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Russian space program -- book chapter conclusions



 
 
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Old May 22nd 07, 07:11 PM posted to sci.space.policy,sci.space.history
Jim Oberg
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Default Russian space program -- book chapter conclusions


I'm doing a big book chapter for a DoD 'space power' book,
my chapter is on the russian program.

Here are my conclusions, and I'd like to open them up to
discussion, critique, and suggestions. The material remains
copyright by me, 2007, etc etc etc... and it's a draft.


Conclusion



For the foreseeable future, Russia appears committed to internationalization
of its main non-military space activities, mainly as a crutch in obtaining
services disproportionate to contributed resources ("For 5% of the
investment we get 30% of the resources" is a frequent comment in
justification of the space station partnership) and as a badge of 'major
player' status in the world.



At the same time, Russia shows no signs of developing a capability for major
innovation in spacecraft engineering or of demonstrating more than
lip-service interest in quantum advances in space operations capabilities.
Incremental progress has been the watchword for decades, usually not by
choice but out of necessity because all previous attempts at break-out
projects (human lunar flight, advanced robotic Mars probes, the 'Buran'
shuttle, the Polyus-Skif family of orbital battle stations) ended in
humiliating frustration.



Providing commercial launch services for foreign customers has provided
multi-dimensional benefits to Russia. Beyond the significant cash flow, such
activities fund booster upgrades and, in the case of converted military
missiles, fund validation of lifetime extension efforts for still-deployed
missile weapons.



Military applications of space systems remain uninspired, with critical
constellations (such as the missile early warning net) still significantly
degraded and likely to remain so for many years. Russian officials have
evidently decided that, despite any public posturings over US military
threats, there is essentially no prospect of actual hostilities in the
foreseeable future and hence little pressure to reconstitute military space
assets to a Soviet-era level. Russia retains an operational anti-missile
system around Moscow that, with hit-to-kill guidance, could provide
significant anti-satellite capability; it is also developing small robotic
rendezvous spacecraft similar to US projects that have potential
anti-satellite capabilities at any altitude they can be launched into.



Attempts at domestic commercialization of space-related services, including
communications, navigation, and mapping, remain seriously - perhaps
irremediably - hamstrung by the recent resurgence of a traditional Russian
top-down structure of authority. Bureaucrats are being ordered to implement
wider use of space infrastructure, and after many years of rosy reports of
progress, Moscow may realize that it is almost all, as usual, a sham.



There is still little indication of successful exploitation of space
discoveries and space-developed technologies (what NASA and the Europeans
call "spin-offs") as a means of improving the technological skills of
Russian industry. The space industry, as a component of the national defense
industry, remains strictly compartmentalized from Russia's civil economy,
and the resurgence of broad espionage laws (and several recent
highly-publicized convictions) will keep this ghettoization in force. This
in turn may require other government measures, from patent purchase to
industrial espionage, to acquire technologies that some Russian industries
may already possess but are in practice forbidden to share internally.





Russian space-related scientific and exploratory research, after hitting
rock bottom a decade ago, is showing signs of a modest rebound. Russian
space scientists may be able to resume making respectable contributions to
the world scientific literature in the coming decade, another ticket to
world-class status that spreads prestige to all of Russia's science
reputation..



But even if the main values of the Russian space program remain symbolic,
these symbols have computable value to the nation's self-confidence and to
the reputation of its technology - either for commercial export or as a
reflection of the efficacy of its weapons. The modest but steady resource
commitment to the space program reflects the government's assessment of the
degree of value, now and in the foreseeable future.



However, none of these intentions have much chance of success unless the
Russians find a way out of the looming demographic crisis that mass
mortality is confronting them with. In a society and an industry where
monopolization of knowledge was power, and sharing it often led to legal
prosecution, behavior must change, and fast. This must be done so that space
workers a decade from now, without the in-the-flesh guidance and advice of
the old-timers, will be able to draw on their 'team knowledge' that survived
the passing of its original owners and was preserved in an accessible,
durable form. The alternative is a return to the 'learning curve' of more
frequent oversights, mistakes, and inadequate problem solving of the dawn of
the Space Age - with its daunting costs in time, treasure, prestige, and
even human lives.




 




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