Spaceflight by 2020

Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?
My ideas:

Shuttle until 2012-2015
OSP capsules for ACRV 2008-until????
OSP spaceplane 2015-until???

Base on the moon 2012-2015
Mars mission 2015-2020

Commercial

Suborbital hops 2005-until????
Commercial orbiters 2010-until????
Commercial space station (1st small 3-4 person crew) 2010
Commercial space station large 2020-until????

Anyhow, I'm interested in the thought of others.

Cheers!

Bit

"bitflip" wrote in message ...
Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?

Limited to occassional probes of the planets and the occassional sat
launch - perhaps with a space station in orbit that makes very little
news. Kind of how it is now, only less.

bitflip wrote:
Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?
My ideas:

A low-cost launch monopoly controlled by Stirling Industries, whos reclusive
founder lives with his extensive harem on the moon.

Actually, this may take till 2025

--
http://inquisitor.i.am/ | | Ian Stirling.
---------------------------+-------------------------+--------------------------
'Where subtlety fails, we must simply make do with cream pies' -- David Brin

On 30 Aug 2003 19:25:01 -0700, (John Ordover) wrote:

"bitflip" wrote in message ...
Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?

Limited to occassional probes of the planets and the occassional sat
launch - perhaps with a space station in orbit that makes very little
news. Kind of how it is now, only less.

Nothing to look forward to then.



Christopher
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Kites rise highest against
the wind - not with it."
Winston Churchill

On Sun, 31 Aug 2003 13:18:23 +0000 (UTC), Ian Stirling
wrote:

bitflip wrote:
Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?
My ideas:

A low-cost launch monopoly controlled by Stirling Industries, whos reclusive
founder lives with his extensive harem on the moon.

Actually, this may take till 2025

Your ach rival will be Nightsky-Industries.


Christopher
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Kites rise highest against
the wind - not with it."
Winston Churchill

"bitflip" wrote in message
...
Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?


Well it might be nice to land a man on the moon in 2019.

Christopher wrote:
On Sun, 31 Aug 2003 13:18:23 +0000 (UTC), Ian Stirling
wrote:

bitflip wrote:
Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?
My ideas:

A low-cost launch monopoly controlled by Stirling Industries, whos reclusive
founder lives with his extensive harem on the moon.

Actually, this may take till 2025

Your ach rival will be Nightsky-Industries.

Unfortunately, I fear it's going to be more of the same.

There will have been several more failed space startups, and
some sort of Behemothian Shuttle II is flying as many as 8 or 10 times
a year.

I truly hope I'm wrong.

--
http://inquisitor.i.am/ | | Ian Stirling.
---------------------------+-------------------------+--------------------------
Things a surgeon should never say:
Better save that for the autopsy.

(Christopher) wrote in message ...
On Sun, 31 Aug 2003 16:59:37 GMT, "Dholmes"
wrote:

Well it might be nice to land a man on the moon in 2019.

Why not Mars?

2019 = 50th anniversary of the first lunar landing. It would be a
nice, symbolic occasion, I guess. It might be all we're able to
accomplish, the way that things are going.

I was having a discussion with an uncle of mine last year about the
future of spaceflight. We're both frustrated space enthusiasts. My
remarks were more or less as follows:

"I was born in 1968. I'm fairly healthy, and medical science is
improving steadily. If I was asked to place a bet on whether I would
live to 2068, I would give it roughly even odds. But will humans land
on Mars in my lifetime? I'd bet at least three to one against it."

My uncle's reply: "Yep. We don't have the balls."

Mind you, I don't think that we'll be wasting time, even if manned
missions to Mars are delayed beyond 2068. We'll have sent quite a few
unmanned probes there, from which we will have learned a lot. The
unmanned exploration of Mars will be a mature industry, perhaps even
be considered complete, by 2020. The information that the unmanned
probes provide will ensure that, when we humans finally make the
journey, we'll be better prepared.

I also expect a Europa orbiter, and possibly a lander, before 2020 --
both obviously unmanned. Finally, I expect some sort of space-based
optical interferometer to be providing us with crude images of
extrasolar planets.

None of what I've described requires a human presence in space. The
next 16 years of spaceflight belong to the robots. I'll likely find
myself satisfied with the science, on one level, and frustrated with
the deferral of a great human dream on another level.

--
John J. Ladasky Jr., Ph.D.
Department of Biology
Johns Hopkins University
Baltimore MD 21218
USA
Earth

"Christopher" wrote in message
...
On Sun, 31 Aug 2003 16:59:37 GMT, "Dholmes"
wrote:


"bitflip" wrote in message
...
Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?


Well it might be nice to land a man on the moon in 2019.

Why not Mars?


Three reasons:

1) Nostalgia and History ~ 2019 is the 50th anniversary of the Apollo. What
better way to celebrate the anniversary.

2) Pessimism ~ I am not sure we could do the Moon by 2019 considering the
current state of the space program never mind Mars.

3) Simplicity ~ Between the Delta 4 Heavy, the Atlas 5 Heavy, shuttle solid
rocket boosters and the new MB-60 second stage engine we should be able to
do it without any new technology. We would need a couple of launches rather
then one for Saturn but it should not be too hard. Mars needs multiple
launches of something bigger then Apollo.

Christopher wrote:

On Sun, 31 Aug 2003 16:59:37 GMT, "Dholmes"
wrote:


"bitflip" wrote in message
...
Ok, a question for the fertile minds in this news group.
What will space flight be like by 2020?


Well it might be nice to land a man on the moon in 2019.

Why not Mars?

Uh, because the Moon's easier?

Really. Assuming that a good reason were to be presented for it, it's
just tehnologically less demanding/cheaper/easier to get at least one
person to the Moon, than to Mars.

And therefore, more likely to happen by 2020.

Hopelfully though, if it were done, it would be some kind of
precursor to a larger, permanent human presence.

Mars too, for that matter...