The European Space Agency just unveiled its plans to build a base onthe moon

"The European Space Agency recently announced plans for an international moon
base. The agency believes they could start building the complex in 20 years, with
different countries focusing on their areas of expertise."

See:

http://www.techinsider.io/esa-intern...-agency-2016-3

On Saturday, March 26, 2016 at 6:02:54 AM UTC+13, wrote:
"The European Space Agency recently announced plans for an international moon
base. The agency believes they could start building the complex in 20 years, with
different countries focusing on their areas of expertise."

See:

http://www.techinsider.io/esa-intern...-agency-2016-3

More here;

http://www.space.com/29285-moon-base...ce-agency.html

Yes, ESA is following my advice, which originated 20 years ago, and is documented here;

http://www.asi.org/adb/02/06/inflatables-study-1.html

Consider the following hypergolic propellants: NTO/MMH used in rockets that have up to 2.9 km/sec exhaust speed. In combination this propellant has a combined density of 1.2 kg/litre (1.2 metric ton per cubic meter).

So, a Dragon Capsule with a solar powered trunk, massing 6 tons at lift off, must achieve 2.95 km/sec delta vee to boost to a lunar free return trajectory, that takes a vehicle to the moon in four days, and then imparts 2.30 km/sec delta vee to slow to a lunar landing from trans-lunar orbit, and then impart another 2.30 km/sec delta vee to blast back to Earth.

So, starting on the moon return and working backwards;


u = 1 - 1/exp(2.30/2.90) = 0.547562 -- p=1-u = 0.452438 -- TOW=P/p = 6000/0.452438 = 13,261.5
U = u * TOW = 7,261.5 kg - propellant -- 6,051.2 litres -- 2260..9 mm diameter

We find that to get the Dragon capsule and trunk back to Earth from the surface of the moon requires that 54.7562% of the take off weight must be propellant. Which for a 6,000 kg Dragon capsule & trunk means 7,261.5 kg of NTO/MMH propellant must be carried along - which will fid into 2.26 m diameter spherical tank, with a bulkhead dividing it into appropriate ratios. The weight of the tank is 315 kg.

A similar calculation would take this combined total and land it softly on the moon, after arriving at the lunar vicinity. This requires; 13,261.5 / 0.45238 = 29,311.1 kg -- 16,049.63 kg of additional propellant. This is a pill shaped tank, with spherical end caps, that's 4,085.1 mm long and 2,260.9 mm diameter. The weight of this tank is 698 kg.

The combined mass of the two tanks Dragon capsule with trunk, is 30,324.1 kg in LEO.

The Falcoln heavy has the capacity to accelerate 16,600 kg into a translunar trajectory using LOX/RP1 Merlin vacuum engine attached to the Falcon upper stage. The Merlin Vaccum engine has a 3.4 kg/sec an Isp of 345 seconds achieved with an expansion ratio of 117:1. For added reliability of restart, the engine has dual redundant pyrophoric igniters (TEA-TEB). This has an exhaust speed of 3.4 km/sec.

http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy

So, two launches of the Falcon heavy, one with the Dragon capsule and lunar return tank, totalling 13,261 kg and a second booster carrying the larger NTO/MMH propellant tanks totalling 16,100 kg. Both feed the Super Draco engines are capable of landing on the moon and returning to Earth, once supplied with propellant.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2c4Wvgn9_CU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bhW2h08zhY

So, two Falcon heavy rockets launch payloads on a trans lunar trajectory. The capsule and trunk with smaller propelant tank attached to the nose and a second payload consisting of larger pill shaped tank. The capsule docks with the larger propellant tank while on its way to the moon and both payloads land on the moon using the capsule's super Draco engines. The depleted tank is left on the moon. The larger tank is opened to vacuum, to cleanse it of propellant residue, sealed back up, and attached to a life support unit in the trunk, for use as a pressure vessel for lunar housing.

An un-piloted Dragon capsule - a cargo version - sent to the moon - leaves a modified solar powered trunk there along with a 2.26 m diameter and 4.08 m long pressure vessel which serves as a base and carries up to 3 tons of supplies. The capsule and smaller tank return to Earth for recovery and reuse. In a manned flight the capsule and trunk are returned with the astronauts and smaller tank. The larger tank is added to the 'lunar trunk' - which accepts up to six tanks connected radially to the central trunk. This trunk houses not only solar panels but also supplies and a series of connectors and airlocks.

So, with two launches, at $90 million each, and seven people, that's $25.72 million per person to land on the moon and return to Earth. Sending 84 people to the moon, at a rate of 7 per month, requires 24 launches per year earning $2.16 billion.

The USA is paying $70 million to send an astronaut to the International Space Station. $75 million to send people to the moon for two weeks, seems like a good deal.

Extracting the Super Draco engine array from the Dragon Capsule, to create a "Lunar Light" version of the system described above, for a one way journey, with no propellant, would allow 12,000 kg to be placed on the lunar surface. This is a little over half the size of the BA-330. So, an expanded hotel would be possible using inflatable technologies.

The Chinese and Indian rovers and orbiters report vastly more ice and water on the moon than reported by the USA in the past. Most of this appears to be around the lunar polar regions. A pair of 16,000 kg payloads totalling a single 32,000 kg payload after docking, when slowed by hydrogen oxygen propellant combination that is replenished on the moon from water supplies found there, requires;

u = 1 - 1 /exp(2.3/4.6) = 0.393469, p = 1 - 0.393469 = 0.606531

32000 * 0.393469 = 12,591.0 kg -- 4,096 mm diameter sphere 544 kg.

32,000 - 12,591 - 544 = 18,865 kg.


Part A: 16,000 kg - inert
Part B: 2,865 kg - inert, 544 kg tank, 12,591 kg propellant.

This supplies 6x the payload to the moon than the SpaceX derived system, using the same launchers. Looking at the 7 people that are supported by a 3,000 kg Dragon capsule, 16,000 kg will likely support the transport of 35 to 42 people. With reusable hardware, launch costs are reduced to $40 million per pair, so, this drops to the $1 million to $1.5 million range in costs, and $4 to $5 million in costs. At these prices numbers per year rise from 84 per year spending 2 weeks each on the moon, to 2,000 per year, spending several months on the moon. Population rises from 7 on the moon, part of the month, to 100 on the moon permanently. Launch rates rise from two per month to six per month. Revenues rise from $2 billion per year to $12 billion per year.

This sets the stage for Mars.

On Friday, March 25, 2016 at 1:02:54 PM UTC-4, wrote:
"The European Space Agency recently announced plans for an international moon
base. The agency believes they could start building the complex in 20 years, with
different countries focusing on their areas of expertise."

See:

http://www.techinsider.io/esa-intern...-agency-2016-3

elon musk will have a mars base way before that.

All those steps for a lunar base above can be carried out in 24 months of funding and will prove out the technology for a Mars base.within one synodic period of a return to the moon.

I have gone through the numbers for a Stulinger style Mars mission using a Falcoln heavy launcher. A lighter mission involving a single launch with a single capsule one way is possible in 24 months as well. Survival on Mars is the issue at that point.

A crewmember of typical size requires approximately 5 kg or 11 lb(total) of food, water, and oxygen per day to perform the standard activities on a space mission, and outputs a similar amount in the form of waste solids, waste liquids, and carbon dioxide.

The mass breakdown of these metabolic parameters is as follows:

0.84 kg of oxygen,
0.62 kg of food, and
3.52 kg of water

Using solar power water and oxygen are easily recovered. So we are talking 0.62 kg of food per day. Two people 500 days equal 620 kg of concentrate with air and water recycling. Waste accumulates as carbon in the system. That is used to fertilise Martian crops

The dragon capsule is designed for up to two years up to 7 people. Two people per capsule and three capsules per launch to a Mars transfer orbit one way is possible. That's $15 million per person. 3D printing and soil processing to build Martian homestead upon arrival is within reach.

This is the decade we will return to the moon and begin settlement of Mars.

They're not mutually exclusive. With a water resource on the moon we will settle on the moon as easily as Mars.

The Chinese are interested in the moon as well:

China Likely To Beat NASA Back To The Moon:

"Chinese taikonauts will likely beat NASA astronauts back to the lunar surface
in as little as five to ten years, longtime lunar scientist and geologist Paul
Spudis now tells me. If so, that will happen primarily by default, as the lunar
surface continues to drop off NASA's crewed destination radar.

Of course, that doesn't preclude Russia, the European Space Agency (ESA), or
numerous commercial space ventures -- who have all expressed a desire to return
astronauts to the lunar surface -- from getting there sooner. But for now,
Spudis thinks the Chinese are most likely to next make it happen."


"As Spudis writes in the book, "...the dirty little secret is that most
politicians love human Mars missions ... because it is an excellent and proven
way to keep the space community pacified by selecting a goal that is so far
into the future that no one will be held accountable for its continuing
nonachievement.""

See:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedor.../#570543f6604c


======================================


Note that the Chinese have already established a "Space Station" ......

..... In Argentina!


http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/0...-in-argentina/


Quote:

"A secret Chinese space station is being built on land in Argentina as a result
of a deal four years ago which granted China permission to use the land for
space exploration.

Argentina and China have discussed using the space for a program dedicated to
"moon exploration and other space activities." Although the agreement between
the two nations called for the programs to operate under a certain level of
secrecy, Argentina's President Maurico Macri has vowed to make certain
confidential information publicly available. Despite Argentina's willingness to
make research information public, China has been quiet about their involvement
in the program."

On Sunday, March 27, 2016 at 12:38:23 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
All those steps for a lunar base above can be carried out in 24 months of funding and will prove out the technology for a Mars base.within one synodic period of a return to the moon.

I have gone through the numbers for a Stulinger style Mars mission using a Falcoln heavy launcher. A lighter mission involving a single launch with a single capsule one way is possible in 24 months as well. Survival on Mars is the issue at that point.

A crewmember of typical size requires approximately 5 kg or 11 lb(total) of food, water, and oxygen per day to perform the standard activities on a space mission, and outputs a similar amount in the form of waste solids, waste liquids, and carbon dioxide.

The mass breakdown of these metabolic parameters is as follows:

0.84 kg of oxygen,
0.62 kg of food, and
3.52 kg of water

Using solar power water and oxygen are easily recovered. So we are talking 0.62 kg of food per day. Two people 500 days equal 620 kg of concentrate with air and water recycling. Waste accumulates as carbon in the system. That is used to fertilise Martian crops

The dragon capsule is designed for up to two years up to 7 people. Two people per capsule and three capsules per launch to a Mars transfer orbit one way is possible. That's $15 million per person. 3D printing and soil processing to build Martian homestead upon arrival is within reach.

This is the decade we will return to the moon and begin settlement of Mars.

They're not mutually exclusive. With a water resource on the moon we will settle on the moon as easily as Mars.

Population was reportedly 7.125 billion three years ago. today, population is reportedly 7.411 billion. This is an implied rate of population growth of 1.322% per annum. Over the next 10 years population will rise to 8.451 billions by 2026AD at this rate. At that time 12,745 people will be added to the human population each hour.

Removing 50,000 people per hour from Earth to colonies on Mars, the moon, and the major asteroids, will reduce human numbers permanently on Earth over an 18 year period, after which permanent population levels will be maintained at a low level as desired; in millions of people;

Year Earth Off World

2026 8,451.00 525.96
2027 8,036.76 1,068.86
2028 7,617.05 1,629.23
2029 7,191.79 2,207.65
2030 6,760.90 2,804.70
2031 6,324.32 3,420.97
2032 5,881.97 4,057.09
2033 5,433.77 4,713.69
2034 4,979.64 5,391.43 -- population off world exceeds Earth's.
2035 4,519.51 6,090.99
2036 4,053.30 6,813.08
2037 3,580.93 7,558.42
2038 3,102.30 8,327.76
2039 2,617.36 9,121.88
2040 2,126.00 9,941.56
2041 1,628.14 10,787.64
2042 1,123.71 11,660.96
2043 612.60 12,562.40 -- populaton on Earth below 1 billion.
2044 94.74 13,492.87 -- export rate collapses due to low population.

Compare this rate to air travel today;

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pag...-12-06-01.aspx

Today, airlines carry 410,000 passengers per hour in 2015 and 165,400 passengers per hour over international routes. There are 3,825 wide body passenger aircraft and 1,026 wide body cargo aircraft. There are another 15,500 smaller aircraft owned by 800 scheduled airliners around the world.

So 50,000 per hour is less than 1/3rd the international traffic today and 1/8th the commercial airline travel today.

How will people be supported off world?

By automated AI that self replicates.

Self replicating machine systems will be used to transforms the environments of the moon, Mars and the major asteroids,

http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepNASA.html

Here are the materials available:

http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/nlsc2008/pdf/2116.pdf

Mars 6.39x10^23 kg 6778 km diam 1.5237 AU 5.027 km/sec 14.1778 km depth = Ceres mass
Moon 7.34x10^22 kg 3474 km diam 1.000 AU 2.380 km/sec 3.1660 km/depth = Ceres mass
Ceres 8.95x10^20 kg 950 km diam 2.7675 AU 0.510 km/sec 1 Ceres Mass
Vesta 2.95x10^20 kg 525 km diam 2.3618 AU 0.360 km/sec 32.96% Ceres Mass
Pallas 2.10x10^20 kg 512 km diam 2.7716 AU 0.330 km/sec 23.46% Ceres Mass
Hygeia 8.67x10^19 kg 500 km diam 3.1421 AU 0.210 km/sec 9.68% Ceres Mass

It takes 69.6 doubling periods to grow from 1 kg mass to the Mass of Ceres. So, a 1 second doubling time using a controlled fusion reaction would take little more than a minute to complete the reaction!

There are 7 parts per billion of Lithium, and 7.5% of that total is the easily fissioned isotope Lithium-6 which forms an alpha particle and a tritium particle along with 4.8 MeV after absorbing a neutron. This tritium particle easily has sufficient energy to fuse with a deuterium nucleus to create another helium particle and a neutron again, releasing 17.6 MeV. This combination, called the Jetter Cycle and is aneutronic. This process is used to fuse other materials as well. D+T and D+D. Neutron flux can be used to fission Thorium or Uranium as desired as well, or cause Boron to undergo aneutronic fusion as well.

Hydrogen including deuterium is super-abundant compared to Lithium-6.

http://www.space.com/17680-giant-ast...pacecraft.html

Initiating a fusion reaction that reduces a well defined volume of material to elemental plasma, and then extracting materials from the plasma created in this way via time of flight mass spectrometry, and using additive manufacturing to re-assemble those materials into anything desired, is a process whereby self-replicating machines can quickly operate throughout these bodies to produce anything required of them.

This rapid transformation of lifeless objects to life bearing worlds was portrayed in a 1986 sci-fi film as follows;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM1r37zIBOQ

Of course in addition to transforming the surface of a planet, the interior of the planet may be processed as well, and material ejected from the world to create large colonies in a parallel orbit around the Sun.

Here's the energy it takes to eject a kg off world

Mars: 25.2707 MJ/kg
Moon; 5.6644 MJ/kg
Ceres: 0.2601 MJ/kg
Vesta: 0.1296 MJ/kg
Pallas: 0.1089 MJ/kg
Hygeia:0.0441 MJ/kg

This all compares favourably with 15 MJ/kg to reduce materials to elemental atoms and recombine them.

Open air haibtats were first engineered in 1997 by Forrest Bishop

http://www.iase.cc/openair.htm

A square meter of colony masses 100,000 kg. So dividing this figure into the mass of Ceres results in 17.55 Earth areas, which are comprised of 2,723 colonies each about the area of India, or 3.29 million sq km each.

Mars, the Moon, Ceres, each have a grand total of 8,171 colonies which rise to 9,968 colonies when the major asteroids are added to the total. In 2044 AD total population at each colony is 1,353,620 persons each occupying 2..43 square kilometers of habitable area. 600 acres per person. An extended family of 13 persons would occupy an area equivalent to the Biltmore Estate.

http://www.smithsonianchannel.com/vi...e-estate/14380

Here's the break-down;

Mars: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit 1.5237 AU
Moon: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit around Earth Sol L1 & L2
Ceres: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit 2.7675 AU
Vesta 897 colonies - in solar orbit 2.3618 AU
Pallas 639 colonies - in solar orbit 2.7716 AU
Hygeia 263 colonies - in solar orbit 3.1421 AU


Vis Viva equation gives us the velocity of objects in an orbit;

V =sqrt( 2/r - 1/a)

Where V is the velocity and r is the position of the object and a is the semi-major axis of the orbit. Now the Earth takes 1 year to travel around the sun in 1 AU with this formula. To convert to km/sec we need to know the length of a AU in kilometers and the number of seconds in a year. So we take the length of AU in km as the radius of a circle and calculate the circumference and divide that length by the number of seocnds in a year. This gives you the average speed of the Earth in km/sec - which is 29.785 km/sec. This allows you to convert the values obtained for the transfer orbits from Earth to Mars and the asteroids.

A minimum energy orbit requires the following transfer times;

Mars - 259 days
Moon 4 days
Ceres 472 days
Vesta 398 days
Pallas 473 days
Hygeia 545 days

At constant 1 gee boost;

Mars 2.07 days to 4.54 days
Moon 3.75 hours
Ceres 3.80 days to 5.55 days
Vesta 3.34 days to 5.24 days
Pallas 3.81 days to 5.55 days
Hygeia 4.18 days to 5.82 days

On Sunday, March 27, 2016 at 8:28:08 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
On Sunday, March 27, 2016 at 12:38:23 PM UTC+13, William Mook wrote:
All those steps for a lunar base above can be carried out in 24 months of funding and will prove out the technology for a Mars base.within one synodic period of a return to the moon.

I have gone through the numbers for a Stulinger style Mars mission using a Falcoln heavy launcher. A lighter mission involving a single launch with a single capsule one way is possible in 24 months as well. Survival on Mars is the issue at that point.

A crewmember of typical size requires approximately 5 kg or 11 lb(total) of food, water, and oxygen per day to perform the standard activities on a space mission, and outputs a similar amount in the form of waste solids, waste liquids, and carbon dioxide.

The mass breakdown of these metabolic parameters is as follows:

0.84 kg of oxygen,
0.62 kg of food, and
3.52 kg of water

Using solar power water and oxygen are easily recovered. So we are talking 0.62 kg of food per day. Two people 500 days equal 620 kg of concentrate with air and water recycling. Waste accumulates as carbon in the system. That is used to fertilise Martian crops

The dragon capsule is designed for up to two years up to 7 people. Two people per capsule and three capsules per launch to a Mars transfer orbit one way is possible. That's $15 million per person. 3D printing and soil processing to build Martian homestead upon arrival is within reach.

This is the decade we will return to the moon and begin settlement of Mars.

They're not mutually exclusive. With a water resource on the moon we will settle on the moon as easily as Mars.

Population was reportedly 7.125 billion three years ago. today, population is reportedly 7.411 billion. This is an implied rate of population growth of 1.322% per annum. Over the next 10 years population will rise to 8.451 billions by 2026AD at this rate. At that time 12,745 people will be added to the human population each hour.

Removing 50,000 people per hour from Earth to colonies on Mars, the moon, and the major asteroids, will reduce human numbers permanently on Earth over an 18 year period, after which permanent population levels will be maintained at a low level as desired; in millions of people;

Year Earth Off World

2026 8,451.00 525.96
2027 8,036.76 1,068.86
2028 7,617.05 1,629.23
2029 7,191.79 2,207.65
2030 6,760.90 2,804.70
2031 6,324.32 3,420.97
2032 5,881.97 4,057.09
2033 5,433.77 4,713.69
2034 4,979.64 5,391.43 -- population off world exceeds Earth's.
2035 4,519.51 6,090.99
2036 4,053.30 6,813.08
2037 3,580.93 7,558.42
2038 3,102.30 8,327.76
2039 2,617.36 9,121.88
2040 2,126.00 9,941.56
2041 1,628.14 10,787.64
2042 1,123.71 11,660.96
2043 612.60 12,562.40 -- populaton on Earth below 1 billion.
2044 94.74 13,492.87 -- export rate collapses due to low population.

Compare this rate to air travel today;

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pag...-12-06-01.aspx

Today, airlines carry 410,000 passengers per hour in 2015 and 165,400 passengers per hour over international routes. There are 3,825 wide body passenger aircraft and 1,026 wide body cargo aircraft. There are another 15,500 smaller aircraft owned by 800 scheduled airliners around the world.

So 50,000 per hour is less than 1/3rd the international traffic today and 1/8th the commercial airline travel today.

How will people be supported off world?

By automated AI that self replicates.

Self replicating machine systems will be used to transforms the environments of the moon, Mars and the major asteroids,

http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRepNASA.html

Here are the materials available:

http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/nlsc2008/pdf/2116.pdf

Mars 6.39x10^23 kg 6778 km diam 1.5237 AU 5.027 km/sec 14.1778 km depth = Ceres mass
Moon 7.34x10^22 kg 3474 km diam 1.000 AU 2.380 km/sec 3.1660 km/depth = Ceres mass
Ceres 8.95x10^20 kg 950 km diam 2.7675 AU 0.510 km/sec 1 Ceres Mass
Vesta 2.95x10^20 kg 525 km diam 2.3618 AU 0.360 km/sec 32.96% Ceres Mass
Pallas 2.10x10^20 kg 512 km diam 2.7716 AU 0.330 km/sec 23.46% Ceres Mass
Hygeia 8.67x10^19 kg 500 km diam 3.1421 AU 0.210 km/sec 9.68% Ceres Mass

It takes 69.6 doubling periods to grow from 1 kg mass to the Mass of Ceres. So, a 1 second doubling time using a controlled fusion reaction would take little more than a minute to complete the reaction!

There are 7 parts per billion of Lithium, and 7.5% of that total is the easily fissioned isotope Lithium-6 which forms an alpha particle and a tritium particle along with 4.8 MeV after absorbing a neutron. This tritium particle easily has sufficient energy to fuse with a deuterium nucleus to create another helium particle and a neutron again, releasing 17.6 MeV. This combination, called the Jetter Cycle and is aneutronic. This process is used to fuse other materials as well. D+T and D+D. Neutron flux can be used to fission Thorium or Uranium as desired as well, or cause Boron to undergo aneutronic fusion as well.

Hydrogen including deuterium is super-abundant compared to Lithium-6.

http://www.space.com/17680-giant-ast...pacecraft.html

Initiating a fusion reaction that reduces a well defined volume of material to elemental plasma, and then extracting materials from the plasma created in this way via time of flight mass spectrometry, and using additive manufacturing to re-assemble those materials into anything desired, is a process whereby self-replicating machines can quickly operate throughout these bodies to produce anything required of them.

This rapid transformation of lifeless objects to life bearing worlds was portrayed in a 1986 sci-fi film as follows;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM1r37zIBOQ

Of course in addition to transforming the surface of a planet, the interior of the planet may be processed as well, and material ejected from the world to create large colonies in a parallel orbit around the Sun.

Here's the energy it takes to eject a kg off world

Mars: 25.2707 MJ/kg
Moon; 5.6644 MJ/kg
Ceres: 0.2601 MJ/kg
Vesta: 0.1296 MJ/kg
Pallas: 0.1089 MJ/kg
Hygeia:0.0441 MJ/kg

This all compares favourably with 15 MJ/kg to reduce materials to elemental atoms and recombine them.

Open air haibtats were first engineered in 1997 by Forrest Bishop

http://www.iase.cc/openair.htm

A square meter of colony masses 100,000 kg. So dividing this figure into the mass of Ceres results in 17.55 Earth areas, which are comprised of 2,723 colonies each about the area of India, or 3.29 million sq km each.

Mars, the Moon, Ceres, each have a grand total of 8,171 colonies which rise to 9,968 colonies when the major asteroids are added to the total. In 2044 AD total population at each colony is 1,353,620 persons each occupying 2.43 square kilometers of habitable area. 600 acres per person. An extended family of 13 persons would occupy an area equivalent to the Biltmore Estate.

http://www.smithsonianchannel.com/vi...e-estate/14380

Here's the break-down;

Mars: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit 1.5237 AU
Moon: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit around Earth Sol L1 & L2
Ceres: 2,723 colonies - in solar orbit 2.7675 AU
Vesta 897 colonies - in solar orbit 2.3618 AU
Pallas 639 colonies - in solar orbit 2.7716 AU
Hygeia 263 colonies - in solar orbit 3.1421 AU


Vis Viva equation gives us the velocity of objects in an orbit;

V =sqrt( 2/r - 1/a)

Where V is the velocity and r is the position of the object and a is the semi-major axis of the orbit. Now the Earth takes 1 year to travel around the sun in 1 AU with this formula. To convert to km/sec we need to know the length of a AU in kilometers and the number of seconds in a year. So we take the length of AU in km as the radius of a circle and calculate the circumference and divide that length by the number of seocnds in a year. This gives you the average speed of the Earth in km/sec - which is 29.785 km/sec.. This allows you to convert the values obtained for the transfer orbits from Earth to Mars and the asteroids.

A minimum energy orbit requires the following transfer times;

Mars - 259 days
Moon 4 days
Ceres 472 days
Vesta 398 days
Pallas 473 days
Hygeia 545 days

At constant 1 gee boost;

Mars 2.07 days to 4.54 days
Moon 3.75 hours
Ceres 3.80 days to 5.55 days
Vesta 3.34 days to 5.24 days
Pallas 3.81 days to 5.55 days
Hygeia 4.18 days to 5.82 days

The upper stage of the Falcon Heavy can put 16,000 kg into a Moon transfer velocity. Smaller amounts can be sent one way to the major asteroids, or to Mars, using the same stage, at the same cost.

We take a bit of astronomy, Kepler's laws, and the Vis Viva equation to determine delta vee as follows;

Mars
Semi-major Axis: 1.52370 AU
Transfer Orbit: 1.26185 AU
Transfer Time: 0.70870 Years
Transfer Time: 258.8712 Days
delta-V.......... 0.0989 Earth velocity
delta V.......... 2.9448 km/sec
Surface dV.... 11.5807 km/sec
Mars Velocity 0.8101 Earth Velocity
Velocity at Mars 0.7212 Earth Velocity
dV at Mars..... 0.0889 Earth Velocity
dV at Mars..... 2.6490 km/sec (atmospheric braking)

Ceres
2.7675
1.7675
1.1749
429.1521
0.1976
5.8853
12.6521
0.6011
0.3961
0.2050
6.1060

Vesta
2.3618
1.3618
0.7946
290.2299
0.1250
3.7238
11.8028
0.6507
0.3354
0.3153
9.3913

Pallas
2.7716
1.7716
1.1790
430.6462
0.1981
5.9016
12.6597
0.6007
0.3964
0.2043
6.0837

Hygeia
3.1421
2.1421
1.5676
572.5741
0.2382
7.0951
13.2582
0.5641
0.4119
0.1522
4.5337


Knowing that we can now use the Tsiolkovsky rocket equation to determine useful payloads to each body;

Body................... Moon Mars Ceres Vesta Pallas Hygeia

Surface DV........... 10.85 11.5807 12.6521 11.8028 12.6597 13.2582
Orbital Velocity..... 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90
dV..................... 2.95 3.6807 4.7521 3.9028 4.7597 5.3582
Exhaust Velocity.. 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55
Propellant fraction 0.56 0.65 0.74 0.67 0.74 0.78
Total Weight........ 64.00 64.00 64.00 64.00 64.00 64.00
Propellant weight 36.12 41.31 47.22 42.68 47.25 49.85
Inert Weight........ 27.88 22.69 16.78 21.32 16.75 14.15
Stage Dry Weight.. 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00
Useful Load........ 16.88 11.69 5.78 10.32 5.75 3.15

Escape Velocity.... 2.380 5.027 0.510 0.360 0.330 0.210
Excess dV.......... 0.000 2.649 6.106 9.391 6.084 4.5337
dV..................... 2.380 0.300 6.127 9.398 6.093 4.539
Exhaust Velocity.... 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55
Propellant fraction 0.49 0.08 0.82 0.93 0.82 0.72
Propellant weight 8.25 0.95 4.75 9.59 4.71 2.27
Useful Load........ 8.63 10.75 1.03 0.73 1 .03 0.88

So a Falcon Heavy, can send 16,800 kg to the moon, and 11,690 kg to Mars, 5,780 kg to Ceres, 10,320 kg to Vesta, 5,750 kg to Pallas and 3,150 kg to Hygeia.

We can then use the escape velocity plus rocket equation again to determine delta vee to settle an object softly on the surface of these worlds. At Mars we use aerobraking and have very little delta vee to cancel. For airless bodies like the Moon and the asteroids, we have to carry a significant amount of propellant to land on these bodies. So, this is why the Falcon heavy can send more payload to Mars than the Moon.

A 500 kg self-replicating machine system that makes use of materials on each of these bodies transforms them along the lines described earlier.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM1r37zIBOQ

We then send more advanced vehicles back to Earth to retrieve native plant and animal species. There are 2891 billion tons of living biomass on Earth's land area. Another 309 billion tons of living biomass in Earth's oceans (according to revised estimates - this is based on the amount of carbon divided by 19.87% which is the average elemental carbon content of living systems). This is 6,274.5 kg per square meter. About 6.3 tons per square meter. Air totals 10.0 tons per square meter. Soil and water totals 20.0 tons per square meter. Structure 67.7 tons per square meter.

When cultivated in an appropriate environment life systems have the potential of doubling every three months. When cultivated as cells, cell cultures have the potential to double every three days. This comes from the fact that cell cultures don't have to waste energy growing roots, leaves, seeds and so forth. Nutrients can be synthesized directly to feed cell cultures, as well as plants and animals.

http://www.theatlantic.com/technolog...dustry/401177/

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chemistry-r...cratch-1492170

So, nearly 10,000 space colonies each the size of India are produced on these worlds in a matter of days, once payloads arrive at each location. Overall, 64.24 Earth areas are constructed and must be filled with natural living systems to replicate Earth fully.

We start with seed stocks, which double every three months when cultivated by AI. Overall, 205.6 trillion tons of biomass must be grown. Starting with 205,600 tons of biomass spread across over 8.5 million species, and then cultivating them to create a natural setting in balance;

ANIMALS - 7.77 million species (of which 953,434 have been described and cataloged)
PLANTS - 298,000 species (of which 215,644 have been described and cataloged)
FUNGI - 611,000 species (of which 43,271 have been described and cataloged)
PROTOZOA - 36,400 species (single-cell organisms with animal-like behavior, such as movement, of which 8,118 have been described and cataloged)
CHROMISTS - 27,500 species (including, brown algae, diatoms, water molds, of which 13,033 have been described and cataloged)

There are 23,000 varieties of trees. They take years to develop. However, seeds mass less than a gram, and can grow into trees massing tons over the years. Thousands of seeds are produced by a tree after one or two seasons.. So, despite these logistical limitations, in the right environment, even something as difficult and long term to grow to maturity as trees can double their numbers and biomass in short time periods, when properly cultivated.

It takes 29.898 doubling periods to grow by a factor of 1 billion. That is from 205,600 tons to 205.6 trillion tons of materials. With four doubling periods per year this means it will take 7.475 years to bring the colonies to fruition. Prior to that time, cell cultivation and direct synthesis will be required to support natural growth and living conditions.

3d printed natural analogues are also possible to quickly populate a region that is awaiting natural ecology to recover.

http://www.desamanera.com/blog/19/en...tive-solutions

This same process is used - with 4d printing (utility fog) to create synthetic forests that are gradually replaced with natural forests.

Prior to this time, the same approach to self-replicating machine systems is used on Earth to produce a 'world city' people are welcome to live in prior to the deployment of off world colonies.

So, to export 525.96 million people per year for 18 years, we must start in 2020 AD to develop the colonies involved. In 2020 AD human numbers will be 7.81 billion. Building a city this size in the center of the Gilbert Desert of Australia, with the same density as Monaco, implies an area 763 km in diameter, South of Alice Springs in the Northern Territory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu_elkk3hx8

Here, you basically dig a channel from the Great Australia Bight from the South, the Arafura Sea from the North, the Tasman Sea from the East to create a spiral that permits basically a 223,143 km long channel that surrounds a 223,143 km long peninsula that supports 7.81 billion residents in the lap of automated luxury.

From here they depart for the off-world colonies under development, after learning all the things they need to learn the habits of the new lifestyle afforded them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpSJh1EqeUQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JModZfnVAv4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mc66-uEkEBk


Transport is through an automated drone tail sitter that operates at 600 kph. So, it takes 38 minutes to fly from the rim to the city center. A world city.

You call a vehicle with your cell phone, with GPS activated. You have already indicated your destination in the navigation app. Very similar to navigation apps today, like Google Maps or Uber.

http://www.techlicious.com/tip/best-navigation-apps/

An available vehicle lands in an approved spot nearby, and flashes your name over the doorway as your cell phone directs you to the vehicle. Your cell phone acts as an electronic key that opens the door as your approach. You get in and the door closes as the vehicle ascends and takes you to your destination. It lands and you leave the craft. The craft is available for another trip for another party immediately.

To avoid collisions the system flies vertically until it clears the highest ground obstacle. It then accelerates, moving North at increasing speed with altitude. When it reaches a horizontal speed of 600 kph, it then changes direction with altitude, going from a bearing of 0 (North) to 90 (East) to 180 (South) to 270 (West) to 0 again (North) at it climbs in altitude. This means that all vehicles are moving at the same speed in the same direction at each altitude. It is also child's play for the computer on board to calculate a path that takes you directly to the point you wish to land at, after navigating to and from the required altitude.

At two gees take off acceleration it takes 17 seconds to achieve a speed of 600 kph (166.7 m/sec) covering a distance of 1,447.2 meters. At 330 meters, the aircraft begins heading North along an arc as it accelerates. The cabin tilts to maintain gee forces through the floor despite the accelerations. It takes 30 seconds to achieve the altitude and heading desired for the flight. It takes another 30 seconds for the aircraft to come to a landing the desired destination. It takes 6 seconds to cover 1 km once at altitude.

Space Colonies

Each of the nearly 10,000 space colonies is an open air cylinder 2,000 km in diameter and 525 km wide. A strip of land 6,283 km long by 525 km wide. Each has 120 km tall walls with no roof. Over 3.3 million sq km of habitable surface area massing 330 trillion tons.

Each has a mirror that concentrates sunlight to a point where it is used to run a solar pumped laser, and mostly redirected by an optical system that reproduces the day-night cycle found on Earth. The size of the primary mirror depends on the location of the colony in the solar system - and are as follows for a 2,000 km diameter rim that's 525 km wide;

Earth Orbit: 876.2 km Mirror Diameter
Mars Orbit: 1,335.2 km Mirror Diameter
Ceres Orbit: 2,425.1 km Mirror Diameter
Vesta Orbit: 2,069.6 km Mirror Diameter
Pallas Orbit: 2,428.7 km Mirror Diameter
Hygeia Orbit: 2,753.4 km Mirror Diameter

The disk orbits with its spin axis pointing to the sun. A thin film mirror focuses the sunlight to the center of rotation. There a secondary mirror broadcasts the light across 180 degrees of the rim. Half the rim is in darkness. Half is in light. The lit area rises in brightness from 0 to a peak of 1000 Watts/2 at the center of the 180 degree arc, and then back to 0 - along a cosine curve. The central mirror which spins with the rim, achieves this focus spins around once every 24 hours relative to the rim.

To maintain 1 gee on the rim interior the rim moves at 3,131.54 m/sec to maintain a one gee acceleration radially outward through the rim. Every 33 minutes 26.4 seconds the rim completes one rotation. Letting the central projector drift around the rim every 24 hours reproduces the the day night cycle of Earth.

The illumination system also powers a sun pumped laser that beams energy anywhere its needed around the rim for any industrial purpose whatever. In addition, self replicating machine systems powered by compact aneutronic fusion energy systems, provide power when needed as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZn5k8_my_o

Actually we could start building it as soon as the Falcon Heavy becomes
operational:

NASA scientists say we could colonise the Moon by 2022... for just $10
billion.
What are we waiting for?
http://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-sci...ust-10-billion

SpaceX designed the Dragon V2 to be able to do Moon missions so don't need
the expensive Orion capsule.
And the Falcon Heavy especially with Merlin upgrades can do 100+ tons to LEO
in two launches, sufficient for a manned
lunar flight, so we don't need the expensive SLS.

An unmanned test flight could even be done to test the capabilities of the
Falcon Heavy on its first test flight, this or next
year.

Falcon Heavy to the Moon!

Bob Clark



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally, nanotechnology can now fulfill its potential to revolutionize
21st-century technology, from the space elevator, to private, orbital
launchers, to 'flying cars'.
This crowdfunding campaign is to prove it:

Nanotech: from air to space.
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/n...ce/x/13319568/
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"bob haller" wrote in message
...

On Friday, March 25, 2016 at 1:02:54 PM UTC-4, wrote:
"The European Space Agency recently announced plans for an international
moon
base. The agency believes they could start building the complex in 20
years, with
different countries focusing on their areas of expertise."

See:

http://www.techinsider.io/esa-intern...-agency-2016-3

elon musk will have a mars base way before that.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

In sci.physics Robert Clark wrote:
Actually we could start building it as soon as the Falcon Heavy becomes
operational:

NASA scientists say we could colonise the Moon by 2022... for just $10
billion.
What are we waiting for?

$10 billion without a better purpose?

Some rational reason to "colonise" the moon, which will never happen
as no Moon colony could ever be self supporting.



--
Jim Pennino

On Monday, April 4, 2016 at 5:16:04 AM UTC+12, wrote:
In sci.physics Robert Clark wrote:
Actually we could start building it as soon as the Falcon Heavy becomes
operational:

NASA scientists say we could colonise the Moon by 2022... for just $10
billion.
What are we waiting for?

$10 billion without a better purpose?

Some rational reason to "colonise" the moon, which will never happen
as no Moon colony could ever be self supporting.



--
Jim Pennino

http://www.spacex.com/crew-dragon

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ac ecraft.svg

http://www.space.com/31756-spacex-dr...est-video.html

Dragon has a dry mass of 4.2 tons and can carry 3.1 tons payload and 1.2 tons propellant supporting 7 people for up to two weeks, fewer people longer with its solar powered trunk.

The capsule has four Super Draco clusters that each put out 73,000 Newtons of thrust. That's a total of 29,776 kgf (65,507 lbf) thrust. On the surface of the moon this is sufficient to land 89,328 kg (196,520 lb) efficiently (or less).

The Falcoln Heavy can put 53,000 kg into LEO, but it can send 16,000 kg to the Moon along a free return trajectory. The reason you do this is that the LOX/RP-1 engine is more efficient than the hypergolic engine.

With an 8,200 kg capsule & trunk, this leaves 7,800 kg of propellant.

Another two 16,000 kg sent along side it in a separate tank, or tanks, that the capsule navigates and docks with after all three are launched into trans lunar orbit. That's all you need to do to land on the moon and return to Earth.

8,000 kg - 23,800 kg propellant + tank

7,800 kg - 340 kg = 7,460 kg propellant
2x (16,000 kg - 700 kg) = 30,600 kg propellant

38,060 kg - propellant.

Total mass is 16,000 x 3 = 48,000 kg

The exhaust speed is 3.1 km/sec in vacuum. So, the total speed possible to achieve with this setup is;

Vf = Ve * LN(MR) = 3.100 * LN( 48000 / (48000-38060) ) = 4.881 km/sec

Now, something coming in from lunar transfer orbit arrives at the surface of the moon at 2.3 km/sec. So, there's a total delta vee required to land of 2.3 km/sec, and to take off, another 2.3 km/sec. So, that's 4.60 km/sec total. With navigation, and landing on Earth, etc., that's another 0.281 km/sec.

So, this is enough! (we're not counting the 1.2 metric tons aboard the capsule).

So, all that's needed is a set of tanks with the ability to use Draco engines to automatically navigate, and dock with the Dragon capsule after being boosted as a cluster into TLI.

It won't take $10 billion to do that. It will take something on the order of $100 million to do that, making use of existing hardware already developed by SpaceX.

A self propelled tank with docking hardware.
A modified capsule to attach to the tank and make use of its propellant.
A modified trunk to attach to four tanks and make use of its propellant.

These all feed the Dragon engines which are perfectly capable of operating to land the Trunk and Capsule and all the tanks, on the lunar surface.

So, you have three launches - one with a tank atop the docking collar, modified to drain into the Super Draco Tanks. They are not connected during launch, but are docked together after being boosted into a trans lunar trajectory.

You have two more launches - each with two tanks in line. They are boosted along with the capsule and tank into Trans lunar orbit, using the three upper stage LOX/RP-1 boosters.

Four tanks connect to the trunk after TLI burn. The fifth tank connects to the nose after the TLI burn.

So the ship assembles during its trip to the moon. It then lands on the moon burning through 22,858 kg of propellant. It returns to Earth using the propellant in the fifth tank on top. There is a surplus of 7,442 kg of propellant. This can be extra propellant, so the ship could hop to different locations. Or to operate other hardware on the surface, like a rocket belt built around the smaller Draco rocket engines used for ACS on the Dragon.

http://www.wired.com/2013/07/lunar-flying-units-1969/

Or it could be used for extra supplies. Consumables, inflatable habitats and so forth.

Now, the cost of each launch is $61 million. So, that's $183 million for a full up test. The tank could be developed for $100 million. Each flight test is $61 million. So, we'd have

Creation of test articles & ground testing; $50 million
Creation of flight articles $50 million
Flight testing in LEO - one tank - $61 million.
Flight testing in LFR - (Apollo 8 repeat) - $61 million.
Flight testing in LEO - five tanks - $183 million.
Flight testing in LFR - (Apollo 10 repeat) - $183 million.
Flight testing in Lunar Landing - (Apollo 11 repeat) - $183 million.

That's $771 million altogether. If the boosters and capsules are recovered and reused, costs could be less.

Now, 7 people divided into $771 million is $110.2 million per person. The USA already spends something like $70 million per person to get people to the space station aboard Soyuz.

Dava Newman, who is a new Deputy Administrator at NASA, has said that for less than $100 million working biosuits could be developed. Their cost would be about $10 million per suit. This is about half the cost of the Shuttle era suits. More expensive than the Russian suits.

In any event, with seven seats on five flights, a total of 35 seats are available $22.02 million per seat to pay for the entire program. Suits are $10 million * 35 + $100 million = $450 million. Divided by 35 that's $12.86 milion per suit. A total of $34.88 million per seat.

This includes;

Space flight,
Space walk,
Appearance in prime time special on Discovery channel,
Ticker tape parade,
Appropriate awards,

and for those who return to the vicinity of the moon,

A notation in the history books,

So, how many people would pay $34.88 million per seat?

Tens of thousands prospective buyers. Thirty-five seats.

So, there's another thing as well.

By entering into an arrangement with SpaceX, one could enter the NASDAQ as a commodity, to trade seats. Each one has an ask price of $34.88 million - to issue them. They could then be trade on the exchange. This way, the entire amount for the entire operation could be raised virtually overnight.

Each person must successfully go through training, and testing, and those best suited are 'commanders, vice commanders', and so forth during the mission - and have special appearances in the videos and award ceremonies, as well as a consideration on their fee (up to $1 million in credits).

Once a market is made for this project, work begins and delivery takes place within five years, at no added costs.

Once we have the capacity, we have the rights of first refusal to issue new seats under similar circumstances to meet the needs of the market. This time, the advance sale could be as little as the six months training and testing time. We could also have stand by seats available as well, if someone cannot make for any reason the seat they've paid for. There's also insurance and so forth, to cover this sort of thing.

SpaceX could do this TODAY!

Recurring trips to the moon would cost $183 million - or less with reusables - and $10 million per suit - if they want to keep the suit - less if they don't. A total of $26.15 million to $36.15 million for each added seat.

7 people per month could be sustained, with 36 launches per year.