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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
JF Mezei wrote on Fri, 12 Oct 2018
16:32:55 -0400: On 2018-10-12 15:18, Fred J. McCall wrote: I know you can never be bothered to look things up before you make ignorant statements, but you should read the Falcon 9 payload integration document. I doubt NASA would consider a crewed capsule to be a mere payload on a otherwise automated rocket. You doubt all sorts of things that are facts. There has to be far more sophisticated command/control channels between crew module and stage 1 and stage 2 than for a cargo flight. Why? And that would mean software on stage 1 and 2 would need to have the ability to send and receive far greater range of packet types on what might be an existing data bus. (or perhaps crewed Fancons will have extra data bus going to capsule). Or perhaps you're simply on your ass (which is the actual case). Why would you expect that? What is the crew going to do? If the capsule has the ability to automatically command an eject, ... There is no 'eject'. ... then that capsule must be getting a whole bunch of telemetry from the stages below it to make the decision. Why? The capsule doesn't 'command' in this case. It IS commanded by the booster. In an eject, ... Again, there is no 'eject'. ... do the fairings have to go out first? Won't the capsule have to have authority to command fairing ejection? (and would there be explosive bolts to ensure this works even when in atmosphere or are the existing pneumatic locks considered failsafe even if the stage below is in There are no fairings. Dragon rides naked and unafraid. they needed it done right now. This capsule is the test article for DM-1, the unmanned orbital test flight. Yep. Not a real article. Wrong. Can this test article actually support a manned mission in a pinch ? Or does it lack seats and other things that would sort of be necessary for an actually non-test manned mission ? Since it's a full up Crew Dragon, it's just like the one people would ride in. Will this one even attempt docking to station or just a fly by and then de-orbit and land ? I know you're incapable of reading anything, but this is dead easy to find. It will dock, stay docked for a couple weeks, then reenter and be recovered. The only thing missing is the people. Just because they have a test article at the Cape doesn't necessarily mean that it can be converted overnight to carry people the next day. Since it's identical to the ones that will carry people, it can be 'converted' in the time it takes people to get up the tower and climb in. That was hardly the only thing they found. Go read the report. The Columbia destruction was caused by foam that hit RCC panels on leading edge of wing. They found this very quickly. That was the cause of loss of vehicle. Yes, I know. But until you go through the entire failure review you are only guessing. Have you ever participated in a Failure Review Board? I have and you don't just pull the first likely answer out of your ass and top looking. The board, in making its inquiry found many other things wrong even if they weren't involved in the loss of Columbia per say. Many of the problems were with NASA culture and not the Shuttle. And why do you think they look at all those things? The Russians may not do in-depth investigations such as with Challenger and Columbia but that doesn't mean they don't find the actual cause of a failure quickly and if tyey are confident the problem isn't present in the next Soyuz, they will launch quickly since they can check for it. Well, yeah, actually it DOES mean they don't find the actual cause of the failure BECAUSE WITHOUT A COMPLETE ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS THEY DON'T BLOODY KNOW. What you're suggesting is "take a guess and then just keep flying". It is when you have a problem where you are not sure why it happened, or how to fix it that you have to suspend flights for a long time. You don't know jack **** about failure analysis, do you? Well, perhaps that's all YOU know, but those of us who are paying attention know that there was a booster failure that caused the core stage to shut down. I was quoting a NASA astronaut in yesterday's press conference who stated boosters came off cleanly. Then either you misheard him or he was totally out of the loop, because the separation problem was known almost immediately. You are basing your insult on information that was not yet available at the time I made that post. Not yet available TO YOU. Perhaps if you paid attention you'd have the same information available as everyone else. It is surprising that the core engine didn't go kaboom if it was damaged by a booster as it separated. I guess it would have hit only engine bell? Have you ever SEEN a Soyuz booster? The first two stages don't 'stack' the way you're thinking of them. The first stage consists of four strap-ons that attach to the SIDES of the second stage. Why would you expect the core engine to explode? Hell, real bombs don't do that on bad separations and neither do the aircraft they hit. The NASA statement today they are confident of a flight in December is interesting since I would think that with this information, anyone/everyone would wait till they have recovered the boosters and the core to see the attach point to get a hint on what happened. Make up your rabbit-assed mind; will there be an investigation or not? The first two stages (the strap ons and the core stage) aren't significantly different from the original R7 ICBM. And were Shuttle SRBs significantly different from ICBMs ? Very. I wouldn't say 'plenty' and most of them were for emergency systems. Pyros on shuttle: Holding SRBs to the pad. Holding SRBs to the ET. Holding Shuttle to the ET. None of those were for "emergency systems" Which part of 'most', which is a fairly common English word, is it that you don't understand? Pad hold downs are not part of the vehicle. So you have cited a whopping TWO sets of pyros. In other words, not 'plenty' and most pyro systems were safety related and never used. They know WHAT happened. What they don't know is WHY it happened. Knowing that a booster didn't separate cleanly does tell you what happened. That's what I said, above. are you incapable of reading simple declarative English sentences, even when the operative word is in all upper case? You want to know whether any of the attach points failed to separate and if one which one and why. Again, just what I said, above. Again, are you incapable of reading simple declarative English sentences, even when the operative word is in all upper case? Fr instance, if they recover a booster and find one of the attach point still has its pyro device undetonated, this gives a clue, especually if it ripped part of code stage skin with it because it failed to sepaare while the other attach pointseparated. The bottom attach points (the only ones that use pyros) aren't structural and the pyros are just to separate some umbilical lines. The entire structural support comes from the ball joint at the top, which doesn't use pyros for separation (it relies on inertia and some vented gas, in a very elegant and unique system). You can see in the videos that the separation didn't make a proper Korolev Cross but instead looks very 'messy', which indicates something didn't work properly during the separation. -- "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong." -- Thomas Jefferson |
#13
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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
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#14
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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
Jeff Findley wrote on Sat, 13 Oct 2018
09:43:55 -0400: In article , says... AND THIS JUST IN: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45842731 "Speaking in Moscow, Nasa head Jim Bridenstine said he expected a December mission to the International Space Station (ISS) to go ahead as planned." To me, this points to initial investigation pointing to either a sensor malfunction when everything was working well, ... Nope. You really need to avoid giving serious consideration to how things 'seem' to you or what you think facts might 'point' to. You are almost inevitably wrong. ... or they already identified what failed and know what to check on the new rocket before granting it right to fly. They know WHAT happened. What they don't know is WHY it happened. Agreed. And the fact that Russia is still planning on launching the next Soyuz on time, presumably with a crew on board, is indicative of how they handle these investigations. They assign blame as quickly as possible, fix the singular issue which was blamed, and start flying again as quickly as possible. All other issues are ignored in the interest of flying again as quickly as possible. Russian authorities claim the investigation will be completed by the 20th. The press even called this a "criminal investigation". The connotations of this are not good if you are one of the workers who build the vehicle or one of the people who are supposed to be part of quality assurance procedures. Actually they're not making these rockets anymore. They have a bunch of them in storage and when they need one they pull it out of the warehouse and assemble the stages. Russia says that the QC on boosters that are going to carry people is much more stringent than otherwise. This is the polar opposite of what NASA does which is pause everything for an indeterminate amount of time to allow everyone to review their systems looking for trends or ways it could fail. This is absolutely encouraged and not punished. This is why after each major accident, *many* issues are found, brought to the attention of management, and these issues are addressed in some way. Somewhere between those two approaches is probably the right approach. Groups should be looking for 'random **** that's wrong' all the time, not just when investigating an accident. Stuff that couldn't contribute to the accident under consideration should be eliminated from the tree early. Let's not sugar coat this. Russia has had a **** poor reliability record over the life of ISS. Three Progress resupply vessels never made it to ISS and the latest one of those was yet another launch failure. I think they have a systemic quality assurance problem which is partly driven by cultural differences that make that job very difficult. They assign blame, shoot the messenger, whatever you want to call it instead of encouraging an environment of continuous improvement. Russia has had around three rockets fail a year. They're just not typically the manned ones. So maybe there's some truth to those getting more QC attention. For ISS this is a good thing, because it means it very likely won't have to be de-crewed for any length of time. This reduces the chance that ISS will break when it is without a crew and can't be fixed remotely. So this increases the chance that the ISS program will continue to succeed. We're a long way from having to decrew ISS. The current crew can stay another six months and the Soyuz can be replaced by an unmanned flight using the hardware originally scheduled to take crew up in December. But, this is a bad thing for the safety astronauts who have to use Soyuz vessels to get to/from ISS. They don't really know what might happen next because Russia just fixed that one thing that went wrong and immediately started flying again. I'm not sure they're even doing that. It sounds to me like what they're going to do is just inspect the **** out of the rockets in storage and see if they find anything wrong, even if they don't know exactly what they're looking for. -- "Insisting on perfect safety is for people who don't have the balls to live in the real world." -- Mary Shafer, NASA Dryden |
#15
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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
Let's not sugar coat this. Russia has had a **** poor reliability
record over the life of ISS. Three Progress resupply vessels never made it to ISS and the latest one of those was yet another launch failure. I think they have a systemic quality assurance problem which is partly driven by cultural differences that make that job very difficult. They assign blame, shoot the messenger, whatever you want to call it instead of encouraging an environment of continuous improvement. For years the US been dependent upon Russia for ISS access. That's how reliable US is. For ISS this is a good thing, because it means it very likely won't have to be de-crewed for any length of time. This reduces the chance that ISS will break when it is without a crew and can't be fixed remotely. So this increases the chance that the ISS program will continue to succeed. But, this is a bad thing for the safety astronauts who have to use Soyuz vessels to get to/from ISS. They don't really know what might happen next because Russia just fixed that one thing that went wrong and immediately started flying again. |
#16
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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
JF Mezei wrote on Sat, 13 Oct 2018
15:56:38 -0400: On 2018-10-13 09:43, Jeff Findley wrote: They know WHAT happened. What they don't know is WHY it happened. Agreed. And the fact that Russia is still planning on launching the next Soyuz on time, presumably with a crew on board, is indicative of how they handle these investigations. If NASA's methods wee applied to car travel, there would be no cars travelling because with each accident, NASA would convene a 3 year investigation to ensure there are no safety defficiencies or design problems at GM, even if the accident was caused by a car driver going through a red light and hitting another car. Mostly bull****. It is ironic that you are quick to believe that they found out exactly what happened, but then criticise the Russians for not cancelling plans for another launch. It's ironic that you'd lie. Once they know what happened, then they can check the next rocket to ensure all the parts in that area of rocket were assembled properly and launch. Once they know it was human error and not a design flaw, the need to ground the fleet until the design flaw has been isolated is reduced. Except they won't know that just from knowing 'what happened'. They need to figure out WHY and HOW it happened, and that's the hard part. Same with that hole in the Soyuz. Once they find out that it was human error, they know where to check on the upcoming ships to ensure same error not present and allow it to launch. The Russians are constantly trying to 'inspect out' problems rather than figuring out root causes and fixing those to prevent the problems in the first place. It's a very 1960's approach and it simply doesn't work very well. That doesn't mean that they stop looking at why that emnployee made that mistake, why he was handed the wrong tenmplate, why he didn't notice it, and why he didn't warn anyone after he realized he drilled hole in wrong place. Of course it does. They punish that guy and move on. Again, a very 1960's approach. Having a 3 year long commission to conclude what they already know about a cultural problem that lacks full quality assurance mentality wouldn't do much since they already know that. My guess is that the drilling and now this accident will cause whatever relaxation in quality assurance to be undone to return to a stricter quality assurance. For a little while. And that's the whole problem with 'inspect in the quality'. It's just not sustainable in the long term. Your guess is wrong. I'd bet they didn't 'relax' or change anything at all, so there's nothing to 'undo' and nothing different to 'return to'. There is a huge difference between a problem that has already happened (loose bolt) that you can check for, and a problem that hasn't happened yet but could happen due to design flaw (battery issues on 787 for instance). In the later case, you want to ground the fleet because you can't predict/check when it will happen next. But why was that particular bolt loose? Design flaw? Bad manufacturing? Lack of retainer? Bad maintenance procedure? Higher than predicted vibration levels? You need to know and just inspecting that particular bolt just adds to the inspection load without solving the potential problem. But if an employee didn't tighten bols sufficiently it is easy to tell airlines to check their aircraft for loose bolts. (and once rectified, there is no fear of a problem so you can fly safely). Until the next plane goes down because of the next bolt... -- "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong." -- Thomas Jefferson |
#17
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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
JF Mezei wrote on Sat, 13 Oct 2018
16:03:47 -0400: On 2018-10-13 13:42, Fred J. McCall wrote: We're a long way from having to decrew ISS. The current crew can stay another six months and the Soyuz can be replaced by an unmanned flight using the hardware originally scheduled to take crew up in December. the "and" is the wrong word. You're a stupid ****er. Had you said we're a long way from decrew ISS *because* we can send unmanned Soyuz, then I would aggree. But that's not why, so 'because' is the wrong word. But as it stands, Jan 4, one Soyuz comes back. If there is no other Soyuz on station on that date, the remaining crew turns off the lights and comes back. So we are NOT a long way from an empty ISS. Want to bet? I bet they won't decrew. If Russia is confident it has isolated the cause and can check the next soyuz to ensure that flaw isn't present, then it can either launch crewed or uncrewed. But if it isn't so sure but decides to launch uncrewed, then it risks losing another Soyuz and that can eat up in its budgets and image. They lose three launchers a year. Which is the biggest hit to their image, running the (small) risk and losing an unmanned vehicle, running that same risk and losing a manned vehicle, or abandoning ISS because of their inability to perform? storage and see if they find anything wrong, even if they don't know exactly what they're looking for. But didn't you argue they already knew exactly what happened on this last flight? You really don't read simple declarative English, do you? They know WHAT happened, but they don't know WHY it happened. And knowing WHY is how you know how to prevent it from happening again. They shouldn't fly, manned or unmanned if they don't know what happened and thus can't check the next rocket for a defect. You're an idiot. -- "Ordinarily he is insane. But he has lucid moments when he is only stupid." -- Heinrich Heine |
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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
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#19
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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
On 10/11/2018 9:19 AM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"Jeff Findley"Â* wrote in message ... Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing for US-Russian Space Station Crew By Meghan Bartels, Space.com Senior Writer | October 11, 2018 05:11am ET https://www.space.com/42097-soyuz-ro...expedition-57- crew.html Stupid Russian reliability finally bit us in the ass.Â* Luckily it sounds like the crew survived the ballistic reentry and landing after the upper stage failed to start.Â* On Facebook someone said reentry G's were 6 point something.Â* High, but survivable. This comes on the heels of the hole, causing air loss, that was discovered in the orbital module of one of the Soyuz capsules docked to ISS. We need to fly commercial crew test flights a.s.a.p.Â* At this point it's reportedly NASA "paperwork" that's delaying the program! Jeff I've said for years, give me a comfortable lawn chair, some SCUBA equipment and some snacks and I'd fly Cargo Dragon tomorrow. But yeah, I can see this very quickly moving up the launches of Dragon 2 (and perhaps CST-100, but I suspect they're more constrained by available boosters.0 Not happening, according to spokesmen for both Boeing and SpaceX. https://spacenews.com/safety-panel-f...fety-concerns/ quote Commercial crew providers respond During a panel session later in the day [Oct. 11th] at the International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight here, managers of Boeing’s and SpaceX’s commercial crew programs said they were still confident that they could meet their current schedules for testing their vehicles, but would not sacrifice safety for schedule. The latest schedule, released by NASA Oct. 4, calls for an uncrewed test flight by SpaceX in January, followed by a crewed one in June. Boeing would perform an uncrewed test flight in March and a crewed one in August. That schedule, though, represented a delay of two months for SpaceX, and a roughly similar time frame for Boeing, since the previous schedule released in August. “You lay out a plan you believe you can achieve,” said John Mulholland, vice president and program manager for commercial programs at Boeing’s space exploration unit. He noted the company was 85 percent of the way through the overall test program, but added that still meant a chance of discovery of new issues during that final 15 percent. “If there’s discovery that we have, we’ll address it correctly, and fly as soon as we’re ready.” “You put together a plan, you expect to follow it, and you do your best to get there,” said Benji Reed, director of commercial crew mission management at SpaceX. “While we’re all pushing hard to get flying, you also want to want to provide it safely.” /quote These companies are too smart to buck the party line and bite the hand that feeds. Dave |
#20
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Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing of Soyuz!
On 10/15/2018 12:26 AM, David Spain wrote:
On 10/11/2018 9:19 AM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote: "Jeff Findley"Â* wrote in message ... Soyuz Rocket Launch Failure Forces Emergency Landing for US-Russian Space Station Crew By Meghan Bartels, Space.com Senior Writer | October 11, 2018 05:11am ET https://www.space.com/42097-soyuz-ro...expedition-57- crew.html Stupid Russian reliability finally bit us in the ass.Â* Luckily it sounds like the crew survived the ballistic reentry and landing after the upper stage failed to start.Â* On Facebook someone said reentry G's were 6 point something.Â* High, but survivable. This comes on the heels of the hole, causing air loss, that was discovered in the orbital module of one of the Soyuz capsules docked to ISS. We need to fly commercial crew test flights a.s.a.p.Â* At this point it's reportedly NASA "paperwork" that's delaying the program! Jeff I've said for years, give me a comfortable lawn chair, some SCUBA equipment and some snacks and I'd fly Cargo Dragon tomorrow. But yeah, I can see this very quickly moving up the launches of Dragon 2 (and perhaps CST-100, but I suspect they're more constrained by available boosters.0 Not happening, according to spokesmen for both Boeing and SpaceX. https://spacenews.com/safety-panel-f...fety-concerns/ These companies are too smart to buck the party line and bite the hand that feeds. Dave BTW. ASAP == Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel - talk about acronym abuse. Dave |
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