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JimO writings on shuttle disaster, recovery



 
 
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Old July 11th 05, 06:32 PM
Jim Oberg
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Default JimO writings on shuttle disaster, recovery

This is a set of links to my Internet articles - most of them written for
NBC and

posted on their msnbc.com 'space page' - related to the Columbia shuttle
disaster and the recovery from it.



They are collected into four thematic parts:



1. Prior to the catastrophe - how some people claimed to detect a decay in
NASA's safety culture,

reminiscent of the situation that preceded the Challenger disaster in 1986.



2. The loss of Columbia on February 1, 2003, and the subsequent
investigation



3. The realization of the 'NASA Culture' roots of the disaster



4. The long effort to prepare for a 'Return to Flight' (RTF)







==========

Part 1 - Prior to the Columbia Disaster:



Two Years Before Columbia, Jim Pointed to Flawed NASA Safety Culture

http://www.jamesoberg.com/safetyandaccidents.html

In Scientific American, February 2000, he wrote:
"Many observers have been alarmed at the apparent increase [of failures],
which could be a symptom of deeper problems that could lead to more failures
in the future. . . . NASA will have to address its systemic weaknesses if it
is to avoid a new string of expensive, embarrassing and perhaps in some
cases life-threatening foul-ups."

In New Scientist, April 15, 2000, he wrote:
"Critics say that a number of accidents, oversights and failures in other
NASA programs indicate that other parts of the organization are stretched to
breaking point. NASA, they say, is repeating the errors that led to the
Challenger disaster. The consequences of a future accident could, also, be
fatal.. . . The cost of forgetting is now measured in hundreds of millions
of dollars, years of delay and public humiliation. So far, no more human
lives have been lost but the question NASA must answer is whether this will
continue."

Criticism of NASA's "Safety Culture" in the late 1990's

http://www.jamesoberg.com/102001orbitschapter8_saf.html

"Chapter 8 // The Mir Safety Debate, from 'Star Crossed Orbits: Inside the
US-Russian Space Alliance", James Oberg, 2002, McGraw-Hill, NY"



2005 February 7 // The Space Review:

What does a sick "space safety culture" smell like?

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/318/1

Personal memoir of the safety decay that was noticeable before Challenger
was destroyed in 1986 -- "In the months following the Columbia shuttle
disaster two years ago, the independent Columbia Accident Investigation
Board (CAIB) sought both the immediate cause of the accident and the
cultural context that had allowed it to happen. They pinpointed a "flawed
safety culture", and admitted that 90% of their critique could have been
discovered and written before the astronauts had been killed-but NASA
officials hadn't noticed."







==========





Part 2: Shuttle 'Columbia' and its seven astronauts

were lost on February 1, 2003



February 3, 2003 // USA Today

Past disasters show NASA can learn and endure

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...rg-oberg_x.htm

"..It remains to be seen whether this was a true, unavoidable accident or
the consequence of human errors that NASA should have known how to avoid.
If, as with the two earlier tragedies, this was not an accident, and if
handled right, then we can get the space program back on track."



2003 Feb 09

Corrosion suggested in shuttle crash

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3077582/

"Undetected corrosion that had weakened Columbia's left wing could be the
still-sought "missing link" between the otherwise-harmless debris impact
during launch and the eventual vehicle loss during descent, a veteran
shuttle engineer claims."



2003 Feb 18

Could shuttle crew have been saved? What might NASA have tried?

http://www.msnbc.com/news/874274.asp?0cv=TA01

"As hindsights and "what-ifs" about the Columbia disaster continue to
accumulate, questions just won't go away about what, if anything, NASA might
have been able to do to prevent the catastrophe had it known in advance how
bad was the damage to the wing."



2003 Feb. 20

Columbia's final readings deciphered

Data analysis sheds new light on problems before breakup

MSNBC STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS

"The final seconds of flight data from the space shuttle Columbia,
transmitted even after contact was lost with Mission Control, indicate that
the crew members were likely aware they were in serious trouble, NBC News
reported Thursday."



Feb. 25

Analysis hints at shuttle's last seconds

http://www.msnbc.com/news/875772.asp?0dm=T218T

"New analysis of the garbled last 32 seconds of radio signals from the space
shuttle Columbia has raised the possibility that the crew survived up to a
minute after the spaceship began tumbling out of control and breaking up.
This reconstruction of the tragic end of the mission on Feb. 1 contrasts
sharply with most preliminary assessments that the craft disintegrated
suddenly and totally."



Feb. 28

A patchwork plan for space rescue

'What-if' scenario might have employed payloads and second shuttle for
survival

http://www.msnbc.com/news/878887.asp?0cv=CB10

"The dramatic video from the flight deck of the space shuttle Columbia, shot
just minutes before it was destroyed, has sparked new interest in a nagging
question: What could NASA have dreamed up to save the astronauts?"



March 2003 // IEEE Spectrum magazine// pp. 22-24

Commentary: The Shuttle Puzzle [written Feb 5, 2003] -- Will the Columbia
catastrophe prove to have been an "accident" in the strict sense of the
word?

http://www.jamesoberg.com/02052003columbiaaccident.html

"One word I've never applied to the Challenger shuttle disaster in 1986 is
"accident". I consistently call it a "consequence", and when asked, detail
the reasons why it should be considered a preventable result of a string of
bad human choices. The wrongness of those choices ought to have been known
when they were being made, since they clearly violated classic principles of
sound engineering judgment."



March 16

Shuttle probe follows a trail of data

Detailed timeline of last moments could shed light on causes

http://www.msnbc.com/news/886243.asp

"Investigators looking into the loss of the shuttle Columbia and its seven
astronauts on Feb. 1 are putting the finishing touches on the collection of
raw data from the final moments of flight. Now their analysis is shifting to
interpreting those findings and "walking back" the reconstruction of these
events to try to find the cause of the catastrophe."



March 18

Was 'mystery object' a shuttle clue?
Investigators paying more attention to radar blip on 2nd day

http://www.msnbc.com/news/887192.asp?0cv=TA01

"Frustrated investigators of the Columbia tragedy are still trying to find a
connection between apparently minor launch damage to the shuttle's wing and
the subsequent failure of that wing on return to Earth. They are now paying
more attention to one potential gap-bridging clue, and some observers are
dismayed that the clue was not recognized soon enough to do some good for
the doomed shuttle and its crew. This clue is the small "mystery object"
that apparently detached itself from the shuttle after about 24 hours in
space, on Jan. 17."



March 27

High-tech sensor in the shuttle search

Military imaging system may be withdrawn from debris hunt

http://www.msnbc.com/news/891627.asp

"The search for debris from the space shuttle Columbia is receiving valuable
support from a classified U.S. Army sensor program whose important role has
remained unsung, probably due to security concerns connected with the sensor
's primary mission to detect land mines in combat zones such as Iraq.
However, the future of this effort is now in doubt, and the equipment may be
withdrawn from the search as early as next week."



March 27

Tape contains mystery shuttle data

Technicians find new data from final seconds of Columbia flight

http://www.msnbc.com/news/867336.asp?0dm=T13IT

"A flight data recorder from the space shuttle Columbia, recovered last week
in East Texas, contains readings that continue 14 seconds later than any
previously studied data, sources familiar with the investigation told NBC
News on Thursday. Those readings are likely to play a crucial role in
determining the cause of the shuttle's catastrophic breakup on Feb. 1."



April 22

Columbia debris search nears end

Large-scale sweep to end this month, investigators say
http://www.msnbc.com/news/903924.asp?0dm=T22AT

".Seventy-nine thousand pounds of Columbia debris - about 36 percent of the
vehicle by weight - has been found in East Texas, according to the latest
tally. Much of the remaining material was not located in the three-month
search and may remain on the ground, or under it, in the search area. A
significant fraction of the vehicle - perhaps as much as 20 percent,
according to some experts - was pulverized or burned up in the tremendous
heating that accompanied the spaceship's disintegration."



2003 April 25

MSNBC.COM (Oberg): "Shuttle investigators are zeroing in"

But they haven't yet completed cause-and-effect links in tragedy

http://www.msnbc.com/news/905475.asp?0dm=T22AT

"Like two tunneling teams digging a railway route through a mountain from
opposite sides and aiming to meet "close enough" in the middle, groups of
space shuttle accident investigators have created two very credible chains
of evidence - but the critical juncture still eludes them."



April 30

NASA mulls in-space options for shuttle repairs

Top strategies described in internal report

http://www.msnbc.com/news/906456.asp?0dm=C22BT

"Throughout the investigation of the Columbia disaster, the question of why
the shuttle astronauts had so little ability to inspect and repair the
exterior of their own spacecraft has never gone away. So even as the
independent investigation board has been narrowing down the exact cause of
the Feb. 1 tragedy, NASA engineers have been working to solve the inspection
and repair issues."



May 12

USA Today (Oberg): Space officials can't dismiss shuttle caution signs

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...12-oberg_x.htm

"Little more than three months ago, seven astronauts paid with their lives
to remind space officials that spaceflight is unforgiving. Tolerance of any
level of malfunction is a recipe for eventual disaster. Now it appears that
this lesson still hasn't soaked into the consciousness of some top
officials."



May 23

Shuttle 'what-ifs' raise bigger issues

Chairman hints that rescue scenario sparks 'ominous' questions about NASA
leadership

http://www.msnbc.com/news/917615.asp?0dm=T22AT

"A NASA study demanded by the independent board investigating the Columbia
disaster has confirmed earlier assessments that technically there was a
fighting chance to save the seven astronauts, if only management had been
aware of their mortal danger in time. Although most commentators have
focused on the Hollywood-style details of the theoretical rescue mission,
the board's chairman seemed much more interested in what the failure to
exercise this option implied about NASA's leadership."



June 2

NASA wrestles over timeline for shuttle flights
Dates under debate range from December to mid-2004

http://www.msnbc.com/news/921030.asp?0dm=C22DT
"More than four months after the Columbia catastrophe and the grounding of
the three remaining space shuttles, NASA officials are wrestling with the
question of when flights can resume. Estimates and guesses range from "the
end of the year" through mid-2004."





Part 3: The Realization of the 'NASA Culture' roots of the disaster



July 8

"The Hole in NASA's Safety Culture".

http://www.msnbc.com/news/936070.asp?0cv=CB20

"The foam impact test on Monday that left a gaping hole in a simulated space
shuttle wing also graphically unveiled the gaping hole in NASA's safety
culture. Even without any test data to support them, NASA's best engineers
who were examining potential damage from the foam impact during Columbia's
launch made convenient assumptions. Nobody in the NASA management chain ever
asked any tough questions about the justification for these feel-good
fantasies."



July 10

Shuttles to fly no earlier than March

NASA revises timeline for return to flight

"The space shuttle fleet will return to flight no earlier than next March,
more than a year after Columbia's loss, according to a revised NASA timeline
obtained by MSNBC.com Wednesday. Earlier timelines had indicated flights
might resume as early as December, but most experts never expected the space
agency to meet that schedule."



July 23

Post-Columbia NASA hunkers down

http://www.msnbc.com/news/943305.asp?0dm=C219T

Officials' view of shortcomings is a bad omen for future clash

"NASA spaceflight operations officials argued Tuesday that the loss of the
space shuttle Columbia was nobody's fault, and that they couldn't have done
anything wrong because of their pure intentions. They couldn't think of
anything they did wrong, but they also promised to do better in the future."



2003 July 30 // USA Today

Costly astronauts wield too much clout

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...30-oberg_x.htm

"A recent NASA inspector general's report criticized the inefficient use of
highly trained astronauts. It confirmed the view of many space workers that
there are too many - perhaps twice as many - astronauts than are really
needed, costing the program too much money."



August 21, 2003 // USA TODAY

NASA REQUIRES OVERHAUL AT THE TOP,

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...20-oberg_x.htm

"As NASA prepares to respond to the sweeping criticisms contained in the
report on the Columbia shuttle disaster that will be released Tuesday, it
still hasn't caught on to the fact that merely moving managers around and
issuing rousing pep talks to workers won't be enough. New faces at the very
top - either in the administrator's office or in the close circle of his top
advisers - are going to be needed. Nothing less will be adequate to set NASA
on a course toward healing itself and regaining the nation's confidence."



Aug. 25, 2003 //

NASA's culture of denial

Real change needed if space agency to reform ways

http://www.msnbc.com/news/957144.asp

"Why did the Columbia astronauts die? To answer this question, the Columbia
Accident Investigation Board has gone far beyond the technical issues of
what went wrong. Harold Gehman, the retired admiral who chaired the
independent commission, has made no secret that his intent was to find out
WHY the technical decisions were wrong, and for that, his group has attacked
the issue of NASA's culture of decision-making. In fact, WHEN ASKED at a
press conference how much of his final report could have been written BEFORE
the disaster, Gehman thought momentarily and replied, "Probably most of it."
Why NASA - and its supposedly independent watchdog teams - failed to see the
patterns is still another issue of "culture."



Sept. 15

Expert warns of future shuttle woes

Suggestions in shuttle report must be made mandatory, panelist says

http://www.msnbc.com/news/967116.asp

"A member of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board is warning that
another shuttle accident could occur unless the board's "suggestions" and
"observations" are upgraded to mandatory recommendations and put into effect
before the shuttles fly again. The warning appears in a not-yet-published
supplement to the board's final report that was obtained by MSNBC.com.
"History reveals NASA has repeatedly demonstrated a lack of regard for
outside studies and their findings," the addendum states."



Sept. 18

NASA returns to roots for tile repair

Engineers coming up with shuttle fix learn from past tests

http://www.msnbc.com/news/968749.asp?0si=-

"NASA showed off its current ideas for in-flight repair of space shuttle
tiles this week, a demonstration that went a long way toward finally
explaining why the space agency canceled its first tile repair efforts a
quarter century ago."



Sept. 22

"NASA adds extra shuttle mission

Plans call for first mission no earlier than July, crew reshuffle

http://www.msnbc.com/news/970180.asp?0cv=CB10

"NASA is settling on a plan for the space shuttle's "return to flight" next
year, internal documents obtained by MSNBC.com show. These plans include
moving the launch date for the flight, called STS-114, from the unrealistic
"no earlier than March 11" into July 2004 or later. They also involve a
major overhaul in the mission objectives and the addition of an extra
shuttle mission two months later, to precede an ambitious rapid-fire
sequence of space station expansion flights now planned for 2005."



September 29,2003 SPACENEWS Page 13

Shuttles Should Keep Eyes Open In Orbit

http://www.jamesoberg.com/09292003eyesopen_col.html

"To minimize the chances of being blindsided by future disasters, NASA needs
to open all of its eyes. But one set of visual sensors still has not been
activated."



October 2

Shuttle flights may be delayed again
Sources say September is new target; safety concerns cited

"NASA mission planners are proposing that the space shuttle fleet's return
to flight be pushed back to no earlier than September 2004, sources told
MSNBC.com Thursday. The space agency said there were concerns about whether
the nose cap of the shuttle Atlantis was inspected properly for corrosion."



November 15 New Scientist magazine (London)

Shuttle Tile Repair Kit

http://www.jamesoberg.com/11152003repairkit_col.html

"Next to a giant vacuum chamber for testing spaceships is a semicircle of
tables covered with hands-on demos. Samples of rubbery pink "goop" are being
handed out as souvenirs. It feels like a school excursion to a science
museum, but the scene is actually a special media workshop to showcase NASA'
s efforts to get the shuttle back to flight."



2003 Dec. 2 // NASA split over space station noise
Incident hints at culture clash that shuttle probe didn't fix
http://www.msnbc.com/news/1000491.asp
"The loud crunch that startled the crew of the international space station
last week is still echoing through the halls of Mission Control in Houston.
And it seems to have sparked a culture clash between those who have learned
the lessons of the Columbia catastrophe, and those who apparently haven't."





Part 4. The long effort to prepare for a 'Return to Flight' (RTF)



2004 Jan. 21

NASA details new space goals to staff
Employee presentation stresses affordability of plan

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4018250/

"In a presentation now being delivered to NASA employees across the country,
the space agency is providing details of how it plans to implement the broad
new space goals announced by President Bush last week. The presentation, a
copy of which was obtained by MSNBC.com, includes a list of guiding
principles, specific program plans and details of budgetary rearrangements."



2004 Jan. 28

Shuttle manager reflects on mistakes

In letter to employees, Hale reviews vision and shortcomings

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4086918

"Marking the first anniversary of the loss of the shuttle Columbia and its
seven astronauts, a newly promoted NASA shuttle official has called on all
space workers to adjust their thinking in preparation for resuming shuttle
missions and going beyond them to meet the new goals recently set by the
White House. And in a break with past NASA practices, he explicitly listed
the mistakes he personally made that contributed to last year's disaster."



2004 July 19

The secret formula for going to the moon

Fear played a role in 1960s, and may do so again

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5380736/

"Over the three and a half years from July 1969 to December 1972, six teams
of astronauts walked on the moon. They went from "We came in peace for all
mankind" to the parting words, "We'll be back." But decades passed, and
nobody came back.."



2004 Oct. 21

'Murphy's Law' rules outer space

.... And NASA still needs to learn how to evade it

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3033063/

"In outer space, many earthly rules and standards don't apply. But if space
exploration has proved anything, it is that like the universal Law of
Gravity, the Law of Murphy also extends throughout the known universe."



2004 Oct. 28

NASA mulls early retirement for space shuttle

Preliminary studies look at off-loading station building to rockets

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6357772/

"Even as NASA gears up for the space shuttle's return to flight next year,
officials at the space agency are quietly studying the possibility of
cutting back its number of missions and retiring the spacecraft years ahead
of schedule, MSNBC.com has learned."



2005 January 8 // 'New Scientist'

2005: a tough year ahead for NASA

http://www.newscientist.com/channel/...g18524812.600*

"THE year 2005 is set to be one of the toughest for the US space agency
NASA. It must deliver on its promise to get the space shuttle fleet back
into the air by the middle of the year. With its international partners, it
must find a way to keep the International Space Station functioning with a
skeleton crew. And it needs a new leader, following the surprise resignation
in December of its chief, Sean O'Keefe."



2005 Jan. 26

Deadly space lessons go unheeded

Apollo 1, Challenger, Columbia tragedies have much in common

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6872105/

"At the end of January, NASA faces a triple anniversary of space
catastrophes: the three times that astronauts have been killed aboard space
vehicles. On January 27, 1967, during a pre-launch test, an unexpectedly
ferocious fire suffocated Grissom, White, and Chaffee. On January 26, 1986,
an unexpectedly brittle booster seal destroyed shuttle Challenger and killed
Scobee, Smith, Resnik, Onizuka, McNair, Jarvis, and McAuliffe. And on
February 1, 2003, unexpectedly severe heat shield damage destroyed the
shuttle Columbia and killed Husband, McCool, Chawla, Clark, Anderson, Brown,
and Ramon. As with the disasters themselves, this calendric coincidence was
created by the confluence of independent trends and conditions that
conspired to set the stage for disaster. But in each space case, these
impersonal forces were merely backdrop to the human decisions that through
their flaws were the immediate causes."



2005 February 7 // The Space Review:

What does a sick "space safety culture" smell like?

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/318/1

"In the months following the Columbia shuttle disaster two years ago, the
independent Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) sought both the
immediate cause of the accident and the cultural context that had allowed it
to happen. They pinpointed a "flawed safety culture", and admitted that 90%
of their critique could have been discovered and written before the
astronauts had been killed-but NASA officials hadn't noticed."





2005 April 6

Shuttle panel divided over NASA compliance

A case of late paperwork or something more serious?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7408590/

"After a week of private and often heated internal debate, the independent
panel appointed to oversee NASA's relaunch of the space shuttle appears
unable to complete its final report on whether the agency has complied with
safety recommendations."



2005 April 25

NASA managers insist books aren't cooked

Complexities of shuttle risk explained amid debate

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3053419&qp=48814

"Safety standards for the next space shuttle launch are not being relaxed
through mathematical manipulation, NASA shuttle managers insisted Friday, in
response to a New York Times article that cited internal agency reports to
raise that possibility. The managers denied that they were trying to "cook
the books" about safety tests in order to force a foregone conclusion."



2005 Jun 13 // The Space Review

Academic honors for a spaceflight prophet

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/392/1

[Re Dr. John Houbolt, who invented the Apollo flight plan:] ".unless today's
space experts learn to emulate his vision, courage, and soft-spoken
stubbornness, the grandiose "Vision for Space Exploration" plans for
resuming human flight beyond low Earth orbit may fail to be realized."




 




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