NewSpace rockets __ EELVs __ Ares-I __ REVISED Orion/Ares-I __ FAST-SLV __ chances of success

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EELVs, Falcon-9, Dragon, CXV...
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it's from the early days of the ESAS plan that I read on forums and
blogs LOTS of peoples suggesting them as possible alternatives to the
Ares-I, Ares-V and Orion, but, unfortunately, these are NOT real
alternatives NOW and could be used ONLY under some conditions
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NewSpace Companies' chances of success:
so far, they have NOT accomplished just ONE 100% successful orbital
launch, while, to replace the Ares-I, they must develop an RS-68/SSME
class engine and use it to build a 30 mT payload VERY RELIABLE rocket
(then, it can't be the Falcon-9 that has less payload and too much
engines to be man-rated) that should show a good launch rate
that effort needs very much time and money, so, they could succeed
ONLY if NASA will fail with the Ares-I or the Ares-I development will
need too much time (8+ years) as explained in my NewMars thread he
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=5390
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EELVs' chances of success:
the best success rate EELVs have less than HALF the payload the
(current design) Orion+LAS needs to launch, the, they can be used ONLY
if the Orion will be RESIZED down to a Soyuz-like capsule
the biggest EELVs on the market (Proton, Ariane5 and Delta IV Heavy)
have a likewise smaller max payload than necessary so, if they can/
will be man-rated, could be used ONLY for the orbital/ISS launches
(with less propellent in the SM tanks, 2 mT rather than 8 mT for TEI)
and/or a 30% resized lunar-Orion as explained in this article:
http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/010arianecev.html
launch the 30 mT Orion+LAS needs the development of a bigger, cheap,
safe, reliable and man-rated EELV that needs very much MONEY and TIME
(with many unmanned launches, to know its real success rate) so, I'm
not sure if a new and bigger EELV would cost less than the Ares-I or
could be ready to fly sooner
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Ares-I's chances of success:
in its current version the Ares-I's chances are LOW due to the
problems NASA must solve to develop and launch it and MAINLY due to
the (3-years/$3Bn R&D) 5-segments SRB and the (6-years/1Bn R&D) J-2x,
so, it could be ready to fly when many bigger EELVs and private
rockets will be already available on the market (from years!) at a
fraction of the Ares-I price!
the 5-segments Ares-I could increase its chances of success ONLY if
NASA adopts SOON (and modify for air-start) a ready available engine
like the Vulcain-2 as explained in this article:
http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/024aresF.html
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REVISED Orion/Ares-I chances of success:
(in my opinion) the ESAS plan has lots of mistakes, but "the mother of
all ESAS mistakes" clearly IS the TOO BIG ORION that (obviously) needs
a TOO BIG ARES-I
since all ISS and moon missions will have a cerw of 3/4 astronauts,
there is NO NEED of a bigger six-seats ("2045's Mars missions ready")
Orion but just a RESIZED 4-seats version (that needs a resized SM, LAS
and Ares-I)
this is the ONLY way for NASA to develop and LAUNCH the Orion/Ares-I
duo with a reasonable amount of money and within a reasonable amount
of time, so (maybe) it could be launched in 2013 (just three years
after the Shuttle retirement)
here some links about how to design a smaller, simpler and LIGHTER
Orion, LAS and Ares-I:
http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/019orionlight.html
http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/020newLAS.html
http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/022orionTPS.html
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(May 12, 2006) "FAST-SLV" (or ***SIMILAR*** August 2006 "Direct" and
January 2007 "Jupiter") chances of success:
MY (May 12, 2006) IDEA of a "FAST-SLV" (made with cheaper, ready
available and man-rated engines and motors) [
http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/005_SLVnow.html ] (or the
***LATER*** and ***SIMILAR*** Direct/Jupiter) could have some chances
of success ONLY if the Ares-I will fail, but, if NASA will have enough
time and money to develop it, the chances for MY "FAST-SLV" concept
(or the ***LATER*** and ***SIMILAR*** Direct/Jupiter) should be nearly
ZERO

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I've updated my Atlatis flight thread:

http://groups.google.it/group/sci.sp...845eea80bf2c8d

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"gaetanomarano" wrote in message
ups.com...
http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/010arianecev.html

http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/024aresF.html

http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/019orionlight.html

http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/020newLAS.html

http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/022orionTPS.html

http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/005_SLVnow.html ] (or the

Now you're sounding like a broken record. Repeatedly posting the same
"ideas" doesn't mean they're any good. Primarily, you ignore politics and
economics. That and your "engineering" is superficial.

Jeff
--
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a
little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor
safety"
- B. Franklin, Bartlett's Familiar Quotations (1919)

Jeff Findley ha scritto:
Repeatedly posting the same
"ideas" doesn't mean they're any good.

I publish the links to my ideas since I think they ARE good...

also, the number of posts on the web about the (FOUR MONTHS
***LATER*** and ***SIMILAR***) "FAST-SLV"-like proposal is (at least)
100 TIMES higher than ALL my posts about ALL my ideas!!!

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"gaetanomarano" wrote in message
oups.com...

Jeff Findley ha scritto:
Repeatedly posting the same
"ideas" doesn't mean they're any good.

I publish the links to my ideas since I think they ARE good...

also, the number of posts on the web about the (FOUR MONTHS
***LATER*** and ***SIMILAR***) "FAST-SLV"-like proposal is (at least)
100 TIMES higher than ALL my posts about ALL my ideas!!!

I think it's time to killfile you. You're not adding anything useful to the
discussions here with your repeated postings of these drawings and talking
points. You seem determined to make so many drawings that whatever NASA
ends up doing, you'll be able to claim that you thought of it first. Your
rants are similar to Bob Haller, except you have a web page.

Jeff
--
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a
little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor
safety"
- B. Franklin, Bartlett's Familiar Quotations (1919)

On Fri, 15 Jun 2007 16:25:16 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Jeff
Findley" made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

"gaetanomarano" wrote in message
roups.com...

snip

I think it's time to killfile you. You're not adding anything useful to the
discussions here with your repeated postings of these drawings and talking
points. You seem determined to make so many drawings that whatever NASA
ends up doing, you'll be able to claim that you thought of it first. Your
rants are similar to Bob Haller, except you have a web page.

Well, his English is a little better, despite the fact that he's
Italian...

"Rand Simberg" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 15 Jun 2007 16:25:16 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Jeff
Findley" made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

"gaetanomarano" wrote in message
groups.com...

snip

I think it's time to killfile you. You're not adding anything useful to
the
discussions here with your repeated postings of these drawings and talking
points. You seem determined to make so many drawings that whatever NASA
ends up doing, you'll be able to claim that you thought of it first. Your
rants are similar to Bob Haller, except you have a web page.

Well, his English is a little better, despite the fact that he's
Italian...

No doubt. His spelling is better too. If he posts anything really
interesting, I'm sure someone else will notice and post a reply, which I
will see.

Jeff
--
"They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a
little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor
safety"
- B. Franklin, Bartlett's Familiar Quotations (1919)

On Fri, 15 Jun 2007 16:59:41 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Jeff
Findley" made the phosphor on my monitor
glow in such a way as to indicate that:

"gaetanomarano" wrote in message
egroups.com...

snip

I think it's time to killfile you. You're not adding anything useful to
the
discussions here with your repeated postings of these drawings and talking
points. You seem determined to make so many drawings that whatever NASA
ends up doing, you'll be able to claim that you thought of it first. Your
rants are similar to Bob Haller, except you have a web page.

Well, his English is a little better, despite the fact that he's
Italian...

No doubt. His spelling is better too. If he posts anything really
interesting, I'm sure someone else will notice and post a reply, which I
will see.

Yes, that's the best policy.

On 15 Giu, 22:25, "Jeff Findley" wrote:

You're not adding anything useful to the discussions

I've OPENED the discussion about the chances of success of the various
technologies


you'll be able to claim that you thought of it first.

"FIRST" or "LAST" is NOT a matter of OPINION since we have a thing
called "CHRONOLOGY"

everything (especially on the web) has a "DATE," so, everyone is able
to know (by himself) what is "FIRST" and what is "LAST"

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On 15 Giu, 22:59, "Jeff Findley" wrote:
If he posts anything really
interesting,

I believe that know which rocket could (really) launch the Orion
actually IS "interesting"

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