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#21
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Pat Flannery wrote in message ...
Rand Simberg wrote: I have some more commentary on the Gehman report, and why we should not build "the" next generation launch system. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,95930,00.html It's an interesting article, but I think that the analogy between the development of commercial aviation and space commercialization is stretching it a bit...back in the early teens and twenties it was snip *Shorter Pat Flannery* The relevent equation for X-prize is m*g*h The relevent equation for orbital flight is 1/2*m*v^2 There is a qualitative difference. *Bonus Shorter Pat Flannery* Transonic trains would have been nifty, if the whole flight thing didn't work out. __________________________ How close am I? |
#23
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Chuck Stewart wrote:
By the time you get to it you'll haveve spent a good portion of it. By the time you haul back a few thousand tons to Earth and safely land it you'll have spent most of the rest of it. By the time you get paid for the gold you brought back word of the gold's arrival will have flattened the gold market... and you'll be broke. Industrial materials in space will stay in space to be used in space by folks who work in space. And that's what a gold asteroid would become... gold foil, gold conductors etc. The only exception would be materials that are _only_ produced or procured offworld... that are wanted on Earth. All interesting analyses...blows my whole idea out of the water. Now, if and when we go to Mars, we can describe the cost in "solid gold asteroid" equivalents. I would guess the asteroid would be smaller, based on MARS being closer than the belt. Maybe I'll look at the current price of gold and the expected cost to Mars and see what I get in asteroidal equivalent. |
#24
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Joann Evans wrote: I seiously doubt that anyone would privately operate the shuttles on an economic basis. It would take a very rich individual, with a dream that concerns mankind's future....this is a job for Mr. Hugo Drax. Concorde barely cut it, in known markets. (albeit limited by sonic boom restrictions to mostly over-water routes) The orbiters just cost too much to operate. Mr. Drax would look beyond the bottom line when it came to Shuttle operations...just look how he turned around the fortunes of that small Venetian glass works; and his interest in preservation of endangered species of South American plants is well know. Patrick Stavos Flannery |
#25
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
In article ,
says... h (Rand Simberg) wrote in : On 29 Aug 2003 04:45:07 GMT, in a place far, far away, Pat Flannery made the phosphor on my monitor glow in such a way as to indicate that: It's an interesting article, but I think that the analogy between the development of commercial aviation and space commercialization is stretching it a bit endless graf snipped Good lord, man, do you ever hit the return key? That was frigging unreadable... My PC doesn't have a proper return key... in its place it has something sinister called "Enter"... I'm afraid to hit it, for fear that this godless commie PC will shoot a rectal probe up me or something... That's a special feature of Windows XP. -- Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup | |
#26
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
In article , says...
stmx3 wrote: Find a solid gold asteroid...then you'll have the killer app. Space transportation would leap a century into the future. Wouldn't work... The gold price would drop through the floorboards due to the vast increase in supply; a SciFi author wrote a short story about the devastating economic consequences of a solid gold meteorite of fairly good size falling to Earth, that leads to the complete breakdown of civilization- the story was called "Element 79" IIRC. But, unless China makes plans to plant a flag on Mars, there's not much out there other than the public imagination to give manned spaceflight a purpose. And that's mainly driven by romantic musings of the Apollo program. Hmm...Commie Mars...The Red Planet...should have seen this one coming. Pat (At least not going to sleep by the light of a communist Moon.) No, but going to sleep by the light of a Communist Mars? Well, that would be a problem if you lived in Phobos... Think about it... -- Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup | |
#27
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Duncan Young wrote: It's an interesting article, but I think that the analogy between the development of commercial aviation and space commercialization is stretching it a bit...back in the early teens and twenties it was snip *Shorter Pat Flannery* The relevent equation for X-prize is m*g*h The relevent equation for orbital flight is 1/2*m*v^2 There is a qualitative difference. *Bonus Shorter Pat Flannery* Transonic trains would have been nifty, if the whole flight thing didn't work out. Don't forget "Cyclops"- the Big Bus. __________________________ How close am I? Closer than you appear to be in the driver's side mirror... Pat |
#28
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Find a solid gold asteroid...then you'll have the killer app. Space
transportation would leap a century into the future. By the time you get to it you'll haveve spent a good portion of it. By the time you haul back a few thousand tons to Earth and safely land it you'll have spent most of the rest of it. By the time you get paid for the gold you brought back word of the gold's arrival will have flattened the gold market... and you'll be broke. ISTR somebody mentioning a paper, about three or so years back, that took these effects into account, and concluded that such an enterprise would still be profitable under reasonable assumption (even about the cost of getting to the asteroid etc.) Henry? Jan |
#29
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
Chuck Stewart wrote: On Thu, 28 Aug 2003 19:50:07 +0000, stmx3 wrote: Hop David wrote: Find a solid gold asteroid...then you'll have the killer app. Space transportation would leap a century into the future. Chuck, please be more careful with your attributions. stmx3 proposed the gold asteroid, not I (Hop David). By the time you get to it you'll haveve spent a good portion of it. By the time you haul back a few thousand tons to Earth and safely land it you'll have spent most of the rest of it. By the time you get paid for the gold you brought back word of the gold's arrival will have flattened the gold market... and you'll be broke. Industrial materials in space will stay in space to be used in space by folks who work in space. And that's what a gold asteroid would become... gold foil, gold conductors etc. The only exception would be materials that are _only_ produced or procured offworld... that are wanted on Earth. I agree with most of the above but believe there's another possibility. If an accessible, volatile rich asteroid is found, delta V might become much cheaper. The asteroid's water and fuel could be exported to a depot in earth orbit. Then it would be much cheaper to excape LEO. It would also become much less expensive to export stuff to earth from various locations. I happen to believe "The Killer App" will be an extinct comet (Nereus or 1979 VA? Maybe even Deimos - it possibly has interior volatiles and is easier to export from than Mars). Then when delta v is much cheaper, metal rich asteroids will also become Killer Apps. Hop http://clowder.net/hop/index.html |
#30
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Past Perfect, Future Misleading
On Fri, 29 Aug 2003 15:30:06 +0000, Hop David wrote:
snip much previous Chuck, please be more careful with your attributions. stmx3 proposed the gold asteroid, not I (Hop David). How'd you get left in there? I happen to believe "The Killer App" will be an extinct comet (Nereus or 1979 VA? Maybe even Deimos - it possibly has interior volatiles and is easier to export from than Mars). Then when delta v is much cheaper, metal rich asteroids will also become Killer Apps. Hmmm... iffy, but possible. Hop -- Chuck Stewart "Anime-style catgirls: Threat? Menace? Or just studying algebra?" |
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