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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
OK, it's official. NASA has owned up to the claim by GAO that there
is no way they can have first flight of SLS/Orion in 2018, whether it is manned or not. NASA had been claiming that first flight would be in November of 2018. However, they've now agreed that that is simply going to be impossible. The ESA Service Module won't deliver until at least August of this year and it will take a full year of integration and test once it delivers before a complete Orion vehicle can be delivered for SLS integration. They require at least four months of vehicle integration at the Cape after they receive a complete Orion vehicle. So even if the other schedule challenges (ground infrastructure, mission support) evaporate, EM-1 won't launch until first quarter 2019. In actuality, NASA is not going to set a new schedule until this September (at which point they'll know whether ESA met the August delivery date). Issues are even larger for a manned mission. I read recently that NASA has a space suit problem (as in they don't have any that are suitable). NASA currently has eleven working space suits, four of which are on ISS and the rest of which are used to support those four with test and such. After several hundred million dollars spent, NASA has no follow-on suits. They trying to build something out of old Space Shuttle suits to cover things in the interim. Is this any way to run a high tech effort? This sounds like what I've seen on all too many projects, where no one wants to admit to needing a slide until they absolutely cannot avoid it and then they take the minimum slide possible. What this means is nobody else can adjust their development to a new longer schedule, so things get taken out to make schedule then there isn't time to put them back when the slide becomes official, so you get a death spiral of a thousand small cuts. -- "We come into the world and take our chances. Fate is just the weight of circumstances. That's the way that Lady Luck dances. Roll the bones...." -- "Roll The Bones", Rush |
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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
JF Mezei wrote:
On 2017-04-28 07:54, Fred J. McCall wrote: OK, it's official. NASA has owned up to the claim by GAO that there is no way they can have first flight of SLS/Orion in 2018, whether it is manned or not. Oh my God ! Nobody saw that coming. What a surprise ! I sometimes wonder if you would see a train coming in a tunnel. If the first flight is sufficiently delayed, doesn't that incrtease the odds that it might be manned? Why would it? If you're going to take a slide, the last thing you want to do is make it even bigger and higher risk, which is what flying EM-1 manned would do. I'd say it LOWERS the odds that it will be manned. NASA may have been smart is dicussing "first flight may be manned" ahead of admitting first flight is to be delayed. This makes it easier to swallow if first flight will be more if delatyed than if it were on-time. NASA didn't do that. NASA was ORDERED to EVALUATE THE POSSIBILITY by the White House. You don't recover schedule by adding new big requirements to a test flight, which is what you're proposing. You recover schedule by DROPPING requirements and capabilities and pushing them out to later tests. Think about it. They're not even going to reevaluate the schedule for almost half a year. That mean everyone is working toward ... what date? You got the "after several hundred million dollars NASA has no space suits", right? -- "Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar territory." --G. Behn |
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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
JF Mezei wrote:
On 2017-04-29 03:47, Fred J. McCall wrote: Why would it? If you're going to take a slide, the last thing you want to do is make it even bigger and higher risk, which is what flying EM-1 manned would do. I'd say it LOWERS the odds that it will be manned. Consider 2 separate development tracks: one for the ship, one for the manned portion (Capsule interiors, ECLSS etc). Consider Pure ****ing Magic (PFM), because engineering development and integration efforts don't quite work like that. Ship portion is late, but manned portion is on time. So what if the manned portion ends up being ready by the time the ship portion finally gets ready ? If ship was initially supposed to be ready 2 years ahead of manned, but there is a 2 year delay with the ship, then by the time the ship is ready, the manned portion woudl also be ready. Then your schedule slides because all your integration and test slides to the end of the longest component. Now, if both tracks are late, then things remain as originally planned since ship, despite delays, is still ready before manned. No, they don't do that at all. Everything has slid. The order things are done in has probably changed. Requirements have been dropped in order to try to make schedule (not added). EM-1 will not be manned unless it slides out to 2021, about where EM-2 is currently scheduled. So you can have EM-1 unmanned if you slide to 2019 and adding the manned requirement adds at least another two year slide. -- "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong." -- Thomas Jefferson |
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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
JF Mezei wrote:
On 2017-04-29 08:59, Jeff Findley wrote: Absolutely not. It would take far longer to certify the upper stage and put all the ground infrastructure in place needed for manned flights. So they build a whole brand spanking new rocket system to send people to nowhere and it isn't designed to be man-rated from the get go, so they intend to build a version and then change the designs to make it man rated? You're an idiot. Do you not know what 'certify' means? It doesn't matter whether it was "designed to be man-rated" or not. You still have to actually do the work to man-rate it. If that is truly the case, the contractors are smarter than I thought (at convincing govt to spend money over far more years than necessary). No, the issue is that you are far stupider than it is reasonable to think you should be. This "idea" almost certainly came from clueless people in Trump's administration. Didn't the seeds for first flight being manned come before jan 20th? No. NASA announced it was going to study it in mid-February. snip rationale to explain something that never happened -- "Ignorance is preferable to error, and he is less remote from the truth who believes nothing than he who believes what is wrong." -- Thomas Jefferson |
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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
JF Mezei wrote:
On 2017-04-29 22:50, Jeff Findley wrote: The first flight will use an Interim Upper Stage derived from Delta IV (I believe). It's not the stage intended to be used for any manned launches. Ok, so that is a show stopper for first flight being manned. Also the whole "we have no space suits" thing. Also the "we don't have the required Deep Space communications or support networks in place. Also the whole "the ground facilities aren't set up to launch people right now" thing. I'm sure there are lots more, but any one of those ought to be enough for you. How late is the man-rated second stage? Is that the critical item that will end up delying manned flight? They won't have space suits until around 5 months before EM-2 is scheduled. For the first flight, the capsule will be the only habitable volume, right? no attached pressurized module for extra space? What difference does that make? Are Orion and the european service modules going well from a schedule point of view? (or is the service module the second stage?) Everybody is playing Schedule Chicken right now. Yea, no, that's not what happened. NASA management is sometimes clueless, but they surely had some idea of how big of a delay a manned EM-1 would cause. But they would know the "fresh out of poolitical grade school" new admin was very impulsive but gullible. So instead of announcing just a delay that might get Trump to kill NASA on impulse, they announce that by adding a small delay, they can do a first flight manned. Except they can't and they know they can't, so your way of thinking essentially has them committing suicide by lying to the President of the United States. It sugar coats the bad news to reduce risk of negative fallout. And it seems to have worked because not only has NASA escape big cuts, but Trump has, on a number of occasions spoken highly of NASA. You keep coming up with rationalizations to explain events that didn't happen in the order you're trying to explain. NASA knows they won't have space suits until 2021. -- "Some people get lost in thought because it's such unfamiliar territory." --G. Behn |
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NASA Announces SLS/Orion Flight Slide
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