Coincidence of meteor strike and close asteroid approach at same time.

On Mar 4, 12:17*am, Martin Brown
wrote:
On 02/03/2013 18:10, Brad Guth wrote:









On Feb 28, 7:27 pm, Davoud wrote:
Davoud:

The Air Force has no "meteor
detections capability," secret or otherwise, because the AF is not in
the business of detecting meteors, even if it does so inadvertently
from time to time.

Chris L Peterson:

Actually, the military has superior meteor detecting capability. The
DOD satellites that continuously monitor the Earth looking for covert
nuclear explosions provide some of the best data available on meteors..

So it's like I said, the AF is not in the business of detecting
meteors, even if it does so inadvertently from time to time.

There are various systems to detect airburst nuclear explosions and all
of them (exept the long range earthquake detectors) saw the recent event
over Russia. As did enough serendipitous webcams to get a pretty good
fix on the trajectory from civilian data.

In a sense they have to be in the business of detecting meteors because
the most extreme ones may give false positives for a multi-kT airburst.
The speed of a meteor compared to a ballistic missile means that it is
outside their normal tracking velocity and range gate virtually until it
hits the atmosphere so it is no good for advanced warning.

Arecibo is the instrument of choice for ranging and tracking suspected
Earth imapctors - as happened with the one that slammed into the Nubian
desert in 2008 - ISTR with less than 24 hours warning.

http://phys.org/news/2010-12-meteori...tial-body.html



--
I agree with almost everything that you have said and almost everything that
you will say in your entire life.

usenet *at* davidillig dawt cawm

In other words, our USAF isn't in the business of tracking an incoming
50 Mt nuke from Russia or any other nation.

The orginal BMEWS was reckoned to be good enough to see a barn door over
Moscow and the detection limits of the new phased array kit is
classified but you can infer from the bits and pieces of space junk it
tracks in idle time is very small. It was designed to spot any incoming
ballistic missiles although in the early days it also saw the moon!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballist...Warning_System

BMEWS site 3A Fylingdales was still running a Cyber CDC 7600 for data
reduction from the old gear as late as the early 1990's.

Regards,
Martin Brown

Apparently our USAF as to be informed of when, where and how hard to
look.

On 06/03/2013 05:40, Brad Guth wrote:
On Mar 4, 12:17 am, Martin Brown
wrote:
On 02/03/2013 18:10, Brad Guth wrote:

In other words, our USAF isn't in the business of tracking an incoming
50 Mt nuke from Russia or any other nation.

The orginal BMEWS was reckoned to be good enough to see a barn door over
Moscow and the detection limits of the new phased array kit is
classified but you can infer from the bits and pieces of space junk it
tracks in idle time is very small. It was designed to spot any incoming
ballistic missiles although in the early days it also saw the moon!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballist...Warning_System

BMEWS site 3A Fylingdales was still running a Cyber CDC 7600 for data
reduction from the old gear as late as the early 1990's.

Regards,
Martin Brown

Apparently our USAF as to be informed of when, where and how hard to
look.

BMEWS spends all its time with no incoming ICBMs cataloguing near Earth
space junk and determining its orbital elements and predicting re-entry
times and trajectories. Apart from running excercise training tapes that
means it spends most of its time cataloguing space junk.

The system is hot survey virtually all the time and will switch to live
track if anything that looks like an ICBM launch occurs in its field of
view. The new phased array slews very much faster than the old
mechanical dishes sat in their golf balls.

They are certainly good enough to track spanners and other tools dropped
by hapless astronauts. Photos of some items are online.

Regards,
Martin Brown

On Feb 28, 2:38*pm, Robert Clark wrote:
....
*If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since
it *has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the
fireballs *are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered
last year in February also during a close approach.
...

On Mar 5, 11:31*am, Robert Clark wrote:
Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable:

Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable.
Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32
http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/

* Bob Clark

Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v
would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?

This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two
Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of
millions.

This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it
perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such
close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.

For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be
expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a
large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this.
So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for
either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year.
Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.

Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close
time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods
begin piling up greater and greater.

Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical
phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility
arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may
be upcoming.

It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v
needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.


Bob Clark

On Mar 6, 12:27*pm, Robert Clark wrote:
On Feb 28, 2:38*pm, Robert Clark wrote:
...

*If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since
it *has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the
fireballs *are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered
last year in February also during a close approach.
...

On Mar 5, 11:31*am, Robert Clark wrote:

Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable:

Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable.
Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32
http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/

* Bob Clark

*Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v
would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?

This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two
Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of
millions.

This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it
perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such
close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.

For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be
expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a
large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this.
So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for
either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year.
Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.

Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close
time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods
begin piling up greater and greater.

Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical
phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility
arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may
be upcoming.

It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v
needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.

Bob Clark

Well aiming hazardous comets and asteroids at mars or other planets
may be a good way to get rid of hazards....

theres a theory the earth has a planet killer type event every 34
million years or so. A couple weeks ago I posted we may be entering a
littered part of space.

If we are near misses and impacts may become more common.....

And currently we have no ability to redirect hazards........

On Mar 6, 2:03*pm, bob haller wrote:
On Mar 6, 12:27*pm, Robert Clark wrote:









On Feb 28, 2:38*pm, Robert Clark wrote:
...

*If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since
it *has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the
fireballs *are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered
last year in February also during a close approach.
...

On Mar 5, 11:31*am, Robert Clark wrote:

Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable:

Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable.
Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32
http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/

* Bob Clark

*Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v
would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?

This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two
Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of
millions.

This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it
perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such
close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.

For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be
expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a
large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this.
So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for
either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year.
Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.

Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close
time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods
begin piling up greater and greater.

Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical
phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility
arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may
be upcoming.

It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v
needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.

Bob Clark

Well aiming hazardous comets and asteroids at mars or other planets
may be a good way to get rid of hazards....

theres a theory the earth has a planet killer type event every 34
million years or so. A couple weeks ago I posted we may be entering a
littered part of space.

If we are near misses and impacts may become more common.....

And currently we have no ability to redirect hazards........

The Oort clouds of Sirius should keep us on our toes for several
thousands years to come.

On 3/6/13 6:20 PM, Brad Guth wrote:
The Oort clouds of Sirius should keep us on our toes for several
thousands years to come.

No Brad -- Way too far away now and in the future.

On Mar 6, 7:20*pm, Brad Guth wrote:
On Mar 6, 2:03*pm, bob haller wrote:









On Mar 6, 12:27*pm, Robert Clark wrote:

On Feb 28, 2:38*pm, Robert Clark wrote:
...

*If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since
it *has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the
fireballs *are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered
last year in February also during a close approach.
...

On Mar 5, 11:31*am, Robert Clark wrote:

Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable:

Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable.
Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32
http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/

* Bob Clark

*Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v
would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?

This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two
Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of
millions.

This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it
perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such
close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.

For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be
expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a
large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this.
So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for
either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year..
Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.

Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close
time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods
begin piling up greater and greater.

Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical
phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility
arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may
be upcoming.

It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v
needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.

Bob Clark

Well aiming hazardous comets and asteroids at mars or other planets
may be a good way to get rid of hazards....

theres a theory the earth has a planet killer type event every 34
million years or so. A couple weeks ago I posted we may be entering a
littered part of space.

If we are near misses and impacts may become more common.....

And currently we have no ability to redirect hazards........

The Oort clouds of Sirius should keep us on our toes for several
thousands years to come.

Why just the Sirius Oort clouds? It has been suggested that the Alpha
Centauri system Oort clouds and ours already intermingle.


Bob Clark

On Mar 6, 5:03*pm, bob haller wrote:
On Mar 6, 12:27*pm, Robert Clark wrote:

*Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v
would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?

This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two
Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of
millions.

This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it
perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such
close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.

For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be
expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a
large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this.
So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for
either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year.
Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.

Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close
time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods
begin piling up greater and greater.

Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical
phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility
arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may
be upcoming.

It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v
needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.

Bob Clark

Well aiming hazardous comets and asteroids at mars or other planets
may be a good way to get rid of hazards....

theres a theory the earth has a planet killer type event every 34
million years or so. A couple weeks ago I posted we may be entering a
littered part of space.

Yes, you linked:

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/1985/1985_Stothers.pdf

This proposes oscillation of the Sun about the galactic plane over
time scales of millions of years as the cause. Other possible causes
described he

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinct...s_in_frequency


Bob Clark

On Thursday, March 7, 2013 5:51:20 AM UTC-8, Robert Clark wrote:
On Mar 6, 7:20*pm, Brad Guth wrote:

On Mar 6, 2:03*pm, bob haller wrote:



















On Mar 6, 12:27*pm, Robert Clark wrote:



On Feb 28, 2:38*pm, Robert Clark wrote:

...



*If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since

it *has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the

fireballs *are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered

last year in February also during a close approach.

...



On Mar 5, 11:31*am, Robert Clark wrote:



Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable:



Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable.

Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32

http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/



* Bob Clark



*Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v

would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?



This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two

Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of

millions.



This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it

perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such

close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.



For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be

expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a

large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this..

So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for

either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year.

Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.



Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close

time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods

begin piling up greater and greater.



Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical

phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility

arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may

be upcoming.



It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v

needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.



Bob Clark



Well aiming hazardous comets and asteroids at mars or other planets

may be a good way to get rid of hazards....



theres a theory the earth has a planet killer type event every 34

million years or so. A couple weeks ago I posted we may be entering a

littered part of space.



If we are near misses and impacts may become more common.....



And currently we have no ability to redirect hazards........



The Oort clouds of Sirius should keep us on our toes for several

thousands years to come.



Why just the Sirius Oort clouds? It has been suggested that the Alpha

Centauri system Oort clouds and ours already intermingle.

Brad is obsessed with the Sirius system, for whatever reason. It has been pointed out to him more than once that the Alpha Centauri system has about the same mass as the Sirius system and is about half the distance, but this means nothing to Brad.

I don't think that any amount of reasoning will persuade Brad that the Sirius system is just a run-of-the-mill binary star system that just happens to be close, and has therefore been the subject of much study.

\Paul A

On Mar 7, 5:51*am, Robert Clark wrote:
On Mar 6, 7:20*pm, Brad Guth wrote:









On Mar 6, 2:03*pm, bob haller wrote:

On Mar 6, 12:27*pm, Robert Clark wrote:

On Feb 28, 2:38*pm, Robert Clark wrote:
...

*If there is an association with the 2012 DA14 asteroid, then since
it *has approximately a year long orbit, this could explain why the
fireballs *are seen frequently in February. Note it was discovered
last year in February also during a close approach.
...

On Mar 5, 11:31*am, Robert Clark wrote:

Speculation here that such an impact could make Mars habitable:

Rush to Mars: Comet impact could make Red Planet inhabitable.
Published time: February 28, 2013 16:32
http://rt.com/news/mars-comet-tito-flyby-601/

* Bob Clark

*Assuming comet C/2013 A1 misses Mars by 37,000 km how much delta-v
would you need to nudge it to hit Mars?

This might not be purely of academic interest. Already we've seen two
Earth encounters whose likelihood together was one in hundreds of
millions.

This comet to make a close encounter to Mars is *huge*. To put it
perspective it dwarfs the asteroid that destroyed the dinosaurs. Such
close encounters to any of the terrestrial planets must be very rare.

For instance the puny, in comparison, asteroid 2012 DA14 would be
expected to get so close to the Earth once in 40 years. That such a
large comet would get so close to Mars must be much rarer than this..
So the chance is less than 1 in 40 in a year. Say it happens for
either of two planets; that's a chance of less than 1 in 20 in a year.
Say then it happens within a 2 year period; that's 1 chance in 10.

Now the chance of the three encounters occurring within such a close
time span is greater than one in several billion. The unlikelihoods
begin piling up greater and greater.

Then we are left with the disturbing possibility there is a physical
phenomenon causing these large, close encounters. And the possibility
arises there is another large, close encounter to the Earth that may
be upcoming.

It would really become important to know then not what's the delta-v
needed to turn a close miss to an impact, but in fact the reverse.

Bob Clark

Well aiming hazardous comets and asteroids at mars or other planets
may be a good way to get rid of hazards....

theres a theory the earth has a planet killer type event every 34
million years or so. A couple weeks ago I posted we may be entering a
littered part of space.

If we are near misses and impacts may become more common.....

And currently we have no ability to redirect hazards........

The Oort clouds of Sirius should keep us on our toes for several
thousands years to come.

*Why just the Sirius Oort clouds? It has been suggested that the Alpha
Centauri system Oort clouds and ours already intermingle.

* Bob Clark

Sirius(a) was one a very big sucker, and most of its mass is
supposedly still out there in addition to whatever planets, moons and
asteroids it once had a very strong tidal radius grip upon.