposedly built for an unknown U.S. government agency and
launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon-9 rocket on Jan. 7, 2018. There are a number of
theories about what might have happened already circulating, but a fairly obvious
one seems glaringly absent: that the satellite didn't crash at all and that it?s
working as planned."

See:

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone...as-intended-to

Hard to say exactly, but from the people that have talked a bit about it
(Congressional staffers leaking that the mission failed to the press),
I'd say it failed. It's quite unlikely that whoever owns this thing in
the US Government would lie to Congress and it's unlikely that
Congressional staffers would leak a lie.


They wouldn't lie to congress, but they would give incomplete and
misleading information. Someone who doesn't know what happened to
the mission can tell a few congressmen that he doesn't know what
happened and can't establish contact with the spacecraft. It can
also be a little more removed. People working at the right agency
making sure that they are overheard by someone who is going to
talk to people at congress.

Disseminating false information without breaking the law is a skill
that is well developed in some circles.


Alain Fournier
  #5  
Old January 13th 18, 09:45 PM posted to sci.space.policy
David Spain
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Posts: 2,484
Default No Zuma Zombie

As I mentioned over on the A-Rocket mailing list. If the amateur
satellite tracking community finds it then I'd say it was a success at
least in the sense that it achieved orbit.

Rumors based on Congressional leakage is that it did not. If no
sightings are found by the tracking community I'd say that pretty well
sums it up as a failure.

If the rumored price tag for Zuma is correct, I'd say likely two things:
1) It was a fairly big payload. 2) Too expenive to be a cover for
something else.

Also based on SpaceX's reaction, I'd say also not likely a failure due
to anything SpaceX was responsbile for. Otherwise we'd see launch
delays. So far it appears to be full speed ahead.

Dave
  #6  
Old January 13th 18, 10:15 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Alain Fournier[_3_]
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Posts: 307
Default No Zuma Zombie

On Jan/13/2018 at 4:45 PM, David Spain wrote :
As I mentioned over on the A-Rocket mailing list. If the amateur
satellite tracking community finds it then I'd say it was a success at
least in the sense that it achieved orbit.

Rumors based on Congressional leakage is that it did not. If no
sightings are found by the tracking community I'd say that pretty well
sums it up as a failure.


Stealth technology does exist. If it's black, small and has a very small
radar signature, and if you make a small orbit change with a cold gas
thruster, it is very hard to spot it.


Alain Fournier
  #7  
Old January 14th 18, 02:21 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 1,568
Default No Zuma Zombie

In article , says...

As I mentioned over on the A-Rocket mailing list. If the amateur
satellite tracking community finds it then I'd say it was a success at
least in the sense that it achieved orbit.

Rumors based on Congressional leakage is that it did not. If no
sightings are found by the tracking community I'd say that pretty well
sums it up as a failure.

If the rumored price tag for Zuma is correct, I'd say likely two things:
1) It was a fairly big payload. 2) Too expenive to be a cover for
something else.


1. I agree with the assertion that it is likely "fairly big". But,
given the fairly high orbital inclination (50 some degrees) of the
launch and the fact that the first stage returned for a landing at Cape
Canaveral, that places a clear upper limit on the mass. This would be
nowhere near the Falcon 9 fully expendable payload to a 28 something
degree orbit in LEO, which would be the maximum. So, emphasis on
"fairly" when saying "fairly big".

2. I agree with.

Also based on SpaceX's reaction, I'd say also not likely a failure due
to anything SpaceX was responsbile for. Otherwise we'd see launch
delays. So far it appears to be full speed ahead.


Speculation is that it is likely a failed payload adapter, which was not
provided by SpaceX. I don't believe that there have been any failures
of the "standard" SpaceX payload adapter.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #8  
Old January 14th 18, 02:28 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Jeff Findley[_6_]
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Posts: 1,568
Default No Zuma Zombie

In article , says...

On Jan/13/2018 at 4:45 PM, David Spain wrote :
As I mentioned over on the A-Rocket mailing list. If the amateur
satellite tracking community finds it then I'd say it was a success at
least in the sense that it achieved orbit.

Rumors based on Congressional leakage is that it did not. If no
sightings are found by the tracking community I'd say that pretty well
sums it up as a failure.


Stealth technology does exist.


You simply can't completely hide the thermal signature of a satellite.
If it's "doing something useful" then it's producing and using energy
which means it's radiating heat (you can't escape the laws of
thermodynamics). You could theoretically do things like limit thermal
radiation emissions towards earth, but that would mean it is radiating
heat away from earth. So, it would still be quite visible from the
vantage point of, say, a GEO orbit. So, it would likely still be
visible to "our enemies". So what would the point be exactly?

If it's black, small and has a very small
radar signature, and if you make a small orbit change with a cold gas
thruster, it is very hard to spot it.


Hard, but not at all impossible. It will emit infrared radiation.
Also, with radar, we can currently track orbital debris down to about 4
inches (10 cm) in size. It's almost certain our enemies can do the
same.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.
  #9  
Old January 14th 18, 08:22 PM posted to sci.space.policy
Fred J. McCall[_3_]
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Posts: 9,622
Default No Zuma Zombie

JF Mezei wrote:

On 2018-01-13 09:16, Jeff Findley wrote:

Hard to say exactly, but from the people that have talked a bit about it
(Congressional staffers leaking that the mission failed to the press),
I'd say it failed. It's quite unlikely that whoever owns this thing in
the US Government would lie to Congress and it's unlikely that
Congressional staffers would leak a lie.


Is it likely the rocket lauched something else on top of Zuma, and that
something else was succesfully deployed and Zuma failed? (either on
purpose or by accident) ?


Unlikely in the extreme.


Assuming this had been a commercial launch of only 1 satellite, would
SpaceX still get paid for bringing the payload where its contract stated
it would bring it (and blame the payload folks for failiure to detach
from stage 2) ?


That depends. If the commercial satellite designed to the SpaceX
interface documents so that a standard payload adapter could be used,
then SpaceX is responsible. If, on the other hand, things were like
they were with Zuma, where L-M designed and built a specialized
payload adapter and that's where the failure was, then SpaceX did what
they were contracted to do and they get paid.


Also, in a military launch, would regular SpaceX staff man the control
room for both stage I and 2, or would stage 2 and satellite deployment
switch to some miliatry staff control room so SpaceX not involved in
actual secret deployments ?


SpaceX would control the mission.


While I am at it: would super secret milirary launch still have various
cameras on board to monitor success/failures (buit not brodcasted
publicly, of course) or would the confidential nature of it preclude
any video feeds from the rocket ?


Maybe yes, maybe no.


--
You have never lived until you have almost died.
Life has a special meaning that the protected
will never know.
  #10  
Old January 15th 18, 01:05 AM posted to sci.space.policy
Alain Fournier[_3_]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 307
Default No Zuma Zombie

On Jan/14/2018 at 9:28 AM, Jeff Findley wrote :
In article , says...

On Jan/13/2018 at 4:45 PM, David Spain wrote :
As I mentioned over on the A-Rocket mailing list. If the amateur
satellite tracking community finds it then I'd say it was a success at
least in the sense that it achieved orbit.

Rumors based on Congressional leakage is that it did not. If no
sightings are found by the tracking community I'd say that pretty well
sums it up as a failure.


Stealth technology does exist.


You simply can't completely hide the thermal signature of a satellite.
If it's "doing something useful" then it's producing and using energy
which means it's radiating heat (you can't escape the laws of
thermodynamics). You could theoretically do things like limit thermal
radiation emissions towards earth, but that would mean it is radiating
heat away from earth. So, it would still be quite visible from the
vantage point of, say, a GEO orbit. So, it would likely still be
visible to "our enemies". So what would the point be exactly?

If it's black, small and has a very small
radar signature, and if you make a small orbit change with a cold gas
thruster, it is very hard to spot it.


Hard, but not at all impossible. It will emit infrared radiation.
Also, with radar, we can currently track orbital debris down to about 4
inches (10 cm) in size. It's almost certain our enemies can do the
same.


Not all enemies. DAECH doesn't have satellites to observe heat radiated
away from Earth. In fact, most countries don't have that capability.
Even countries with GEO satellites, will usually have them for things
like telecommunications, not for detection of stealth satellites.

Yes, several countries could detect such a satellite if they worked
hard to do so. But few countries do work hard on that.

Of course, it is entirely possible that Zuma fell to the Indian ocean.


Alain Fournier
 




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