The Collins factor

OK, here's an Apollo what-if that's been discussed somewhat, but I
figured I would try and state it clearly.

What if Mike Collins had never suffered from a bad neck vertebrae and
never been replaced on his original Apollo crew? The assumption is that
*everything* else had occurred as it really did -- Apollo 13 and all.

1) Apollo 8 would have been crewed by Borman, Anders and Collins.

2) The Apollo 10 backup crew would have been Cooper, Eisele and Haise.
Fred was in line just ahead of Ed Mitchell, and if he had not been
pressed into service on the Apollo 8 backup crew, he would have been on
the next available crew, which would have been the Apollo 10 backup crew.

3) Apollo 11 would have been flown by Armstrong, Aldrin and Lovell.

4) While Collins was able to turn Deke down when approached for the
backup CDR job on Apollo 14, I doubt Mike would have been able to turn
Deke down if offered the job of backing up Neil Armstrong on Apollo 11.
So, the backup crew for Apollo 11 would likely have been Collins, Anders
and Mitchell. Anders would have bowed out late in the game, with Ken
Mattingly becoming the de-facto backup CMP by the time of the flight.

5) Jim Lovell would have been offered the backup CDR slot on Apollo 14.
Unlike Collins, Lovell would have taken the job.

6) Apollo 13 would probably have been flown by Collins, Swigert and
Mitchell. Mattingly would have ended up getting bumped by the measles
scare, and remember, Haise would have been the slot Mitchell occupied in
our timeline. (I'm thinking that, after backing up Armstrong on Apollo
11, Collins would have been willing to go on through prime crew training
for his own landing mission. And would have ended up getting screwed
over by the luck of the draw, and by George Mueller insisting that Al
Shepard needed more training time than he would get by flying 13.)

7) Apollo 14 would have been flown by Shepard, Roosa and Haise. Fred
would have gotten his moonwalk.

8) Apollo 17 would have been flown by Lovell, Schmitt and Evans. Gene
Cernan, in insisting upon trying for his own command, would have gambled
away his only chance at walking on the moon.

So, none of the really important milestones would have changed. But Jim
Lovell would have been the last guy to walk on the moon, and Gene Cernan
would have been lucky to get a Skylab seat. Or maybe command of ASTP, a
far cry from the landing mission he wanted.

I sort of wish it had worked out that way -- though it would have been a
tough thing for Collins, to end up with Apollo 13. Truthfully, I REALLY
wish that things had gone the way they actually did, up to where Collins
turned Deke down. I would have LOVED to have read Collins' descriptions
of commanding Apollo 17. He is the best writer of all of the Apollo
astronauts, and would have really brought the experience home.

--

Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn
thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup |

"Doug..." wrote in message
...
OK, here's an Apollo what-if that's been discussed somewhat, but I
figured I would try and state it clearly.

What if Mike Collins had never suffered from a bad neck vertebrae and
never been replaced on his original Apollo crew? The assumption is that
*everything* else had occurred as it really did -- Apollo 13 and all.

6) Apollo 13 would probably have been flown by Collins, Swigert and
Mitchell. Mattingly would have ended up getting bumped by the measles
scare, and remember, Haise would have been the slot Mitchell occupied in
our timeline. (I'm thinking that, after backing up Armstrong on Apollo
11, Collins would have been willing to go on through prime crew training
for his own landing mission. And would have ended up getting screwed
over by the luck of the draw, and by George Mueller insisting that Al
Shepard needed more training time than he would get by flying 13.)

Okay, if Mike Collins was the Commander for Apollo 13 - then he would have
the
opportunity to veto the flight - based on 2 criteria:
Mattingly measles AND changeout of the Oxygen #2 tank in the Service Module
based on the fill/drain problem (the tank that exploded in route).
Jim Lovell talks about this in his book "Lost Moon" (Apollo 13).

It really comes down to what would Mike have accepted for risk?
I think an interesting view is that Mike served under 2 CDRs -
John Young on Gemini 10 and Borman on Apollo 8 - that were different in
their
approaches to risk than other CDR.

I sort of wish it had worked out that way -- though it would have been a
tough thing for Collins, to end up with Apollo 13. Truthfully, I REALLY
wish that things had gone the way they actually did, up to where Collins
turned Deke down. I would have LOVED to have read Collins' descriptions
of commanding Apollo 17. He is the best writer of all of the Apollo
astronauts, and would have really brought the experience home.

IF Mike would have retired after Apollo 13 (as Lovell did),
is another interesting thread.

GB
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Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn
thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup |

4) While Collins was able to turn Deke down when approached for the
backup CDR job on Apollo 14, I doubt Mike would have been able to turn
Deke down if offered the job of backing up Neil Armstrong on Apollo 11.

I hadn't considered this one...if Collins had flown Apollo 8, he was probably
the best qualified guy to land the backup slot on Apollo 11 and that would be a
tough job to turn down. What other alternatives could there have been? Jim
McDivitt or Dave Scott possibly?

8) Apollo 17 would have been flown by Lovell, Schmitt and Evans. Gene
Cernan, in insisting upon trying for his own command, would have gambled
away his only chance at walking on the moon.

I dunno if this is the case here. Cernan admits in his own book that had he
known that Michael Collins was Slayton's first choice for backing up 14 and
commanding 17 he would have re-considered his odds.

Cernan probably should have known he'd have pretty much no chance of being
selected over Jim Lovell (on experience, seniority, etc).

-A.L.

In message , Doug...
writes

I sort of wish it had worked out that way -- though it would have been a
tough thing for Collins, to end up with Apollo 13.

I'm probably missing the point, but would it have been any more tough
than being the forgotten man of the first moon landing flight?
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In article ,
says...
4) While Collins was able to turn Deke down when approached for the
backup CDR job on Apollo 14, I doubt Mike would have been able to turn
Deke down if offered the job of backing up Neil Armstrong on Apollo 11.

I hadn't considered this one...if Collins had flown Apollo 8, he was probably
the best qualified guy to land the backup slot on Apollo 11 and that would be a
tough job to turn down. What other alternatives could there have been? Jim
McDivitt or Dave Scott possibly?

Not enough time. Apollo 11 began its training cycle in January of 1969.
The only crews with Apollo flight experience at that point were the
Apollo 7 and 8 crews. I seriously doubt that Deke was going to offer the
BCDR slot on the first landing flight to Eisele, Cunningham or Anders,
and Schirra and Borman were retired by the time the crew decisions were
made. Had Collins flown on Apollo 8, he would have been the *only* good
choice for Apollo 11 BCDR, I think. Especially the way Deke seemed to
have done things.

Had Collins turned down the Apollo 11 BCDR job, the *only* other person I
can imagine that Deke could have tapped for the job would have been Al
Shepard. Al was back on flight status by then, and while Washington
migft have balked, and Shepard might have agitated against serving on a
backup crew, it's the only other option I can see Deke considering.

But I don't think Mike would have turned that job down. Deke would have
pushed on him harder than he did for the Apollo 14 BCDR job, since it's
the first landing flight we're talking about, here. And that is the kind
of position that it's just hard to turn down -- especially if your boss,
whom you respect highly, is telling you that your country NEEDS you to do
the job.

8) Apollo 17 would have been flown by Lovell, Schmitt and Evans. Gene
Cernan, in insisting upon trying for his own command, would have gambled
away his only chance at walking on the moon.

I dunno if this is the case here. Cernan admits in his own book that had he
known that Michael Collins was Slayton's first choice for backing up 14 and
commanding 17 he would have re-considered his odds.

Cernan probably should have known he'd have pretty much no chance of being
selected over Jim Lovell (on experience, seniority, etc).

True -- but since Geno had no clue that Deke was considering others over
him, since his decision was made when the program was still planned to
continue on to Apollo 20, and since Geno's ego was big enough that he
REALLY thought that he was too good to fly right seat again, I really
don't think he would have accepted the Apollo 13 BLMP position. He would
have held out for command of Apollo 18, 19 or 20. (Note that Geno wasn't
the only guy who refused an LMP slot -- Jim McDivitt was offered the LMP
slot on Shepard's crew, and he not only turned it down, he was insulted
by the offer.)

And so, Geno would have ended up in Dick Gordon's position, at best --
watching his mission go away due to budget cuts. Or, at worst, would
never even have been offered a BCDR slot. (My best guess is that, if the
program had extended out to Apollo 19 or 20 and if Collins had accepted
the Apollo 14 BCDR slot, the best shot Geno had would have been Apollo 16
BCDR, rotating up to Apollo 19 CDR. And since that flight would likely
never have occurred, Geno would have been SOL.)

--

Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn
thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup |

In article ,
says...
In message , Doug...
writes

I sort of wish it had worked out that way -- though it would have been a
tough thing for Collins, to end up with Apollo 13.

I'm probably missing the point, but would it have been any more tough
than being the forgotten man of the first moon landing flight?

Ah, but Mike was completely satisfied with his seat on Apollo 11. And
the flight went off exactly as planned. That has to be a lot more
satisfying than training to land on the moon and then struggling just to
survive, watching the moon slip through your fingers while your crippled
ship sailed on by, no longer capable of delivering you to your
destination.)

I also say that Apollo 13 would have been difficult for Collins because
he was the self-avowed least mechanically inclined guy in the astronaut
corps. It would be that much harder for him to have to deal with a
spacecraft that suddenly went dead 205,000 miles away from home...

--

Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn
thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup |

Doug... wrote:
But I don't think Mike would have turned that job down. Deke would have
pushed on him harder than he did for the Apollo 14 BCDR job, since it's
the first landing flight we're talking about, here.

Nit: First landing *attempt*. That it would in fact be the first
landing was not known until the contact light lit.

D.
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In article ,
says...
Doug... wrote:
But I don't think Mike would have turned that job down. Deke would have
pushed on him harder than he did for the Apollo 14 BCDR job, since it's
the first landing flight we're talking about, here.

Nit: First landing *attempt*. That it would in fact be the first
landing was not known until the contact light lit.

Very true. But even as the first landing attempt, Apollo 11 was from the
start acknowledged as "it," the flight every guy in the corps had been
angling for since Kennedy threw down the gauntlet. Everyone knew that
Apollos 9 and 10 might have failed, requiring a repeat, and everyone knew
that there was no guarantee that the first landing attempt would succeed.
But that group of egos was big enough that anyone who had *any* chance of
flying Apollo 11 was certain that, if it was *not* the first landing, it
wouldn't fail because *he* screwed up.

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Do not meddle in the affairs of dragons, for | Doug Van Dorn
thou art crunchy and taste good with ketchup |

Homer J. Fong wrote:

Are there any other astronauts aside from Mike Collins that don't use
ghostwriters to assist them with their books? Every book he writes, he
does so on his own, whereas others always have "With Joe Schmo"
attached to the credits.

One of the "Schmo"s posts here -- perhaps he can answer
this question -- assuming he doesn't mind being categorized
as a "Schmo". :-)

"Doug..." wrote in message
...

Very true. But even as the first landing attempt, Apollo 11 was from the
start acknowledged as "it," the flight every guy in the corps had been
angling for since Kennedy threw down the gauntlet. Everyone knew that
Apollos 9 and 10 might have failed, requiring a repeat, and everyone knew
that there was no guarantee that the first landing attempt would succeed.
But that group of egos was big enough that anyone who had *any* chance of
flying Apollo 11 was certain that, if it was *not* the first landing, it
wouldn't fail because *he* screwed up.


I've always understood that prior to 9 & 10s success most of the guys were
looking at 12 as the highly likely first landing attempt. Almost everybody
believed that 8, 9 and 10 would have enough unfulfilled objectives to make
11 another rehearsal.

v/r
Ward