X Prize go the way of the Kremer Prize?

On Monday on NPR Alex Roland of Duke University noted that both of the
Kremer
prizes for man powered flight were won by Paul MacCready. The last in
1988, yet were is MPF today?
Will the X Prize do the same for private manned spaceflight?

Al Jackson wrote:
On Monday on NPR Alex Roland of Duke University noted that both of the
Kremer
prizes for man powered flight were won by Paul MacCready. The last in
1988, yet were is MPF today?
Will the X Prize do the same for private manned spaceflight?

Roland made another point that was rather inaccurate, though.
He talked about the $20 M for the program and then implied that
suborbital tourism was unaffordable, ignoring the distinction
between development cost and per-seat passenger cost.

Paul

In article ,
(Al Jackson) wrote:

On Monday on NPR Alex Roland of Duke University noted that both of the
Kremer prizes for man powered flight were won by Paul MacCready. The last in
1988, yet were is MPF today?
Will the X Prize do the same for private manned spaceflight?

The difference is that very few people care much about man-powered
flight; that is demonstrably not the best way to get from point A to
point B. But human spaceflight is the *only* way to get from A to B,
for certain very interesting values of B, and lots of people care about
that.

,------------------------------------------------------------------.
| Joseph J. Strout Check out the Mac Web Directory: |
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(Al Jackson) wrote:
On Monday on NPR Alex Roland of Duke University noted that both of the
Kremer prizes for man powered flight were won by Paul MacCready. The
last in 1988, yet were is MPF today?

Exactly where MPF has always been... A fascinating oddity with no
apparent practical use.

Will the X Prize do the same for private manned spaceflight?

Probably the same as the other aviation prizes did; generate a great
deal of publicity and little else. (That's not to say publicity is a
bad thing, but rather that steak and sizzle are very different
things.)

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.

"Paul F. Dietz" wrote in message ...
Al Jackson wrote:
On Monday on NPR Alex Roland of Duke University noted that both of the
Kremer
prizes for man powered flight were won by Paul MacCready. The last in
1988, yet were is MPF today?
Will the X Prize do the same for private manned spaceflight?

Roland made another point that was rather inaccurate, though.
He talked about the $20 M for the program and then implied that
suborbital tourism was unaffordable, ignoring the distinction
between development cost and per-seat passenger cost.

I don't imagine Rutan plans to sell rides on Spaceship One but what if
he did? I imagine the greatest cost per flight is replacing the
hybrid engine. Anyone have any idea what that cost is?

In article , (Al Jackson) writes:
On Monday on NPR Alex Roland of Duke University noted that both of the
Kremer
prizes for man powered flight were won by Paul MacCready. The last in
1988, yet were is MPF today?

MacCready won his prizes in the 70s.

There was a third Kremer prize for HPF, won ((in IIRC 1984) by the MIT group
that went on to build Daedalus (1988), which still holds time and distance
records for HPF.


Bob Kaplow NAR # 18L TRA # "Impeach the TRA BoD"
To reply, remove the TRABoD!
Kaplow Klips & Baffle: http://nira-rocketry.org/LeadingEdge/Phantom4000.pdf
www.encompasserve.org/~kaplow_r/ www.nira-rocketry.org www.nar.org

Save Model Rocketry from the HSA! http://www.space-rockets.com/congress.html

(Bill Bogen) wrote in
om:

"Paul F. Dietz" wrote in message
...
Al Jackson wrote:

Roland made another point that was rather inaccurate, though.
He talked about the $20 M for the program and then implied that
suborbital tourism was unaffordable, ignoring the distinction
between development cost and per-seat passenger cost.

I don't imagine Rutan plans to sell rides on Spaceship One but what if
he did? I imagine the greatest cost per flight is replacing the
hybrid engine. Anyone have any idea what that cost is?

Looks like refueling costs, mostly. Possibly the throat/nozzle, which
may be useable for more than one flight. Apparently there's a
protective material in a tape/sheet-like form for parts of the
fuselage that experience the highest heat load on reentry.

--Damon

(Bill Bogen) wrote:

"Paul F. Dietz" wrote in message ...

Roland made another point that was rather inaccurate, though.
He talked about the $20 M for the program and then implied that
suborbital tourism was unaffordable, ignoring the distinction
between development cost and per-seat passenger cost.

I don't imagine Rutan plans to sell rides on Spaceship One but what if
he did? I imagine the greatest cost per flight is replacing the
hybrid engine. Anyone have any idea what that cost is?

Both you and Paul miss the point - but in different ways.

The cost per passenger charged for the flight must cover not only the
direct costs of flight, but the indirect costs and the overhead. It's
the total of these three items plus an allowance for profit that sets
the per seat cost. Essentially that means that in order to be
affordable the craft must not only have low per flight costs, but a
decent flight rate, and operational lifetime long enough to recoup its
aquisition costs without loading too great a burden to per flight.

Happily, this isn't rocket science. Any CPA can work the figures and
determine the cost per seat per flight, any decent marketing type can
set the price per seat per flight, both using standard and well proven
techniques.

D.
--
Touch-twice life. Eat. Drink. Laugh.