Innovative Satellite System Proves its Worth with Better Weather Forecasts, Climate Data (Forwarded)

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Contacts:

For Journalists:

David Hosansky, head of Media Relations
303-497-8611

Richard Anthes, UCAR President
303-497-1652

Ying-Hwa "Bill" Kuo, UCAR scientist
303-497-8910

Christian Rocken, UCAR scientist
303-497-8910

December 11, 2006

Innovative Satellite System Proves its Worth with Better Weather Forecasts,
Climate Data

BOULDER -- Preliminary findings from a revolutionary satellite system
launched earlier this year show that the system can boost the accuracy of
forecasts of hurricane behavior, significantly improve long-range weather
forecasts, and monitor climate change with unprecedented accuracy.

The set of six microsatellites, launched in April, is probing the atmosphere
in ways that have been impossible with previous observing systems. Dubbed
COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and
Climate), the system is based on a design provided by the University
Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR).

Initial results show that the system's unique global coverage provides
unprecedented information on the atmosphere's temperature and water vapor
structure. Moreover, COSMIC data can be collected above hard-to-reach
locations, such as Antarctica and the remote Pacific, which could greatly
enhance the global-scale monitoring needed to analyze climate change.

"COSMIC may well be the most accurate, precise, and stable thermometer for
measuring global and regional climate change," says UCAR president Richard
Anthes. "COSMIC can see through cloud cover and gather highly accurate data
through many levels of the atmosphere."

Harnessing GPS signals

COSMIC works by tracking tiny changes in the speed of GPS radio signals.
Using these data, scientists can now produce vertical profiles of
temperature and water vapor at more than 1,000 points over Earth each day,
sampling the troposphere (the atmosphere's "weather layer," closest to
Earths surface) and the stratosphere. By next year, some 2,500 profiles will
be produced daily. Higher up, the system measures electron density in the
ionosphere, an important observation for space-weather analysis and
forecasting.

In a test at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF),
scientists added COSMIC data to the other weather observations used to
kick-start computer forecast models. With the help of COSMIC data,
stratospheric temperature forecasts over the Northern Hemisphere improve
significantly.

Predictions of hurricanes and typhoons also stand to benefit from COSMIC. A
test involving one of the main U.S. forecast models found that the model was
able to predict the birth of this year's Hurricane Ernesto two days in
advance with COSMIC data. Without the data, the model was unable to predict
Ernesto's formation. Tests in Taiwan this year involving Tropical Storm
Bilis and other cyclones showed that COSMIC data can reduce errors in track
prediction.

A boon to remote regions

In Antarctica, weather forecasts that are vital to international research
outposts and other activities should improve, thanks to the wealth and
quality of data available through COSMIC. Radiosondes sent aloft by balloons
only provide a dozen or so profiles each day above this sparsely populated
region, but COSMIC provides hundreds of profiles.

"With COSMIC, Antarctica is no longer a data-void region," says Ying-Hwa
"Bill" Kuo, director of COSMIC in UCAR's Office of Programs. "After only a
few months, we see strengths and weaknesses in the forecast models that we
really have had no way of seeing before."

COSMIC data will also help scientists measure and predict the density of
high-altitude electrons associated with damaging solar storms. The altitudes
of peak electron density have been difficult to observe and predict, because
forecast models have had limited data on the vertical distribution of
electrons. "The many thousands of vertical profiles that COSMIC can provide
each day on electron density will be extremely useful in correcting the
space weather models and their predictions," says COSMIC chief scientist
Christian Rocken.

The $100 million COSMIC network is the product of an agreement between the
American Institute in Taiwan and the Taipei Economic and Cultural
Representative Office in the United States. COSMIC is known as FORMOSAT-3 in
Taiwan. U.S. support for COSMIC is provided by the National Science
Foundation, NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and
the Office of Naval Research. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory developed the
GPS receivers used in COSMIC.

Related sites on the World Wide Web

* COSMIC Visuals Gallery (stills and animations, print and broadcast quality)
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/20...cvisuals.shtml
* COSMIC fact sheet
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/20...micfacts.shtml
* COSMIC home page
http://www.cosmic.ucar.edu/