Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast of Next Sunspot Cycle

http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml



March 6, 2006

BOULDER—The next sunspot cycle will be 30-50% stronger than the last
one and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough
forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by
scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).
Predicting the Sun's cycles accurately, years in advance, will help
societies plan for active bouts of solar storms, which can slow
satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power
systems.

The scientists have confidence in the forecast because, in a series of
test runs, the newly developed model simulated the strength of the
past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. The forecasts are
generated, in part, by tracking the subsurface movements of the
sunspot remnants of the previous two solar cycles. The team is
publishing its forecast in the current issue of Geophysical Research
Letters.
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