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#1
October 17th 03, 07:09 AM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
I would guess that the first person to walk on Mars would probably be
Chinese in about 2020. My odds would be Nationality of first person on Mars :- Chinese 28% Russian 22% European probably German 18% USA 15% Indian 8% Other 9% And the year :- Before 2010 1% 2010 to 2015 10% 2015 to 2020 20% 2020 to 2025 25% 2025 or later 35% Never 9% I guess it is pretty pesimistic to give such odds on us never going there but it is possible that if we do not go soon the human race will never have the resources and ability to go. 
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#2
October 17th 03, 11:13 AM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
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#3
October 17th 03, 11:21 AM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
"Stephen" wrote in message om... I would guess that the first person to walk on Mars would probably be Chinese in about 2020. My odds would be Nationality of first person on Mars :- Chinese 28% Russian 22% European probably German 18% USA 15% Indian 8% Other 9% Chinese first on Mars? No way. That's troll-talk. Most likely the U.S. in conjunction with Russia and Europe or by itself. The Chinese won't be able to do it before 2020 at least, unless they're willing to take extreme risks. And we all know that the Communist Party is aversive towards taking risks as any failure (read: death of the astronauts) will rub off on them and threaten their power base. The delayed information on the Shenzhou flight should be indicative to this. And the year :- Before 2010 1% 2010 to 2015 10% 2015 to 2020 20% 2020 to 2025 25% 2025 or later 35% Never 9% Never is nonsene. Eternity is a long time!! For the rest, the figures seem about right.
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#4
October 17th 03, 03:01 PM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
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#5
October 17th 03, 03:11 PM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
More google bull. posting.google.com
-- Alan Erskine alanterskine(at)hotmail.com Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad - the new Hitler http://www.optusnet.com.au/news/stor...tic/969056.inp "Stephen" wrote in message
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#6
October 17th 03, 03:22 PM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
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#7
October 17th 03, 04:11 PM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
"jjustwwondering" wrote in message m... (Stephen) wrote in message . com... I would guess that the first person to walk on Mars would probably be Chinese in about 2020. My odds would be Nationality of first person on Mars :- Chinese 28% Russian 22% European probably German 18% USA 15% Indian 8% Other 9% USA 76% EU 12% Japanese 6% Chinese 3% Russian 1% Other 2% The EU and Russia will most likely be rubbing shoulders before long and merge their space programs, is my guess. The Russians have the knowledge and experience, the Europeans the money and technology. And the year :- Before 2010 1% 2010 to 2015 10% 2015 to 2020 20% 2020 to 2025 25% 2025 or later 35% Never 9% Before 2010 tiny 2010 to 2015 1% 2015 to 2020 4% 2020 to 2025 10% 2025 to 2100 50% Much later 25% (if civilized society collapses, then revives) Never 10% (if the species destroys itself) Very plausible timetable.
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#9
October 17th 03, 04:23 PM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
"Rand Simberg" wrote in message ... On 16 Oct 2003 23:09:10 -0700, in a place far, far away, (Stephen) made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: I would guess that the first person to walk on Mars would probably be Chinese in about 2020. My odds would be Nationality of first person on Mars :- Chinese 28% Russian 22% European probably German 18% USA 15% Indian 8% Other 9% It will almost certainly be an American, and it won't be a government employee. What odds are you offering. I think I'd like to take a piece of that action. I guess it is pretty pesimistic to give such odds on us never going there but it is possible that if we do not go soon the human race will never have the resources and ability to go. Actually, the longer wait, the easier it will get. That's not an argument I find terribly convincing myself.
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#10
October 17th 03, 04:33 PM
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What odds on the first person to walk on Mars and when
On Fri, 17 Oct 2003 15:23:12 +0000 (UTC), in a place far, far away,
"Dave" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: It will almost certainly be an American, and it won't be a government employee. What odds are you offering. I think I'd like to take a piece of that action. I don't know, but it will be several years until the results are known, anyway. I see very little llikelihood of a government doing it. I have an ongoing bet (an ounce of gold) with Mark Hopkins that the first lunar base will be private. I guess it is pretty pesimistic to give such odds on us never going there but it is possible that if we do not go soon the human race will never have the resources and ability to go. Actually, the longer wait, the easier it will get. That's not an argument I find terribly convincing myself. Why? Our technology improves continually, as does our resource base. -- simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole) interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org "Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..." Swap the first . and @ and throw out the ".trash" to email me. Here's my email address for autospammers:
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