High-flight rate Medium vs. New Heavy lift launchers

Not long ago it looked like the Medium lift market was
over-subscribed with Proton, Ariane-5, Sea Launch, Atlas-5
and Delta-IV. Now with the retirement of Shuttle and a
new plan for manned exploration coming into being, we've
got to ask ourselves:

1) Launch lots of medium payloads
or
2) Go Heavy

I've got to argue in favor of #1, hoping that the economics
of all these medium lift launchers will reduce the overall
cost of these plans. Standardize the payloads (a la the building
of MIR) and assemble what you need for each mission. Pay
companies for the results (e.g. fuel delivered to the right
orbit).

If one feels it necessary to go for heavy lift, can't we at
least think in terms of "Delta-IV Super Heavy", such that
our flight hardware makes use of the engineering and production
already in use (and that will stay around if the politics of
heavy lift fails)?

Finally, there is the issue of what expertise we lose when we
shut down a heavy lift capability (Saturn V, Energia, Shuttle).
Certainly we don't mind losing the cost of the standing army,
but are we going to lose the facilities for large fuel tanks
or recoverable strap-ons?

- Cris Fitch
San Diego, CA
http://www.orbit6.com/