...Hurricane Dean... Third Strongest Ever Recorded...

On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 19:47:31 -0400, "Jonathan"
wrote:


...for an Atlantic landfalling hurricane.


And btw, coming a good month earlier than most of the competition.



"Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time)
Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico.
It is the first landfalling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin
since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992.
Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall
behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and
Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun, Mexico."
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tr...=wxcenter_news




Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes on Record


Wilma 882 mb Oct, 2005

Gilbert 888mb Sep, 1988

Florida Keys 892 mb Sep,1935

Allen 899 mb Oct, 1998

Mitch 905mb Oct, 1969

Camille 909 mb Aug, 1969
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html

Thanks for the weather report.

Science that lives by anecdotal evidence dies by anecdotal evidence.
-- Captain Compassion

--
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority but to
escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. -- Marcus Aurelius

Wherever I go it will be well with me, for it was well with me here, not
on account of the place, but of my judgments which I shall carry away
with me, for no one can deprive me of these; on the contrary, they alone
are my property, and cannot be taken away, and to possess them suffices
me wherever I am or whatever I do. -- EPICTETUS

Joseph R. Darancette

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 21:57:32 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:


"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...


In other words, in geological terms, you have very limited experience.



Huh! Are you losing your mind?

No, not at all. Are you unfamiliar with the word "geological"? Or
"terms"? Or "limited," or "experience"?

Just what is your mental problem that causes you to fantasize that
others are losing their minds?

Looks like we have another inutile k00k on our hands. What are you
prating about, geological storm boy?

On 23 août, 01:47, "Jonathan" wrote:
...for an Atlantic landfalling hurricane.

And btw, coming a good month earlier than most of the competition.

"Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time)
Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico.
It is the first landfalling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin
since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992.
Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall
behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and
Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun, Mexico."http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.

Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes on Record

Wilma 882 mb Oct, 2005

Gilbert 888mb Sep, 1988

Florida Keys 892 mb Sep,1935

Allen 899 mb Oct, 1998

Mitch 905mb Oct, 1969

Camille 909 mb Aug, 1969http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html

Thank you Jonathan for that very interesting report, and your
following comments

Best regards

jpturcaud

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
ups.com...
On Aug 23, 12:47 am, "Jonathan" wrote:
...for an Atlantic landfalling hurricane.

And btw, coming a good month earlier than most of the competition.

"Hurricane Dean made its first landfall around 3:30 am (Central Time)
Tuesday with 165 mile per hour winds near Costa Maya, Mexico.
It is the first landfalling category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin
since Hurricane Andrew struck South Florida in 1992.
Its pressure of 906 millibars is the third lowest pressure at landfall
behind the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys and
Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 in Cancun,
Mexico."http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.

Strongest Atlantic Hurricanes on Record

Wilma 882 mb Oct, 2005

Gilbert 888mb Sep, 1988

Florida Keys 892 mb Sep,1935

Allen 899 mb Oct, 1998

Mitch 905mb Oct, 1969

Camille 909 mb Aug, 1969

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/mitch/mitch.html

I don't see how one could deduce Global Warming, or any
other type of climate change, from those data. The minimum pressure,
if accurately known, would be a better measure than pressure at
landfall which is somewhat arbitrary. It also assumes a
straightforward relationship between the numbers of hurricanes and
their intensity and sea and air temperatures whereas there are other
very important factors to be considered.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.


Raining bombs in the Middle East.
Chaos theory.
Elephant in the room.

Just a thought.....

Alan

"Jonathan" wrote in message
.. .

"Harley" wrote in message
. com...

Just another global warming 'anecdote' that seems to happen
all too regularly these days.


A 15 year spead, and that's all too regular?


In the last three years, we've seen the Atlantic hurricane
season break all time records for number of storms, the
lowest pressure ever, the smallest eye ever (2 miles!!!), and
the most destructive ever.

Most of the biggest records have all fallen in the last three years.
And the very first hurricane of this season is right up there
with the strongest of all time. It's average size mercilessly
helped spare a large population center.

Hurricane Dean had hurricane force winds out to about
60 miles most of the time. While Katrina and Wilma
in 2005 extended out about 100 miles. Making them
much more likely to hit a large population area.



Although last year was a very "boring" season with no US landfalls and at
sea activity supressed by dry air and an El Nino.

Also bear in mind that despite the ferocity of Dean the Atlantic is
experiencing slightly below normal activity for August. There has only been
one storm so far this month, with the models not predicting anything to spin
up for the next few days at least.

Cat 5 hurricanes are not unusual for the Atlantic during the active phase of
the AMO. It is the steering currents and the environmental conditions that
determine whether they will strike land and at what strength. Dean hit as a
cat 5 because firstly the SSTs were very warm along its path and the wind
shear was low and secondly it was moving quickly which meant there was less
interaction of the outer circulation with the land to weaken the storm
before the eye came ashore.

Adam

"Jonathan" wrote in message
.. .

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
ups.com...

I don't see how one could deduce Global Warming, or any
other type of climate change, from those data. The minimum pressure,
if accurately known, would be a better measure than pressure at
landfall which is somewhat arbitrary. It also assumes a
straightforward relationship between the numbers of hurricanes and
their intensity and sea and air temperatures whereas there are other
very important factors to be considered.


The point is that this is another near all time record storm.
And during the last few years most of the all time records
have been smashed. And what is troubling is that the
primary driver of hurricanes, ocean temps, have only
risen about half a degree centigrade while intense storms
have doubled. This is a far stronger increase in intensity
than predicted given the change in temps.

So, when the ocean temps rise another 3 or 4 degrees
as is possible in the next decades? What will the storms
be like then? The facts can be argued over till we're blue
in the face, but the overall trends are clear and very
ominous imho. We live in a non linear world. A very
small change in initial conditions can result in
massive effects.


Global warming cause of intense hurricanes?
NBC News
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9429241/


Since the late seventies, global air temps started climbing.
http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_evd.htm#graph

While in the late seventies, the annual rate of co2 level
increase jumped by some 50% over the previous 25 years.
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2

Which is accompanied by rising ocean temps during the
same period of time.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s399.htm

Followed by the increased storm intensity we're experiencing
now.

The charts all show something dramatic changed in the late
seventies to early eighties. And what has changed is the
annual rate of increase of co2, it's /doubled/ in that time.



The 70's and 80' were during the negative phase of the AMO which supresses
hurricane activity. The AMO switched sign in 1995 which resulted in a jump
in activity from then on. Thus if you compare the negative phase of the AMO
to the positive one 30 years later then of course the number of intense
storms will have increased. It would be like saying that global warming is
responsible for the rise in temperatures from January to July. To establish
the role of global warming in increased Atlantic hurricane activity you
somehow have to remove the effects of the AMO which is tricky. It is likely
there is some effect as the Atlantic hurricane activity is sensitive to
local SST anomalies - much more than in other basins.

Adam

wrote in message
ups.com...
I remember strong hurricanes
from my childhood.

A few years ago I stumbled across a page on the National Hurricane Center's
website showing that a hurricane once hit Albuquerque in the 1800s. That
means it had to cross the entirety of Texas and maintain hurricane strength
winds, which means it must have been a real ball-buster, far stronger than
anything we've seen since then.

There isn't even vaguely enough data available to make meaningful statements
about historical weather trends, and the existing data is suspect. The
current climate change hysteria is being driven by politics and not science.
*Consensus is not science*.

My parents talk about hurricanes in theirs and so
on. There is NOTHING odd about recent years except for the LACK of
hurricanes. As far as all the damage, REAL Florida natives have
better sense than to build on the beach but transplants dont know any
better so they build million dollar condos there and then complain whn
the get destroyed,

And then get paid by the government to build there again. If they want to
rebuild, I say, go for it, but *no government insurance* and no government
help for cities. Build at your own risk.

On Aug 22, 9:12 pm, (Rand Simberg)
wrote:
On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 21:57:32 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:



"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...

In other words, in geological terms, you have very limited experience.

Huh! Are you losing your mind?

No, not at all. Are you unfamiliar with the word "geological"? Or
"terms"? Or "limited," or "experience"?

But we all have "very limited experience" in geological terms, Rand.
Unless you're 2 -4 billion years old.

Are you that old, Rand?

Do you have extensive "experience," geologically?

On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 06:01:10 -0700, in a place far, far away, john
fernbach made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:

On Aug 22, 9:12 pm, (Rand Simberg)
wrote:
On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 21:57:32 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:



"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...

In other words, in geological terms, you have very limited experience.

Huh! Are you losing your mind?

No, not at all. Are you unfamiliar with the word "geological"? Or
"terms"? Or "limited," or "experience"?

But we all have "very limited experience" in geological terms, Rand.
Unless you're 2 -4 billion years old.

Are you that old, Rand?

Do you have extensive "experience," geologically?

I didn't say personal experience. I was referring to...you
know...book learnin'.

On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 13:14:25 GMT, in a place far, far away,
h (Rand Simberg) made the phosphor on my
monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that:

On Thu, 23 Aug 2007 06:01:10 -0700, in a place far, far away, john
fernbach made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:

On Aug 22, 9:12 pm, (Rand Simberg)
wrote:
On Wed, 22 Aug 2007 21:57:32 -0400, in a place far, far away,
"Jonathan" made the phosphor on my monitor glow
in such a way as to indicate that:



"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...

In other words, in geological terms, you have very limited experience.

Huh! Are you losing your mind?

No, not at all. Are you unfamiliar with the word "geological"? Or
"terms"? Or "limited," or "experience"?

But we all have "very limited experience" in geological terms, Rand.
Unless you're 2 -4 billion years old.

Are you that old, Rand?

Do you have extensive "experience," geologically?

I didn't say personal experience. I was referring to...you
know...book learnin'.

Actually, going back and reading in context, that's not what I meant,
neither.

My point was in fact that *all* of us have limited historical (if you
don't like "geological") experience, yet Jonathan seems to think that
his limited experience with hurricanes is somehow significant in
establishing a trend.