in my opinion (both) Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once! ...could NASA rockets win vs. privates on launch date and prices?

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in my opinion (both) Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once!!!

"could NASA rockets win vs. privates on launch date and prices?"

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despite (in my articles [ http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/articles.html
] and posts) I've suggested MANY simpler, faster and cheaper ways to
build the Ares rockets, I doubt (very much) that (both) the Ares-I and
Ares-V could/will (REALLY) fly once, someday...

that NOT due to TECHNICAL problems (despite to-day's bad news about
the Ares-I design) but (mainly) due to a (very simple!) ECONOMICAL
reason

I admit that I was very skeptic about the ability of privates to build
and launch (soon) reliable, low cost rockets, but, in the latest
years, we have seen many successful results from privates, all them
(most important) accomplished in A FEW year with a small number of
engineers and a (relatively) SMALL amount of money (million$ rather
than billion$$$)

this is a brief story (so far) of their success:

Burt Rutan has developed and built TWO airplanes (a carrier and a
suborbital vehicle) with a (modest) $30M investment and his test-
pilots have accomplished several (safe and successful) X-15-like
suborbital flights

Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic will soon carry (around 2009)
hundreds suborbital space tourists with his SpaceShipTwo

Robert Bigelow has already (and successfully) launched his first
(scale-sized) inflatable module in orbit and soon (around 2012) he
will launch his (first of many) man-rated, full-size, inflatable
modules' orbital-hotel for astronauts and tourists carried to it with
Soyuz, Shenzhou, ACTS, Dragon, Orion and other private capsules like a
(possible) Bigelow/LockMart tourists capsule launched with a man-rated
AtlasV

please note that, if Mr. Bigelow will succeed in his plan, the
habitable space of his (first) multi-modules space-hotel should EXCEED
(soon) the habitable space of the ($100+Bn) ISS at a FRACTION of its
costs since the Bigelow-Space-Hotel will be built in orbit without
dozens and dozens Shuttles' flights!

last but not least, the Elon Musk's SpaceX have (nearly successful)
launched its first commercial rocket that reached 600 km. of altitude
(1.5 times the ISS orbit!) after (just) ONE test flight!!!

what impressed me in the SpaceX launch was NOT the launch itself but
the fact that SpaceX is a very small company with a small number of
engineers that have developed and built the Falcon-1 in a few years
investing a mere $100M ... a REALLY RIDICULOUS amount of money
compared with the big-companies/space-agencies' rockets that (ALL)
costed MANY BILLION$$$ each (for R&D) before their first launch!!! ...
$8+Bn to develop the Ariane5, $7+Bn for the Ares-I, $12+Bn for the
Ares-V, etc.

and likewise impressive is the PRICE-PER-LAUNCH of the Falcon-1 (when
operational) that's LESS THAN $7M to launch a 670 kg. payload to a 200
km. LEO compared with (e.g.) the (simpler and air-launched)$30M
Pegasus-XL that launches a 443 kg. payload to a 185 km. LEO

also the (manned) Dragon capsule (despite its too ambitious specs:
seven astronauts in a 3.65 m capsule!) doesn't seem impossible to
(really) fly in orbit soon (maybe, within 5-6 years)

but these are just the EARLY DAYS of the private space industry since
MANY new (internatoinal) privates and MANY (old and emerging)
countries (Russia, China, India, Japan, Europe, Iran, South Korea,
North Korea, Brazil, etc.) work hard to develop their LOW COST rockets
for (both) commercial and military markets!

within 5-10 years, DOZENS privates and space agencies of the world
will be able to launch 10 mT, 20 mT, 30 mT payloads very RELIABLE
rockets at a FRACTION (maybe, $50M each) of the Ares-I price, also,
these (low cost) rockets could be man-rated, then, become SAFE/
RELIABLE enough to launch the Orion (or whichever manned capsule
available in the next years)

and, since the private companies are FAST and EFFICIENT in their job/
business, doesn't seem impossible to have (soon) also some GIANT
rockets (like the the AresV or bigger) available on the market around
2015 or (at least) a few years BEFORE the first AresV (TEST) launch!!!

so, the 1st question is:

"could NASA rockets win vs. privates on launch date and prices?"

MY opinion/answer is that (especially after the latest +3 years sum of
delay) NASA can't win the competition vs. privates (and/or other
countries) on (both) the first-flights date and the launch prices
since NASA is going to give a GIANT advantage to (both) private
companies and foreign countries "TEN YEARS OF TIME" !!!

in the next TEN YEARS (while NASA will develop and launch the Orion/
Ares-I) many privates (and some emerging countries) will have ENOUGH
TIME to do (now) INCREDIBLE THINGS !!!

then, the 2nd question is:

"should NASA buy (in 2010-2020) these (5-10 times cheaper)
"commercial" rockets and DELETE (soon) the (too expensive) Ares
program?" (BEFORE they'll fly once!)

of course, my (pragmatic) opinion/answer is "YES" since they
(absolutely) CAN'T TAKE a different choice/decision!!!

just an example to explain why:

if a "public agency" needs (e.g.) some powerful computers (not
avaiable on the market or very expensive) certainly it CAN develop and
build (internally) the computers they need (and doesn't matter if that
computers will cost $10M each!!!)

but, if the SAME computers are ALREADY available on the market at
(e.g.) $500 each, I doubt very much that (both) politics and taxpayers
could allow this "public agency" to spend 100+ times to develop and
build "their own" ($10M each) computers!!!

then, if, within 5-6 years, many (cheap, reliable and man-rated)
"private" rockets will be (really) available on the market, the Ares-I
would/will be DELETED (while at half of its development timeline) and
(only) the (5+ times cheaper) private's rockets adopted/used to launch
the Orion... so, the Ares-I could NEVER fly once!

and the SAME story should/could/will happen (within 10-12 years) for
the AresV ...

the ONLY way for NASA to (try to) avoid this (embarrassing and
humiliating) destiny/scenario is to CHANGE (soon) its (current) TOO
SLOW plan to adopt "something simpler, faster and cheaper" to launch
the first manned Orion MUCH SOONER than planned (maybe, around
2012 ...not later!)

what do you think about?

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