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  #1  
Old October 19th 03, 01:26 AM
Eugene Kent
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default New Space Race?

Notice how Bushevik doesn't bad mouth China. But a collusion is coming in
the next 20 years as China demands that the missiles that Bushevik is
ringing China with be dismantled.

"Steve Dufour" wrote in message
om...
What Next for China? Friendly Competition or New Cold War?
By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer
space.com
posted: 07:00 am ET
17 October 2003





China's milestone making Shenzhou 5 flight, piloted by Yang Liwei, a
lieutenant colonel of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), is sparking
a wide array of opinions as to the mission's true significance.

The landmark space voyage is expected to be China's opening volley in
what policy analysts anticipate will be an ever-expanding agenda of
human space exploits. China's Shenzhou 5 trek marked the fifth flight
of the craft in four years time, and the first to carry a pilot.

But to what degree does China's historic sojourn into space signal
military intentions, a hungering for space cooperation, or just a
public morale boost fueled by nationalistic get-up-and-go?

National pride

Erich Shih, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center
for Northeast Asian Policy in Washington, D.C., sees the success of
China's first human space flight as a huge boost to the Chinese
people's sense of national pride.

Images




China's first manned spacecraft Shenzhou 5 lifts off from Jiuquan
Satellite Launch Center in northwest China's Gansu Province Wednesday,
Oct. 15, 2003. China became the third country to send an astronaut
toward orbit, four decades after the Soviet Union and the United
Sates. (AP Photo/Xinhua, Li Gang)







First Chinese astronaut Yang Liwei waves as the capsule door was
opened after landing on the Inner Mongolian grasslands of northern
China Thursday, Oct. 16, 2003. China's first astronaut in space
returned safely to Earth on Thursday when his craft toucheddown on
time and as planned after 21 hours in orbit. Beijing's mission control
declared the country's landmark debut flight "a success." (AP
Photo/Xinhua)







China's first astronaut Yang Liwei is greeted by officials upon his
arrival in Beijing Thursday Oct. 16, 2003. Fresh from a history-making
trip into orbit, China's newly minted space hero proclaimed his
amazement Thursday at "the greatest day of my life" as his leaders
announced they would push forward in their exploration of the cosmos.
(AP Photo/Xinhua Photo, Zhao Jianwei)




More Stories


Chinese Astronaut Marvels Over Space Trip





China's First Taikonaut Safely Returns to Earth





China Launch Won't Ignite New Space Race, Analysts Say





China Launches Its First Piloted Spaceflight





Making History: China's First Human Spaceflight Archive







"It is also a boost to China's international image," Shih said, and
"shows the world that China has every potential to become the next
power center in East Asia."

Shih said, however, that one successful human space flight is not
going to change China's present international pecking order. "But it
does point out a future direction.that China is moving up through the
ranks," he said.

For the Chinese it's a very historic event, said Marcia Smith, a
policy analyst at the Congressional Research Service in Washington,
D.C. "It demonstrates that they have the technological ability to put
humans into space. Where it all leads, I think it's still up in the
air," Smith said.

The Chinese have discussed plans for their human spaceflight program,
Smith said, that includes building space stations and maybe, some day,
even sending people to the Moon. "Those are very expensive endeavors
and time will tell whether or not they consider that to be a
worthwhile investment."

Bragging rights

Bates Gill, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for
Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), contends that the Shenzhou 5
mission is not "Sputnik II" or the start of a new "space race".

"Nevertheless, being the first developing-world country to put a man
in space gives China some bragging rights and brings it a step closer
to its claims to be accepted as a 'Great Power,'" Gill said.

Gill said that, for the near-term, the Shenzhou 5 flight will resonate
most in China, giving that country a big boost in national pride and
the Communist Party's hopes for legitimacy. Over the longer term, he
added, if Beijing's commitment to a robust space program continues to
grow, China's strategic missile modernization will steadily realize
increasing technological benefits.

James Lewis, CSIS senior fellow and director of the group's Technology
and Public Policy Program, views China's space voyage in different
terms.

"Countries send people into orbit to increase national prestige.
Manned space flight does very little to change the equation for space
commerce or national security," Lewis said.

Lewis said one issue is whether Beijing or Washington will "overreact"
to the successful Shenzhou 5 flight and turn it into a new source of
competition. Another issue, he added, is whether the United States
"will be embarrassed about the disarray in its own manned space
program."

No stunt

"It has been 42 years since the last time a nation put its first human
into space," said Matt Bille, a space historian and analyst for Booz
Allen Hamilton in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

"The Chinese have clearly done this very methodically, developing
their technology step by step and testing the spacecraft four times
before now," Bille noted. "I suspect we are going to see a logical
program of building up their capability in low Earth orbit to do
long-term stays and focus on earth science, industrial applications,
and other capabilities that have some payoff for their economy as well
as national pride," he said.

"No other nation has done this in 42 years - not even the European
Space Agency. The Chinese will emphasize this. When it comes to space,
they -- not India, not Europe -- have been the first in four decades
to join the superpowers. You're going to see a nation bursting with
pride at earning its place in the history books," Bille told SPACE.com
.

"This has been very careful.and very logical. It's a very well thought
out program. That tells you that this is not meant as an occasional
stunt," Bille said.

Chinese Moon?

Writer Paul Dickson, author of the book, Sputnik: The Shock of the
Century, says the real question is what next for China's space
program?

"The Chinese have been promising to deliver humans to the lunar
surface as long as they've been talking about putting a man in orbit,"
Dickson said. When and if it becomes apparent that this is China's
goal, that will have a ripple effect in NASA plans, he said.

"I think the U.S. will have to seriously consider getting back into
the business of manned space exploration. It is hard to imagine that
the U.S. will allow the Chinese or the Chinese in partnership with the
Russians to explore and exploit the Moon. It also means that for the
first time since Richard Nixon was in the White House serious talk can
resume about sending humans to Mars," Dickson said.

Perhaps humans will be walking on the Moon again in 2007, Dickson
suggested, on the 50th anniversary of the Sputnik launch which started
it all.

"The first thing I thought about when I heard the news [about Shenzhou
5] was Sputnik. The second thing was the fable about the race between
the tortoise and the hare," Dickson said.

ISS: Open airlock policy

With a human space trek under its belt, could a debate now ensue in
China regarding the value of piloted or robotic space exploration
questions Jonathan Coopersmith, a Texas A&M University professor
specializing in the history of technology.

"In terms of non-political results, robotic spacecraft are more
productive. Will Chinese advocates of robotic flights now face a
powerful 'man in space' lobby like their American counterparts?,"
Coopersmith said.

"It will be very interesting to see how this launch plays in Taiwan
and Russia," Coopersmith added. "Indeed, how will the Chinese
government exploit the Shenzhou flight for domestic and foreign
political benefit?"

The United States may respond to the Shenzhou 5 flight by inviting
China to become a partner on the International Space Station (ISS),
Coopersmith suggests. "An offer of cooperation will be politically
important to China and will constitute an American acknowledgement of
China's technological accomplishments," he said.

On the other hand, China participation in the station would lend
financial and technical support for the troubled space station. "The
Bush administration, restricted financially by the growing budget
deficits it has created, will correctly argue that cooperating with
China is less expensive than competing with it," Coopersmith said.

Strategic implications

The Shenzhou 5 landing and safe return of the taikonaut is an event
that has several strategic implications for the United States and the
international community.

That's the view of William Martel, professor of National Security
Affairs, and the Chair of Space Technology and Policy at the Naval War
College in Newport, Rhode Island.

Firstly, Martel said, China has now entered the ranks of the "first
tier" states. "In terms of prestige and technological ability, China
is now of the primary players in space. This, by itself, has
significant implications for the U.S. and its position of unquestioned
strategic superiority in space."

Martel said that China can be expected to accelerate the pace of its
space program.

"Now that China has passed the 'human milestone of putting someone in
space -- and bringing him back home safely -- China will correctly
conclude that its program can be directed toward more manned missions.
We should remember that China is actively promoting the idea of
putting people on the Moon. In addition, China will engage in other
programs, such as new constellations of satellites, a new
'Hubble-like' space telescope, and so forth," Martel told SPACE.com .

Replay of Cold War Space Race?

Beginning in the late 1950s, the "space race" between the former
Soviet Union and the United States was a powerful metaphor for showing
off political, economic, and cultural strengths. The "top that" nature
of this rivalry -- from Vostok versus Mercury, or Gemini versus Soyuz
-- was muted over time as Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin set foot on
the Moon. Ultimately, this 20th space superpower competition led to
cooperative adventures, such as the International Space Station.

It remains to be seen how China may rekindle a 21st century replay of
Cold War one-upmanship as a new arrival in human space exploration.

China is likely to expand its relationships with other international
consortia, Martel said. "Today, for example, several European nations
expressed interest in teaming with China for future space flights."

Martel said that China clearly views the Shenzhou 5 success "as part
of the early stages of more aggressive competition with the United
States over its current position of supremacy in space."

"It is inevitable that China and the United States will begin to
believe that they are engaged in some form of a space race," Martel
concluded. "This can have significant military and technological
implications for both sides. And this can have positive consequences.
We should remember that the greatest advances in the U.S. space
program occurred during the Cold War, when Washington and Moscow were
directly competing in space."

"For now, it looks like the principal players in space will be
Washington and Beijing," Martel concluded.



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  #2  
Old October 19th 03, 01:41 AM
John Sefton
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"Eugene Kent" wrote in message
...
Notice how Bushevik doesn't bad mouth China. But a collusion is coming in
the next 20 years as China demands that the missiles that Bushevik is
ringing China with be dismantled.


Yeah, the US should really be scared now that China has it's own Mercury
progamme 40 years after the US managed it! LOL


  #3  
Old October 19th 03, 01:41 AM
John Sefton
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"Eugene Kent" wrote in message
...
Notice how Bushevik doesn't bad mouth China. But a collusion is coming in
the next 20 years as China demands that the missiles that Bushevik is
ringing China with be dismantled.


Yeah, the US should really be scared now that China has it's own Mercury
progamme 40 years after the US managed it! LOL


  #4  
Old October 19th 03, 03:40 AM
V35B
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Take off yor blinders....




John Sefton wrote:

"Eugene Kent" wrote in message
...

Notice how Bushevik doesn't bad mouth China. But a collusion is coming in
the next 20 years as China demands that the missiles that Bushevik is
ringing China with be dismantled.



Yeah, the US should really be scared now that China has it's own Mercury
progamme 40 years after the US managed it! LOL



  #5  
Old October 19th 03, 03:40 AM
V35B
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Take off yor blinders....




John Sefton wrote:

"Eugene Kent" wrote in message
...

Notice how Bushevik doesn't bad mouth China. But a collusion is coming in
the next 20 years as China demands that the missiles that Bushevik is
ringing China with be dismantled.



Yeah, the US should really be scared now that China has it's own Mercury
progamme 40 years after the US managed it! LOL



  #6  
Old October 19th 03, 08:58 AM
John Sefton
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"V35B" wrote in message
...
Take off yor blinders....


Yeah, it's terrible to be limited by hard facts and harsh reality, isn't it!

John Sefton wrote:

"Eugene Kent" wrote in message
...

Notice how Bushevik doesn't bad mouth China. But a collusion is coming

in
the next 20 years as China demands that the missiles that Bushevik is
ringing China with be dismantled.



Yeah, the US should really be scared now that China has it's own Mercury
progamme 40 years after the US managed it! LOL





  #7  
Old October 19th 03, 08:58 AM
John Sefton
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default


"V35B" wrote in message
...
Take off yor blinders....


Yeah, it's terrible to be limited by hard facts and harsh reality, isn't it!

John Sefton wrote:

"Eugene Kent" wrote in message
...

Notice how Bushevik doesn't bad mouth China. But a collusion is coming

in
the next 20 years as China demands that the missiles that Bushevik is
ringing China with be dismantled.



Yeah, the US should really be scared now that China has it's own Mercury
progamme 40 years after the US managed it! LOL





  #8  
Old October 21st 03, 04:10 PM
Ugo
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Fred Williams" wrote in message
.. .
I wonder if they really stole U.S. technology, why their rocket
didn't blow up, or their spaceship disintegrate on reentry. They
must be doing something differently, eh?


LOL :-)))
Is it me or do U.S. rockets have higher tendency of blowing up than the
Russian ones?
Seriously though, I thought that Chinese space technology is actually based
on the Russian Soyuz program?


  #9  
Old October 21st 03, 04:10 PM
Ugo
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

"Fred Williams" wrote in message
.. .
I wonder if they really stole U.S. technology, why their rocket
didn't blow up, or their spaceship disintegrate on reentry. They
must be doing something differently, eh?


LOL :-)))
Is it me or do U.S. rockets have higher tendency of blowing up than the
Russian ones?
Seriously though, I thought that Chinese space technology is actually based
on the Russian Soyuz program?


  #10  
Old November 13th 03, 02:42 PM
G=EMC^2 Glazier
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Betelnut The one thing Chinese engineers will not copy is putting wings
on rockets.Chinese people love to gamble,but not with human life.
China needs to put 2 million people to work every year. Their having
right now 250 thousand people in their space program will be doubled in
a few years. Someday they will copy the Saturn V and build a space
station on the moon. They will call the moon base "Ming" We will have
to take off our shoes before entering the Ming base. We will be handed
chop sticks with our names hand carved in wood.(chop sticks are easy to
clean) We will have a war as to who will own the moon. We did plant the
American flag first. Bert

 




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