Making money (X-Prize)

(John Ordover) :

Second, most groups are a lot closer than before, they are doing test
flights right now.

Most groups are -not- doing test flights. Perhaps some are, but not most.

Right, I did leave out the word some which should be there, the problem of
your earlier claim that there is no progress is that there are test flights
now. So things are not the same as in previous years.

Third, I think you are really starting to fall behind the times, at the
rate you are going you still be saying it is not possible while people are
already up there.

Keep on thinking that. If it's true, that'll be great. But it won't be.

It is true, we only have to read your statement above and compare it to the
changes already taking place.

Earl Colby Pottinger

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(Centurion509) wrote in message ...
Mr. Ordover,

A lot of the points you raise about the "true demand" have some truth to them,
but I suggest you check out:
http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/t...blic_space_tra
vel.shtml

In it they describe the Futron space tourism study, and the level of rigor
involved
An excerpt: "To make sure that the [Futron] survey responses were believable,
questions were asked that allowed cross checking of answers, and comparison of
intentions with actual previous behaviors. For instance, there were questions
asked about attitude to risk. The wealthy respondents were asked if they had
ever done risky activities like mountain climbing, sky diving or skiing. Checks
were made about the duration and cost of previous vacations. Data was collected
on respondent age and health. Another test for realism made sure that the
respondents considered alternative ways to spend that amount of money-
alternatives that they were offered included homes, cars and yachts. Almost
half the respondents, incidentally, preferred to invest the money- an answer
that in itself gives a high degree of credibility to the survey findings!"
.

What people say on surveys and what they actually do are two different things.

I assume from the subject header that we are restricting our comments
to the X-Prize contenders and where they are right know.

John Ordover wrote:


Second, most groups are a lot closer than before, they are doing test flight
right now.

Most groups are -not- doing test flights. Perhaps some are, but not most.

Well, Burt Rutan is certainly doing flight tests as he just completed a drop
test of his unpowered space vehicle. In parallel, the propulsion system is
under ground test. If he is using only one vehicle, as it seems from the
reports, then there will be a necessary delay of I would guess 4 to 6 months
for propulsion system integration and some ground static testing.

It will be interesting for me to see if I am correct on this, as Rutan could
take some short cuts and do a very limited set of ground tests before
going on to powered flight tests. He could also do a faster job of
integration than I am presuming he will do.


Third, I think you are really starting to fall behind the times, at the rate
you are going you still be saying it is not possible while people are already
up there.

Keep on thinking that. If it's true, that'll be great. But it won't be.

What won't be true? Are you saying that no-one will win the X-Prize
by the date of January 1, 2005 or that no-one will accomplish the
X-Prize requirements after that date?

I am on record as predicting that no-one will win the X-Prize by
the given date of January 1, 2005. I made the prediction assuming
Burt Rutan would be otherwise occuppied by more financially
rewarding work, but I was wrong on that.

I am sticking to my prediction because many things could go wrong
for the contenders. However, if Burt Rutan sticks to his schedule
then I could be wrong.

Mike Walsh

Earl Colby Pottinger wrote:

(John Ordover) :

Second, most groups are a lot closer than before, they are doing test
flights right now.

Most groups are -not- doing test flights. Perhaps some are, but not most.

Right, I did leave out the word some which should be there, the problem of
your earlier claim that there is no progress is that there are test flights
now. So things are not the same as in previous years.

Third, I think you are really starting to fall behind the times, at the
rate you are going you still be saying it is not possible while people are
already up there.

Keep on thinking that. If it's true, that'll be great. But it won't be.

It is true, we only have to read your statement above and compare it to the
changes already taking place.

Earl Colby Pottinger

This will be difficult to determine unless both of you can come to
some kind of agreement as to what it is you are discussing.

Mike Walsh

Michael Walsh :

I assume from the subject header that we are restricting our comments
to the X-Prize contenders and where they are right know.

John Ordover wrote:

Second, most groups are a lot closer than before, they are doing
test flight right now.

Most groups are -not- doing test flights. Perhaps some are, but not most.

Well, Burt Rutan is certainly doing flight tests as he just completed a
drop
test of his unpowered space vehicle. In parallel, the propulsion system is
under ground test. If he is using only one vehicle, as it seems from the
reports, then there will be a necessary delay of I would guess 4 to 6
months
for propulsion system integration and some ground static testing.

It will be interesting for me to see if I am correct on this, as Rutan
could
take some short cuts and do a very limited set of ground tests before
going on to powered flight tests. He could also do a faster job of
integration than I am presuming he will do.

Burt is an airplane type of guy, and that automaticly makes him a coward
I am sure he will carefully test everything before risking a human in one of
his designs.

Remember what is said about:
1) Old pilots.
2) Bold pilots.
3) Bold, old pilots.

Third, I think you are really starting to fall behind the times, at the
rate you are going you still be saying it is not possible while people
are already up there.

Keep on thinking that. If it's true, that'll be great. But it won't be.

What won't be true? Are you saying that no-one will win the X-Prize
by the date of January 1, 2005 or that no-one will accomplish the
X-Prize requirements after that date?

I am on record as predicting that no-one will win the X-Prize by
the given date of January 1, 2005. I made the prediction assuming
Burt Rutan would be otherwise occuppied by more financially
rewarding work, but I was wrong on that.

I am sticking to my prediction because many things could go wrong
for the contenders. However, if Burt Rutan sticks to his schedule
then I could be wrong.

Mike Walsh

Well some teams are not talking at all, they probably are behind B.R. and
J.C. but is not a sure thing, the winner may pop up any minute (pun intented).

Earl Colby Pottinger

--
I make public email sent to me! Hydrogen Peroxide Rockets, OpenBeos,
SerialTransfer 3.0, RAMDISK, BoatBuilding, DIY TabletPC. What happened to
the time? http://webhome.idirect.com/~earlcp

John says there is no progress in manned private rockets, that he has heard
all the same claims before.

No, I'm saying that I'll believe it when I see it.

I suspect that Ordover will continue to poo-poo the efforts whether or
not they succeed unless someone can actually demonstrate something
that makes money.

Mike Walsh


Depends on whether your goal is to win the X-Prize or to have regular
space travel. I mean, I don't see many Gossamer Condors or Gossamer
Albatrosses flying down the street.

Well, I agree,but my point is that the survey was conducted rigorously enough
to paint a realistic picture of the discomfort and expense of space flight.
And still, lots of people were interested.

John Ordover wrote:

I suspect that Ordover will continue to poo-poo the efforts whether or
not they succeed unless someone can actually demonstrate something
that makes money.

Mike Walsh

Depends on whether your goal is to win the X-Prize or to have regular
space travel. I mean, I don't see many Gossamer Condors or Gossamer
Albatrosses flying down the street.

Some of the technology, applied to the electrically driven aircraft,
recently suffered a problem and ended up in the ocean off one
of the Hawaiian islands.

What do you mean by regular space travel?

You seem to be proving my point that if someone does win the
X-prize you will shift the ground of your comments since your
inital remarks can easily be interpretted as a claim that no one
will either win the X-Prize or produce a vehicle that can accomplish
the goals set for it.

OK, this is just a comment on your argument procedure.

Mike Walsh

On Fri, 22 Aug 2003 02:06:36 GMT, in a place far, far away, Michael
Walsh made the phosphor on my monitor glow in
such a way as to indicate that:

The basic problem I see with claiming that test flights have been made
is that so far no rocket powered test flights have been accomplished.

What's the EZ-Rocket, chopped liver?

--
simberg.interglobal.org * 310 372-7963 (CA) 307 739-1296 (Jackson Hole)
interglobal space lines * 307 733-1715 (Fax) http://www.interglobal.org

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