Taking bets: next to fly in space

Henry Spencer wrote:
Everybody *except* the US government agrees that 100km is the boundary.
(The US government insists that there is no single boundary, especially
not one that was originally suggested by the Commies and which no decent
right-thinking American would agree to...)

There used to be no reason other than orneryness, but there's
a legitimate defense-related policy reason for the US to
not acknowledge a hard altitude limit anymore.


-george william herbert

"Ian Stirling" wrote in message
...
Explorer8939 wrote:
So, which will happen first:

Hmm, next new country to put a man up?

Japan?


LOL The Japanese have made the wrong bet. Instead of using old-and-trusted
technology they've had the 'plan' to leapfrog everyone with some sort of
hyper-advanced design made out of unobtanium, even though they've never
flown a man into space before. I believe the Chinese have made a wise
decision in using old Soviet style technology which has proven itself and is
relatively easy to reproduce.

"George William Herbert" wrote in message
...
Ian Stirling wrote:
Hmm, next new country to put a man up?
Japan?

In terms of technical readyness and capability,
both Japan and ESA are in good position to move
forwards into manned spaceflight. Neither has
an active short term program but both have been
doing R&D projects in the field forever and have
ISS components. With ATV, one might suppose ESA
has the 'service module' stuff almost ready to go,
if you went with a semi-expendable or two part
fully expendable system.

Ditching Ariane 4 was a mistake in that regard. I'm not sure what
Man-rating Ariane 5 would take.

The discussion earlier about India and Pakistan being
interested now... they're both a ways away.
That doesn't mean that they couldn't catch up fast.
The slow pace of China's program has actually been
somewhat confusing, unless they're doing it with a lot
less resources than they seemed to have.

"Ian Stirling" wrote in message
...
Explorer8939 wrote:
So, which will happen first:

Hmm, next new country to put a man up?

Japan?

Excluding the X-Prize, I'd say the Indians are most liekly to actually orbit
somebody.

"George William Herbert" wrote in message
...
Ian Stirling wrote:
Hmm, next new country to put a man up?
Japan?

In terms of technical readyness and capability,
both Japan and ESA are in good position to move
forwards into manned spaceflight. Neither has
an active short term program but both have been
doing R&D projects in the field forever and have
ISS components. With ATV, one might suppose ESA
has the 'service module' stuff almost ready to go,
if you went with a semi-expendable or two part
fully expendable system.

Europe is out of the question as any manned mission will eat up too much of
their space budget. Besides, the Europeans are mostly interested in science
and environmental satellites (for example the multi-billion ENVISAT) because
they're *so* concernced about the environment. I've also seen them mess
around with a capsule design (which was to fly on an Ariane 5) which took
forever to develop and was eventually scrapped because of cost overruns!


The discussion earlier about India and Pakistan being
interested now... they're both a ways away.
That doesn't mean that they couldn't catch up fast.
The slow pace of China's program has actually been
somewhat confusing, unless they're doing it with a lot
less resources than they seemed to have.


The Chinese were right about their assumption: only the first three nations
into space count. Who comes next doesn't really matter and will be regarded
as 'also-ran's'

"Dr. O" dr.o@xxxxx wrote in message
...

"George William Herbert" wrote in message
...
Ian Stirling wrote:
Hmm, next new country to put a man up?
Japan?

In terms of technical readyness and capability,
both Japan and ESA are in good position to move
forwards into manned spaceflight. Neither has
an active short term program but both have been
doing R&D projects in the field forever and have
ISS components. With ATV, one might suppose ESA
has the 'service module' stuff almost ready to go,
if you went with a semi-expendable or two part
fully expendable system.

Europe is out of the question as any manned mission will eat up too much
of
their space budget. Besides, the Europeans are mostly interested in
science
and environmental satellites (for example the multi-billion ENVISAT)
because
they're *so* concernced about the environment. I've also seen them mess
around with a capsule design (which was to fly on an Ariane 5) which took
forever to develop and was eventually scrapped because of cost overruns!

Well, there's a couple of things. There was a capsule which could fly on
Ariane 4 which was scrapped because nobody was interested. A mock up
eventually flew on Ariane 502 (i think)

There was also the Hermes mini-shuttle which was to fly on Ariane 5's - that
did get scrapped, although cost over-runs is ignoring the fact the damn
thing couldn't be built inside the weight budget avaiable.

The discussion earlier about India and Pakistan being
interested now... they're both a ways away.
That doesn't mean that they couldn't catch up fast.
The slow pace of China's program has actually been
somewhat confusing, unless they're doing it with a lot
less resources than they seemed to have.


The Chinese were right about their assumption: only the first three
nations
into space count. Who comes next doesn't really matter and will be
regarded
as 'also-ran's'

"Dr. O" dr.o@xxxxx writes:

Europe is out of the question as any manned mission will eat up too much of
their space budget. Besides, the Europeans are mostly interested in science
and environmental satellites (for example the multi-billion ENVISAT) because
they're *so* concernced about the environment.

Well, more because they're doing business and because launching their
astronauts on foreign launchers is much more efficient.

I've also seen them mess around with a capsule design (which was to
fly on an Ariane 5) which took forever to develop and was eventually
scrapped because of cost overruns!

What was meant to fly on Ariane 5 was a spaceplane, not a capsule. The
capsule you may be talking of was not only developed quite fast, it was
also only scrapped after being launched, re-entered, landed and
recovered.

The Chinese were right about their assumption: only the first three
nations into space count. Who comes next doesn't really matter and
will be regarded as 'also-ran's'

It seems to me that actually useful missions matter, not order.



Jochem

--
"A designer knows he has arrived at perfection not when there is no
longer anything to add, but when there is no longer anything to take away."
- Antoine de Saint-Exupery

"Dave" wrote in message
...

"Dr. O" dr.o@xxxxx wrote in message
...

"George William Herbert" wrote in message
...
Ian Stirling wrote:
Hmm, next new country to put a man up?
Japan?

In terms of technical readyness and capability,
both Japan and ESA are in good position to move
forwards into manned spaceflight. Neither has
an active short term program but both have been
doing R&D projects in the field forever and have
ISS components. With ATV, one might suppose ESA
has the 'service module' stuff almost ready to go,
if you went with a semi-expendable or two part
fully expendable system.

Europe is out of the question as any manned mission will eat up too much
of
their space budget. Besides, the Europeans are mostly interested in
science
and environmental satellites (for example the multi-billion ENVISAT)
because
they're *so* concernced about the environment. I've also seen them mess
around with a capsule design (which was to fly on an Ariane 5) which
took
forever to develop and was eventually scrapped because of cost overruns!

Well, there's a couple of things. There was a capsule which could fly on
Ariane 4 which was scrapped because nobody was interested. A mock up
eventually flew on Ariane 502 (i think)

What do you mean with 'nobody was interested'? Isn't Europe interested in
obtaining its own manned space flight capabillity?

Besides, it would have been quite costly to man-rate the Ariane 4 or 5, even
if they could have gotten the capsule to work. Besides that, there isn't any
political will to pursue European manned space capabillity. Now it's too
late because the Chinese have taken up the all-important third spot.
Whomever comes next doesn't really matter that much.

"Dr. O" wrote ...

"Dave" wrote in message
...

Well, there's a couple of things. There was a capsule which could fly on
Ariane 4 which was scrapped because nobody was interested. A mock up
eventually flew on Ariane 502 (i think)

What do you mean with 'nobody was interested'?

Could be he means "nobody was interested". Just a wild guess though.

Isn't Europe interested in obtaining its own manned space flight capabillity?

Hasn't shown much signs of it, apart from a brief flirting with Hermes.

"Dr. O" dr.o@xxxxx wrote in message
...


Europe is out of the question as any manned mission will eat up too
much
of
their space budget. Besides, the Europeans are mostly interested in
science
and environmental satellites (for example the multi-billion ENVISAT)
because
they're *so* concernced about the environment. I've also seen them
mess
around with a capsule design (which was to fly on an Ariane 5) which
took
forever to develop and was eventually scrapped because of cost
overruns!

Well, there's a couple of things. There was a capsule which could fly
on
Ariane 4 which was scrapped because nobody was interested. A mock up
eventually flew on Ariane 502 (i think)

What do you mean with 'nobody was interested'?

Apart from the French, there wasn't much interest from the other partners.

Isn't Europe interested in
obtaining its own manned space flight capabillity?

Based on purely emperical evidence, I would say no.

Besides, it would have been quite costly to man-rate the Ariane 4 or 5,
even
if they could have gotten the capsule to work. Besides that, there isn't
any
political will to pursue European manned space capabillity. Now it's too
late because the Chinese have taken up the all-important third spot.
Whomever comes next doesn't really matter that much.