When Shenzhou and SpaceShipOne beat Shuttle...

Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

-M. Scott
--
Direct access to this group with http://web2news.com
http://web2news.com/?sci.space.policy

"M. Scott" wrote in message
...
Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

-M. Scott
--
Direct access to this group with http://web2news.com
http://web2news.com/?sci.space.policy

NASA will not be publicly embaressed by either event, though it should be.

M. Scott wrote:
Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

First error is counting you chickens before they are hatched.

Second error is equating the shuttle with either effort. Shenzou
may fly before the next shuttle flight, but it's still 23 years after
the first shuttle flight, and something like 40 years after the nearest
US equivalent, Gemini. Same argument for Rutan - flying something like
45 years after it's nearest NASA counterpart, X-15.

This is taking nothing away from the Chinese and Rutan efforts. But
your take on it - fixing a system that has had 100+ sucessful flights of
immensely higher capability than those you compare it to, is really out
of left field.

Brett

"M. Scott" wrote in message
...
Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?


The 'return to flight' date of December is, IMHO, partially influenced by
the fact that Shenzhou will also fly around that time. Maybe NASA will try
to push up the date to make sure the Shuttle flies before Shenzhou. Let's
see how it plays out.

Ultimate Buu wrote:

[snip]

The 'return to flight' date of December is, IMHO, partially influenced by
the fact that Shenzhou will also fly around that time. Maybe NASA will try
to push up the date to make sure the Shuttle flies before Shenzhou. Let's
see how it plays out.

Don't forget the *reason* the shuttle is grounded. The last thing
NASA needs is the perception that it cut any corners to beat anyone just
now.

On Thu, 3 Jul 2003 10:47:32 +0200, in a place far, far away, "Ultimate
Buu" made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

The 'return to flight' date of December is, IMHO, partially influenced by
the fact that Shenzhou will also fly around that time.

I'd be very surprised if that were a consideration. The return to
flight date is driven by a desire to return to flight as soon as
possible, to get ISS back to "normal" operations.

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

"Extraordinary launch vehicles require extraordinary markets..."
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"Ultimate Buu" wrote in
:

The 'return to flight' date of December is, IMHO, partially influenced
by the fact that Shenzhou will also fly around that time. Maybe NASA
will try to push up the date to make sure the Shuttle flies before
Shenzhou.

Ludicrous. The December date is not driven by Shenzhou (or Beagle-2, or any
of the other external factors that conspiracy-mongers have come up with).
It is merely a placeholder date to keep the ground teams working until a
more realistic date is announced.

The only external factor driving the return-to-flight date is the
consumables situation on ISS, and NASA's desire to minimize the number of
Progress flights they have to ask the Russians for.

There is no way in hell that NASA will try to push up the date. It is far
more likely to slip into March or April, based on the need to fix the SRB
"bolt catcher" design, the need to remove Atlantis' RCC panels for non-
destructive inspection, the need to develop an RCC repair kit, and the
availability of daytime launch windows to meet the CAIB's ascent imaging
recommendation.

--
JRF

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"M. Scott" wrote in
:

Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan (and/or
some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

NASA won't be embarrassed by Shenzhou any more than they were embarrassed
by the Soviets launching Mir and Energia during the post-Challenger
standdown. I doubt the public will take much notice, either. It means the
Chinese have caught up to where the US and USSR were in the mid-60s, and
with purchased technology to boot.

I predict Sean O'Keefe will send congratulations to the Chinese when
Shenzhou launches, and to whoever wins the X-Prize. And he will most
likely be sincere about it, too.


--
JRF

Reply-to address spam-proofed - to reply by E-mail,
check "Organization" (I am not assimilated) and
think one step ahead of IBM.

"M. Scott" wrote in message ...
Hi everyone:

It's looking increasingly likely that the space shuttle will not fly
again until next year. And therefore both the Chinese and Rutan
(and/or some other X-Prize teams) will fly before NASA does.

I'm curious as to how you think this will play out. I'm sure NASA will
be quite embarassed; the real question is how will NASA -- and the U.S.
public -- react?

-M. Scott

NASA currently is under pressure and the USoA citizens are currently
being deprived of their morale by 'them', I don't know if 'they' wish
to put more pressure more by making more non NASA and foreign
organizations to launch people into orbit before NASA launch another
manned orbital flight.

Anyway. Should anyone launch a person before NASA, like that it
matters? If people said that orbital flights are routine, then it
shouldn't matter at all.

Fortunately, the USoA citizens have already pretty much taken a no
care attitude. So even if a non NASA launch happened, even if it's
another foreign one, the negative effect on the USoA citizens' morale
wouldn't be much,


As for NASA itself,

Well... I don't know. Currently 'they' wish to reform NASA, I don't
what kind of excuse that 'they' would use to reform NASA.

Besides, it doesn't matter on

it's not like Rutan or anyone else isn't funded by 'them', either
directly or indirectly, And NASA is also funded by 'them'.

Remember 'their' goal here is:

- NASA reformation, to adjust it to 'their' 'needs'.

- Demoralization of the USoA citizens, plus the whole world.

"EAC" wrote in message
...
NASA currently is under pressure and the USoA citizens are currently
being deprived of their morale by 'them', I don't know if 'they' wish
to put more pressure more by making more non NASA and foreign
organizations to launch people into orbit before NASA launch another
manned orbital flight.


I think that you over-rate the amount of morale boost NASA gives the nation.

Anyway. Should anyone launch a person before NASA, like that it
matters? If people said that orbital flights are routine, then it
shouldn't matter at all.


Umm, in case you hadn't noticed, someone already HAS launched people into
orbit since STS-107.


Fortunately, the USoA citizens have already pretty much taken a no
care attitude. So even if a non NASA launch happened, even if it's
another foreign one, the negative effect on the USoA citizens' morale
wouldn't be much,

Considering it's alraedy happened, I think you're right. It doesn't matter.