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Leif Svalgaard's talk on Solar Cycle Prediction at the LowellObservatory in Flagstaff, AZ (last fall)



 
 
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Old March 13th 10, 06:39 PM posted to sci.physics,sci.astro
Mike Jr
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Default Leif Svalgaard's talk on Solar Cycle Prediction at the LowellObservatory in Flagstaff, AZ (last fall)

http://www.leif.org/research/Predict...ar%20Cycle.pdf

"We discuss a number of aspects related to our understanding of the
solar
dynamo. We begin by illustrating the lack of our understanding.
Perhaps as
exemplified by SWPC's Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel. They received
and
evaluated ~75 prediction papers with predicted sunspot number maxima
ranging
from 40 to 200 and with a near normal distribution around the
climatological
mean indicative of the poor State of the Art. Flux Transport Dynamo
Models
were recently hyped? or hoped? to promise significant progress, but
they give
widely differing results and thus seem inadequate in their current
form. In these
models, higher meridional flow speed should produce strong polar
fields and a
short solar cycle, contrary to the observed behavior of increased
meridional flow
speed, low polar fields, and long-duration cycle 23. Poorly understood
Precursor-methods again seem to work as they have in previous cycles.
I review
the current status of these methods. Predictions are usually expressed
in terms
of maximum Sunspot Number or maximum F10.7 radio flux, with the
implicit
assumption that there is a fixed [and good] relation between these
measures of
solar activity. If Livingston & Penn s observations of a secular
change in sunspot
contrast hold up, it becomes an issue which of these two measures of
solar
activity should be predicted and what this all means. The coming cycle
24 may
challenge cherished and long-held beliefs and paradigms. ."

--Mike Jr.

What we don't know would fill a book.
 




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