SpaceX Is Sending a Red Dragon Spacecraft to Mars in 2018

"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...

William Mook wrote:

On Thursday, April 28, 2016 at 2:33:30 PM UTC+12, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article ,
ess says...

On 28/04/2016 8:54 AM, William Mook wrote:

There are 60 peer reviewed papers and 200 researchers looking at
Roth's method of suspended animation, and he has over 7 years
experience. It may very well be that SpaceX have secretly solved
the
problem with enthusiastic volunteers, and plan to send one or two
people as volunteers one way in a Red Dragon to Mars.


Why would Elon Musk keep that secret?

He would not. The first Red Dragon test flight will clearly be
unmanned.

That is very likely.


That is a certainty because Musk isn't the loonytoon you are.

Oh I don't know. They both have fantastical ideas.
Along the way Musk was called a lonnytoon.

The concept of on-line money transfers.
The concept of cheap space flight.
The concept of an effective electric car.
The concept of colonizing Mars.

Of course one of these two has actually bent metal and built stuff.

I know who I'd put my money on.


Mook has gone off the deep end.

No I haven't. Your interpretation of what I've said is another story.


Yes, you have.


His head is completely full of
conspiracies these days.

Not at all.


Yeah, it is. You've always been a nutter but you used to cover it up
better.


That's why I placed him in my killfile.

Why are you responding then? lol. Look, ask me to leave and I will never
post here again.


You don't understand killfiles, either, do you? He's not responding
to you because he doesn't see your ****e anymore. He does, however,
see those of other people (like Sylvia, who he is responding to).
That's how killfiles work.

Last time this came up, I think Mook was convinced a killfile was some sort
of hit list and we were conspiring to kill him.

Do what you want, but when you act like a loony don't be surprised
when someone points it out.



--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...

William Mook wrote:

On Thursday, April 28, 2016 at 5:08:18 AM UTC+12,
wrote:
"SpaceX has been teasing potential Mars plans for a while now, but the
company just announced a launch date--and it's soon. They plan to hit
the
surface of Mars by 2018.

Especially intriguing is that the announcement refers to the spacecraft
as the "Red Dragon.""

See:

http://gizmodo.com/spacex-is-sending...-20-1773383681


It is equipped with hardware to land on Mars' surface.

http://www.space.com/32718-spacex-re...-pictures.html

They may plan to put one or two persons on board, using suspended
animation to get them there, ...


They also may plan on simply using magic for the whole mission.

That's more likely than using suspended animation at this point. :-)





--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

no doubt unmanned. but perhaps they will have a bigelow inflatable attached for the outbound flight?

the inflatable station could fly to mars, leaving the inflable portion in orbit, while landing red dragon.

a small robot could exit the red dragon, pick up a soil sample then sendit back to earth

On 29/04/2016 9:49 AM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:

Or a hab of some sort with enough shielding.

Shielding can be a twin-edged sword. It can interact with particles that
would have gone completely through a human body without interacting, and
produce a shower of particles that are damaging.

Sylvia.

In article ,
says...

no doubt unmanned. but perhaps they will have a bigelow inflatable attached for the outbound flight?

the inflatable station could fly to mars, leaving the inflable portion in orbit, while landing red dragon.

a small robot could exit the red dragon, pick up a soil sample then sendit back to earth

Sorry Bob, but orbital mechanics won't let you do this with one Falcon
Heavy.

Falcon Heavy barely has enough delta-V to get Red Dragon to Mars where
it will aerobrake and land. From what I understand, the Heavy would
need to be expended to get the performance necessary. What you're
proposing would either need many Falcon Heavy flights or a much bigger
launch vehicle.

Jeff
--
All opinions posted by me on Usenet News are mine, and mine alone.
These posts do not reflect the opinions of my family, friends,
employer, or any organization that I am a member of.

"Sylvia Else" wrote in message ...

On 29/04/2016 9:49 AM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:

Or a hab of some sort with enough shielding.

Shielding can be a twin-edged sword. It can interact with particles that
would have gone completely through a human body without interacting, and
produce a shower of particles that are damaging.


Which is why competent engineers take that into account.

That's a known issue.
Sylvia.

--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

"bob haller" wrote in message
...

no doubt unmanned. but perhaps they will have a bigelow inflatable attached
for the outbound flight?

the inflatable station could fly to mars, leaving the inflable portion in
orbit, while landing red dragon.

How do you get the inflatable into orbit? Remember you're basically at
either flyby trajectory, or a return, or landing.



a small robot could exit the red dragon, pick up a soil sample then sendit
back to earth

And now you need a launcher.

Certainly not happening on an early SpaceX mission.





--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

On Friday, April 29, 2016 at 11:53:21 AM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"Fred J. McCall" wrote in message
...

William Mook wrote:

On Thursday, April 28, 2016 at 2:33:30 PM UTC+12, Jeff Findley wrote:
In article ,
ess says...

On 28/04/2016 8:54 AM, William Mook wrote:

There are 60 peer reviewed papers and 200 researchers looking at
Roth's method of suspended animation, and he has over 7 years
experience. It may very well be that SpaceX have secretly solved
the
problem with enthusiastic volunteers, and plan to send one or two
people as volunteers one way in a Red Dragon to Mars.


Why would Elon Musk keep that secret?

He would not. The first Red Dragon test flight will clearly be
unmanned.

That is very likely.


That is a certainty because Musk isn't the loonytoon you are.

Oh I don't know. They both have fantastical ideas.
Along the way Musk was called a lonnytoon.

The concept of on-line money transfers.
The concept of cheap space flight.
The concept of an effective electric car.
The concept of colonizing Mars.

Of course one of these two has actually bent metal and built stuff.

I know who I'd put my money on.


Mook has gone off the deep end.

No I haven't. Your interpretation of what I've said is another story.


Yes, you have.


His head is completely full of
conspiracies these days.

Not at all.


Yeah, it is. You've always been a nutter but you used to cover it up
better.


That's why I placed him in my killfile.

Why are you responding then? lol. Look, ask me to leave and I will never
post here again.


You don't understand killfiles, either, do you?

I understand totally. You're the one who doesn't understand my reply.

He's not responding
to you because he doesn't see your ****e anymore. He does, however,
see those of other people (like Sylvia, who he is responding to).
That's how killfiles work.

Correct.

Last time this came up, I think Mook was convinced a killfile was some sort
of hit list and we were conspiring to kill him.

Liar.


Do what you want, but when you act like a loony don't be surprised
when someone points it out.



Anyone asks me not to post here again, I will not post. Its just that simple.

--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net

On Friday, April 29, 2016 at 1:39:07 PM UTC+12, Sylvia Else wrote:
On 29/04/2016 9:49 AM, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:

Or a hab of some sort with enough shielding.

Shielding can be a twin-edged sword. It can interact with particles that
would have gone completely through a human body without interacting, and
produce a shower of particles that are damaging.

Sylvia.

Tungsten Titanium alloy some 3 cm thick overlaying a 1 cm thick polyethelyne layer built into a powered suit should reduce most radiation to that found in the Earth's stratosphere.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...827d13ed79.jpg

Something like the AX-5 but built somewhat thicker with the lexan helmet replaced by a panoramic camera array and a virtual reality binocular display inside the 4 cm thick helmet. The joints are powered by piezo motors controlled by sensors inside the suit.

http://news.mit.edu/2012/stable-nano...-achieved-0823

The shell weighs about 960 kg for a typical adult male, 720 kg for a typical adult female, less for children and people of smaller stature.

On Friday, April 29, 2016 at 4:31:00 PM UTC+12, Greg (Strider) Moore wrote:
"bob haller" wrote in message
...

no doubt unmanned. but perhaps they will have a bigelow inflatable attached
for the outbound flight?

the inflatable station could fly to mars, leaving the inflable portion in
orbit, while landing red dragon.

How do you get the inflatable into orbit?

Aerobraking.

http://mars.nasa.gov/mro/mission/tim...mtaerobraking/
http://ccar.colorado.edu/asen5050/pr...h/history.html

Remember you're basically at
either flyby trajectory, or a return, or landing.

Well, because the gravity on Mars is different than on Earth, and the gas on Mars is different on Earth, the lapse rate on Mars is different than on Earth.

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/www/k-12/ai.../atmosmrm.html




a small robot could exit the red dragon, pick up a soil sample then sendit
back to earth

Especially if we send something like this;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVlhMGQgDkY

http://archive.darpa.mil/roboticscha..._v15_DARPA.PDF

Reducing payload to 1 ton and capsule weight to 4 tons, allows 15 tons for propellant and a 6.37 km/sec delta vee after landing on Mars. Which is what SpaceX has said - a 1 ton payload with capsule return.

At 150 kg each, seven of these guys could go on a Red Dragon. Seven of these guys can do quite a lot. Rechargable battery packs that give the units 12 operating hours on the surface, that are then hot swapped when they return to the capsule, which has a large solar panel.

Now, rather than landing on the surface in a capsule, and staying on one spot for 120 days, it makes more sense to land on Diemos and cycle to many spots on Mars and back, as you refill the ship's fuel supplies, and reconnoiter the surface.

Entering a highly elliptical orbit is possible with very little delta vee since a highly elliptical orbit is very similar to a flyby orbit. The periapsis is chosen to slow the speed in the atmosphere at periapsis and causes the apoapsis to decay. When the apoapsis reaches Diemos' orbit, the spacecraft then lands on Diemos with very little added delta vee.

Diemos is very low density and is likely made of water ice. Its also in sunlight most of the time. So, with a solar panel and a source of water, you can make oxygen and hydrogen via electrolysis and use that to fuel spacecraft. From there, you can land on Mars and return using Draco engines on a rocket belt.

http://www.wired.com/2013/07/lunar-flying-units-1969/

http://rocketbelt.nl/pogos/nasa-lunar-transport

And now you need a launcher.

Larger launchers are always a good idea anyway, so that's a go. For a given mission, you have a choice, make more sophisticated payloads, or wait for more sophisticated launchers. You need to think about both to make the best decisions going forward.

Certainly not happening on an early SpaceX mission.

SpaceX will do ALL it can given its resources in terms of money and talent. They will certainly use the best and brightest for that purpose to achieve real savings so that Mars will be settled privately.

A Dragon capsule landing on Diemos, and sending 7 Atlas robots via rocket belt to the surface, 120x each over a 120 day period allows visiting 840 spots, while a high resolution camera surveys all the planet from Diemos.

We can figure out some general characteristics for this mission as follows;

The Earth is 1.00 AU from the Sun. Mars is 1.52 AU. The Earth takes 1 year to go around the sun. Mars takes 1.52^1.5 = 1.874 years.

Now the speed of the Earth is 1 Earth circumference per year. Mars is 1.52 Earth circumference per 1.874 years or 0.811 Earth circumference per year.

Now, a Hohmann transfer orbit has a perihelion at 1.00 AU and an apohelion of 1.52 AU. This is a semi-major axis of 2.52 / 2 = 1.27 AU. Its orbital period is 1.27^1.5 = 1.430 years. Half this, is the time it takes to travel from Earth to Mars, or 0.715 years.

Now, the speed at perihelion must be;

v = sqrt( 2/1 - 1/1.27) = 1.101

at Earth and will be

v = sqrt( 2/1.52 - 1/1.27) = 0.727

Earth is moving 1 Earth circumference per year. So, we must impart 0.101 Earth's velocity per year. Upon arrival at Mars we must subtract 0.811 - 0.727 = 0.084 Earth circumference per year.

Now the AU or astronomical unit, is 149,500,000 km. A year is 8766 hours x 3600 seconds/hour = 31,557,600 seconds. So, the Earth's speed is 2 * pi() * 149.5 million / 31.5576 million = 29.76 km/sec.

So, we must add 0.101 * 29.76 = 3.012 km/sec at Earth and add 0.084 * 29.76 = 2.506 km/sec at Mars.

Mars itself is moving at 0.811 * 29.76 = 24.14 km/sec.

Now, Earth's escape velocity is 11.19 km/sec and Mars' escape velocity is 5..03 km/sec. Now, if we fire a rocket from Earth's surface at 11.59 km/sec at the right time and in the right direction, it will fly to Mars. At Mars if the vehicle arrives just ahead of the planet, it will be moving 2.506 km/sec slower. At this point it will fall to Mars and hit the surface at 5..620 km/sec well above escape velocity.

Hitting the limb of Mars at the right altitude allows you to slow to a landing, or to enter an orbit. Slowing to zero and you're resting on the Mars surface. Slowing to 3.56 km/sec puts you in a circular orbit. This is a difference of 2.06 km/sec. A one gee acceleration takes 210.06 seconds to achieve this delta vee, and covers 216.4 km distance. This is about 1% of the circumference of Mars! To maintain one gee as you slow down, means that you must descend to increase density by 2.5x - you use lapse rate, vehicle weight, and heat sheild area, to determine altitude, and rate of descent.. You use lift to maintain the right flight angle, and then reverse it to skip back out. When you reach apoapsis 180 degrees later, you use a very slight boost to lift periapsis and circularise orbit.

Now, at 1 mars radius speed is 3.56 km/sec. A transfer orbit between 1 mars radius to 6.95 mars radii the semi-major axis of Diemos in terms of Mars radii has a semimajor axis of 7.95/2 = 3.975 mars radii. We can figure out that the speed is

v = sqrt(2/1 - 1/3.975) = 1.323

times the 3.56 km/sec orbital velocity. Or 4.703 km/sec. At 6.95 Mars radii the speed slows to

v = sqrt(2/6.95 - 1/3.975) = 0.190

times the 3.56 km/sec orbital velocity. Or 0.677 km/sec.

Now, the radius of Mars is 3389.5 km so its circumference is 21,296.9 km. So, that orbital period is 21296.9/3.56 = 5982.2 seconds or 1.662 hours. This is one period. An object at 6.95 Mars radii takes 6.95^1.5 = 18.322 low Mars orbital periods or 18.322 * 1.662 = 30.45 hours. Now the circumference of an orbit 6.95x Mars radii, is 6.95x Mars circumference or 148,013.2 km. Dividing this distance by the number of seconds in 30.45 hours obtains 1.35 km/sec. So, to land on Diemos requires that the spacecraft add 0.674 km/sec to its orbital speed.

To get back to Earth from Diemos, requires that you impart 1.80 km/sec to the payload at Diemos. To get to Mars from Diemos, requires that you impart 0.68 km/sec to the payload at Diemos. To get from Mars to Diemos requires you achieve 4.71 km/sec. To cycle between Diemos and Mars and back, requires a delta vee of 5.40 km/sec.

A hydrogen oxygen rocket - refilled at Diemos from ice sources there (Diemos density is only 1.6x that of water so ice is virtually guranteed there) the capsule can easily return, and landers can cycle back and forth a few times.

A Falcon heavy has 53 ton capacity to LEO. Orbital velocity is 7.9 km/sec. 11.6-7.9 = 3.7 km/sec. Capture at Mars to land on Diemos is another 0.7 km/sec. A total of 4.4 km/sec. A hydrogen oxygen rocket has an exhaust velocity of 4.6 km/sec in vacuum. So, 0.6158 of 53 tonnes is hydrogen and oxygen. 33 tonnes of hydrogen oxygen. This leaves 20 tonnes of useful load. The Dragon capsule is 4.2 tons and carries 3.3 tons. 7.5 tonnes - leaving 12.5 tons for propellant - or equipment to make propellant. This much propellant achieves 4.5 km/sec. Only 1.8 km/sec is needed returning from Diemos. This requires only 6.5 tons of propellant, which means that 6.0 tons of propellant is surplus when landing on Diemos.

Now, the Atlas robots are 0.15 tons each, and equipped with a dozen draco RCS rockets adapted for use with Hydrogen Oxygen, and high expansion, so that they can leave Diemos land on Mars, and return, within 24 hours spending 11 hours on the surface, requires 0.335 tons of hydrogen oxygen. So, with 6 extra tons, you can land and return 18 times to 18 different spots on Mars.

So, three of the robots can land and return six times over the first week following landing on Diemos.

Four of the other robots can install a solar powered water extraction system on Diemos, to extend this landing programme.

335 kg of propellant consist of 51.54 kg of hydrogen and 283.46 kg of oxygen made from 463.85 litres of water. This requires 7.3 gigajoules of energy.. To refill one robot rocket belt in 48 hours requires 42.3 kW of power. A 60% efficient multi-band solar collector that's 12.7 meters in diameter allows one rocket belt to be recharged every 48 hours, when supplied by 10 litres of water per hour. Four of these units allow four landing robots to explore Mars - doing 240 landings at 240 spots over 120 days. The other three robots that tend to the fuel production system, are available as backups and to explore Diemos and maintain the ship.






--
Greg D. Moore http://greenmountainsoftware.wordpress.com/
CEO QuiCR: Quick, Crowdsourced Responses. http://www.quicr.net