Soon to be less borscht at the ISS?

William Mook wrote:

On Friday, August 26, 2016 at 12:22:49 PM UTC+12, Fred J. McCall wrote:
William Mook wrote:

On Friday, August 26, 2016 at 2:52:17 AM UTC+12, Fred J. McCall wrote:
William Mook wrote:

On Thursday, August 25, 2016 at 1:43:08 AM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:

They're
responsible for it no matter what.


Until they sell it sure. That's what ownership means.


Even after they sell it. The United States government is responsible
for anything launched from US territory.

As the Government is responsible for everything operated by a commercial carrier. You're absolutely clueless, and confused. The government is responsible for everything that happens inside their territory in the way you're talking.

You sound like you've read some of the OST but you haven't read the licensing agreement you must abide by to be a commercial space operator. Owning a thing makes you liable in ways that not owning it frees from you even though the government administers it in all cases. Sheesh.


Which part of Article VII has left you confused this badly?

I'm not confused you are since you think it refers to the responsibilities of ownership rather than responsibility to regulate.


What is that sentence supposed to mean?

Mookie Maundering Munched


I agree with you that SpaceX will build their own station from scratch for less than the operating costs of NASA one day. A figure about 1/20th the cost NASA spent.

I also believe that if SpaceX owned the station they could get maintenance and operating costs down to the $100 million level, again 1/20th the cost NASA spends - largely by integrating the launch and supply operations from Texas using fully reusable boosters burning $0.15 per kg propellants.


You no doubt also believe in unicorns and magic pixie dust.

Nonsense. I'm agreeing with you that SpaceX could likely build a space station for 1/20th the price NASA did. Clearly SpaceX could operate a station at 1/20th the cost too.

What makes you think SpaceX couldn't review the cost centres of the ISS today and similarly reduce costs there as well? Plainly given the reductions in cost their process and product improvements in space launch have demonstrated, SpaceX could cut operating costs on the ISS too and if they decide to buy the ISS, they WILL. You are just being disagreeable to be disagreeable as you said.


Let me see if I can explain it to you by analogy, since you apparently
aren't bright enough to follow the argument directly. When Musk
wanted a space launcher, did he decide it would be a great idea to go
out and buy a bunch of Atlas IV boosters and 'rework' them? No, of
course not. He looked at what everyone else was doing wrong and then
designed his own rocket from scratch to support doing it different.

Same with a space station. If Musk wanted one (and there's no
evidence that he does), he wouldn't buy an old one and then try to fix
it. He'd design one specifically for the purposes he wanted it for
from scratch.


It would be an important move for them politically, and operationally to acquire the ISS and make it pay..


Hogwash.

Look at their backlog of launch bookings over time, and their launch site acquisition timing. Acquiring these landmark assets,


Mookie comparison of apples to orangutans snipped




The most important detail is that there are 25,000 people worth over $486 million you could tap into to spend time on board the space station who would be willing to pay top dollar to go there at 1200 people per year and $40 million a pop, that's $48 billion per year - more than NASA begs from Congress each year. The profit from this is enough to fund development of Mars.


Let's do the math there.


You fantasize 1200 'tourists' a year to ISS.
In reality there probably aren't that many people TOTAL willing to pay
$40 million, but let's pretend.

Let's do something you are wont to do - let's look at the numbers;


And, as usual, your numbers spin off into outright fantasy in fairly
short order.


http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/...uals-uhnwi.asp

To quote:

As of 2015, the UHNWI population has 172,850 people among its ranks, a number 61% higher than 10 years earlier, and 1,844 of these individuals have over $1 billion, an 82% increase over the number of billionaires in the previous decade. Together, these individuals hold $20.8 trillion. Although they constitute only 0.003% of the world’s population, they hold 13% of the world's total wealth.

The numbers;

Knowing this is the top 0.003% we can use the distribution of income over everyone to estimate the numbers between these two figures, using our knowledge of the Gauss curve. Its easy to see that 25,000 people have a net worth in excess of $489 million.

Market Penetration;

Now the handful of millionaires who have already taken the trouble to meet Russia's strict protocols, have spent far more than 8% of their wealth on these once in a life-time trips. More would spend less percentage if certain barriers to entry were taken away.


And now we spin off into the fantasy...


A 5% market penetration each year in any well defined population, for a period of 12 or 15 years (60% to 80% total penetration) - is easily achieved in any well concieved marketing campaign.

5% of 25,000 persons is 1,250 persons per year. Divide by 52 weeks in a year, with a one week residency on the station, that's 1248 persons per year. At $40 million per person - that's $49.92 billion per year. That's 2.7x NASA's budget and larger than ALL space budgets in the world today. We're asking people worth $489 million to spend 8% of their wealth in a well designed well crafted programme with equipment designed and promoted in ways that appeal to this target audience - and are expecting 5% of the target audience to buy in each year, over 12 to 15 year period.

These numbers are quite reasonable - and compelling.


These numbers are crack fantasies. They assume your target population
wants to take this trip. Most of them could care less.


Dragon V2 can carry a maximum of 7
people.

6 passengers and 1 crew in my commentary. Yes.

Let's assume you'd want at least one person on there who
wasn't a 'tourist', so that's six 'tourists' per launch.

Correct.

This leads
directly to 200 launches per year to get your 1200 'tourists' per year

Correct. You need four launches per week to sustain the $49.92 billion revenue stream.


Not possible. Note that this is four launches per week over and above
all the other launches. As you noted, SpaceX already has a big
backlog of launches, yet you think they can do an additional four
launcher PER WEEK (plus logistics launches to support all those
people)?


up there. That's more than one every other day.


Not gonna happen,
but again, let's pretend.

Let's see what Elon Musk, SpaceX founder, CEO, has to say;

http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/02/...k-interview-2/

He would like to see DAILY space launch - as a means to cut price.


Your cite says no such thing. Do you just assume you can throw a link
up there and nobody will look, or what? Musk is talking 'very
frequently' launching FOR MARS. By that (if you look at his other
statements), he means a couple of Mars launches PER YEAR (actually per
18 months), not one a day.



How long are these people staying? Surely more than a day or two,

A week as I mentioned.


I don't wade through all your whackadoo schemes, Mookie.


given the price tag.

Yes, they will spend a week.

So where do you put them?

You put twenty four guests on six BA-330 modules docked to the station. You have two spare BA-330 modules - one as a restaurant another as a gymnasium - as I mentioned.

Maximum occupancy of
ISS is about 9 people for any length of time.

Correct. This would remain largely unaffected and be the place for crew members. The cook staff would live in the kitchen module. The activity staff would live in the gym module. Pilots, station crew and researchers, live in the ISS historic section.

You can jam 13 in
there,

There's a total of 33
- 7 in the historical section - 4 pilots, 3 station crew (which include researchers)
24 in four B330 modules docked to the ISS.
1 professional chef - in one B330 module docked to the ISS configured as a 5 star restaurant
1 medical person - in one B330 module docked to the restaurant as an activity and medical centre.

The pilots and crew are hired as needed by the chef and doctor

http://www.airlinereporter.com/2014/...bitat-mock-up/


And why do you need the legacy station again? It just gets in the
way. I note your 'cook staff' is now one guy and you lost the
'activity staff' entirely.


but if that lasts for more than a couple weeks you're going to
start to have problems with life support, waste management, etc.

Each B330 module is equipped as the Shuttle was, with the ability to supply and be supplied power - and each has its own life support and solar power capacity and even navigational capacity independent of the station - capable of supporting eight people - however in these three configurations they are configured as three suites - each - 12 suites altogether - double occupancy - and the medical and restaurant sections support only one each with an office and medical suite in combination with a large activity room - and an office and kitchen and supply room - with a dining facility.


So why do you need the legacy station in the middle of all that,
again?


Present tourist stays are on the order of 1.5 to 2 weeks. If we
assume they are having two week stays, that says that at any given
time there are around 46 of them on ISS (plus, presumably, the working
crew).

Guests and their crew stay only one week and leave.

Given that number of people, you need around nine times as many
resupply flights to make up 'consumables'.

Consumables are launched with each tourist capsule. That way tourists pick their menu over the coming week.


Which brings you down to the NASA model of only having four passengers
(vice seven) so that there is room for pressurized cargo.

snip Mookie Maunduring - bored now

Save your nickels, Mookie, because nobody who actually has the money
to invest wants to put ISS in the middle of something like this.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...

William Mook wrote:


There's a total of 33
- 7 in the historical section - 4 pilots, 3 station crew (which include
researchers)
24 in four B330 modules docked to the ISS.
1 professional chef - in one B330 module docked to the ISS configured
as a 5 star restaurant
1 medical person - in one B330 module docked to the restaurant as an
activity and medical centre.

The pilots and crew are hired as needed by the chef and doctor

http://www.airlinereporter.com/2014/...bitat-mock-up/


And why do you need the legacy station again? It just gets in the
way. I note your 'cook staff' is now one guy and you lost the
'activity staff' entirely.

Oh, I completely missed the fact that ONE professional staff will manage a 5
star restaurant. I'm impressed.
--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

On Saturday, August 27, 2016 at 1:17:18 AM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...

William Mook wrote:


There's a total of 33
- 7 in the historical section - 4 pilots, 3 station crew (which include
researchers)
24 in four B330 modules docked to the ISS.
1 professional chef - in one B330 module docked to the ISS configured
as a 5 star restaurant
1 medical person - in one B330 module docked to the restaurant as an
activity and medical centre.

The pilots and crew are hired as needed by the chef and doctor

http://www.airlinereporter.com/2014/...bitat-mock-up/


And why do you need the legacy station again? It just gets in the
way. I note your 'cook staff' is now one guy and you lost the
'activity staff' entirely.

Oh, I completely missed the fact that ONE professional staff will manage a 5
star restaurant. I'm impressed.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Obviously, you've never been to a cooking lesson with a world class chef have you? It can be quite good, and a very special experience as well.

--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

"Greg \(Strider\) Moore" wrote:

"William Mook" wrote in message
...

On Friday, August 26, 2016 at 1:56:42 PM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore
wrote:
"William Mook" wrote in message
...

On Thursday, August 25, 2016 at 1:43:08 AM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore
wrote:
"William Mook" wrote in message

Buying something that you want makes no sense? hmm...

No, but they don't want it.

Cite?

You're the one claiming they want it. My cite is that I've seen no public
statements by them. I can't prove a negative. It's upon you to prove a
positive.


He's actually not even claiming that they want it. He's claiming that
they SHOULD want it, but he can't give a sane reason for why.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

"Greg \(Strider\) Moore" wrote:

"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
.. .

William Mook wrote:


There's a total of 33
- 7 in the historical section - 4 pilots, 3 station crew (which include
researchers)
24 in four B330 modules docked to the ISS.
1 professional chef - in one B330 module docked to the ISS configured
as a 5 star restaurant
1 medical person - in one B330 module docked to the restaurant as an
activity and medical centre.

The pilots and crew are hired as needed by the chef and doctor

http://www.airlinereporter.com/2014/...bitat-mock-up/


And why do you need the legacy station again? It just gets in the
way. I note your 'cook staff' is now one guy and you lost the
'activity staff' entirely.

Oh, I completely missed the fact that ONE professional staff will manage a 5
star restaurant. I'm impressed.


I was amazed at the idea that he thought you could do 5 star cooking
in microgravity. Mookie also apparently doesn't understand what it
takes to be a 5 star restaurant or who awards those. You don't get to
just 'declare' that you are.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

William Mook wrote:

Irrelevant MookSpew scanned and skipped. Nothing left.

snip


--
"Ordinarily he is insane. But he has lucid moments when he is
only stupid."
-- Heinrich Heine

William Mook wrote:

On Saturday, August 27, 2016 at 1:17:18 AM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...

William Mook wrote:


There's a total of 33
- 7 in the historical section - 4 pilots, 3 station crew (which include
researchers)
24 in four B330 modules docked to the ISS.
1 professional chef - in one B330 module docked to the ISS configured
as a 5 star restaurant
1 medical person - in one B330 module docked to the restaurant as an
activity and medical centre.

The pilots and crew are hired as needed by the chef and doctor

http://www.airlinereporter.com/2014/...bitat-mock-up/


And why do you need the legacy station again? It just gets in the
way. I note your 'cook staff' is now one guy and you lost the
'activity staff' entirely.

Oh, I completely missed the fact that ONE professional staff will manage a 5
star restaurant. I'm impressed.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Obviously, you've never been to a cooking lesson with a world class chef have you? It can be quite good, and a very special experience as well.


You have no idea what you're talking about. Obviously, you've never
looked at what it takes to operate a 5 star restaurant, have you? Yes,
you need a chef. You also need a sous chef, prep staff, cook staff,
bartenders, front of house staff, ...

Perhaps you should go back to that world class chef and have them
explain it to you.

And that's ignoring the whole "requires gravity to cook" thing...


--
"Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the
truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"William Mook" wrote in message
...

On Saturday, August 27, 2016 at 1:17:18 AM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore
wrote:
"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...

William Mook wrote:


There's a total of 33
- 7 in the historical section - 4 pilots, 3 station crew (which
include
researchers)
24 in four B330 modules docked to the ISS.
1 professional chef - in one B330 module docked to the ISS
configured
as a 5 star restaurant
1 medical person - in one B330 module docked to the restaurant as
an
activity and medical centre.

The pilots and crew are hired as needed by the chef and doctor

http://www.airlinereporter.com/2014/...bitat-mock-up/


And why do you need the legacy station again? It just gets in the
way. I note your 'cook staff' is now one guy and you lost the
'activity staff' entirely.

Oh, I completely missed the fact that ONE professional staff will manage
a 5
star restaurant. I'm impressed.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Obviously, you've never been
to a cooking lesson with a world class chef have you? It can be quite
good, and a very special experience as well.

Great, educate me. Find me a 5 star restaurant that has only ONE employee.
This has nothing to do with cooking lessons. This has to do with how a 5
star restaurant runs.
(and really a '5-star' restaurant is a pretty nebulous term anyway.


--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

William Mook wrote:

On Wednesday, August 17, 2016 at 1:11:56 PM UTC+12, Rick Jones wrote:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/08...ts_astronauts/
reports the Russians are mulling one less cosmonaut, with perhaps a
space tourist taking that cosmonaut's place.

rick jones
--
web2.0 n, the dot.com reunion tour...
these opinions are mine, all mine; HPE might not want them anyway...
feel free to post, OR email to rick.jones2 in hpe.com but NOT BOTH...

That's interesting. NASA, without the space shuttle, or a replacement near term, is thinking about selling its interest out entirely!


You mean NASA with no budget for ISS. Nothing to do with space
shuttle.


http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/08...te_enterprise/

Musk is the only buyer I can see. He can then use the ISS to train his crews and clients for moon tours and Mars flights. In fact, well heeled travellers (the 50,000 or so people worth $100 million and more) will likely spend some time on the space station, take a jaunt to the moon, as part of training, before committing to Mars.


I don't know why he'd do that. Musk has no interest in the Moon, so
'moon tours' are right out. Why would training a Mars crew on
hardware that's never going to Mars be helpful?


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn

"Greg \(Strider\) Moore" wrote:

"William Mook" wrote in message
...

On Saturday, August 27, 2016 at 1:17:18 AM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore
wrote:
"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...

William Mook wrote:


There's a total of 33
- 7 in the historical section - 4 pilots, 3 station crew (which
include
researchers)
24 in four B330 modules docked to the ISS.
1 professional chef - in one B330 module docked to the ISS
configured
as a 5 star restaurant
1 medical person - in one B330 module docked to the restaurant as
an
activity and medical centre.

The pilots and crew are hired as needed by the chef and doctor

http://www.airlinereporter.com/2014/...bitat-mock-up/


And why do you need the legacy station again? It just gets in the
way. I note your 'cook staff' is now one guy and you lost the
'activity staff' entirely.

Oh, I completely missed the fact that ONE professional staff will manage
a 5
star restaurant. I'm impressed.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Obviously, you've never been
to a cooking lesson with a world class chef have you? It can be quite
good, and a very special experience as well.

Great, educate me. Find me a 5 star restaurant that has only ONE employee.
This has nothing to do with cooking lessons. This has to do with how a 5
star restaurant runs.
(and really a '5-star' restaurant is a pretty nebulous term anyway.


It's not all that nebulous and there's no way in hell a restaurant
with ONLY a master chef will ever be a 5 star restaurant, since part
of that evaluation is SERVICE.

Mookie, as usual, thinks hucksterism triumphs over all.


--
"Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar
territory."
--G. Behn